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Why Collapse Occurs; Why It May Not Be Far Away

Why Collapse Occurs; Why It May Not Be Far Away thumbnail

Collapse is a frightening subject. The question of why collapse occurs is something I have pieced together over many years of study from a number of different sources, which I will attempt to explain in this post.

Collapse doesn’t happen instantaneously; it happens many years after an economy first begins outgrowing its resource base. In fact, the resource base likely declines at the same time from multiple causes, such as soil erosion, deforestation and oil depletion. Before collapse occurs, there seem to be warning signs, including:

  • Too much wage disparity
  • Riots and protests by people unhappy with low wages
  • Prices of commodities that are too low for producers that need to recover their costs of production and governments that require tax revenue to fund programs for their citizens
  • An overstretched financial system; conditions ripe for debt defaults
  • Susceptibility to epidemics

Many people have the misimpression that our most important problem will be “running out” of oil. Because of this, they believe that oil prices will rise high if the system is reaching its limits. Since oil prices are not very high, they assume that the problem is far away. Once a person understands what the real issue is, it is (unfortunately) relatively easy to see that the current economy seems to be quite close to collapse.

In this post, I provide images from a recent presentation I gave, together with some comments. A PDF of the presentation can be downloaded here:

Slide 1
Slide 2
Slide 3
Slide 4

In some ways, a self-organizing system is analogous to a dome that might be built with a child’s toy building set (Slide 4). New layers of businesses and consumers are always being added, as are new regulations, more or less on top of the prior structure. At the same time, old consumers are dying off and products that are no longer needed are being discontinued. This happens without central direction from anyone. Entrepreneurs see the need for new products and try to satisfy them. Consumers decide on what to buy, based upon what their spendable income is and what their needs are.

Slide 5

Resources of many kinds are needed for an economy. Harnessing energy of many types is especially important. Early economies burned biomass and used the labor of animals. In recent years, we have added other types of energy, such as fossil fuels and electricity, to supplement our own human energy. Without supplemental energy of various kinds, we would be very limited in the kinds of goods and services that could be produced. Our farming would be limited to digging in the ground with a stick, for example.

The fact that there is almost an equivalence between employees and consumers is very important. If the wages of consumers are high, relative to the prices of the goods and services available, then consumers are able to buy many of those goods and services. As a result, citizens tend to be happy. But if there are too many low paid workers, or people without work at all, consumers are likely to be unhappy because they cannot afford the basic necessities of life.

Slide 6

The problem civilizations are facing is a two-sided problem: (1) Growing population and (2) Resources that often degrade or deplete. As a result, the amount of resources per person falls. If this were carried to the limit, all of us would starve.

Slide 7

As resources deplete and population grows, local leaders can see that problems are on the horizon. At first, adding technology, such as a new dam to provide water to make farms more productive, helps. As more and more technology and other complexity is added, there is less and less “bang for the buck.” We can easily see this in the healthcare field. Early antibiotics had a very big payback; recent medical innovations that help a group of 500 or 1000 people with a particular rare disease can be expected to have a much smaller payback.

A second issue with added complexity is that it increasingly leads to a society of the very wealthy plus many very low paid workers. Joseph Tainter identified the combination of these two issues as leading to collapse in his book, The Collapse of Complex Societies.

Slide 8

Françios Roddier is an astrophysicist who writes primarily in French. His book Thermodynamique de l’évolution was published in 2012; it is now available in English as well.

The issue of starving people in Yemen is an issue today. In fact, hunger is an increasing problem in poor countries around the world. The world tourism industry is dead; the industry of making fancy clothing for people in rich countries is greatly reduced. People who formerly made a living in these industries in poor countries increasingly find it difficult to earn an adequate living with other available jobs. Rich countries tend to have better safety nets when there are widespread reductions in job-availability.

Slide 9

Businesses often make long lasting goods such as machines to be used in factories or automobiles to be used by consumers. Governments often make long-lasting goods such as paved roads and school buildings. When making these goods, they take some combination of commodities, built machinery, and human labor to make goods and services that people will use for many years into the future. The future value of these goods is hoped to be significantly greater than the value of the inputs used to create these goods and services.

There are at least three reasons that time-shifting devices are needed:

  1. Workers need to be paid as these goods are made.
  2. Businesses need to build factories in advance.
  3. Businesses, governments and individuals are all likely to find the future payments more manageable, even with interest added, than they are as a single payment upfront.

I don’t mention the issue in Slide 9, but once time-shifting devices are created, they become very easy to manipulate. For example, no one knows precisely what the future value of a particular investment will be. Governments, especially, are prone to make investments in unneeded infrastructure, simply to provide jobs for people. We also know that there are diminishing returns to added technology, but stocks of technology companies tend to be valued as if complexity will save the world. Third, interest rate manipulations (lower!) and the offering of debt to those who seem unlikely to be able ever to repay the debt can be used to make the economy of a country appear to be in better shape than it really is. Many of us remember the collapse of the US subprime housing debt bubble in 2008.

Slide 10

The purpose of a financial system is to allocate goods and services. High wages allocate a larger share of the output of an economy to a particular person than low wages. Appreciation in asset values (such as prices of shares of stock, or value of a home or piece of land) also act to increase the share of the goods and services produced by the economy to an individual. Payment of interest, dividends and rents are other ways of allocating goods and services that the economy makes. Governments can print money, but they cannot print goods and services!

As the economy gets more complex, the non-elite workers increasingly get left out of the distribution of goods and services. For one thing (not mentioned on Slide 10), as the economy becomes more complex, an increasing share of the goods and services produced by the economy need to go into making all of the intermediate goods that make that industrial economy work. Intermediate goods would include factories, semi-trucks, hydroelectric dams, oil pipelines and other goods and services that don’t directly benefit an individual consumer. They are needed to make the overall system work.

As the economy gets bigger and more complex, the non-elite workers increasingly find themselves left out. Besides losing an increasing part of the output of the intermediate goods and services mentioned in the prior paragraph, there are other pieces that take slices of the total output of goods and services:

  • High paid workers take their quite-large slices of the total output. These individuals tend to be the ones who get the benefit of asset appreciation, as well.
  • Pension programs and other programs to help the elderly and unemployed take a cut.
  • Health insurance costs, in the US at least, tend to be very high, relative to wages, for lower-paid workers.
  • The work of some employees can be replaced by low-paid overseas employees or by robots. If they are to keep their jobs, their wages need to be suitably low to compete.

With all of these issues, the workers at the bottom of the employment hierarchy increasingly get left out of the distribution of goods and services made by the economy.

Slide 11

We know some of the kinds of things that happen when economies are close to collapse from the writings of researchers such as Peter Turchin, lead author of Secular Cycles, and Joseph Tainter, mentioned earlier. One approach is for governments to try to work around the resource problem by starting wars with other economies whose resources they might gain. Probably a more likely outcome is that these low-resource-per-capita economies become vulnerable to attack by other economies because of their weakened condition. In any event, more conflict is likely as resource limits hit.

If the low incomes of non-elite workers persist, many bad outcomes can be expected. Local riots can be expected as citizens protest their low wages or pensions. Governments are likely to find that they cannot collect enough taxes. Governments will also find that they must cut back on programs, or (in today’s world) their currencies will sink relative to currencies of other countries. Intergovernmental organizations may fail for lack of funding, or governments may be overthrown by unhappy citizens.

Debt defaults can be expected. Governments have a long history of defaulting on their debts when conditions were bad according to Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff in This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.

It becomes very easy for epidemics to take hold because of the poor eating habits and the close living quarters of non-elite workers.

With respect to inflation-adjusted commodity prices, it is logical that they would stay low because a large share of the population would be impoverished and thus not able to afford very many of these commodities. A person would expect gluts of commodities, as occurred during the Great Depression in the 1930s in the United States because many farmers and farm-hands had been displaced by modern farming equipment. We also find that the book of Revelation from the Bible seems to indicate that low prices and lack of demand were problems at the time of the collapse of ancient Babylon (Revelation 18:11-13).

Slide 12

Much of what peak oil theory misunderstands is what our society as a whole misunderstands. Most people seem to believe that our economy will grow endlessly unless we somehow act to slow it down or stop it. They cannot imagine that the economy comes with built-in brakes, provided by the laws of physics.

Armed with a belief in endless growth, economists assume that the economy can expand year after year at close to the same rate. Modelers of all kinds, including climate modelers, miss the natural feedback loops that lead to the end of fossil fuel extraction without any attempt on our part to stop its extraction. A major part of the problem is that added complexity leads to too much wage and wealth disparity. Eventually, the low wages of many of the workers filter through to oil and other energy prices, making prices too low for producers.

Collapse isn’t instantaneous, as we will see on Slide 26. As resources per capita fall too low, there are several ways to keep problems hidden. More debt at lower interest rates can be added. New financial techniques can be developed to hide problems. Increased globalization can be used. Corners can be cut on electricity transmission, installation and maintenance, and in the building of new electricity generating structures. It is only when the economy hits a bump in the road (such as a climate-related event) that there suddenly is a major problem: Electricity production fails, or not enough food is produced. In fact, California, Florida, and China have all encountered the need for rolling blackouts with respect to electricity in the past year; China is now encountering difficulty with inadequate food supply, as well.

Economists have played a major role in hiding problems with energy with their models that seem to show that prices can be expected to rise if there is a shortage of oil or other energy. Their models miss the point that adequate supplemental energy is just as important for demand as it is for supply of finished goods and services. The reason energy is important for demand is because demand depends on the wages of workers, and the wages of workers in turn depend on the productivity of those workers. The use of energy supplies to allow workers to operate tools of many kinds (such as computers, trucks, electric lights, ovens, and agricultural equipment) greatly influences the productivity of those workers.

A person who believes energy prices can rise endlessly is likely to believe that recycling can increase without limit because of ever-rising prices. Such a person is also likely to believe that the substitution of intermittent renewables for fossil fuels will work because high prices for scarce electricity will enable an approach that is inherently high-cost, if any continuity of supply is required.

Thus, the confusion isn’t so much that of peak oilers. Instead, the confusion is that of economists and scientists building models based on past history. These models miss the turning points that occur as limits approach. They assume that future patterns will replicate past patterns, but this is not what happens in a finite world. If we lived in a world without limits, their models would be correct. This confusion is very much built into today’s thinking.

In fact, we are living in an economic system/ecosystem that has brakes to it. These brakes are being applied now, even though 99%+ of the population isn’t aware of the problem. The system will protect itself, quite possibly using the approach of evicting most humans.

Slide 13

The opinions expressed in Slide 13 reflect some of the views I have heard expressed speaking with peak oilers and with people looking into issues from a biophysical economics perspective. Obviously, views differ from person to person.

Many people believe that resources in the ground provide a good estimate of the quantity of fossil fuels that can be extracted in the future. Peak oilers tend to believe that the available resources will need to have sufficiently high “Energy Returned on Energy Invested” (EROEI) ratios to make extraction feasible. Politicians and climate modelers tend to believe that prices can rise endlessly, so low EROEI is no obstacle. They seem to believe that anything that we have the technical skill to extract, even coal under the North Sea, can be extracted.

If a person believes the high estimates of fossil fuel resources that seem to be available and misses the point that the economy has built-in brakes, climate change becomes the issue of major concern.

My view is that most of the resources that seem to be available will be left in the ground because of low prices and problems associated with collapse, such as failing governments and broken supply lines. In any event, we do not really have the ability to fix the climate; the laws of physics will provide their own adjustment. We will simply need to live with whatever climate is provided. Humans lived through ice-ages in the past. Presumably, whatever remanent of humans remains after what seems to be an upcoming bottleneck will be able to live in suitable areas of the world in the future.

Slide 14

On Slide 14, note that today’s industrial economy must necessarily come to an end, just as the lives of hurricanes and of people come to an end.

Also note that with diminishing returns, the cost of producing many of the things listed on Slide 14 is rising. For example, with rising population, dry areas of the world eventually need to use desalination to get enough fresh water for their growing populations. Desalination is expensive. Even if the necessary workaround is simply deeper wells, this still adds costs.

With diminishing returns affecting many parts of the economy simultaneously, it becomes increasingly difficult for efforts in the direction of efficiency to lead to costs that are truly lower on an inflation-adjusted basis. Advanced education and health care in particular tend to have an ever-rising inflation-adjusted costs of production. Some minerals do as well, as the quality of ores deplete.

Slide 15

An important issue to note is that wages need to cover all the rising costs, even the rising cost of health care. The paychecks of many people, especially those without advanced education, fall too low to meet all of their needs.

Slide 16

Slides 16 and 17 describe some of the reasons why oil prices don’t necessarily rise with scarcity.

Slide 17
Slide 18

I was one of the co-authors of the Ke Wang paper mentioned in Slide 18. We developed three different forecasts of how much oil would be extracted in China, depending on how high oil prices would be able to rise. The Red Line is the “Stays Low” Scenario, with prices close to $50 per barrel. The Yellow Line is the “Ever Rising Price” Scenario. The Best Estimate reflects the expectation that prices would be in roughly the $100 to $120 barrel range, from 2015 onward.

Slide 19

In fact, oil prices have stayed fairly low, and China’s oil production has declined, as our paper predicted.

Slide 20
Slide 21

Note that the chart on Slide 21 shows wage disparity only in the US. On this basis, the share of wages going to the top 1% and top 0.1% are back at the levels that they were in the 1920s. Now, our economy is much more global. If we consider all of the low income people in the world, the worldwide wage disparity is much greater.

Slide 22

There are two things to note on Slide 22. The first is that producers, in inflation-adjusted terms, seem to need very high prices, approximately $120 per barrel or more. This is based on a presentation made by Steve Kopits, which I wrote up here: Beginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending.

The other thing to note is that oil prices tend to bounce around a great deal. Prices seem to depend on the amount of debt and on interest rates, as well as the wages of workers. The peak in oil prices in mid-2008 came precisely at the time the debt bubble broke with respect to mortgage and credit card debt in the US. I wrote about this in an article in the journal Energy called, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis.

The US instituted Quantitative Easing (QE) at the end of 2008. QE acted to lower interest rates. With the help of QE, the price of oil gradually rose again. When the US discontinued QE in late 2014, oil prices fell. Recently, there has been a great deal of QE done, as well as direct spending by governments, oil prices are still far below the $120 per barrel level. Middle Eastern oil producers especially need high oil prices, in order to collect the high tax revenue that they depend upon to provide programs for their citizens.

Slide 23

Coal prices (Slide 23) tend to follow somewhat the same pattern as oil prices (Slide 22). There is very much the same balancing act with coal prices as well: Coal prices need to be high enough for producers, but not too high for customers to buy products made with coal, such as electricity and steel.

China tries to keep its coal prices relatively high in order to encourage production within the country. China has been limiting imports to try to keep prices high. The relatively high coal prices of China make it an attractive destination for coal exporters. There are now a large number of boats waiting outside China hoping to sell coal to China at an attractive price.

Slide 24

The blue line on Figure 24 represents total energy consumption up through 2020. The red dotted line is a rough guesstimate of how energy consumption might fall. This decline could happen if people wanting energy consumption coming only from renewables were able to succeed by 2050 (except I am doubtful that these renewable energy types would really be of much use by themselves).

Alternatively, this might also be the decline that our self-organizing economy takes us on. We are already seeing a decrease in energy consumption related to the current pandemic. I think governmental reactions to the pandemic were prompted, in part, by the very stretched condition of our oil and other energy supplies. Countries were experiencing riots over low wages. They also could not afford to import as much oil as they were importing. Shutdowns in response to COVID-19 cases seemed like a sensible thing to do. They helped restore order and saved on energy imports. Strangely enough, the pandemic may be a part of the collapse that our self-organizing economy is arranging for us.

Slide 25

Slide 25 takes the blue line from Slide 24 and looks at what happened in more detail. On Slide 25, we are looking at the average annual increase in energy consumption, for a given 10 year period. This is split between the rate of population growth (blue), and the energy consumption growth that went into other things, which I equate to change in “standard of living” (red). The big red humps represent very good times, economically. The post-World War II bump is especially high. The valleys are times of disturbing changes, including wars and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Of course, all of these situations occurred during periods when energy consumption was generally rising. If these unfortunate things happened when oil consumption was rising, what might possibly happen when energy consumption is falling?

Slide 26

We now seem to be hitting the Crisis Stage. In the past, collapse (which takes place in the Crisis Stage) has not been instantaneous; it has taken place over quite a number of years, typically 20 or more. The world economy is quite different now, with its international trade system and heavy use of debt. It would seem likely that a collapse could happen more quickly. A common characteristic of collapses, such as avalanches, is that they often seem to start off fairly slowly. Then, suddenly, a large piece breaks away, and there is a big collapse. Something analogous to this could possibly happen with the economy, too.

Slide 27

One of the major issues with adding intermittent renewables to the electric grid is a pricing problem. Once wind and solar are given subsidies (even the subsidy of “going first”), all of the other types of electricity production seem to need subsidies, as well. It is the pricing systems that are terribly detrimental, although this is not generally noticed. In fact, researchers who are looking only at energy may not even care if the pricing is wrong. Ultimately, the low pricing for electricity can be expected to bring the electric grid down, just as inadequate prices for fossil fuels can be expected to lead to the closure of many fossil fuel producers. Both Texas and California are having difficulty because they have not been collecting enough funds from customers to build resilient systems.

Slide 28
Slide 29

The focus of EROEI research is often with respect to whether the EROEI of a particular type of energy production is “high enough,” relative to some goal, such as 3:1 or 10:1. I believe that there needs to be more focus on the total quantity of net energy produced. If there is a EROEI goal for highly complex energy types, it needs to be much higher than for less complex energy types.


Slide 30

Today, it is common to see the EROEIs of a number of different types of energy displayed side-by-side as if they were comparable. This type of comparison is also made with other energy metrics, such as “Levelized Cost of Electricity” and “Energy Payback Period.” I think this approach makes highly complex types of energy production, such as intermittent wind and solar, look better than they really are. Even intermittent hydroelectric power generation, such as is encountered in places with rainy seasons and dry seasons and in places that are subject to frequent droughts, is not really comparable to electricity supply that can be provided year-around by fossil fuel providers, if adequate storage is available.

Slide 31

Earlier in this post, I documented a number of reasons why we should expect low rather than high energy prices in the future. I am reiterating the point here because it is a point energy researchers need especially to be aware of. Production is likely to come to an end because it is unprofitable.

Slide 32

One characteristic of human-made complexity is that it has very little redundancy. If something goes wrong in one part of one system, it is likely to ripple through that system, as well as other systems to which the first system is connected. An outage of oil is likely to indirectly affect electricity because oil is needed to fix problems with electricity transmission lines. An electricity outage may cause disruption in oil drilling and refining, and even in filling up automobiles at service stations. An international trade disruption can break supply lines and leave shipping containers at the wrong end of the globe.

We know that collapse tends to lead to less complex systems. We should expect fewer jobs requiring advanced education. We should expect to start losing battles against infectious diseases. We should expect a reduction in international trade; in the future, it may primarily take place among a few trusted partners. Some intergovernmental organizations are likely to disappear. Peak oil cannot happen by itself; it can only happen with disruptions and shrinkage in many other parts of the economy, as well.

Slide 33

The climate is indeed changing. Unfortunately, we humans have little ability to change what is happening, especially at this late date. Arguably, some changes could have been made much earlier, for example in the 1970s when the modeling included in the 1972 book The Limits to Growth by Donnela Meadows and others showed that the world economy was likely to hit limits before 2050.

It is clear to many people that the world economy is now struggling. There is too much debt; young people are having trouble finding jobs that pay well enough; people in poor countries are increasingly more food insecure. Leaders everywhere would like solutions. The “easy” solution to offer is that intermittent wind and solar will solve all our problems, including climate change. The closer a person looks at the situation, this solution is simply nonsense. Wind and solar work passably well at small concentrations within electric systems, if it is possible to work around their pricing problems. But they don’t scale up well. Energy researchers especially should be aware of these difficulties.

The book Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe by Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee points out that there have been an amazing number of what seem to be coincidences that have allowed life on earth to flourish on earth for four billion years. Perhaps these coincidences will continue. Perhaps there is an underlying plan that we are not aware of.

Posted in Financial Implications | 589 Comments

Where Energy Modeling Goes Wrong

There are a huge number of people doing energy modeling. In my opinion, nearly all of them are going astray in their modeling because they don’t understand how the economy really operates.

The modeling that comes closest to being correct is that which underlies the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others. This modeling was based on physical quantities of resources, with no financial system whatsoever. The base model, shown here, indicates that limits would be reached a few years later than we actually seem to be reaching them. The dotted black line in Figure 1 indicates where I saw the world economy to be in January 2019, based on the limits we already seemed to be reaching at that time.


Figure 1. Base scenario from 1972 Limits to Growth, printed using today’s graphics by Charles Hall and John Day in “Revisiting Limits to Growth After Peak Oil,” with dotted line added corresponding to where I saw the world economy to be in January 2019, based on how the economy was operating at that time.

The authors of The Limits to Growth have said that their model cannot be expected to be correct after limits hit (which is about now), so even this model is less than perfect. Thus, this model cannot be relied upon to show that population will continue to rise until after 2050.

Many readers are familiar with Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) calculations. These are favorites of many people following the Peak Oil problem. A high ratio of Energy Returned to Energy Invested is considered favorable, while a low ratio is considered unfavorable. Energy sources with similar EROEIs are supposedly equivalent. Even these similarities can be misleading. They make intermittent wind and solar appear far more helpful than they really are.

Other modeling, such as that by oil companies, is equally wrong. Their modeling tends to make future fossil fuel supplies look far more available than they really are.

This is all related to a talk I plan to give to energy researchers later in February. So far, all that is pinned down is the Summary, which I reproduce here as Section [1], below.

[1] Summary: The economy is approaching near-term collapse, not peak oil. The result is quite different.

The way a person views the world economy makes a huge difference in how one models it. A big issue is how connected the various parts of the economy are. Early researchers assumed that oil was the key energy product; if it were possible to find suitable substitutes for oil, the danger of exhaustion of oil resources could be delayed almost indefinitely.

In fact, the operation of the world economy is controlled by the laws of physics. All parts are tightly linked. The problem of diminishing returns affects far more than oil supply; it affects coal, natural gas, mineral extraction in general, fresh water production and food production. Based on the work of Joseph Tainter, we also know that added complexity is also subject to diminishing returns.

When a person models how the system works, it becomes apparent that as increasing complexity is added to the system, the portion of the economic output that can be returned to non-elite workers as goods and services drops dramatically. This leads to rising wage disparity as increasing complexity is added to the economy. As the economy approaches limits, rising wage disparity indirectly leads to a tendency toward low prices for oil and other commodities because a growing number of non-elite workers are unable to afford homes, cars and even proper nutrition.

A second effect of added complexity is growing use of long-lasting goods available through technology. Many of these long-lasting goods are only affordable with financial time-shifting devices such as loans or the sale of shares of stock. As non-elite workers become increasingly unable to afford the output of the economy, these time-shifting devices provide a way to raise demand (and thus prices) for commodities of all types, including oil. These time-shifting devices are subject to manipulation by central banks, within limits.

Standard calculations of Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI) ignore the fact that added complexity tends to have a very detrimental impact on the economy because of the diminishing returns it produces. To correct for this, today’s EROEI calculations should only be used to compare energy systems with similar complexity. The least complex energy systems are based on burned biomass and power from animals. Fossil fuels represent a step upward in complexity, but they still can be stored until their use is required. Intermittent renewables are far ahead of fossil fuels in terms complexity: they require sophisticated systems of storage and distribution and therefore cannot be considered equivalent to oil or dispatchable electricity.

The lack of understanding of how the economy really works has led to the failure to understand several important points:

(i) Low oil prices rather than high are to be expected as the economy reaches limits,

(ii) Most fossil fuel reserves will be left in the ground because of low prices,

(iii) The economy is experiencing the historical phenomenon of collapse, rather than peak oil, and

(iv) If the economy is not to collapse, we need energy sources providing a larger quantity of net energy per capita to offset diminishing returns.

[2] The world’s energy problem, as commonly understood by researchers today

It is my observation that many researchers believe that we humans are in charge of what happens with future fossil fuel extraction, or with choosing to substitute intermittent renewables for fossil fuels. They generally do not see any problem with “running out” in the near future. If running out were imminent, the problem would likely be announced by spiking prices.

In the predominant view, the amount of future fossil fuels available depends upon the quantity of energy resources that can be extracted with available technology. Thus, a proper estimate of the resources that can be extracted is needed. Oil seems to be in shortest supply based on its reserve estimates and the vast benefits it provides to society. Thus, it is commonly believed that oil production will “peak” and begin to decline first, before coal and natural gas.

In this view, demand is something that we never need to worry about because energy, and especially oil, is a necessity. People will choose energy over other products because they will pay whatever is necessary to have adequate energy supplies. As a result, oil and other energy prices will rise almost endlessly, allowing much more to be extracted. These higher prices will also enable higher cost intermittent electricity to be substituted for today’s fossil fuels.

A huge amount of additional fossil fuels can be extracted, according to those who are primarily concerned about loss of biodiversity and climate change. Those who analyze EROEI tend to believe that falling EROEI will limit the quantity of future fossil fuels extracted to a smaller total extracted amount. Because of this, energy from additional sources, such as intermittent wind and solar, will be required to meet the total energy demand of society.

The focus of EROEI studies is on whether the EROEI of a given proposed substitution is, in some sense, high enough to add energy to the economy. The calculation of EROEI makes no distinction between energy available only through highly complex systems and energy available from less complex systems.

EROEI researchers, or perhaps those who rely on the indications of EROEI researchers, seem to believe that the energy needs of economies are flexible within a very wide range. Thus, an economy can shrink its energy consumption without a particularly dire impact.

[3] The real story seems to be that the adverse outcome we are reaching is collapse, not peak oil. The economy is a self-organizing system powered by energy. This makes it behave in very unexpected ways.

[3a] The economy is tightly connected by the laws of physics.

Energy consumption (dissipation) is necessary for every aspect of the economy. People often understand that making goods and services requires energy dissipation. What they don’t realize is that almost all of today’s jobs require energy dissipation, as well. Without supplemental energy, humans could only gather wild fruits and vegetables and hunt using the simplest of tools. Or, they could attempt simple horticulture by using a stick to dig a place in the ground to plant a seed.

In physics terms, the economy is a dissipative structure, which is a self-organizing structure that grows over time. Other examples of dissipative structures include hurricanes, plants and animals of all types, ecosystems, and star systems. Without a supply of energy to dissipate (that is, food to eat, in the case of humans), these dissipative structures would collapse.

We know that the human body has many different systems, such as a cardiovascular system, digestive system and nervous system. The economy has many different systems, too, and is just as tightly connected. For example, the economy cannot get along without a transportation system any more than a human can get along without a cardiovascular system.

This self-organizing system acts without our direction, just as our brain or circulatory system acts without our direction. In fact, we have very little control over these systems.

The self-organizing economy allows common belief systems to arise that seem to be right but are really based on models with many incorrect assumptions. People desperately need and want a “happily ever after” solution. The strong need for a desirable outcome favors the selection of models that lead to the conclusion that if there is a problem, it is many years away. Conflicting political views seem to be based on different, equally wrong, models of how world leaders can solve the energy predicament that the world is facing.

The real story is that the world’s self-organizing economy will determine for us what is ahead, and there is virtually nothing we can do to change the result. Strangely enough, if we look at the long term pattern, there almost seems to be a guiding hand behind the result. According to Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee in Rare Earth, there have been a huge number of seeming coincidences that have allowed life on Earth to take hold and flourish for four billion years. Perhaps this “luck” will continue.

[3b] As the economy reaches limits, commodities of many types reach diminishing returns simultaneously.

It is indeed true that the economy reaches diminishing returns in oil supply as it reaches limits. Oil is very valuable because it is energy dense and easily transported. The oil that can be extracted, refined, and delivered to needed markets using the least amount of resources (including human labor) tends to be extracted first. It is later that deeper wells are built that are farther from markets. Because of these issues, oil extraction does tend to reach diminishing returns, as more is extracted.

If this were the only aspect of the economy that was experiencing diminishing returns, then the models coming from a peak oil perspective would make sense. We could move away from oil, simply by transferring oil use to appropriately chosen substitutes.

It becomes clear when a person looks at the situation that commodities of all kinds reach diminishing returns. Fresh water reaches diminishing returns. We can add more by using desalination and pumping water to where it is required, but this approach is hugely expensive. As population and industrialization grows, the need for fresh water grows, making diminishing returns for fresh water a real issue.

Minerals of all kinds reach diminishing returns, including uranium, lithium, copper and phosphate rock (used for fertilizer). The reason this occurs is because we tend to extract these minerals faster than they are replaced by the weathering of rocks, including bedrock. In fact, useable topsoil tends to reach diminishing returns because of erosion. Also, with increasing population, the amount of food required keeps increasing, putting further pressure on farmland and making it harder to retain an acceptable level of topsoil.

[3c] Increased complexity leads to diminishing returns as well.

In his book, The Collapse of Complex Societies, Joseph Tainter points out that complexity reaches diminishing returns, just as commodities do.

As an example, it is easy to see that added spending on healthcare reaches diminishing returns. The discovery of antibiotics clearly had a huge impact on healthcare, at relatively little cost. Now, a recent article is entitled, The hunt for antibiotics grows harder as resistance builds. The dollar payback on other drugs tends to fall as well, as solutions to the most common diseases are found, and researchers must turn their attention to diseases affecting only, perhaps, 500 people globally.

Similarly, spending on advanced education reaches diminishing returns. Continuing the medical example above, educating an increasing number of researchers, all looking for new antibiotics, may eventually lead to success in discovering more antibiotics. But the payback with respect to the education of these researchers will not be nearly as great as the payback for educating the early researchers who found the first antibiotics.

[3d] Wages do not rise sufficiently so that all of the higher costs associated with the many types of diminishing returns can be recouped simultaneously.

The healthcare system (at least in the United States) tends to let its higher costs flow through to consumers. We can see this by looking at how much higher the Medical Care Consumer Price Index (CPI) rises compared to the All Items CPI in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Consumer price index for Medical Care versus for All Items, in chart made by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis.

The high (and rapidly rising) cost of advanced education is another cost that is being passed on to consumers–the students and their parents. In this case, loans are used to make the high cost look less problematic.

Of course, if consumers are burdened with higher medical and educational costs, it makes it difficult to afford the higher cost of energy products, as well. With these higher costs, young people tend to live with their parents longer, saving on the energy products needed to have their own homes and vehicles. Needless to say, the lower net income for many people, after healthcare costs and student loan repayments are deducted, acts to reduce the demand for oil and energy products, and thus contributes to the problem of continued low oil prices.

[3e] Added complexity tends to increase wage disparities. The reduced spending by lower income workers tends to hold down fossil fuel prices, similar to the impact identified in Section [3d].

As the economy becomes more complex, companies tend to become larger and more hierarchical. Elite workers (ones with more training or with more supervisory responsibility) earn more than non-elite workers. Globalization adds to this effect, as workers in high wage countries increasingly compete with workers in lower wage countries. Even computer programmers can encounter this difficulty, as programming is increasingly moved to China and India.

Figure 3. Figure by Pew Research Center in Trends in Income and Wealth Inequality, published January 9, 2020.

Individuals with low incomes spend a disproportionately large share of their incomes on commodities because everyone needs to eat approximately 2,000 calories of food per day. In addition, everyone needs some kind of shelter, clothing and basic transportation. All of these types of consumption are commodity intensive. People with very high incomes tend to buy disproportionately more goods and services that are not very resource intensive, such as education for their children at elite universities. They may also use part of their income to buy shares of stock, hoping their value will rise.

With a shift in the distribution of incomes toward those with high earnings, the demand for commodities of all types tends to stagnate or even fall. Fewer people are able to buy new cars, and fewer people can afford vacations involving travel. Thus, as more complexity is added, there tends to be downward pressure on the price of oil and other energy products.

[4] Oil prices have been falling behind those needed by oil producers since 2012.

Figure 4. Figure created by Gail Tverberg using EIA average monthly Brent oil price data, adjusted for inflation using the CPI Index for All Items for Urban Consumers.

Back in February 2014, Steven Kopits gave a presentation at Columbia University explaining the state of the oil industry. I wrote a post describing this presentation called, Beginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending. Oil companies were reporting that prices had been too low for them to make an adequate profit for reinvestment, back as early as 2012. In inflation-adjusted terms, this was when oil prices were about $120 per barrel.

Even Middle Eastern oil exporting countries need surprisingly high oil prices because their economies depend on the profits of oil companies to provide the vast majority of their tax revenue. If oil prices are too low, adequate taxes cannot be collected. Without funds for jobs programs and food subsidies, there are likely to be uprisings by unhappy citizens who cannot maintain an adequate standard of living.

Looking at Figure 4, we see that there has been very little time that Brent oil prices have been above $120 per barrel. Even with all of the recent central bank stimulus and deficit spending by economies around the world, Brent oil prices remain below $60 per barrel.

[5] Interest rates and the amount of debt make a huge difference in oil prices, too.

Based on Figure 4, oil prices are highly irregular. Much of this irregularity seems to be associated with interest rate and debt level changes. In fact, in July 2008, what I would call the debt bubble associated with subprime housing and credit cards collapsed, bringing oil prices down from their peak abruptly. In late 2008, Quantitative Easing (QE) (aimed at bringing interest rates down) was added just prior to an upturn on prices in 2009 and 2010. Prices fell again, when the United States discontinued QE in late 2014.

If we think about it, increased debt makes purchases such as cars, homes and new factories more affordable. In fact, the lower the interest rate, the more affordable these items become. The number of purchases of any of these items can be expected to rise with more debt and lower interest rates. Thus, we would expect oil prices to rise as debt is added and fall as it is taken away. Now, there are many questions: Why haven’t oil prices risen more, with all of the stimulus that has been added? Are we reaching the limits of stimulus? Are interest rates as low as they can go, and the amount of debt outstanding as high as it can go?

[6] The growing complexity of the economy is contributing to the huge amount of debt outstanding.

In a very complex economy, a huge number of durable goods and services are produced. Examples of durable goods would include machines used in factories and pipelines of all kinds. Durable goods would also include vehicles of all types, including both vehicles used for businesses and vehicles used by consumers for their own benefit. As broadly defined here, durable goods would include buildings of all types, including factories, schools, offices and homes. It would also include wind turbines and solar panels.

There would also be durable services produced. For example, a college degree would have lasting benefit, it is hoped. A computer program would have value after it is completed. Thus, a consulting service is able to sell its programs to prospective buyers.

Somehow, there is a need to pay for all of these durable goods. We can see this most easily for the consumer. A loan that allows durable goods to be paid for over their expected life will make these goods more affordable.

Similarly, a manufacturer needs to pay the many workers making all of the durable goods. Their labor is adding value to the finished products, but this value will not be realized until the finished products are put into operation.

Other financing approaches can also be used, including the sale of bonds or shares of stock. The underlying intent is to provide financial time-shifting services. Interest rates associated with these financial time-shifting services are now being manipulated downward by central banks to make these services more affordable. This is part of what keeps stock prices high and commodity prices from falling lower than their current levels.

These loans, bonds and shares of stock are providing a promise of future value. This value will exist only if there are enough fossil fuels and other resources to create physical goods and services to fulfill these promises. Central banks can print money, but they cannot print actual goods and services. If I am right about collapse being ahead, the whole debt system seems certain to collapse. Shares of stock seem certain to lose their value. This is concerning. The end point of all of the added complexity seems to be financial collapse, unless the system can truly add the promised goods and services.

[7] Intermittent electricity fits very poorly into just-in-time supply lines.

A complex economy requires long supply lines. Usually, these supply lines are operated on a just-in-time basis. If one part of a supply line encounters problems, then manufacturing needs to stop. For example, automobile manufacturers in many parts of the world are finding that they need to suspend production because it is impossible to source the necessary semiconductor chips. If electricity is temporarily unavailable, this is another way of disrupting the supply chain.

The standard way to work around temporary breaks in supply chains is to build greater inventory, but this is expensive. Additional inventory needs to be stored and watched over. It likely needs financing, as well.

[8] The world economy today seems to be near collapse.

The self-organizing economy is now pushing the economy in many strange ways that indirectly lead to less energy consumption and eventually collapse. Even prior to COVID-19, the world economy appeared to be reaching growth limits, as indicated in Figure 1, which was published in January 2019. For example, recycling of many renewables was no longer profitable at lower oil prices after 2014. This led China to discontinue most of its recycling efforts, effective January 1, 2018, even though this change resulted in the loss of jobs. China’s car sales fell in 2018, 2019, and 2020, a strange pattern for a supposedly rapidly growing country.

The response of world leaders to COVID-19 has pushed the world economy further in the direction of contraction. Businesses that were already weak are the ones having the most difficulty in being able to operate profitably.

Furthermore, debt problems are growing around the world. For example, it is unclear whether the world will require as many shopping malls or office buildings in the future. A person would logically expect the value of the unneeded buildings to drop, reducing the value of many of these properties below their outstanding debt level.

When these issues are combined, it looks likely that the world economy may not be far from collapse, which is one of my contentions from Section [1]. It also looks like my other contentions from Section [1] are true:

(i) Low oil prices rather than high are to be expected as the economy reaches limits,

(ii) Most fossil fuel reserves will be left in the ground because of low prices, and

(iv) If the economy is not to collapse, we need energy sources providing a larger quantity of net energy per capita to offset diminishing returns.

Regarding (iv), the available energy supply from wind and solar (net or otherwise) is tiny relative to the total energy required to operate the world economy. This issue, alone, would disqualify a Great Reset using wind and solar from truly being a solution for today’s problems. Instead, plans for a Great Reset tend to act as a temporary cover-up for collapse.

our finite world

29 Comments on "Why Collapse Occurs; Why It May Not Be Far Away"

  1. Outcast_Searcher on Sun, 28th Feb 2021 10:58 am 

    A slowdown isn’t collapse. Natural economic cycles aren’t collapse when recessions occur.

    The same lip flappers have been yelling “collase” for many decades, and frequently since 1985 when I started paying attention, post college.

    Is there ANY number of times these folks are wrong, wrong, wrong, when they’ll admit fast collapse isn’t likely soon, and even if so (soon being in the next decade or three), trying to time it is futile?

    Is there ANY amount of normal market growth over time, decade after decade after decade re a diversified portfolio, including inflation hedges, these folks miss and cause their adherents to miss which is worth it, say, over the course of a career, of a retirement, or of a lifetime? ESPECIALLY since they’ve demonstrated they CANNOT time such predictions AT ALL?

    Of course not — after all, there are investment advisory fees, newsletter fees, precious metal selling commissions, Y2K bucket profits, and on and on that these self-interested clowns collect — and the adherents pay, again and again.

    Failure to learn any better than, say, bacteria isn’t a good way for humans to go through life.

    Humans adapt over time. No doubt in 5 decades or 5 centuries things will be different and humans may WELL need to learn to live with far less, and a much smaller population. However, that does NOT mean “collapse” is in our face.

    Same as it ever was. If human history shows nothing else, it does demonstrate that over time, people are quite adaptable, and there are far better ways to adapt than constantly freaking out.

  2. Outcast_Searcher on Sun, 28th Feb 2021 11:04 am 

    I just love how the lip flappers ALWAYS show the future energy graphs the SAME way. Show a sharp rise to now, and starting the next day or week or year, COLLAPSE of the entire energy sphere. Even as more energy forms like green energy grow more prevalent.

    Wrong for a decade or three or five? Just shift the same damn graph X decades to the right re the labels, adjust the details a bit for recent decades’ numbers, and wala! Done!

    As imagniative and intelligent as my house cat.

    Congratulations. /s

    At least my house cat isn’t shameful enough to try to collect money decade after decade on the same nonsense. It just wants to eat, sleep, and play.

  3. makati1 on Sun, 28th Feb 2021 4:01 pm 

    Outcast, obviously you live in the past. The “collapse” has been underway for the last 50 years, and especially since 2008. But fools like you want to believe it will never happen. So be it. I a prepared, are you?

  4. OutcastPhilosopher on Sun, 28th Feb 2021 4:06 pm 

    Outcast Searcher will be dead. No point in saving some asshole like him.

    A lot of people are going to have to go…..better to be far away from cities and people IMO….that is where a lot of the delusions reside.

  5. YouHaveToWakeUpTHereIsNoOtherWay on Sun, 28th Feb 2021 8:06 pm 

    Trudeau has already been executed for crime against humanity. Search for Trudeau on the following web page. Waiting for the execution of Legault. It is something I will welcome, fucking loser and pedophile.


    Inside Obamacare there is the word guillotine

    Don’t believe me look for yourself.


    There is a list of Canada concentration camps on the link above.



  6. YouHaveToWakeUpTHereIsNoOtherWay on Sun, 28th Feb 2021 8:54 pm 

    The goal of covid was to install military martial law through the whole world and install the NWO. The installation of martial law would have allowed them to execute dissidents from the population. See links above. Somehow the purpose of covid was redirected to ration oil. I think I might have contributed to that trough a comment I wrote on here.

    US military (with the help of informants from NSA, DHS, CIA and so on ) was able to stop this NWO and execute people who wanted to install the NWO. There are also aliens on earth hidden in DUMB. Difficult to believe, I know, but that was it is.

    See links above

  7. supremacist muzzies jerk I know some wrong when a pretty little white girl ran to a black man arms dead giveaway deeeed giveaway my neighbor got big testicles cuz we see dis dude everyday we ate ribs with this dude on Sun, 28th Feb 2021 9:45 pm 

    supertards i’m on permanent retirement i only come back to post occasionally

    our current CONvid-19 plandemic is driven by fear and YOUTUBE: “SOCIAL CONFORMITY WAITING ROOM”

    frauci: asymtomatic not drivers of plandemic
    Dr. Kary Mullis: Frauci stupid
    Frauci: PCR tests over 36 cycles is useless
    CDC: PCR cycles set at 40

    please love supremacist muzzies more
    please sukle on the muzzi cok

  8. PeakOilWillKillNWOAndGlobalTrade on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 11:54 am 

    JuanP » Mon 01 Mar 2021, 11:07:27
    “Russia TRIPLES gas supplies to China via Power of Siberia pipeline” … rts-china/

    Russia and China two dictatorial nations. They fit well together. Peak oil is here and it is time for nations of world to decouple form one another. I support de-globalization, it will happen anyway. The NWO will not happen because of peak oil, global cooling, low birth rate and White low birth rate ( no Whites people means no complex civilization, dont expect brown shit diversity to build a civilization worth living in). I fact I think the human race will be extinct by 2025.


    Putin is just another member of NWO and globalist whore exactly like China.

    Putin slams ‘caveman nationalism’ as detrimental to Russia, says every ethnicity should feel respected & at home in the country

    Personally I am a nationalist not a globalist.

  9. Biden's hairplug on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 11:57 am 

    – Too much wage disparity
    – Riots and protests by people unhappy with low wages
    – Prices of commodities that are too low for producers that need to recover their costs of production and governments that require tax revenue to fund programs for their citizens
    – An overstretched financial system; conditions ripe for debt defaults
    – Susceptibility to epidemics

    Gail is too liberal, too political correct and she stares too much onto her dull graphs to pick up signals from the real world around her, namely that the real reason for the “riots and protests” are not about wage, but about ethnicity and race. That is where the collapse will come from, not from “wage disparity” or “peak oil”. You have wage disparity in Japan or China too and the US has more access to oil and gas than Japan or China, yet in these Asian countries everything is peaceful. Why? Because these countries are ethnic homogeneous. There is no ethnic competition.

    Dream on, Gail. Somewhere, deep in your graphs resides the truth, must be. You only need stronger glasses.

  10. YouDeserverItFuckers on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 12:27 pm 

    The US is losing too much time virtue signalling and sucking up to the negro and shit brown diversity, trying to be the policemen of the world. Wasting precious time and energy. This ultimately will bring more pain and misery to people of US. Stop sucking up to Israel ,Zionist and Jews. Abolish double nationality. The US is done and nobody with an high IQ will helped them because nothing can be fixed. Collapse (chaos, death, destruction) is how nature will fix the problems in US will be fixed. The same applied to the whole world. Globalism was the worst thing that happen to the human race.

  11. MyCommentsAreCensored on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 4:20 pm 


  12. TrumpWasAIsrealRussiaWhote on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 4:43 pm 

    As far as I am concerned, Russia, China and Isreal can go fucked themself,

  13. makati1 on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 5:47 pm 

    Trum.., I agree with Israel. It should never have been given land to become a country. War mongers hiding behind a fake religion and history.

    As for Russia and China, they are the 21st century. The West is toast. Adjust!

  14. Zeke Putnam on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 7:56 pm 

    The prediction based on the past that I like is “we’ve survived in the past, we’ll survive this time”. In this world, each person believes they’ll survive.

  15. Biden's hairplug on Tue, 2nd Mar 2021 2:56 am 

    Handover ceremony 2800 Swedish military trucks to the Dutch army:

    They still drive on fossil fuel, not in the least because there aren’t that many charging poles in North-America, their main future “theater of operations”, although the Dutch army has not been informed about that yet.

    Poor Biden, he is completely losing it. Here a cringe worthy “performance” in Texas, obviously ignored by the media:

    „Good afternoon — or almost. Actually, it’s evening. And I want to thank you, Governor and Mrs. Abbott, for your hospitality and your friendship. And Representative — Senator Cornyn, I think he had to go back; I think he’s getting on a plane. He told me last — he came in to see me last event. And Representatives Sheila Jackson Lee, Al Green, Sylvia Garcia, Lizzie Pannilli — excuse me, Pannill — and — what am I doing here? I’m going to lose track here.“

    The vid here:

    Won’t be long until Harris and her heeb hubby will take over and really put the screws onto hapless whitey. Eventually, desperate European-America will fall in our continental-European hands like a ready-fried chicken.

  16. GoodLuckBrownShitDiversity on Tue, 2nd Mar 2021 9:16 am 

    Come pedo lego, you could at least put a picture of a negro not a asian. Are you racist toward negro , pedo lego.

    Ok pedo lego, I have accepted that Whites people have a low birth rate and we need immigrant. So I will step aside and let the immigrant deal with peak oil. I wish brown shit diversity a good luck

  17. PedoLegoisAtItAgain on Tue, 2nd Mar 2021 9:25 am 

    Quebec created a minister against racism.

    You found a way to upset my even more pedo lego. I guess you are doing it on purpose to upset me. Are you going to address racism against Whites, or you are going to shit on Whites people like you do all the time. You don’t seem a very intelligent man pedo lego

  18. NegroWillSaveWhitesCivilisation on Tue, 2nd Mar 2021 9:44 am 

    People people people, the USA is saved. The negro is there to save USA. I feel so revlife that we are gong back to live in mud huts.

  19. NegroWillSaveWhitesCivilisation on Tue, 2nd Mar 2021 11:10 am 

    Coldest February on Record in The Permian Basin, as 6.7 Feet (2.05m) of Snow Buries Iwamizawa City, Japan

    People,People,People Global warming is the bigest threat,they told us before calling it climate change.

    Hot Money’ Is Issuing Dire Warning On Climate Change, Financial System

    Ok pedo lego, I have accepted the fact that Whites people have a low birth rate and we need immigrants. So I will step aside and let the immigrants deal with peak oil. I wish brown shit diversity a good luck. I am to happy to transition to living the negro way, in a mud house.

  20. Biden’s hairplug on Tue, 2nd Mar 2021 2:06 pm 

    “Ex-CIA Chief Brennan Says He’s “Embarrassed” To Be A “White Male”“

    In North-America an entire race is brainwashed in denouncing itself. Bizarre.

  21. TryTheTruthYouMightLikeItOrHateIt on Tue, 2nd Mar 2021 8:20 pm 

    Some of you might like this video. At 2:35

    Breaking news…

    This support my thesis, that COVID was created to installed NWO order : Macro, Soros, Merkel, Gates and more and install themselves as leaders of the world. And probably execute people like me. Somehow we were able to use covid as a way to ratio oil.

  22. TryTheTruthYouMightLikeItOrHateIt on Tue, 2nd Mar 2021 9:53 pm 

    I remember in one of his COVID press release on YouTube pedo lego mentioned the words: New World Order. I also remember that pedo lego was really happy after the election of Bidet, he said something like this: things will change after February. Did pedo lego talk about the NWO and using medical emergency law to install himself as the dictator of Québec.

    It is well know in Quebec that pedo lego is an extremely narcissistic person and according to some people he can not anything wrongt. He has no concept of what is wrong.

    Notice the name arrest list of this web site

    Notice a couple of name taken from the link above:

    Line 75 Francois Legault Quebec premier

    Line 100 : Jacinda Arden NZ premier

    Line 230 : Scott Morsson Australia premier

  23. Biden's hairplug on Wed, 3rd Mar 2021 2:51 am 

    “Former French president Nicolas Sarkozy sentenced to jail for corruption”

    The best way to tell that ZOG-France is going down. “Sarko l’Americain”, as he is “affectionately” known in la douce France, ceremonially send to the slammer (he probably won’t spend a single day there). He was the guy responsible for taking out Khadaffi, on orders of his kiken neocohn palls in the US. Khadafi, one of the few third world leaders, who actually had created a somewhat liveable country with his oil wealth. Now Libya is a prey for Islamists and eventually Turkey, in whose Caliphate Libya probably eventually will end up.

    Sarko pledges to be innocent, but assures he won’t be back in French politics.

    As long as that is understood, sheeny-boy.

    Here Sarkozy openly stating what the global jewish agenda is: breeding whitey out of existence through the third world, so that the jews own everything:

    (our famousdrscamlion is from exactly the same mold)

    Sending Sarkozy to a concentration camp is too lenient. I’m more thinking of some serious fun in a publicly broadcasted reality tv-show, to drive home the fact that Christianity is now really over. The Romans knew perfectly well how to deal with these misfits:

    Now patiently wait for China to gain sufficiently strength and in the meantime we should complete Nord Stream 2 and deceptively pat sleepy joe on the shoulder before the real fun begins and the old order is going to be destroyed. There isn’t going to be kosher-owned world state…

  24. Biden's hairplug on Wed, 3rd Mar 2021 4:05 am 

    “Immigration Watchdog: Biden Amnesty Bill Will Grant Citizenship To 37 MILLION People”

    NumbersUSA President Rosemary Jenks went on Steve Bannon’s “War Room” on Tuesday to explain how under the bill, called the U.S. Citizenship Act, 37 million illegals would receive green cards and citizenship over 10 years. “The cost of that is the destruction of our country,” Jenks told Bannon. “We will lose our country.”

    This is excellent news for both continental Europe and US white nationalists, namely the realization that the US IS over, which paves the way for something new:


    The end of the West (=post-1945 US empire) and the US itself is around the corner. Liberation for Europe is near. And the first blow will be the entitled darkies, who think whitey is up for grabs and the second blow will be dealt by China in the SCS, Taiwan and Australia:

    “Chinese Company Plans to Build $39B City near Australia”

    These two will trigger the final avalanche that is CW2.

    With the death of both the F22 & F35 projects, continental Europe will achieve air supremacy over the US in the coming years, with its Rafales, Euro Fighters and Sukhois:

    Russian jets have already proven their worth in tilting the balance in Syria in the favor of Assad, sabotaging US regime change efforts using Jihadist hired guns.

    Forcing to choose between a certain death in East-Asia or taking the risk to resurrect, large numbers of white US GI’s will opt for the latter… and the point of no-return will have been passed.

  25. Biden's hairplug on Thu, 4th Mar 2021 3:02 am 

    “The crisis of American power: How Europeans see Biden’s America”

    – Most Europeans… do not think Biden can help America make a comeback as the pre-eminent global leader.

    – Europeans’ attitudes towards the United States have undergone a massive change. Majorities in key member states now think the US political system is broken, and that Europe cannot just rely on the US to defend it.

    – They evaluate the EU and/or their own countries’ systems much more positively than that of the US – and look to Berlin rather than Washington as the most important partner.

    – There are geopolitical consequences to American weakness. A majority believe that China will be more powerful than the US within a decade and would want their country to stay neutral in a conflict between the two superpowers. Two-thirds of respondents thought the EU should develop its defence capacities.

    – There is a great chance for a revival of Atlanticism, but Washington cannot take European alignment against China for granted. Public opinion will have a bigger effect on the relationship than it once did, and needs to be taken into account.

    Summarizing: Overlord no more. If the US wants to take on China, it can do so alone, don’t implicate the EU. China is going to beat the US (in East-Asia).

    My addition: the Europeans aren’t thinking far enough into the future and draw inevitable conclusions from “China beating the US”. Namely, that an alliance EU-Russia will be necessary to contain coming #1 China, when America will be licking its wounds after having been beaten by China, or more likely will fall apart after the raison d’être of America’s existence, namely conquering the entire world for the (((globalists))), will have been evaporated. And that the only logical way forward for balkanized Trump-Americans/patriots will be to join Greater Europe.

  26. Biden's hairplug on Sat, 6th Mar 2021 9:44 am 

    Westminster SNP leader: likely independence referendum in Scotland later this year.

    Latest poll 53% pro SC-indy, NI 43%, Wales 39% (highest ever):

    In 12 months time the results of Brexit should be clear for everybody to see.

    Expect relations EU-UK to rapidly deteriorate in the coming months:

    (Secret understanding EU-Russia-China probably in place).

    Russian candidates for Eurovision 2021 in Rotterdam. Shows precisely why Russia is such an ideal ally for the EU. 100%. It’s Russian “backwardness” that makes it so attractive.

    Bye-bye globalists!

  27. Biden's hairplug on Sat, 6th Mar 2021 9:50 am 

    “Why Collapse Occurs; Why It May Not Be Far Away”


    “‘The UK is over’: Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford claims the Union is ‘not sustainable’ and should be a ‘voluntary association’ of four nations”

    As I have repeatedly said: Anglosphere is over. Expect the UK, US and Canada to fall apart and Down Under to disappear in the hungry belly of the Red Dragon.

    Fortunately, the hearts of the continental Europeans are so big that we’ll gladly take in all the “huddled masses”, from Down Under, from North-America, from Russia and start all over again, this time not as a set of competing nations, but as one giant unified Eurosphere.

  28. Biden's hairplug on Tue, 9th Mar 2021 9:24 am 

    JH Kunstler may have lots to wish for regarding solid views on energy, but regarding “current affairs” he is “right on the money”:

    “Tomorrow and Tomorrow and Kaboom”

    The only other question for now is when do the different population groups in this land explode in violence? The group loosely bundled as “Red” is angry enough with the ongoing insults of Wokery, failed rule-of-law, and abridgments of basic constitutional rights. The states where they dominate are likely to resist any more fiats by the federal government, like the imminent attempt to confiscate firearms. The “Blue” auxiliary armies are beyond their creators’ control. Antifa will be ready to rock-and-roll in the streets with good weather because so many young people have absolutely no prospects to thrive in the collapsing economy, and the streets have become their social space, with so little money for lattes and beers. And BLM need look no further than the Derek Chauvin trial in Minnesota, starting today, for an excuse to resume its characteristic activities.

  29. Biden's hairplug on Tue, 9th Mar 2021 9:45 am 

    Talking about collapse, how about the UK:

    Bring in sufficient people of incompatible identities, and they will begin to change your country into a pressure cooker, the cheap one, without a thermostat. You will have inter-ethnic competition, the so-called minorities will begin to demonize you, your traditions, your history, not to mention your future. Nice present day examples are: the US, Israel (Palestinians), China (Uighurs), Turkey (Kurds), Syria, Iraq, the list goes on.

    In Britain, a US mulatto is busy destroying the Royal Family, supported by her Aryan hubby, officially a “Royal”, but mostly a son of his commoner mother Diana, whose death he blames on said family (most likely her death was a MI6-hit). Harry and Meghan are busy with a very woke revenge exercise, Meghan no doubt with an eye on “2024”, Harry to revenge his mother.

    This is a drama of true Shakespearean dimensions, that coincides with that other Drama, Brexit, that has the real prospect of England not only losing Scotland, but also Ulster and even Wales. Some say that even Cornwall has an identity-with-an-attitude, which could result in a Celtic Republic, that could look like this:

    The trouble for Westminster is that the case for independence makes great sense.

    Take the Irish. That nation was formerly known for too much whiskey and too few potatoes. Thanks to the EU and direct US investment (because the Irish conveniently speak some sort of English), Ireland is now the richest country in the EU, where UK-province Northern Ireland is even poorer than Bulgaria! Do the math. Can the good people of Ulster really be tempted to be held prisoner in a country where they earn THREE times less than their southern neighbors?

    In Holland we have a saying:

    No need to translate this for Anglophones. This wisdom certainly applies to Scottish and Welsh sheep as well:

    “The United Kingdom ‘is over’, Drakeford says”

    That thundering laughter you can hear in the distance in London-Westminster comes from the East, from where Brussels is situated.

    Brexit, game, set and match for the EU.

    For an overview of the economic disaster that is Brexit, hear a fine channel:

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