At current rates of deforestation, civilization will collapse in 20-40 years
Preface. At current rates of deforestation, forests will be gone in 100-200 years. Long before that, in 20-40 years, the effects will be felt, with a 90% chance of civilization collapse likely.
Since it looks like world conventional oil peaked in 2018, I’m putting my money on energy decline as the civilization crasher, but the Limits to Growth model and Rockstrom’s (2009) paper (Planetary boundaries: exploring the safe operating space for humanity) of nine existential crises facing us makes my peak oil bet a bit less certain. Though with oil we can fend off and delay the other threats for a while. Destroyed the topsoil? Then grow food in vertical farms. Out of water? Drill down 1,000+ feet, and so on.
Below are excerpts from an article by Nafeez Ahmed, who is summarizing the findings of: Bologna M, et al. 2020. Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis. Nature Scientific reports.
Alice Friedemann www.energyskeptic.com author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts: Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity , XX2 report
***
Two theoretical physicists specializing in complex systems conclude that global deforestation due to human activities is on track to trigger the “irreversible collapse” of human civilization within the next two to four decades.
If we continue destroying and degrading the world’s forests, Earth will no longer be able to sustain a large human population, according to a peer-reviewed paper published this May in Nature Scientific Reports. They say that if the rate of deforestation continues, “all the forests would disappear approximately in 100–200 years.”
“Clearly it is unrealistic to imagine that the human society would start to be affected by the deforestation only when the last tree would be cut down,” they write.
This trajectory would make the collapse of human civilization take place much earlier due to the escalating impacts of deforestation on the planetary life-support systems necessary for human survival—including carbon storage, oxygen production, soil conservation, water cycle regulation, support for natural and human food systems, and homes for countless species.
In the absence of these critical services, “it is highly unlikely to imagine the survival of many species, including ours, on Earth without [forests]” the study points out. “The progressive degradation of the environment due to deforestation would heavily affect human society and consequently the human collapse would start much earlier.”
Tracking the current rate of population growth against the rate of deforestation, the authors found that “statistically the probability to survive without facing a catastrophic collapse, is very low.” Its best case scenario is that we have a less than 10 percent chance of avoiding collapse.
The underlying driver of the current collapse trajectory is that “consumption of the planetary resources may be not perceived as strongly as a mortal danger for the human civilization”, because it is “driven by Economy”. Such a civilization “privileges the interest of its components with less or no concern for the whole ecosystem that hosts them.”
The most effective way to increase our chances of survival is to shift focus from extreme self-interest to a sense of stewardship for each other, other species, and the ecosystems in which we find ourselves.
Key findings:
- There are no signs that the annual rate of forest loss is slowing.
- Only 8% of 250 “powerbroker” corporations—and less than 1% of the 150 leading lenders and investors in agricultural companies—have polices in place to eliminate or reduce deforestation.
- Deforestation accounts for about 10 percent of global man-made emissions through the razing and burning of trees. Because tropical forests are potent carbon sponges, stopping deforestation—and allowing damaged forests to recover—could deliver as much as 40 percent of the emissions cuts needed to keep global warming to 2 degrees Celsius.
The New York Declaration on Forests was supposed to help halve forest loss by 2020, but an initial assessment published last week by the Amsterdam-based consulting company Climate Focus along with a group of non-governmental organizations said deforestation has not slowed in the countries that signed the pact. Very few of the world’s leading companies whose practices drive deforestation have changed their policies to begin to tackle the issue, according to a separate report published last week by the Global Canopy Programme.
The declaration was signed in September 2014 by 52 companies—including Unilever, Walmart and General Mills—as well as more than 30 countries and 100-plus subnational governments, indigenous groups and non-governmental organizations. They committed to 10 goals, meant to cut the world’s forest loss in half by 2020 and end it by 2030. The declaration was notable for its ambitious targets and rare collaboration among countries and corporations, and for tackling the root causes of deforestation, primarily corporate agriculture practices. The majority of tropical forest loss and degradation is driven by the production of only six commodities: palm oil, soy, beef, leather, timber, and pulp and paper.
Cutting the rate of deforestation in half, the goal of the New York declaration, would require $20 to $30 billion a year, significantly more than current pledges, which remain less than $10 billion a year, according to Boucher of the UCS.
energyskeptic.com/2020/deforestation-continues-despite-forests-being-the-best-way-to-keep-warming-below-2-degrees-celsius/
jawagord on Sun, 3rd Jan 2021 2:54 pm
Apparently they haven’t heard of Justin’s promise(s) to plant billions of trees!
“Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promised during the 2019 election campaign his government would plant two billion trees over a decade. The Liberals’ pledge is on top of the roughly 600 million trees that are already planted each year in Canada.
As of November 2020, the program hadn’t yet been funded and no trees had been planted. During Monday’s announcement, O’Regan said the delay was the result of a complicated planning process and the COVID-19 pandemic.”
FamousDrScanlon on Sun, 3rd Jan 2021 4:14 pm
The sinks are about to overflow….
Amazon, African forests turning from CO2 sink to source: study
“Tropical forests provide humans with medicine, food, shelter and water and currently account for around half of all terrestrial carbon absorption.
But they are rapidly getting saturated as manmade emissions continue to climb year on year.
Forests act as a carbon sink when the amount of carbon retrieved through photosynthesis outweighs that emitted by tree loss — be that through fire, drought or deforestation.”
https://news.yahoo.com/amazon-african-forests-turning-co2-sink-source-study-160010543.html
FamousDrScanlon on Sun, 3rd Jan 2021 4:31 pm
The only thing new under the Sun is the scale.
The humans went from regional cancers to a fossil fueled Planetary MegaCancer.
Fires set by Ice Age hunters destroyed forests throughout Europe
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/12/161201092823.htm
“The destruction of the natural world is not the result of global capitalism, industrialisation, ‘Western civilisation’ or any flaw in human institutions. It is a consequence of the evolutionary success of an exceptionally rapacious primate. Throughout all of history and prehistory, human advance has coincided with ecological devastation.”
― John Gray, Straw Dogs: Thoughts On Humans And Other Animals
FamousDrScanlon on Sun, 3rd Jan 2021 4:36 pm
Origins & History of Deforestation
“We give a brief history of deforestation around the world, beginning with the Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse of prehistory. We cover the exploitation of forests by early civilizations like the Greeks and Romans, before examining deforestation in the modern world. We ask: what can history teach us about the causes of present-day forest degradation? Without doubt, population growth and poverty are two key drivers, although commercial greed is always lurking in the undergrowth.”
https://nomoreplanet.com/history-of-deforestation/
Greed is a human construct. The universe doesn’t do morality.
Greed = The Maximum Power Principle in action.
makati1 on Sun, 3rd Jan 2021 6:00 pm
The cycle of life only means that humans may not be part of it in the coming centuries. In the “eyes” of nature, humans are no different than any other life form. If we are stupid/greedy enough to commit species suicide, so be it.
Duncan Idaho on Sun, 3rd Jan 2021 7:51 pm
You know, at this point I’d almost rather have a literal mob boss as president. At least they occasionally have some honor.
The Fat Boy embarrasses them.
FamousDrScanlon on Sun, 3rd Jan 2021 8:29 pm
America’s history of luck Is running out
The country’s rise was fueled by fortunate circumstances that seem unlikely to last much longer
“America’s history of luck Is running out
The country’s rise was fueled by fortunate circumstances that seem unlikely to last much longer
A woman fills out a Mega Millions lottery ticket on October 19, 2018 in New York City. PHOTO: Foreign Policy/Getty Images
The United States is the luckiest country in modern history. It began as a set of marginal European outposts, separated from the settlers’ home countries by a difficult sea voyage. When the colonies gained independence, they were weak, poor, and fractious. But in less than a century and a half, those 13 original colonies had expanded across North America, survived a civil war, driven other great powers from the Western Hemisphere, and created the world’s largest and most dynamic economy. That ascent didn’t stop until the end of the 20th century, when victory in the Cold War left the United States alone at the pinnacle of power. For a little while.
Americans like to attribute this remarkable story to their ancestors’ virtues, the enlightened wisdom of the Founding Fathers, and the intrinsic merits of America’s peculiar blend of liberal democratic capitalism. But in addition to the considerable cruelty displayed toward the native population and the slaves imported from Africa, good fortune played a major role as well.
Americans were fortunate that North America was rich with natural resources and fertile land, traversed by navigable rivers, and had a mostly temperate climate. And from the very beginning, the United States benefited from rivalries among the existing great powers. France backed the American Revolution in order to weaken its British rival, and the new nation doubled its territory when Napoleon needed money to wage war in Europe and was willing to sell the Louisiana Purchase at a bargain price. War in Europe also helped the United States survive its foolish decision to invade Canada in the War of 1812; Britain was too busy defeating Napoleon to turn its full strength against its obnoxious former colonists. The United States gradually attracted more attention as it expanded across the continent and took Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California from Mexico, but the European powers spent most of the time competing with each other and for the most part left the United States alone. By 1900, British concerns about a rising Germany led them to abandon their territorial claims in the Pacific Northwest and South America and appease the United States. And at that moment, the Monroe Doctrine of 1823 became a reality.
Indeed, no other great power has enjoyed the so-called free security that America has possessed since its founding. Apart from Britain, every other major power has been invaded at least once in the past 200 years, and several of them have been conquered and at least temporarily occupied. Even Britain lost some 50,000 civilians to German bombings during World War II. Foreign troops last occupied U.S. soil during the War of 1812, and the continental United States was effectively unscathed during the two world wars that decimated Europe and Asia during the 20th century. That free security also permitted the United States to be the last major power to enter both wars, to suffer the fewest losses, and to emerge in a dominant position when the fighting stopped.”
https://tbsnews.net/feature/panorama/americas-history-luck-running-out-176563
Duncan Idaho on Mon, 4th Jan 2021 10:56 am
In 2021, the Best Way to Fight Neofascist Republicans Is to Fight Neoliberal Democrats
Biden's hairplug on Mon, 4th Jan 2021 3:43 pm
Lord Heseltine predicts breakup UK:
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=heseltine&sp=CAI%253D
DT on Mon, 4th Jan 2021 3:55 pm
This article pointing out forest loss is only a part of the problem. The ocean provides (or did) 40% of the earths oxygen from phytoplankton. Humans have changed the chemical makeup of the oceans so severely that the loss of phytoplankton will ensure the end of life on earth as we know it. Nice know’in ya, see ya round………….
Biden's hairplug on Mon, 4th Jan 2021 4:35 pm
Kunstler predicts CW + external war
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/giving-up-the-ghost/
Duncan Idaho on Thu, 7th Jan 2021 11:44 am
13 More Days Is 13 Too Many?
Come now wingpawns, what do you think?
Duncan Idaho on Thu, 7th Jan 2021 11:54 am
Repugs are shocked, I tell you.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/1/7/2006665/-Republicans-are-shocked-I-tell-you
LOL!
FamousDrScanlon on Fri, 8th Jan 2021 12:22 am
The fractal biology of plague and the future of civilization
“Abstract
At the time of writing, the CoViD-19 pandemic was in its second wave with infections doubling every several days to two weeks in many parts of the world. Such geometric (or exponential) expansion is the hallmark of unconstrained population growth in all species ranging from sub-microscopic viral particles through bacteria to whales and humans; this suggests a kind of ‘fractal geometry’ in bio-reproductive patterns. In nature, population outbreaks are invariably reversed by the onset of both endogenous and exogenous negative feedback—reduced fecundity, resource shortages, spatial competition, disease, etc., serve to restore the reference population to below carrying capacity, sometimes by dramatic collapse. H. sapiens is no exception — our species is nearing the peak of a fossil-fueled ~200 year plague-like population outbreak that is beginning to trigger serious manifestations of negative feedback, including climate change and CoViD-19 itself. The human population will decline dramatically; theoretically, we can choose between a chaotic collapse imposed by nature or international cooperation to plan a managed, equitable contraction of the human enterprise.”
https://jpopsus.org/full_articles/the-fractal-biology-of-plague-and-the-future-of-civilization/
FamousDrScanlon on Fri, 8th Jan 2021 12:26 am
Is the Collapse of Civilization Inevitable?
Like human beings, who are born, go through different phases, and eventually die, maybe human cultures too follow a trajectory that ends in their collapse. History is filled with great civilizations that have collapsed. Maybe all of them do eventually. But what is the cause?
“Joseph Tainter’s View of Civilizational Collapse
American anthropologist Joseph Tainter explores cataclysmic views about civilizations and categorizes them into 12 basic explanations for why societies collapse. Eleven of them, he says, are wrong. The twelfth view is the one he has developed. Looking at the fall of the Roman Empire, the fall of the Western Chou Empire, the fall of Egyptian Old Kingdom, the fall of the Minoan civilization, the fall of the Olmec, the fall of the Mayans, not to mention the fall of the Mycenaean civilization, we see some interesting trends emerge.
It’s not that Malthus was right and cultures out-produced their resources. It’s not that catastrophes––like the meteor that doomed the dinosaurs––also wipe out society. It’s not that they fail to rise to circumstantial challenges they face or are replaced by more complex societies. They’re not destroyed by intruders from outside or conflict and mismanagement from inside. No, Tainter argues; it’s that they sputter and die from a lack of energy.”
https://www.thegreatcoursesdaily.com/is-the-collapse-of-civilization-inevitable/
FamousDrScanlon on Fri, 8th Jan 2021 12:27 am
Climate change causes collapse of Angkor civilization
“The late professor of geography at Yale University Ellsworth Huntington focused on the fact that many large countries in the past either prospered or perished depending on how advantageous or disadvantageous climate conditions were. Indeed, climate change was the cause of the prosperity or collapse of civilizations. For example, the Mesopotamia civilization, which is the first civilization in human history. As city states, such as Uruk founded by Sumer, began to emerge, a civilization was born and the region was unified by the Akkadian Empire. However, a severe drought continued for about 300 years from 2200 B.C. with the temperature dropping by two degrees Celsius. A drought and an average temperature drop of two degrees Celsius are critical to the growth of crops. Once its economy collapsed, the Akkadian Empire had no choice but to disappear into the mists of history.”
https://www.donga.com/en/article/all/20201219/2312113/1/Climate-change-causes-collapse-of-Angkor-civilization
Cloggie on Fri, 8th Jan 2021 10:50 am
Canadian Eavor developed radical new geothermal concept: underground heat exchanger
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2021/01/06/eavor-geothermal/
FamousDrScanlon on Fri, 8th Jan 2021 1:54 pm
clog, “…if all goes well will be operational by 2022”
clog’s hope springs eternal.
Well, if it does work I won’t be surprised. Canada produces many clever monkeys.
Depending on your point of view, the worst or best Canadian invention/discovery was insulin.
The population would be smaller & healthier without it.
Insulin: The Canadian discovery that has saved millions of lives
Insulin forever changed what it meant to be diagnosed with diabetes. André Picard looks at one of medicine’s most significant advances, and the researchers – two recognized with a Nobel Prize and two more overlooked – who chose to never make a profit from their miracle drug
“That drug, renamed insulin, forever changed the lives of people with diabetes. It is one of the great medical discoveries of all times, a Canadian innovation that has saved millions of lives.
Before insulin, children with juvenile diabetes (now called Type 1) lived only 1.4 years on average after diagnosis. Adults fared only slightly better: One in five lived 10 years after diagnosis, but with severe complications such as blindness, kidney failure, stroke, heart attack and the necessity to amputate limbs.
Today, people with Type 1 diabetes have an almost normal life expectancy.”
“Amazingly, the researchers did not profit financially from their discovery. Rather, they sold the patent to the University of Toronto for $1, saying no one should profit from a lifesaving medication.
To this day, insulin remains a remarkably cheap drug. In Canada, it costs between three and six cents per unit, and a person with Type 1 diabetes would typically use 40 units daily, or about $1.20 worth. (In the U.S., where drug prices are not regulated like Canada, insulin costs have been soaring so that a U.S. patient can pay 10 times as much as a Canadian.) “I’ve been watching with horror the U.S. experience with insulin,” Dr. Hux says.”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/canada-150/insulin-the-canadian-discovery-that-has-saved-millions-of-lives/article35537847/
Cloggie on Mon, 11th Jan 2021 5:53 am
A new approach to sustainable living: Finch Buildings.
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2021/01/11/finch-buildings/
A wooden finch building stores typically 500 ton of CO2, where a similar concrete building would release 500 ton of CO2 into the atmosphere as embedded energy.
Cloggie on Tue, 12th Jan 2021 2:36 am
Mr. Kunstler will like this video channel about suburbia and “strong towns”:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IsMeKl-Sv0
Sometimes, pictures can be more incisive than words.
apneaman on Tue, 12th Jan 2021 3:58 am
The Trump cancer continues to metastasize..
T-R-U-M-P in large block letters was cruelly carved into the back of a critically endangered Florida Manatee over the weekend.
State and federal wildlife authorities are actively investigating the perp(s) of this serious crime.
Go Speed Racer on Tue, 12th Jan 2021 8:25 am
Forests are way over-rated.
A nice black asphalt parking lot
is way better than a forest.
you can’t park your car in a forest
and there aren’t any big box stores
to shop in either.
What if you need some electricity?
There are no electric outlets on
those old-growth tree trunks.
Forests are so undesirable we should
have only black asphalt parking lots.
This would make the continents appear
black in satellite photos, but what a
wonderful world it would be.
Think about it. Right now we have roads
that you have to turn the steering wheel
to follow the road.
BUT if we get rid of all forests, and
blacktop everything, you could drive
in any direction you want, because
everything is blacktop.
This would also be more fuel efficient
because you could drive more
directly to any destination such as a
big box store.
Eliminate forests now !!!
Donate now, operators are
standing by.