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Page added on September 22, 2017

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The Real Cause Of Peak Gasoline Demand


New analysis shows that fuel-efficient cars that utilize gasoline engines will lower oil demand more effectively than the widespread adoption of electric cars, according to an analyst from FGE who spoke to Reuters.

Though Asian and European nations have pledged a shift towards electric cars in the next decade, the biggest threat to oil prices is the implementation of stricter fuel standards, said analyst Cuneyt Kazokoglu.

“It will come, but it will come because of fuel economy, not electrification,” Kazokoglu said regarding the all-feared “peak” gasoline demand point.

FGE predicts that global gasoline consumption will drop by 11.3 million barrels per day due to increased fuel economy by 2040, dwarfing the 5.3 million bpd drop expected from the onslaught of electric cars or hybrids.

“[Gasoline demand] will inevitably peak in 15 years or so,” Kazokoglu said.

China, a country adamant to get electric cars on its roads, says it will not reach peak energy demand until the year 2040.

Previous estimates said the peak would be reached in 2035, but new figures suggest that five years later, demand would be at its highest at 4.06 billion tons of oil equivalent. Rising fuel needs stem from an increasing number of cars on Chinese roads, as a growing middle class adopts new luxuries in their daily lives.

Currently, China is second only to the United States in its overall energy consumption, but the nation’s high coal use causes it to emit almost twice as much carbon dioxide as the first-place consumer. A report by the CNPC earlier this year added that China’s oil demand will grow at a rate of 2.7 percent annually until 2020, after which it will slow to 1.2 percent until the end of the next decade.

Zainab Calcuttawala for

16 Comments on "The Real Cause Of Peak Gasoline Demand"

  1. Go Speed Racer on Fri, 22nd Sep 2017 2:56 pm 

    Peak Monster Trucks?
    … peak rednecks?

  2. Mick on Fri, 22nd Sep 2017 3:30 pm 

    But no peak sofas or mattresses any time soon gsr there’s a glut of them around where I live.

  3. Plantagenet on Fri, 22nd Sep 2017 4:11 pm 

    I wonder why people fantasize that we are at “peak gasoline demand” when China and India are both rapidly increasing their gasoline use, i.e. their demand for gasoline hasn’t peaked—its still growing!

    You can’t have “peak gasoline demand” when the global demand demand for gasoline in increasing.

    Get it now?


  4. Mick on Fri, 22nd Sep 2017 4:23 pm 

    Hey planty are you getting paid to make comments on this site? If so how can I get in on the action I could use a bit of extra cash. Cheers

  5. Go Speed Racer on Fri, 22nd Sep 2017 5:08 pm 

    Mick if ya need some cash,
    drive a truck around the roads near your
    place. Load up the old sofa’s 3 at a time.
    Bring em to my place, will give ya
    Ten bucks each.
    Drunken party Saturday night, but we
    getting low on sofa’s bring some over.

  6. Mick on Fri, 22nd Sep 2017 5:24 pm 

    Sounds like a good plan speed plenty of booze large bonfire thick black smoke what could possibly go wrong? I’ll be over with a load next weekend just bring those sticks and hotdogs in case the sheriff rocks up

  7. deadlykillerbeaz on Fri, 22nd Sep 2017 8:03 pm 

    I am being paid one million barrels of oil to post this comment.

    50 million dollars is the price to pay.


  8. Go Speed Racer on Fri, 22nd Sep 2017 8:35 pm 

    Mick I will bring 2 cases of Fireball
    and lots of hot dogs sticks and
    potato chips.
    U bring at least 3 sofa’s, and a set of
    old radial tires.
    Can something go wrong? Nothing
    can go wrong.
    Here’s cousin Jethro kicking off the
    party last time.

  9. Sissyfuss on Fri, 22nd Sep 2017 9:23 pm 

    Oh, he blowed up real good!

  10. Mick on Fri, 22nd Sep 2017 10:41 pm 


  11. Mick on Sat, 23rd Sep 2017 2:22 am 

    Wasn’t that planet nibiru or Planet X suppose to collide with us today ? I just had a look outside and still can’t see it ,might be caught in traffic there’s a lot of rocks around the mars area . Anyway don’t want my popcorn to get cold

  12. Anonymouse1 on Sat, 23rd Sep 2017 4:39 am 

    The article is essentially correct in asserting that strict fuel economy, could lead to lowered fuel demand (duh).. So do walking, bikes, mass-transit (even if powered by FF). Of course, even ‘efficient’ oil-burners only sidestep the problem, ie, make it slightly less worse. But that’s how this global civ likes to roll.

    Problem is, that was true 10 years, 50 years ago, and 80 years ago as well. Which is why, the oil-auto cartel fought tooth and nail against any attempts to implement such standards. And where ‘economy standards’, were introduced, they were so watered down, and poorly enforced(that is a key point), as to not be a threat. In fact, the oil-auto cartel actually loves efficiency standards (weak ones that is), far more than no standards at all.

    They can point to them and claim they are ‘doing their part’.

  13. Dredd on Sat, 23rd Sep 2017 6:40 am 

    Always check your sources (Smoke & Fumes).

  14. Kenz300 on Sat, 23rd Sep 2017 8:39 am 

    Walking, riding a bicycle or taking mass transit are keys to making cities livable and sustainable.

    Electric vehicles are great when needed.

  15. tita on Sat, 23rd Sep 2017 9:03 am 

    Engines become more efficient. The problem is that most of the car sold are inefficient, as they are bigger and heavier. Some markets (India, China) are increasing very fast. Europe and Japan have already pushed the efficiency at its limits.

  16. Cloggie on Sun, 24th Sep 2017 3:04 am 

    Zainab Calcuttawala is a smart lady and not easy to deceive. If all cars will become more fuel efficient, the overal oil consumption will come down.

    That’s one to remember. We have potentially a breakthrough here.

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