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Page added on March 14, 2022

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There are not enough BTUs

There are not enough BTUs thumbnail

Let me hear you say “Rebirth!”

Y’all not ready for it.

Y’all ready for it?

Rebirth Brass Band, The Main Event

Change is here. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the West’s response have initiated a change in global commodity balances. Supply is being forced offline. Demand is shifting in response and in some cases manifests as a government-sponsored price insensitive mandate. Inventories are not a cushion but a psychological drag.

Buckle up.

Our framework assumes no peace, no victory, and no capitulation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The longer Russia persists, the more barbaric grows the conflict, the more steadfast grows the West in its imposition and maintenance of sanctions.

The following are our latest thoughts on the fallout in crude and natural gas markets after a torrid week of Russia-related news flow.

Russia shut-ins likely.

European bull in LNG china shop.

Not enough BTUs.

Crude Oil

Russia produces about 11 million bbl/d crude and liquids.

Russia crude oil production
Source: JODI

The country exports about 5 mmbbl/d production abroad.

Russia crude oil production, exports, consumption (mmbbl/d)
Source: Bloomberg, EIA, JODI, IEA

Some 60% of Russia’s crude exports are destined for the European Union.

Russia crude & condensate exports by destination (EIA)
Source: EIA

When the US, EU, UK and allies announced sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, they carefully and explicitly exempted energy from the list of verboten goods or services. Nevertheless, crude rallied on a combination of fears of potential future energy sanctions and widespread reports of crude buyers self-sanctioning.

Brent prompt month $/bbl
Source: Bloomberg

The reality on the ground wasn’t moving near as fast.

Russian production continued uninterrupted through the first week of March, at a stable average 11.0 mmbbl/d according to Kommersant.

Kpler reports crude oil exports holding steady at circa 5 mmbbl/d.

Major Russian port crude exports (mmbbl/d)
Source: Kpler

Inclusive of roughly 3 mmbbl/d of crude exports to OECD Europe.

Russian crude exports to OECD Europe (mmbbl/d)
Source: Kpler

The pain has yet to be felt in the physical crude market. Oil is actually still moving today.

Feeling relief on near-term availability, the market has faded the panic buying that set in following the severe sanctions announcements.

Brent/WTI timespreads
Source: Bloomberg

The risk is not in today’s barrels, but tomorrow’s.

There is growing concern that Russian crude flow issues will materialize in the coming weeks as the first post-invasion loading programs come to market. Old bookings are clearing. But new bookings have stopped.

This chart will hook down, but no one knows how far down.

Russia Urals crude loadings (bbl/d)
Source: Bloomberg

An estimated 7 million barrels of crude is stuck await passage through the Bosporus Strait.

Black Sea crude oil tankers
Source: Bloomberg

According to Bloomberg, for the past week a quarter of the Aframax vessels (avg 750,000 bbl capacity) in Russia’s state-owned Sovcomflot’s fleet have just been idling in waters off the European coasts after having discharged their cargoes. Normally, they’d head back to port to load more crude or products.

Sovcomflot Aframax fleet
Source: Bloomberg

We’re left assuming they’re not loading because they don’t know where to sell these future hypothetical cargoes – at least for westbound trade.

Western Russia crude oil (red) & natural gas (green) pipelines
Source: National Geographic

Western buyers are concluding pre-invasion purchase commitments and clearly backing away from future purchases of Russian crude.

Even Russian Deputy PM Alexander Novak (begrudgingly) acknowledged that April crude oil exports are “facing some problems” after carrying out full contracting for March.

For now, flows continue, albeit with an order of magnitude higher uncertainty. Cargoes are today loading either without sales commitments or under tentative plans to trek to Asia.

The ultimate fate of 70% of Russian crude destined for seaborne markets is up in the air, thanks to widespread Western buyer ostracization. Not quite at “no-bid” levels yet, Urals discount of $30/bbl to Brent is a marked hit relative to historical levels.

Russian Urals price differential to Brent ($/bbl)
Source: Bloomberg, company reports

Pre-invasion crude exports to US/Europe of 3 mmbbl/d are headed much lower. Exactly how much lower remains to be seen. In the meantime, Russia faces an urgent need to place its crude elsewhere. With less than a month of storage in the country, Russia either finds new buyers or shuts in.

Where will the displaced barrels go? The list of consequential crude buyers that has not condemned the Ukrainian invasion is a short one. Pretty much China and India.

Investment in Russia oil and gas by investing firm’s home country (2000-2021)
Source: Bloomberg

China is the biggest target with 10-11 mmbbl/d total crude imports on circa 5 mmbbl/d demand.

China crude oil imports (mbbl/d)
Source: Bloomberg

Already importing 3 mmbbl/d of crude of similar quality (sour 31-32 deg API), China could theoretically displace 2 mmbbl/d of non-Russian imports to accommodate more Urals.

China crude imports by grade (deg API, mbbl/d)
Source: Goldman Sachs

Problem is, it’s not happening yet. When the home of the globe’s second largest refining capacity isn’t making room for Russia’s crude, it’s an issue.

With Asia as the only likely destination for a multi-million bb/d change in global crude flows, the dearth of new supertanker bookings for delivery to China is telling. Sinopec, one of the largest global purchasers of Urals crude, has added precisely zero new supertankers to its shipping commitments since the invasion.

China’s independent teapot refineries are facing commercial and legal uncertainties and are not seem positioned to absorb the now homeless Russian barrels. The teapots, already importing Russian crudes for 20% of their feedstocks, are said to be looking at run cuts in the coming months with margins dipping into negative territory.

China Shandong independent refineries run rates

Further exacerbating China’s refining pressure in the short term is the country’s system of regulated retail fuel prices. Meant to offer stability to consumers, China’s National Development and Reform Commission sets fuel prices twice a month. But in periods of rapid crude price appreciation, the downstream pricing mechanism serves as a deterrent to production. When crude costs more than refined products, don’t expect the refiners to run harder.

Source: Bloomberg

Chinese buyers are scrambling to modify commercial arrangements just to keep existing oil flows in check. Russian producers are allowing Chinese buyers to procure oil without traditional letters of credit backed by banks just to continue sales.

According to industry reports, Chinese and other Asian buyers are not yet considering new Russian crude oil purchases. Like the rest of the world, China is evaluating its exposure to Russia in the aftermath of global condemnation of the Ukrainian invasion. They’re approaching the newly-sanctioned Russia with a degree of conservatism. As of today, it is not eager to deepen commercial linkages to Russian crude.

We think it probable that China increases its purchases of Russian barrels over time, but not enough to offset losses elsewhere, and not soon enough for Russia’s liking. If a bailout is coming from Chinese buyers, it is not imminent.

As the third largest energy consumer in the world, India stands out as the next best destination for Russian crude, though at less than half of China’s import scale, it will be a tall order for the country to take a meaningful slice of the barrels lost to sanctions.

India crude oil imports (kbbl/d)
Source: Bloomberg

After a Urals buying spree in late February, Indian buyers haven’t aggressively stepped back into the market for Russian crude.

Russian efforts to build a crude bridge to India have not been rebuffed, nor have they yielded an uptick in orders. From India’s The Hindu newspaper:

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had reportedly said Russia had made an “open offer” to India to sell crude oil at a discounted price, but that many factors would decide the government’s final decision.

A decision to purchase more oil from Russia would also have to be weighed against the adverse reaction from India’s American and European partners who want to “isolate Russia” economically. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar had said last month that India does not follow “unilateral sanctions”, however, in 2019, India did bow to U.S. demands that it “zero out” all its oil imports from Iran.

Like China, we expect India to increase Russian crude purchases in time, but again not enough to displace lost barrels and not soon enough.

The new crude math becomes a challenge, even under the conservative assumption wherein the Western alliance continues to exempt energy from its sanctions regime. With sharply reduced sales to the West, China and India should be able to increase Russian crude buys 1.0-1.5 mmbbl/d, putting Russia at risk of having to shut in 1.0-2.0 mmbbl/d of production once domestic storage is fully utilized.

Russia crude oil production, exports, consumption (mmbbl/d) – post sanction base case
Source: Bloomberg, EIA, JODI, IEA, Viscosity Redux

The situation further tightens if the West increases pressure and directly sanctions Russian crude oil sales. Russian production loss would exceed 2 mmbbl/d, a large portion of which would be at risk of permanent loss given the nature of Russia’s energy infrastructure.

Digging out of the hole

Bury me softly in this womb
I give this part of me for you
Sand rains down and here I sit
Holding rare flowers
In a tomb, in bloom
Down in a hole and I don’t know if I can be saved

Alice in Chains, “Down in a Hole”

Pre-Ukraine invasion, market consensus expected a global crude market to transition from deficit in 2021 to a balanced/slightly long market in 2022 and 2023. In the chart below, the red line shows quarterly expectations for inventory draws or builds.

Production, Consumption, and Inventories – before Ukraine invasion
Source: EIA, Viscosity Redux

For a global market that was already navigating unseasonably low inventories, the imminent loss of 1.5 mmbbl/d Russian supply presents a material headwind in restocking.

OECD crude oil inventories
Source: Bloomberg

Atop this, we throw this weekend’s setback in Iran nuclear negotiations.

“Talks are being halted, European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Twitter, after negotiators failed to bridge major differences over how to restore the landmark accord abandoned by the Trump administration in 2018.”

A quick 0.5-1.0 mmbbl/d uptick in Iranian supply on the market would have gone a good ways to soothe pending shock of Russian production losses. Alas, as of this weekend, the market must continue to wait.

In a nod to the art of subtlety, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard took credit this weekend for a ballistic missile strike in Erbil, Kurdistan that hit the US consulate among other targets. We’re thinking no Iran deal this week.

Ballistic missiles hit Iraq’s Kurdish capital, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claim responsibility

Iran crude oil production (mbbl/d)
Source: Bloomberg

And what of the rest of (non-exempt) OPEC+?

14 of the group’s 19 members are producing below their quotas, raising questions about the aggregate deliverability. The consortium’s production last month fell 0.8 mmbbl/d short of target – again.

A moving target at best, “spare capacity” has been an overhang on the group since it began to unwind its 2020 production cuts. Only Saudi Arabia and UAE have (vaguely quantified) reliable spare capacity on the order of 3 mmbbl/d.

OPEC spare capacity
Source: Platts

Until proven otherwise, the market will risk the group’s production surge capability. Uncertainties surrounding the ability of member countries apart from Saudi Arabia and UAE to grow volumes will find the market heavily risking any OPEC+ production greater than 2.0 mm bbl/d above today’s level.

Saudia Arabic & UAE production
Source: Bloomberg

US is growing at an amazingly measured pace. Recent commentary broadly suggests public players stick to their capital plans with no plans to aggressively ramp activity in response to stronger prices.

Source: Bloomberg

What doesn’t help goad the industry into more activity? Threatening windfall profits tax, urging some form of nationalization via the Defense Production Act, or crude prices that swing $25/bbl in a day.

Source: Bloomberg

Crude oil is a 100 mmbbl/d market that swings wildly on imbalances of 0.1-0.2 mmbbl/d. Precision is fool’s errand. But if the market must contemplate 1-2 mmbbl/d loss of supply from Russia, offset in part by higher Saudi/UAE production, other factors in the balancing equation are on the margin. The IEA’s coordinated SPR release will help a bit, just a bit. Incremental Venezuelan barrels (ironically dependent on again-stalled Iranian condensate) would help just a bit.

If Russia’s war continues and the West does not relent on sanctions, we expect crude buyers to continue to ostracize Russian crude. There is not adequate global supply to offset a Russian supply loss AND rebuild global inventories. We expect crude draws throughout 2022 – before we factor in the growing likelihood of gas-to-crude substitution in 2H22.

Production, Consumption, and Inventories – base case
Source: EIA, Viscosity Redux

The crude curve looks undervalued to us, particularly when viewed in comparison to the curve on the last day before Russia’s invasion.

Brent crude curve
Source: Bloomberg

Natural Gas

Where we find in oil a tight market getting tighter, we find in European gas a tight market getting progressively looser, albeit with an enormous tail risk.

Lest we forget, Europe is recklessly dependent on Russia for its natural gas supply.

Russia natural gas exports by destination (EIA)
Source: EIA

Europe entered Fall 2021 running at a deficit to normal storage inventory levels.

Europe gas storage % full
Source: Bloomberg

The storage deficit was largely attributable to lower imports from Russia, which dropped essentially to minimum take-or-pay levels beginning in 4Q21.

Russia gas exports to Northwest Europe
Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, imports from Russia increased noticeably in the immediate aftermath of the invasion on 2/24 owing to a commercial quirk that incentivizes buyers to take more gas when spot prices exceed futures prices.

Russian gas imports to NWE by entry point
Source: Bloomberg

Bailed out in recent weeks by a mild end to winter and an influx of LNG imports, the storage situation has improved from frighteningly tight to just really tight.

LNG imports into Northwest Europe
Source: Bloomberg

Northwest Europe goes into this year’s natural gas restocking period with low inventories and faces an EU mandate of refilling storage to 90% capacity before the onset of next winter. From an already low starting point, this will be a daunting challenge. The next six months will see a fascinating experiment in meeting inelastic demand.

Europe Gas Storage (bcm)
Source: Bloomberg

Short natural gas, Europe is heavily dependent on natural gas imports to meet demand. Apart from Russia, Europe sources natural gas via pipeline from Norway, North Africa, and Azerbaijan, and brings in gas via LNG as well.

Europe major gas pipelines
Source: Reuters

The decision tree on how Europe refills storage this year is brutally short.

Gas flows from Azerbaijan and North Africa are near max capacity.

Norway, already supplying 40% of Europe’s imported pipeline volumes, is running about as hard as it can. Incremental supply will be limited.

Norway gas exports to continental Europe (bcm/d)
Source: Bloomberg

Europe needs to refill storage as fast as possible. The only upside for volumes is via Russia and LNG.

Regarding Russia, we turn to the European Commission’s March 8 REPowerEU announcement of a “plan to make Europe independent from Russian fossil fuels well before 2030, starting with gas, in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”

REPowerEU calls for Europe to reduce demand for Russian gas by two thirds by YE22. Amongst several other proposals, the 2022 Russia cutoff will come in the form of 50 bcm LNG diversification and 10 bcm pipeline import diversification. For readers less accustomed to metric units, Europe plans in 2022 to displace just over 2 Tcf of Russian gas imports with LNG and new piped gas. That’s a lot of gas.

50 bcm of incremental LNG will be a tall (and expensive) order placed to liquefaction providers in Qatar, US, Egypt, and West Africa according to the report. Industry estimates that global LNG volumes available for trade in the spot/resale market are 130 bcm this year. The incremental 50 bcm demand announcement is the opening shot of a bidding war.

European buyers, under EU policy mandate, will be a large buyer in the already tight LNG market. To meet its storage targets, Europe will have to bid LNG cargoes away from Asia throughout the year. We expect price competition to be especially heated during the high demand summer season, when it’s likely Asia will have to resort to diesel for peak power gen needs. How Europe fares this summer in refilling storage will dictate how high prices go next winter.

Europe gas, Asia LNG, diesel price $/MMBTU
Source: Bloomberg

The fat tail scenario for Europe – Russia gas goes to zero. Russia’s oil sales are 30% of the country’s revenues, but the gas market is only 6% of the state’s budget. A total loss of Russian volumes into Europe would be catastrophic. As in – industrial shutdowns, blackouts, hypothermia catastrophic.

The one-sided balance of power with respect to natural gas leads us to expect that Europe will not sanction gas, but Russia will hold its volumes as a sword of Damocles over the continent to extract maximum value from its position. Just like it did last Monday.

Source: Bloomberg

In a worst-case scenario wherein Russia cuts all natural gas exports to Europe starting in April, the region can forget replenishing inventories. All gas in storage will be depleted in 3Q22 and the market moves into disaster demand destruction.

Lights out.

In the meantime, the gas flows and Europe urgently seeks new sources to refill storage over the coming six months. Fluctuating wildly between $20-60/MMBTU over the last few months, higher natural gas costs are already having an impact on industry.

Source: Bloomberg

Not only steel.

Source: Bloomberg

Widespread subsidies, including new ones proposed by the EU Commission such as price limits and fuel tax cuts, will shift the cost burden to the state and exacerbate tightness in the physical markets.

Source: Bloomberg

Once shoulder season turns to A/C season this summer, we expect tight global gas balances to push up prices for LNG, regional natural gas, and substitute fuel sources.


A global buyers’ embargo is forcing incremental tightness on crude oil and natural gas markets already struggling with tight supply/demand balances. These are the marks of the first turns in the Energy New World Order. It will be a volatile disruption of the status quo ex ante.

The energy tension between Russia and Europe will serve as the barometer for the speed and violence of the realignment of the global energy markets. Energy security matters more, marginal returns matter less.

Demand is the governor and for now, demand is holding in.

Global 11-city average congestion above baseline “traffic-less” 1 hr travel time
Source: Bloomberg

How demand holds up as spare capacity is whittled away and demand ramps seasonally will be the determinant on how long Energy can work and the global economy can slog through this disruption.


Viscosity Redux

[email protected]

16 Comments on "There are not enough BTUs"

  1. FamousDrScanlon on Mon, 14th Mar 2022 2:47 pm 

    Methane emissions are far higher than countries claim, report suggests

    The IEA said its annual Global Methane Tracker report shows emissions from the energy sector grew by almost five per cent last year. It said the volume of methane leaked amounted to about 180 billion cubic metres of natural gas.

    “That is equivalent to all the gas used in Europe’s power sector and more than enough to ease today’s market tightness,” the IEA said.

    There’s your BTU bitches

  2. Theedrich on Mon, 14th Mar 2022 4:42 pm 

    The U.S. would lose much more than Russia in war. America is highly complexified and dependent on technology of all sorts.  Russia is in many ways much more rural and “pre-modern” compared to the Empire.  Although a thermonuclear exchange would plunge both countries back into the Stone Age, there would be absolutely no hope of recuperation for the United States ever.  A very few people, like the religious, technology-avoiding Amish, might survive in isolated farming areas, but 99% of the population, if not killed outright, would die of starvation and in fighting over whatever might be left.  In contrast, vast, low-tech, thinly populated Russia might have a chance of recovery after several centuries.

    America cannot exist without the fossil-fueled vehicle.  Once that is gone, America itself will be gone.  The decline in the affordability of vehicular transportation of humans and goods by land, sea and air, is the ultimate death sentence for the Empire.  And electric vehicles are nothing more than a make-believe chastity belt.  The calculating stringpullers behind the democratic mask know this quite well.  That is the ultimate reason for their drive to destroy Russia via Ukraine and plunder Russia’s oil, gas and other natural resources.  A veil of virtuousness hides their criminality.  Videos of fleeing and sobbing women and children, of bombed-out Ukrainian cityscapes, incite indignation and revenge in clueless TV-hypnotizees.  The delivery of lethal weaponry and foreign(?) mercenaries into Ukraine becomes justified in the mind of such viewers.  The U.S. Ministry of Propaganda, after all, is the best in the world.

    The other day a number of Russian missiles struck Yavoriv, Ukraine’s import base for weapons and mercenaries from NATO.  It would be nice to know whether any of the 35 reported killed there were some of the “Canadian” mercenaries who are being paid with American dollars at the same time that White House pretends to be discouraging American veterans (or other U.S.-based covert elements) from joining in the fracas.  (And meanwhile the corrupt treachery of Biden and his family is completely “forgotten” by the media.)

    Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett advised Ukraine’s Prez Zelensky to accept Russia’s terms for peace.  Zelensky, however, indignantly rejected the advice, since he is sure the Empire will save him.  He knows that the American regime, eager for world conquest, is intent on destroying Russia.

    The American proxy war in Ukraine against Russia may well succeed.  But — win, lose, or draw — the Empire is destined to follow its many forebears to the grave, no matter how many weapons or satellites it has.  Because it has chosen to turn humanity into a criminal species.

    And that is what leads to the death of intelligent-life-bearing planets everywhere throughout the cosmos.

  3. Duncan Idaho on Mon, 14th Mar 2022 6:03 pm 

    Trump’s latest boondoggle is sinking like a stone

    “The track record for business ventures run by Donald Trump is abysmal in the extreme. He bankrupted four casinos. He was ordered to pay $25 million in restitution to victims of his Trump University con. His fraudulent “charity” was shuttered by authorities in New York. And his numerous self-branded projects – from airlines to games to steaks to vodka – all went bust in a hurry. Even his real estate properties are losers.”

    The Fat Boy is a loser.
    But, clueless Merikins love him!
    Over 50% of Merikings read at less than a 6th Grade level.
    In other words, they are illiterate.

  4. Duncan Idaho on Tue, 15th Mar 2022 10:48 am 

    “Did you really think–and be honest now–that bragging about grabbing women by their genitals was just “locker room talk,” and therefore inoffensive? Really? And were you, honestly and truly, ok with Trump advising us all that the COVID virus was a hoax, or even if it wasn’t, we didn’t need to wear masks, or that we’d be ok if we’d just shine lights in our orifices, drink bleach, or take medicine intended for de-worming hoofed animals? If you bought all that and loads more without qualm or question, and if you still cling to that bullshit, you are once more directed to start over. This really is a test you don’t want to blow.”

  5. Cloggie on Tue, 15th Mar 2022 1:05 pm 

    “China Announces 450 GW Wind and Solar”

    Meet the next #1.

    And the insane West offers Russia and its resources on a silver platter to China.

    What a bunch of morons!

  6. ILoveHellAndIWantMore on Tue, 15th Mar 2022 3:21 pm 

    We did it or I guess you did it. We finally installed a new reality. If you are using my energy to install a new reality I am all for it. After my energy should be used to amuse me, me energy is not there to amused parasitic archons, reptilians and energetic parasites. My energy is there to amuse me.

    We are finally creating a dystopian hellish nightmarish reality. I saw a little girl with the skin around her eyes red, I thought about I am in hell and I love it. She had this hellish look when she look at me with the skin around the white of eyes red.

    6:09 look dystopian

    10:50 look dystopian

  7. ILoveHellAndIWantMore on Tue, 15th Mar 2022 3:33 pm 

    1:54 hands on the little girl hair. I want more of this dystopian hellish nightmarish reality. It my energy structure that you did hack and modified for your benefits: archons, reptilians and energetic parasites’. It is time for me to benefit from my own energy and amused my myself.

  8. EarthIsAGarbageCan on Tue, 15th Mar 2022 8:52 pm 

    Look like a energy ghost without an organic body. I had young kids smiling at me. I felt that the smile was fake. The smile was too perfect and too human. I felt that the children was not organic. This catch pretty well the vibe, when I had some news born smiling at me out of nowhere

    5:26 look like an energetic parasite. Same as small kids smiling to you.

    We have everything on earth. It is a big garbage can full or energetic predators. Earth has to be destroyed.

  9. Cloggie on Wed, 16th Mar 2022 4:50 am 

    “Minutes Work for a Liter of Gasoline”

  10. Dredd on Wed, 16th Mar 2022 7:44 am 

    “There are not enough BTUs”

    Especially in GenBank.

    My efforts to help out so far have failed (It’s In The GenBank – 4).

  11. Biden's hairplug on Wed, 16th Mar 2022 9:51 am 

    Who needs BTUs if you have legs and a bike?

    Part 4/4 of a cycling journey of 20,000 km and 2 years, from Vancouver [*] to Cape Horn [*], the southern tip of South-America:

    Spectacular landscapes, salt flats, Andes mountains!

    [*] both names of Dutch origin. Yeah, that darn 17th century, our century.

  12. Cloggie on Sun, 20th Mar 2022 9:32 am 

    The addiction to oil in a picture…

  13. FamousDrScanlon on Sun, 20th Mar 2022 1:48 pm 

    Dutch Golden Age. So why did it end?

  14. Biden’s hairplug on Sun, 20th Mar 2022 3:13 pm 

    “Dutch Golden Age. So why did it end?“

    Because in 1672, the Netherlands were under simultaneous attack by all its neighbors: French, English, Germans:

    And then, for the first time in modern history, the jews stepped forward and came to the rescue with their money and offered to fund a military invasion by the Dutch of England, the most daring thing the Dutch ever did:

    The tiny Netherlands invaded a much larger country, in order to grab its fiscal resources, in order to keep an even larger country in check: Louis-14 France.

    The jewish interest was to create a second, larger protestant=judeophile country in the world. In return for their financial service, they would obtain the British central bank, the nucleus of the later city of London.

    To answer your question: the Dutch Golden Age ended because the Dutch success formulae (protestantism, capitalism, central banking) was carried over to a much larger country. Add to that James Watt and his steam engine, which was much more effective than our windmills, and the Netherland were eclipsed by the British and ramned back to the 2nd tier in the 4th and last Anglo-Dutch sea war, a war of revenge for the decisive Dutch contribution to American independence, at the cost of the British.

  15. FamousDrScanlon on Sun, 20th Mar 2022 5:19 pm 

    “The truth is, the 13 colonies would never have earned their freedom without French intervention — the whole battle for American independence was essentially a proxy war between Britain and France. To the French, America was nothing but another theater in their grand blood feud against Britain. They were all about making the Englishmen eat every last available dick, and since they noticed they could use the colonists’ struggle for independence as a handy feeding pen, that’s exactly what they did.”

  16. Biden's hairplug on Sun, 20th Mar 2022 6:53 pm 

    “The truth is, the 13 colonies would never have earned their freedom without French intervention — the whole battle for American independence was essentially a proxy war between Britain and France. To the French, America was nothing but another theater in their grand blood feud against Britain.”

    The Americans were indeed mostly walking into the way, depressed and going nowhere, the Americans war of independence was mostly a European war on North-American soil.

    But the crackheads you cite overlooked the role of the Dutch, something your Barbara Tuchman elaborated upon:

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