Apocalypse by 2040? Shock as MIT computer model predicts END DATE for civilisation

286 Comments on "Apocalypse by 2040? Shock as MIT computer model predicts END DATE for civilisation"

George Straight on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 7:56 am 



Wow, What a coincidence…the same date Short predicated!. Suppose that means we can all relax now.

MASTERMIND on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 8:10 am 



Actually the limits to growth models foretasted a collapse by 2030..Not 2040..

Looking Back on the Limits of Growth – Smithsonian
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/looking-back-on-the-limits-of-growth-125269840/

Jef on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 9:03 am 



The model did not put enough weight on civilizations waste stream. Everything generates waste stream, even the little bit we do to handle our waste stream generates a waste stream.

There is virtually nowhere on earth that hasn’t been touched by pollution and people, plants, and animals are already dying by the millions every year.

boff on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 9:11 am 



1973? It could be time to do it again with better data and better computer.

MASTERMIND on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 10:09 am 



boff

They rechecked the study back in 2000 and wrote a second book about it..And they did another study back in 2014 that rechecked it..

Peer Reviewed Study: Limits to Growth was Right. Research Shows We’re Nearing Global Collapse (Turner, 2014)
https://www.scribd.com/document/379418787/Is-Global-Collapse-Imminent-An-Updated-Comparison-of-The-Limits-to-Growth-with-Historical-Data-Turner-2014

MASTERMIND on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 10:11 am 



Boff

Scientific American: Apocalypse Soon: Has Civilization Passed the Environmental Point of No Return?
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/apocalypse-soon-has-civilization-passed-the-environmental-point-of-no-return/

MASTERMIND on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 10:24 am 



Alex Jones flees to Vimeo, is immediately banned there as well

https://thinkprogress.org/vimeo-banned-alex-jones-5b29ac3141fe/

HAHA!

fmr-paultard on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 10:39 am 



^mm^ i’m a tard and a former paultard. alex was instrumental in electing president paul. i was a huge fan of alex jones and i gave him tons of shekles. the move off youtube is a huge blush because alt-tard media had crashed to the ground level. alt-tard media relies on fresh meat and it means maintaining a presence on MSM sites. without fresh meat, supertards and tards develop alt-tard media fatigue. that’s all to it.

rockman on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 11:15 am 



This a waste of space here. All models are based on a series of ASSUMPTIONS. Posting the results of a model without all those ASSUMPTIONS means nothing. There is no algorithm that can compute the collapse of civilization. The only way to evaluate the results of any model is to evaluate the ASSUMPTIONS used to drive the model.

It would be useful for anyone familiar with the analysis to post all the ASSUMPTIONS used to generate this model. Then we can debate the validity of those ASSUMPTIONS. That is the only way to debate the validity of this model. Or any other model for that matter.

Antius on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 11:41 am 



Time to make arrangemnets to leave folks. While we still can.

http://www.orbitalvector.com/Space%20Structures/Space%20Colonies/Space%20Colonies.htm

dave thompson on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 12:23 pm 



Making and proclaiming a date stamp on where humanity is headed is a fools errand. It is also foolish to not pay attention to the predicament we are in, forget the date it might happen, but make sure you pay attention.

Outcast_Searcher on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 12:25 pm 



So this is the best the doomers have for today? A 45 year old model, and as rockman points out, the idiot article can’t even be bothered to list the assumptions it uses.

boff is right. A good cell phone has more power today than an early 70’s mainframe.

If we’re going to discuss limits to growth, fine. That’s a valid concept — but what are the parameters / assumptions?

MASTERMIND on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 12:52 pm 



Rockman

The models are not based on assumptions..You fucking moron..They are computer simulations.

“The World3 model is a system dynamics model for computer simulation of interactions between population, industrial growth, food production and limits in the ecosystems of the earth. It was originally produced and used by a Club of Rome study that produced the model and the book The Limits to Growth (1972).”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World3

And the limits to growth was the highest selling environmental science book of all time..

MASTERMIND on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 12:55 pm 



Outcast

Peer Reviewed Study: Limits to Growth was Right. Research Shows We’re Nearing Global Collapse (Turner, 2014)

https://www.scribd.com/document/379418787/Is-Global-Collapse-Imminent-An-Updated-Comparison-of-The-Limits-to-Growth-with-Historical-Data-Turner-2014

Looking Back on the Limits of Growth – Smithsonian
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/looking-back-on-the-limits-of-growth-125269840/

Scientific American: Apocalypse Soon: Has Civilization Passed the Environmental Point of No Return?
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/apocalypse-soon-has-civilization-passed-the-environmental-point-of-no-return/

Computer simulation is the reproduction of the behavior of a system using a computer to simulate the outcomes of a mathematical model associated with said system. Since they allow to check the reliability of chosen mathematical models, computer simulations have become a useful tool for the mathematical modeling of many natural systems in physics (computational physics), astrophysics, climatology, chemistry and biology, human systems in economics, psychology, social science, and engineering.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_simulation

MASTERMIND on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 12:57 pm 



Rockman

Why are you so triggered that you have to shout in all capitals? calm down big fella..

MASTERMIND on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 1:00 pm 



OUtcast

You better to back to the forum where you can censor others who are intelligent and use scholarly sources..Don’t you get tired of getting your ass kicked here?

MASTERMIND on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 1:03 pm 



Simple really..when the World Economy Collapses everything shuts down…the end… We’re talking about grids down all over the world and 7.5B people dropping like f*** flies in short order. The collapse will be absolutely horrible..There is no collapse or horror movie ever produced that has even come close to imagining what the collapse of BAU might look like. I’m talking about every corporation and every social program going bankrupt at once. I’m talking about people eating people. I’m talking about the Worst Catastrophe to ever happen in the history of mankind. Nothing has ever, or will ever come close..

https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa

onlooker on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 1:37 pm 



Outcast and other cornies
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/limits-to-growth-was-right-new-research-shows-were-nearing-collapse
Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we’re nearing collapse—-
The operative word new. C’mon, are you really so blind or just in denieal. Look at the fast fading in environment, so many signs, enough to make your head spin. So I am not even going to elaborate on any economic doom. Because last I checked, our lives and Economies are utterly reliant on the Environment. Don’t believe me try holding your breath for awhile

deadly on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 2:47 pm 



Didn’t Paul Ehrlich predict that millions would die of famine during 80s-90s?

“Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make,” Ehrlich said in an often-quoted 1970 Mademoiselle interview. “The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”

Beginning in 1980 add 38 years, according to Paul’s sage prediction, there should be 7,600,000,000 people starved to death since 1980 or all of the people on earth.

We should all be dead by now.

Guess it didn’t happen, yet.

Read more: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/why-didnt-first-earth-days-predictions-come-true-its-complicated-180958820/#f8gK8Jh2kgWRTtAI.99
Give the gift of Smithsonian magazine for only $12! http://bit.ly/1cGUiGv
Follow us: @SmithsonianMag on Twitter

Jerome Purtzer on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 2:52 pm 



I don’’t think you need a computer to tell you which way the wind is blowing. First we’ll have an unprecedented financial meltdown worldwide. Grab the popcorn and pick your seats.

MASTERMIND on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 2:59 pm 



deadly

Paul’s was a prediction..The limits to growth models are not predictions..They are computer simulations..Dr Meadows has been very clear about this point..So you are comparing apples to rocks..

onlooker on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 3:23 pm 



And Deadly didn’t read that the projections of LTG are tracking worse case scenarios ie COLLAPSE duh

MASTERMIND on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 3:51 pm 



In nature, the over – extension of a population upon a resource which diminishes is well known, and the results tend to be disastrous.

-Youngquist

MASTERMIND on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 4:09 pm 



Italy could ‘sink like TITANIC’ warn banks in DOOMSDAY economic warning

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1002731/italy-news-economy-eurosceptic-five-star-citi-barclays-credit-suisse-report

See there problems have nothing to do with migrants..The far right is just using them as scapegoats..Enjoy the collapse Five star movement..I hope they burn you fuckers on a stake..

MASTERMIND on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 4:27 pm 



Limits to growth had 12 models. One of those models, the “standard run” or, alternatively, the “business as usual” model, was the one that 30 years of historical data tracked/followed.

deadly on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 5:08 pm 



One model for each of the Twelve Tribes? lol

I understand the limits to growth. It happens every year, spring growth is just beginning, summertime growth is phenomenal, in autumn you harvest and store it for the winter. The abundance will help.

The growth ends each year and begins anew each new year.

The only limit to growth is not enough, too much is still not enough, flip flop, it never stops, the limits to growth.

That’s what Chicken Little does, runs around shouting the sky is falling while the Little Red Hen plants and harvests her bounty. The rest of the lazy bums in the barnyard can starve. Too selfish and greedy to lend a helping hand to anybody. Fend for yourself, don’t count on me.

It is all in the perception. I’ll maintain my idiocy and accept limits to growth each and every year, day by day. Come Fall, it will be evident, the limit will be met.

During winter, the limits to growth are severely constrained.

I’ll take reality over everything else.

Harquebus on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 6:09 pm 



Something that I came across the other day. An Australian television news article from that time.

1973 computer predicts the end of civilisation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCxPOqwCr1I

Here’s something, for those that are interested.

Dennis Meadows Interview p1/4 (The Limits to Growth, Climate Change, Population Growth)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7lmh5XVRW0

makati1 on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 7:16 pm 



“At this stage, around 2040 to 2050, civilised life as we know it on this planet will cease to exist.”

Civilized life has already become rare in the West. Human life is next. Extinction by 2100?

makati1 on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 7:32 pm 



2040? Maybe sooner: “US Sanctions Are Pushing Russia to War”

“By any definition, Washington is, in effect, declaring war on Russia….

It’s economic warfare on a sliding scale to military warfare,…

It seems all the more significant that this week also saw US internet services launching a major clampdown on anti-war websites, suggesting that the powers-that-be want to shut down any criticism or public awareness of their reckless warmongering….

Medvedev warned that Moscow would have to retaliate either “politically, economically or in some other way””

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/08/11/us-sanctions-pushing-russia-war.html

That 3AM flash over American cities?

makati1 on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 7:39 pm 



BTW: If you read that article you can see how the insane America is committing suicide.

“Tragically, the American people are being led to the abyss by politicians who are either ignorant, insane or prostitutes for war profits. Maybe even all of the above. Perversely, these politicians and their media clients accuse Russia of “acts of war” over fantastical claims about “election interference” when in reality it is they who are the ones committing acts of war against Russia….

The political climate in the US among the intelligence agencies, lawmakers and the mainstream media has become saturated with anti-Russian hysteria. The US is an oligarchy in throes of insanity beyond democratic accountable to its people….

Washington has heretofore given notice that it is not interested in diplomacy, dialogue, or negotiation. It only has one mode of conduct – war, war, war.”

As I have been saying…suicide. Are YOU prepared America?

MASTERMIND on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 7:39 pm 



Mak

Russia is the one who is going to be woken up at 3am..And there night time is our day time..Just saying..We got missile shields and troops already on their border..We can play this game to win..

DMyers on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 7:43 pm 



To paraphrase the words of a Dostoyevskian character: “If you try to tell me I’m nothing but a piano key, I’ll find ways to prove that you’re wrong.”

Humans are not piano keys or push buttons, even though it may appear otherwise at times. That they may go to great lengths to prove this is, in itself, the ultimate proof of it.

And so, if these models are based purely on numbers, as MM asserts, and they claim to include human behavior in their purview, then they will not be accurate.

When it comes to the issue of assumptions, I have to side with the believers. There are numerous assumptions buried in this “model”. Logic is based on assumptions. These are highly logical models, as necessary to be computerized. Even if not stated, the assumptions may lie hidden in certain methodological choices. In the BAU model, there had to be an assumption that trends and projections over time would continue along the same or a similar path as manifest in recent history.

DerHundistLos on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 9:17 pm 



The denialist mentality that is so prevalent in our current society, as promulgated by the usual suspects Rock-Outcast-DT-Dead-Myers, is a form of insanity that has created ideal conditions for a cataclysmic Black Swan.

makati1 on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 9:36 pm 



MM, the Us has shit at the border. If the Us is stupid enough to attack Russia, in a few minutes those Russian missiles will be headed for American cities. 20 minutes from Moscow to New York/Chicago/Denver/San Fran. Less from Russian subs off the Us coasts. And all the Us has for defense is missile systems that are over 40 years old. They may not even work. Duck & Cover! LMAO

DMyers on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 9:51 pm 



Derhundistlos

I have only asserted. I have not denied. This shameful “denialist” moniker. What if my co-workers find out I’ve been accused of such a thing.

Reason, logic, reality and justice are all I espouse. I only deny the opponents of those preferences. Let the chips fall where they may.

deadly on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 10:14 pm 



Wasn’t the Arctic Ocean supposed to be ice free according to the scientific prognostications?

It’s not, still ice up there covering the thing.

The climate change charlatans are those who are in denial. Can’t admit that they are wrong and can’t get it right.

Dumber than a box of rocks to live in such a state of denial.

sea ice extent

Dredd on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 11:40 pm 



The old battle between “if” and “when” can’t be analyzed properly without the “assumption” of history.

Which in large part is a study of psychopaths (When You Are Governed By Psychopaths – 8).

Doing the same thing and expecting a different result is problematic.

energy investor on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 11:45 pm 



Deadly,

I will suspend judgement until mid September oon whether sea ice is growing or not. By then it should be very clear.

But having said that, I had an item published in our largest newspaper a few weeks ago…pointing to continued climate fraud.

The most important issues are whether the Eddy Grand Solar Minimum and associated volcanism will pan out as the Maunder Minimum did.

Also, whether the Milankovich cycles will continue their passage of glacial and inter-glacial periods. In that respect we are overdue for the next 90,000 year ice age. But I won’t throw my rattle out of the pram just yet.

If even a mini ice age starts with 7.6-8 billion global population, the future may be bleak for the majority of humanity.

Just hope for the best and prepare for the worst eh?

MASTERMIND on Mon, 13th Aug 2018 11:57 pm 



Tucker Carlson and guest agree that colleges are “literally destroying the country” and pushing us to “a real civil war”

https://www.mediamatters.org/video/2018/08/13/tucker-carlson-and-guest-agree-colleges-are-literally-destroying-country-and-pushing-us-real-civil/220986

makati1 on Tue, 14th Aug 2018 12:31 am 



energy. denying does not change anything. If you are more than 60 years old, you should have seen the changes in your lifetime. I have.

The weather has become radically insane and the sun energy changes are not more than a flea on an elephant compared to the human destruction we have manged over the last 150 – 200 years.

Turn on your house heater to high and close the doors and windows for a day. Does it heat up? Too hot? Well that is what the blanket of CO2 does to the earth.

BTW: A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. Broaden your education. Try ecology and chemistry for a start. Maybe physics if you are not already knowledgeable in that field. THINK! Don’t just read and accept the ideas of others. History is not tomorrow.

MASTERMIND on Tue, 14th Aug 2018 12:53 am 



Missouri Republican Who Said “Hitler Was Right” Wins State House Primary

https://www.jpost.com//American-Politics/Missouri-Republican-who-said-Hitler-was-right-wins-state-House-primary-564637

deadly on Tue, 14th Aug 2018 12:57 am 



It is a lot of work to expose these climate change charlatans, it can be done one at a time. Makes the job easier yet still just as onerous. They can be judged, the judgment would be what they need, guilty until proven innocent. They are humans blathering nonsense about the climate. Antarctica is going to remain a polar climate with a permanent polar ice cap. The climate there is not going to change much if at all.

Let’s visit the Greenland Ice Sheet current status and read what it says:

May and June were markedly cooler than the average, although total melt-day area for the ice sheet is near average as of early July. Winds from the south and high air pressure over Iceland caused a spike in melt area in early July. To date, heavy winter snowfall along the eastern side of the island and a near-average melt season means that the ice sheet has gained a large amount of mass. However if the melting intensifies, ice sheet mass could rapidly decline in the second half of the month.

The Greenland ice sheet has increased in mass during the summer months of 2018. The weather suggests a cooling trend, not more warming.

There is more ice up north this summer, not less.

Nobody makes this stuff up, however the charlatans of climate science always are making stuff up and want you to accept it without protest or questioning.

Deniers non-pareil, the climate change charlatans. They should hang their heads in shame. They are just another bunch of shitheads wanting everybody to listen to their bunkum and bosh.

Probably should be arrested for fraud and jailed. Good way to get them out of the way, a climate change gulag for them or something. A work camp with an entrance that says ‘Arbeit Macht Frei’ would be appropriate.

Can’t do anything except make fraudulent predictions at everyone’s expense.

They all need to be jailed. A good place for them. Good riddance, finally.

Witches in Europe had more credibility.

makati1 on Tue, 14th Aug 2018 1:20 am 



deadly, spot on earth is not a ‘trend’. If the climate is not changing, why is Russia and China opening up the Arctic for transport and commerce? Surely they are not stupid.

“Winter sea ice on Arctic Ocean near record low” 2018
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/news/articles/winter-sea-ice-arctic-ocean-near-record-ow-thaw-shipping-oil-exploration-disrupting-weather-scientists-north-pole-man-made-climate-change/98067/

“Arctic Winter Ice Covers 2nd Smallest Area on Record, Opening Region to Shipping” 2018
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2018/03/28/484580.htm

“As Arctic Ice Vanishes, New Shipping Routes Open” 2017
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/03/science/earth/arctic-shipping.html

“Arctic Ocean shipping routes ‘to open for months'” 2016
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37286750

“Arctic Ocean shipping routes ‘to open for months'” 2016
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37286750

“Shipping Plans Grow as Arctic Ice Fades” 2016
https://e360.yale.edu/features/cargo_shipping_in_the_arctic_declining_sea_ice

“Arctic Ocean opening up to shipping” 2013
https://www.producer.com/daily/arctic-ocean-opening-up-to-shipping/#!

Type “Arctic ocean opening for shipping” into your fave search engine for more. Note that the last article mentioned was form 2013, five years ago, not this year.

makati1 on Tue, 14th Aug 2018 1:29 am 



BTW:

Greenland = 2,160,000 sq. kilometers

Artic Ocean = 14,050,000 sq. Kilometers or seven times the area of Greenland.

How does one year’s small ice build-up on an island compare to the Arctic melt?

Answer a flea on an elephant.

makati1 on Tue, 14th Aug 2018 1:37 am 



Oh, and let’s add in the melt at Antarctica…a similar size area as the Arctic.

“Antarctica Is Melting Three Times as Fast as a Decade Ago” 2016
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/13/climate/antarctica-ice-melting-faster.html

“Antarctic ice sheet is melting, but rising bedrock below could slow it down” 2018
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180621141119.htm

“Epic Antarctic ice sheet melt speeding up sea level rise’ 2018
https://www.cnet.com/news/antarctica-melting-ice-sheet-accelerates-sea-level-rise/

And on and on…

I even predicted that rising bedrock in the SF novel I wrote years ago. It set off a chain reaction of volcanic and earthquake activity all over the world. Do you know that there are 40+ volcanoes in Antarctica? LOL

DerHundistLos on Tue, 14th Aug 2018 1:41 am 



Meanwhile in the real world, just the facts:

Earth’s globally averaged temperature for 2017 made it the third warmest year in NOAA’s 138-year climate record, behind 2016 (warmest) and 2015 (second warmest). NASA scientists ranked 2017 as the second warmest on record.

2017 marks the 41st consecutive year (since 1977) with global land and ocean temperatures at least nominally above the 20th-century average. The six warmest years on record for the planet have all occurred since 2010.

Sea ice extent (coverage) at the poles remained low throughout last year. Antarctica had a record-low extent in 2017, while the Arctic had its second-lowest ice coverage on record.

The average U.S. temperature for the year to date (January through July) was 53.1 degrees F (1.9 degrees above normal). The period from May through July was the warmest on record at 70.9 degrees F (3.4 degrees above average).

Cloggie on Tue, 14th Aug 2018 1:46 am 



Missouri Republican Who Said “Hitler Was Right” Wins State House Primary

https://www.jpost.com//American-Politics/Missouri-Republican-who-said-Hitler-was-right-wins-state-House-primary-564637

Davy probably secretly voted for him.

This 14-old fella can’t drive a car, but perhaps he can drive Vermont:

http://www.spiegel.de/karriere/ethan-sonneborn-14-jaehriger-tritt-bei-gouverneurswahl-in-vermont-an-a-1223020.html

An Ethan Sonneborn (jewish sounding name) is running for governor of Vermont.

DerHundistLos on Tue, 14th Aug 2018 1:47 am 



Speaking of charlatans, you know a charlatan by all the bumping of gums w/o showing evidence. Just look at the garbage posted by deadly and energy investor. Their comments are pure personal opinion. Someone should remind these clowns their their opinion is like their asshole- everyone has one.

DerHundistLos on Tue, 14th Aug 2018 1:51 am 



MASTERMIND and onlooker:

Outstanding rebuttals with facts!!!!

Permavillage on Tue, 14th Aug 2018 2:34 am 



Collapse Now Avoid the Rush!
Pick up the skills and the needed tools while there is still time (JMG).