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The World Is Failing In Both Energy Affordability And Climate Goals

The World Is Failing In Both Energy Affordability And Climate Goals thumbnail
  • Global energy investment is forecast to rise by 8 percent to $2.4 trillion this year.
  • Investment in renewables is rising, but it’s nowhere near the levels necessary to limit global warming within a 1.5 degrees Celsius increase.
  • IEA: Inflation has brought the first increases in the cost of renewables in a decade.
  • U.S. shale spending remains far below 2019 levels in 2022.

Global energy investment is on the rise and expected to grow by 8 percent annually this year, pushed up by record spending on clean energy, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its new report World Energy Investment 2022.

On the face of it, that’s great news for global energy supply and climate goals. But in reality, the rising trend is a function of galloping inflation, a deepening divide between developed and emerging economies’ investment trends, and an increase in coal investments as the biggest economies in Asia prioritize energy security amid soaring energy prices and upended energy markets following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“As things stand, today’s energy investment trends show a world falling short on climate goals, and on reliable and affordable energy,” the IEA itself admitted as much in its report.

Inflation To Eat Up Nearly Half Of Investment Increase

Global energy investment is forecast to rise by 8 percent to $2.4 trillion this year, with renewables and grid investments increasing at the fastest pace.

Still, nearly half of the $200 billion increase in investment in 2022 is likely to be eaten up by higher costs rather than bringing additional energy supply capacity or savings. Costs are soaring amid supply chain pressures, tight labor, and energy services markets, and surging steel and cement prices, the Paris-based agency said.

Inflation has also brought the first increases in the cost of renewables in a decade, and as capital-intensive technologies, renewables face a stronger impact from pressures affecting the cost of raw materials and financing than other forms of power generation, the IEA notes.

“Renewable equipment manufacturers are passing on some of these pressures in their products, with increases in the cost of solar PV panels and wind turbines of 10-20% and attempts to renegotiate existing contracts, depending on the technology and region,” the agency said.

Cost pressures could raise the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) from variable renewables by 20-30 percent this year compared to 2020.

Nevertheless, the IEA says, investment in renewables remains attractive due to the role of clean energy in the energy transition, especially if backed by supportive government policies and incentives.

Renewable Investment Is A Tale Of Two Worlds

While renewables investment and capacity installations are continuously rising in developed economies and China, the developing and emerging economies are stuck at the same level of clean energy investment as in 2015, when the Paris Agreement was signed, the IEA’s estimates showed.

Apart from some bright spots such as growth in wind and solar in Brazil and utility-scale renewables in India, the developing economies except China struggle to see renewable energy investment take off. Those major regional variations in clean energy investment “underline the risk of new dividing lines on energy and climate,” the IEA notes, adding that “overall, the relative weakness of clean energy investment across much of the developing world is one of the most worrying trends revealed by our analysis.”

The cost of capital can be up to seven times higher in developing markets than in advanced economies. Moreover, in developing economies excluding China, public funds to back renewables are lacking, policy frameworks are often weak, economies are threatened by soaring inflation and increased poverty, and borrowing costs are rising.

“Much more needs to be done to bridge the gap between emerging and developing economies’ one-fifth share of global clean energy investment, and their two-thirds share of the global population,” the IEA said.

Fossil Fuel Investment Caught Between Climate Goals And Energy Security

Investment in renewables is rising, but it’s nowhere near the levels necessary to limit global warming within a 1.5 degrees Celsius increase. At the same time, investment in fossil fuels, including coal, is set to increase this year, undermining the global pathway to climate goals on the one hand, but still insufficient to meet rising global energy demand, on the other hand.

Overall, today’s oil and gas spending is caught between two visions of the future: it is too high for a pathway aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5 °C but not enough to satisfy rising demand in a scenario where governments stick with today’s policy settings and fail to deliver on their climate pledges,” the IEA said.

Investment in new coal supply is rising amid energy security concerns.

“High prices and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine mean that fuel supply investment is currently viewed through an energy security lens, but climate pressures cannot be put aside,” the IEA said.

Investment in coal supply jumped by 10 percent last year, led by Asia, and is likely to rise by another 10 percent this year to reach $116 billion, which would be higher than the 2019 investment of $104 billion.

In upstream oil and gas, investment is also set for a 10-percent rise this year, to $417 billion, but it lags the $500 billion investment in 2019, per the IEA’s estimates. Moreover, cost escalation is diminishing the impact of higher spending on activity levels. Only the national oil companies in the Middle Eastern oil exporters are set to spend more this year than in 2019, as Saudi Arabia and the UAE look to boost oil production capacity.

Despite an expected increase of U.S. shale investments, the level of 2022 spending is still expected to be around 30 percent below 2019 levels, as operators focus on profitability and capital discipline rather than production expansion, the IEA noted.

In refining, the sector saw in 2021 the first net reduction in global capacity for the first time in 30 years, as near-record levels of capacity were retired in 2020 and 2021, contributing to the current tightness in global fuel markets. Investment in refining, however, is not certain going forward, the IEA says.

“However, the strong financial performance and high utilisation rates seen in recent months may not necessarily translate into higher investment levels given lingering uncertainty around the long-term outlook for oil demand.”

OilPrice.com



76 Comments on "The World Is Failing In Both Energy Affordability And Climate Goals"

  1. Biden’s hairplug on Sat, 2nd Jul 2022 11:48 pm 

    Nobody better represents the decline of America, in the public eye, even with his Australian buddies, who for their naked survival against China, utterly depend on the US… than this Democrat:

    https://youtu.be/CaaBHBLlj6s

    Australia will be to China, what Ukraine is to Russia: a tasty piece of red meat, thrown to the Dragon and Bear resp. by the US empire, in the hope that it will suffocate the two animals.

    It won’t, they will only grow fatter and stronger from that piece of easy meat.

    NATO and AUKUS, the two last convulsions of empire. Just follow apneaman for the correct interpretation of the failings of his adored “invincible” neocons.

  2. FamousDrScanlon on Sun, 3rd Jul 2022 1:54 am 

    clog, Neocon jews are working jews and not all neocons are jews. Some of their masters are jews but not all of their masters are jews. There are also plenty of jews who hate us neo cons.

    Sorry to confuse you with all those shades of grey clog, but I don’t do black & white cartoon worldviews.

    The important thing to remember is all that all jews are superior to you and you’ve wasted your life crying about in and no one cares.

    You are a senior citizen who spends all day every day claiming the end is nigh for the US empire & Jews.

    No doubt the US empire is on it’s inevitable way out but that could be in 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 – you might not be around to see it. Perhaps 9/11 cinched it? Who knows? Historians always pick these collapse dates when the people who were there never thought there was any difference from one day to the next. The date picking is a dumb white man sport whether done by hobbyist like you or PhD assholes.

  3. Biden's hairplug on Sun, 3rd Jul 2022 6:21 am 

    “Neocon jews are working jews and not all neocons are jews.”

    Correct, but that is irrelevant, because those in power and who determine US foreign policy ARE predominantly neocons.

    John Mearsheimer wrote a book about the decisive role of neocons/Israel Lobby in bringing about the Iraq War (and never was refuted, just ignored).

    Hope he finds the time to do the same regarding Ukraine and Euro-Maidan.

    Or, while he is at it, write a book about the Israel Lobby and bringing about WW2:

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/25/chamberlain-and-the-forrestal-diaries/

    Probably a bridge too far for good old libtard John.

    Jews think they are “God’s Chosen People” and that they have a right to own the entire world as the world’s elite and destined to rule over and own the “goyim”. In easy meat US they succeeded since 1933, until today, with minor hickups like JFK, Nixon and Trump to deal with.

    However, Eurasia will prove to be a bridge too far for our kosher troublemakers. The neocons are going to lose (as in: not win) in Ukraine and be outright defeated in East-Asia by China and North-Korea (the latter will deal with South-Korea), China itself with Taiwan and Philippines. Japan will simply refuse to fight for the US, if push comes to shove.

    That loss will trigger CW2 and that will spell the end of the global prominent role of the Jews in the 20th century, correctly described by this jew as the “Jewish Century”:

    https://www.amazon.com/Jewish-Century-New-Yuri-Slezkine/dp/0691192820/ref=sr_1_1

    But the 20th century is over and with it the Jewish Century. Good riddance to that. Go pick apples in a Kibbutz in Upstate New York, the New Israel, because after America, there will be little future for the state of Israel, Turkey and Iran will look after that.

  4. Cloggie on Sun, 3rd Jul 2022 10:17 am 

    North Sea floating solar takes off in the Netherlands:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2022/07/03/oceans-of-energy-north-sea-offshore-solar/

    The 57,800 km2 would be sufficient to power the entire EU.

    Who needs Saudi-Arabia if we have the Netherlands.

  5. FamousDrScanlon on Sun, 3rd Jul 2022 12:44 pm 

    clog, a few hundred million Americans think they are the chosen people.

    Hundreds of millions of Muslims spread throughout the world think they are the chosen people.

    The Mongols thought they where chosen ones. Why else did their god of the blue sky, Tengri, let them win all the time?

    The chosen one belief system is like a wheel that rolls through human history. Rolls and crushes people, sometimes entire populations, under it’s weight.

    As I’ve said before, kill off the Jews and someone else will fund war, create wars then fund them add everything else the worst of the Jews have done and it’s unlikely they will end up contributing so many great things to the world like the best of the Jews have.

    The Jew power players will be gone, but it may not come before your last breath. What’s another decade or 2 to history? History does not feel your impatience. It happens on it’s own scheduled.

    The clever kid on the block is China. They were/are very smart to spread beyond their borders by building an empire of industrial projects instead of an empire of military bases like the US chosen ones (Manifest Destiny) did.

    You know the reason you and the other various tribal monkeys place so much importance on all this stuff is because you are in denial of the hammer the laws of physics, chemistry & biology are smashing y’all in the head with.

    All this fighting and poo flinging over who is going to be the next champion of the world is ridiculous when it’s a crap shoot to see who, if any, will survive our success.

    Most human behaviour, good intentioned or otherwise, only helps to bring on the real endtimes faster.

    And every-time your overlord’s mouth pieces say they are working on climate change and all other Overshoot consequences it’s BS.

    Not one thing can or will change by those playing real life game of thrones. They are little monkeys who crave power and can no more stop than all the heroin addicts who know their latest fix may be spiked with Fentanyl in a quantity that is enough to stop them breathing, but shoot up regardless.
    The power & wealth monkeys and the true believer follower monkeys are no different than the heroin monkeys. Just think of fossil fuels as our Fentanyl.

    Hang in there clog, you may still be around to learn the upcoming endtimes lesson in nonlinearity. 100% guaranteed per the laws of chemistry & physics.

    ANd me? I’ll just Keep Trucking along….

    https://youtu.be/lOKs-5t9Vf0

  6. Duncan Idaho on Sun, 3rd Jul 2022 1:39 pm 

    “I used to think the U.S. was basically Canada with worse health care and marginally less Alan Thicke, but while we’re finding hell portals into the dark past, Canada continues to protect its citizens’ hard-won individual rights.”

  7. makati1 on Sun, 3rd Jul 2022 4:54 pm 

    Cloggie, which of these imports are YOU going to give up for your “Green Dream”?

    Mineral fuels including oil: US$97.3 billion (15.7% of total imports)
    Electrical machinery, equipment: $79.9 billion (12.9%)
    Machinery including computers: $71.7 billion (11.6%)
    Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $31.4 billion (5.1%)
    Vehicles: $30.9 billion (5%)
    Pharmaceuticals: $25.5 billion (4.1%)
    Plastics, plastic articles: $20.8 billion (3.3%)
    Organic chemicals: $17 billion (2.7%)
    Other chemical goods: $16 billion (2.6%)
    Iron, steel: $13.3 billion (2.1%)

    https://www.worldstopexports.com/netherlands-top-10-imports/

    Can you build your dream without any of these Fossil Fuel required sources?

    Dream on! LOL

  8. Biden’s hairplug on Sun, 3rd Jul 2022 5:43 pm 

    Sky News Australia has unashamedly become white nationalist:

    https://youtu.be/jtgKGtVShv8

  9. FamousDrScanlon on Mon, 4th Jul 2022 11:59 am 

    For the scientific ignorant who keep parroting/copy-N-paste BAD analogies and think they explain something. They do – your ignorance in any and all science related to viruses which have millions of man hours worth of scientist research and growing, but because you have the internet and a piss poor attitude you think you are more knowledgeable than hundreds of thousands of scientists.

    “It seems to me that almost all anti-vaxxers lack a basic grounding in biology.* Hand in hand with this, they are much less likely to understand natural selection, instead being ignorant creationists, and will therefore not have grasped the potential advantages of mutation—highlighted recently by SARS-CoV-2 variants like delta and omicron which can breed faster and overcome our defences more easily. As with most things, there’s a balance.”

    The limits of analogy

    You’ll hear a lot of people drawing parallels between COVID-19 and other viruses, especially ‘flu. Here are just a few such mythical statements:

    “COVID-19 is no worse than ‘flu—the death rate is just 0.5% (etc)”
    “It’ll soon be over, just like ‘flu”
    “We’ll soon get herd immunity, just like ‘flu”
    “SARS-CoV-2 will inevitably become milder in time, just like a common cold”
    “Omicron is milder—just like a common cold”

    I’m embarrassed even to write down such statements, but two years into the pandemic, we’re still seeing this sort of flagrant nonsense being widely spread around.

    These statements betray a fundamental lack of understanding of almost everything related to both influenza and SARS-CoV-2. To summarise:

    Influenza kills, but the death rate from COVID-19 is at least an order of magnitude greater than that from influenza—and millions more have died in just a couple of years than die in a decade from seasonal ‘flu.[8]

    SARS-CoV-2 will continue to spread and mutate, for many reasons. The R0of influenza A is about 1.6, which is one of the reasons why even the 1918 pandemic died out after a few years; that of delta is 5–8, which means that herd immunity pretty much isn’t going to happen. In addition, new ‘flu strains mainly arise because flu breeds in waterfowl (etc) and then intermittently spreads to us; new SARS-CoV-2 variants mostly arise because the virus breeds continually in us.
    There is no compelling argument in favour of a milder and milder progression of the virus. I explore this elsewhere.[9] We still don’t know whether omicron is milder, but if it is, it’s likely still five times more dangerous than ‘flu; in any case, it seems to be overwhelming hospitals around the world as I write. US hospitalisation data are shown in the figure below

    .

    It may not be clear why questions like “Why should I worry if 99.5% of people survive infection with SARS-CoV-2?” are so ignorant. This is because many people don’t understand risk. One way around this conceptual barrier is to think in terms of the micromort
    : a one-in-a-million chance of dying.

    https://www.quora.com/Why-does-COVID-19-keep-mutating-to-require-new-vaccines-while-smallpox-mumps-polio-etc-dont/answer/Dr-Jo-6

  10. Cloggie on Mon, 4th Jul 2022 2:40 pm 

    “26 Ton DAF e-Truck Overcomes High Alpine Road”

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2022/07/04/26-ton-daf-e-truck-overcomes-high-alpine-road/

    Yabut…

    Where would we be without Eindhoven, I’m asking you?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DAF_Trucks

  11. peakyeast on Mon, 4th Jul 2022 3:04 pm 

    26 ton trick truck. Payload 1 t. Battery 20 t.
    ?

  12. makati1 on Mon, 4th Jul 2022 4:32 pm 

    Cloggie cannot even spell ‘physics’, let alone understand it. We had physics in 12th grade, 60 years ago. I doubt the laws have changed.

  13. Cloggie on Mon, 4th Jul 2022 4:57 pm 

    26 ton trick truck. Payload 1 t. Battery 20 t.
    ?

    https://www.daf.com/en/about-daf/sustainability/alternative-fuels-and-drivelines/battery-electric-vehicles/daf-cf-electric

    Weight empty truck: 10 ton
    Weight payload: 26 ton

    Don’t know about the battery, but it is 350 kWh, so about 6 times that of a sedan. Probably 1.5-2 ton.

    Range 200 km, fast charging possible.

  14. Biden's hairplug on Mon, 4th Jul 2022 6:22 pm 

    “‘Our country is going to hell in a hand-basket’: WWII veteran celebrating 100th birthday breaks down in TEARS while discussing current state of America”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10978487/WWII-veteran-celebrating-100th-birthday-breaks-discussing-current-state-America.html

  15. peakyeast on Mon, 4th Jul 2022 7:09 pm 

    Li-ion is about 10kg/KWh. 350KWh is about 3 tonnes. Which again translates to about 150km range in the summer with the wind from the right direction. We all know how range is calculated in the car business !

    150km… I would say that limits the usecases for the truck.

  16. peakyeast on Mon, 4th Jul 2022 7:28 pm 

    After 8 years of fast charging I would expect the range to be degraded by more than 20%. Possibly much more.

    I know nobody in the transportation business that can use a truck with such limited range. And does it have regenerative braking. Since this seems to be an inner city truck. Even in tiny Denmark there is much more than 150km between cities and much much more from trading partners.

    I also notice that the range is obviously not impacted by the weight of the goods. Otherwise the honest advertiser would write how much range is with payload and how much without. As well as range during winter.

    I would say a range of 450-500 KM would be useful. But that is a pretty heavy and expensive battery to carry around.

    If full self-driving capabilities becomes a reality, the truck could be useful in its current configuration. But otherwise I guess truck-drivers will have to spend quite some time at each charging station… Or there will have to be an enormeous amount of charging stations.

    When I take a drive to work I see 50-100 trucks during that 1 hour. Imagine them all having to supercharge. They (almost) need their very own nuclear power plant at the roadside. 😉

    300KWh * 0.8 * 50 * (30min) = 24.000 KWh per hour for charging the trucks on the highway – for every 100-150 KM of range…

  17. peakyeast on Mon, 4th Jul 2022 7:29 pm 

    This transition to electric trucks are going to be very very interesting.

  18. FamousDrScanlon on Mon, 4th Jul 2022 8:10 pm 

    According to dumb fucks in many counties your leader is responsible for the inflation your citizens are suffering.

    Global inflation, local blame.

    Holy fuck are you people ever fucking dumb.

    Lucky for me, I get to see climate change burn you all down…or finish the job the tribal fighting has already started.

    The chimp tribes blaming each other for all problems regardless of if they are local or global is not new.

    It’s programming. Humans will behave/react the same way under specific circumstances because they are programmed too. Like monkeys or birds or worms.

    Not in control ignorant bitches.

  19. Cloggie on Tue, 5th Jul 2022 5:18 am 

    “150km… I would say that limits the usecases for the truck.”

    For international trucking, yes, but there is a huge demand for short range trucking, like between distribution centers and supermarkets, or breweries and cafes.

    Netherlands: in 2021, 219 new battery trucks and 45 hydrogen trucks registered.

    “But otherwise I guess truck-drivers will have to spend quite some time at each charging station…”

    The chauffeur in the video says that the 45 minutes he spends unloading his truck at the customers site, is sufficient to recharge the battery to 80%.

    “300KWh * 0.8 * 50 * (30min) = 24.000 KWh per hour for charging the trucks on the highway – for every 100-150 KM of range…”

    You seem to assume that the technological situation in 2022 is fixed, but it isn’t. Huge progress is being made on the battery front:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/category/batteries/

    In a couple of years, energy density will be doubled and charging times halved.

  20. Biden's hairplug on Tue, 5th Jul 2022 6:02 am 

    “Lucky for me, I get to see climate change burn you all down”

    You talk as if you live as a spectator on a different planet. Fool.

    “The chimp tribes”

    Yep, humans are tribal monkeys. European America could have worked (or the EU), were it not that the kikes pushed through their 1965 Act:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_and_Nationality_Act_of_1965

    …which spelled the end of America, and accidentally the only serious power base and tax farm the kikes had left. They will go down with a balkanizing America, couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch.

  21. peakyeast on Tue, 5th Jul 2022 6:47 am 

    “In a couple of years, energy density will be doubled and charging times halved.”

    You are the type that likes to sell the skin before the bear is shot…

    If I had a dime for each time there has been advertised amazing new battery tech I would have at least a 100$ 🙂

    Remember the LiS battery? Huge hype, but still not rolled out in big style years after.

    What about the rapid inflation and materials cost? Do you assume them to suddenly disappear? The cost of lithium alone has risen 7 fold in the past year IIRC.

    And the energy still has to be produced… Meanwhile we are seeing a rapid degradation in energy security, food security, environment, global stability…

    It is almost like now we have to chose between killing a lot of people and make a transition to new energy regime…

  22. Cloggie on Tue, 5th Jul 2022 9:16 am 

    “You are the type that likes to sell the skin before the bear is shot…”

    …that, or somebody who can extrapolate:

    https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/19/bloombergnef-lithium-ion-battery-cell-densities-have-almost-tripled-since-2010/

    “batty cell densities have tripled since 2010”

    …and has the experience with 40 years of phenomenal development of IT (memory size, hard disk size, processor speed, etc.) in mind.

    The whole world seems to throw its weight behind renewable energy, something will come out of it.

    Oh, and there is no alternative. So you can mock 3 ton batteries on a 26 ton truck all you want, but you gotta row with the paddles you have.

    And globalism is collapsing anyway, so the need for long distance transport will decline anyway.

  23. FamousDrScanlon on Tue, 5th Jul 2022 12:58 pm 

    yes clog, I’m not invincible, but I’m the next best thing plus I know not to stand in heavy traffic of any sort.

    No one with a mouth like mine could last as long as I have without being able to take some poundings here and there. I hit back so that deters much of it.

    In 1997-98 ish I built my first computer. I dumped like $200 on a 10GB hard drive. It was one of the biggest capacities around and my friends all said the same stupid thing, ” 10Gigs? that’s Huge! – you’ll never need more than that – that’s fucking HUGE!!”

    10 GB’s is nothing today and the massive increases in storage plus falling prices resulted in MOAR, which is what all the highly touted new discoveries result in. If the humans were to somehow survive it would have involved less. Less breeding, less eating, less driving, less hi dollar entertainment, less shopping for shit you will never need, less dopamine hits. To survive, humans would need to alter their behaviours so radically that they would become a different species.

    Unless there is a miracle battery discovery so far beyond anything previously envisioned, battery tech will make no difference in the big picture except for me to not have to recharge my battery powered fuck slave doll 4 times a day.
    That talking vagina feature really sucks up the juice.

  24. Biden's hairplug on Tue, 5th Jul 2022 2:42 pm 

    More energy doom for Europe:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/05/energy/norwegian-gas-strike-europe-energy-crisis/index.html

    “Europe braces for another energy shock as Norwegian gas fields close”

    Americans shouldn’t laugh too hard out of Schadenfreude. Public pressure could arise to leave NATO and strike a deal with Russia and open Nordstream 1&2.

    Fortunately, the Dutch still have 1 trillion euro worth of natural gas left (or 2 trillion against new market prices?).

  25. Biden’s hairplug on Tue, 5th Jul 2022 4:16 pm 

    B-b-but I thought Canada was great?!

    https://youtu.be/8Vx_ABzIeeY

  26. Cloggie on Wed, 6th Jul 2022 8:08 am 

    Shell has given the go ahead to build a green hydrogen facility of 200 MW in Rotterdam harbor.

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2022/07/06/shell-gives-green-light-for-green-200-mw-hydrogen-plant/

    This project is a stepping stone for a 20 times larger project in Eemshaven, in the north of the Netherlands.

    The hydrogen economy is really taking off in the Netherlands.

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