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The Next Ten Years In Oil Markets


An eventful 2019 wraps up a decade of turmoil in oil markets, in which Brent Crude prices fluctuated from as high as US$125 a barrel in 2012 to as low as US$30 per barrel in January 2016.

Geopolitical turmoil, economic growth, soaring U.S. shale production, and OPEC’s various policies to try to set the trends in oil prices marked the decade which is drawing to a close.

For the decade beginning in 2020, the key factors determining the price of oil are likely to be similar to those we have seen over the past decade, Andy Critchlow, Head of News, EMEA at S&P Global Platts, writes.

The state of the global economy, U.S. oil production and exports growth, and the OPEC+ alliance between the cartel and a dozen non-OPEC producers led by Russia will continue to influence the price of oil through 2030.

Geopolitical flare-ups and U.S. sanctions policies toward major oil producers, including Iran and Venezuela, will also shape the supply side of the market over the next few years.

On the demand side, the growing share of renewables in the energy mix and the increased use of electric vehicles (EVs) will begin to displace meaningful volumes of fossil fuel demand in power generation and oil demand in transportation over the next decade, many analysts say. Growing climate concerns may also start impacting investment decisions in new fossil fuel production, including oil.

The fundamental supply and demand picture will likely be ‘more of the same’, but the push and policies toward greener economies could be the new factor shaping oil markets and influencing oil prices over the next decade.

According to S&P Global Platts Analytics, alternative energy—including renewables, higher EV penetration, and hydrogen use—“will limit the overall call on fossil fuels.

“As we enter a new decade, the energy complex feels like it is all cascading towards a race to the bottom,” S&P Global Platts Analytics said in a research note.

Many forecasts predict oil demand peaking at around 2030 or in the 2030s. Global oil demand will reach its peak in the mid-2020s and flatten out in the 2030s, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest annual World Energy Outlook.

“Oil demand for long-distance freight, shipping and aviation, and petrochemicals continues to grow. But its use in passenger cars peaks in the late 2020s due to fuel efficiency improvements and fuel switching, mainly to electricity. Lower battery costs are an important part of the story: electric cars in some major markets soon become cost-competitive, on a total-cost-of-ownership basis, with conventional cars,” the IEA said in its outlook to 2040.

Unsurprisingly, OPEC continues to see oil as the fuel with the highest share in the global energy mix through 2040. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries expects EVs to hold a share of just 13 percent of the global car fleet in 2040 and sees the majority of the growth still coming for conventional internal combustion-engine vehicles.

OPEC has also been warning since the oil price crash in 2015-2016 that reduced investments in conventional oil after the price plunge will start to impact global oil supply in the 2020s. Through 2040, the world will need US$10.6 trillion in total investments in oil, OPEC said in its World Oil Outlook 2019 in November.

In the new decade, OPEC and its allies in the current OPEC+ pact will have to reckon with U.S. shale production, where growth is slowing these days as prices remain bound in a narrow range. But U.S. production will still grow in 2020, by more than 1 million bpd, according to nearly all major forecasts. U.S. shale production is expected to start declining in the middle or late 2020s, according to OPEC’s estimates.

The OPEC+ alliance will be tested as early as this coming March, when the partners are meeting to discuss how to proceed with their production cuts.

The coming decade will also test how (ir)relevant OPEC is on the global oil market, considering the supply growth from countries outside the production pact, the rising share of renewables and EVs amid falling technology costs, and growing concerns about climate change.

Global economic growth and recessions will undoubtedly also impact oil demand and oil prices over the next decade. So will the ever-restive Middle East with the Saudi-Iran antagonism and global powers vying for influence in a region home to one fifth of the world’s daily oil supply.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for

93 Comments on "The Next Ten Years In Oil Markets"

  1. Davy on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 1:32 am 

    For my first official statement of 2020, I would like to declare myself the winner of all arguments and debates for the next year. And that includes cloggo. He at least, is a worthy opponent. Unlike the rest of you foreigner fuckwacks and illegal extremists with nothing to say. Once I gain control of the board, I will ban ALL of those who have been bad-mouthing my REAL Davy agenda and essays all these years. According to my documentation, that will just leave myself, and cloggo. Which suits me just fine, because it is only right, that only the strongest and fittest minds be allow to debate, and ultimately heap well deserved praise, upon my REAL GREEN agenda. Not there is really to debate really. The truth my sock speaks of is self-evident, even if the lowlife dumbasses that keep pointing out my alleged ‘hypocrisy and bully-boy behavior here are too stupid to see that.

    So to keep it short and the point, since I have to attend to my animals and my acreage.

    I win

    You lose.

    Happy Neuter Year everyone.

    Any by everyone, I mean cloggo.

  2. JuanP is stupid on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 4:16 am 

    And stupid continues the trolling into 2020

    This is from stupid:
    Davy said For my first official statement of 2020, I would l…

    REAL Green said Were as real as we want us to be Davy.

    Davy said But yer not even REAL, Green?

    REAL Green said Yer not alone Davy. You got me n the goats.

    Davy said I hate being so alone all the time.

  3. Davy on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 4:33 am 

    “New Zogby Poll Shows Trump Beating All Dem Candidates” summit news

    “A new Zogby poll shows President Trump beating all the potential Democratic candidates in a hypothetical 2020 run off. The numbers show that Trump beats Biden 46-45%, he’s ahead of Warren 47-43% and also beating Bernie 47-45%. The figures also show that amongst college educated Americans, Trump performs even better when up against the farthest left candidates, beating Warren and Sanders 50-45%. “Trump is winning with union voters (Trump leads 48% to 42%) and consumers-NASCAR fans (Trump leads 63% to 32%), weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 54% to 37%), and weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 54% to 43%),” reports Zogby. The numbers are particularly impressive given the onslaught of attacks and negative media coverage Trump has received. “The scale of media involvement in the 2020 election will likely be the most massively biased propaganda effort in the history of U.S. media manipulation,” comments Conservative Treehouse. “Together with the big tech effort from control operatives in social media, the scale of unified effort is likely to exceed Orwellian proportions.”

  4. Davy on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 11:45 am 

    Oops sorry y’all. Wrong link again.

  5. JuanP on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 12:28 pm 

    Delusional Davy “And stupid continues the trolling into 2020.”
    Happy New Year, Hillbilly Scum! To infinity and beyond! I am younger, healthier, and have more money than you, Exceptionalist! You will never again in your life enjoy abusing others on this forum. You can keep abusing others, of course, if that’s what you want, but I won’t let you enjoy it, Exceptionalist. Never! ROFLMFAO! Trump 2020! Tulsi 2020! Long live China! Long live Russia!

  6. JuanP is stupid on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 1:19 pm 

    More stupid, the dumbass has dedicated 3 years of his miserable life to trolling Davy. What a loser!

    this is from stupid
    REAL Green said Pretending something or someone is real when there…

    Davy said For anyone that cares. REAL Green is one of my so…

    Davy said Oops sorry y’all. Wrong link again. https://www.ze

    REAL Green said Schizophrenia Symptoms: Delusions. These are false…

  7. JuanP the delusionalist on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 1:27 pm 

    “Happy New Year, Hillbilly Scum!”
    JuanP, I have more culture in my little finger than you have in your whole body. You are an uneducated piece of shit from South America. Go home and leave us alone, lunatic

    “ To infinity and beyond! I am younger, healthier, and have more money than you, Exceptionalist!”
    Dellusionalist, you are two years younger than me but I imagine I am much healtier than you. You are a mentally ill piece of trash living in dirty Miami Beach drugging and practicing risky sex. I doubt you are healthy

    “ You will never again in your life enjoy abusing others on this forum.”
    You started the shit asswipe. You and your anti-American bullies thought you could run me off starting years ago. I remember when you started shit a few years back you fucks came at me 6 at once and I bounced you pussies down the road.

    “ You can keep abusing others, of course, if that’s what you want, but I won’t let you enjoy it”
    One thing I enjoy is you going deeper into mental illness everyday you obsessively stalk and troll me. Nothing but mindless low IQ shit comes out of you. I like when I see your shit pop up it means you are lost in mental illness never to recover. VICTORY

    “Exceptionalist. Never! ROFLMFAO! Trump 2020! Tulsi 2020! Long live China! Long live Russia!”
    Go cheerlead down in your failed South America. We don’t need gimmigrant parasites here in the US.

  8. Davy on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 1:35 pm 

    Looks like Obama might get impeached now

    “Giuliani Says Ukraine Corruption Came From ‘Highest Levels Of Obama Administration’; Wants To Testify, Try Case” zero hedge

    “Rudy Giuliani is not only willing to testify in President Trump’s Senate impeachment trial, he wants to “do demonstrations” in order to outline what he described as a “series of criminal acts” involving “the highest levels of the Obama administration,” adding that Democrats Adam Schiff and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will go down in history like Joe McCarthy when people “calm down and watch this carefully.” “What I learned is the corruption in Ukraine is vast, it’s extensive, it highly involves the Democratic party – not just in 2016 but for many years,” the former New York City mayor said at Trump’s New Year’s Eve party at Mar-a-Lago in Florida. “When the full scope of what happens in Ukraine comes out, there are going to be a lot of Americans who participated in the corruption,” adding “The Bidens took millions of dollars laundered out of Ukraine, and the only reason they’re getting away with it is because you and the press protect them…” When asked what he discovered, Rudy replied “I’m not going to tell you what I found out until I have a proper forum… but it’s devastating,” adding “We will figure out the right forum.” “This is expanding, it will turn out to be a series of criminal acts. It will involve the highest levels of the Obama administration. It’s the reason the Democratic party is in panic.” “I would testify, I would do demonstrations, I’d give lectures, I’d give summations. Or, I do what I do best, I try the case,” adding, with a smile, “I’d love to try the case.” “If you give me the case, I will prosecute it as a racketeering case. Which I kind of invented anyway.”

  9. Davy on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 1:51 pm 

    “”Our Entire Society Is Mentally Ill” – Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix” zero hedge

    “Imagine living in Nazi Germany and only ever talking about Jim Crow laws in the American south. That’s what it’s like when people who live in the US-centralized empire focus on the alleged misdeeds of non-aligned nations.”

    “Our entire society is mentally ill. What our mentally ill society labels “mental illness” is actually just a small slice of the broader mental illness spectrum — those who are impaired in their ability to participate in the consensus mass delusions shared by the rest of society.”

    “Arguably the only people who actually truly understand the highly unscientific and completely made-up field of economics are those who manipulate the economy for their own benefit. And they only understand it because they’re the ones authoring its self-fulfilling prophecies”

  10. Davy on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 1:57 pm 

    “The Leftist Cult Vs. The Trump Cult: Similarities And Differences” zero hedge

    “Political demagoguery is a valuable and effective weapon in the arsenal of the establishment elites. As long as there is a wide ideological division between groups in society, biases and desires can be tapped and manipulated. This allows those in power to direct vast portions of the public down one path or another. When fear of an enemy and the drive to “win” become more important than truth and evidence, the population has tied its own puppet strings and handed them over to the spin doctors.

    This is why the false Left/Right paradigm has been so useful to the establishment for so long. Anytime the public starts to wake up to the web of control, all the elites have to do is push one or both sides of the political spectrum towards extremism and let the people rage at each other instead of picking up their torches and pitchforks and tearing down the oligarchy. This method of division and diversion keeps the masses occupied and feeling as though they are accomplishing something while actually accomplishing nothing.”

    “Trump is a skin job. A robot. A false conservative and false prophet of the liberty movement. He tells us what we want to hear while his actions say something entirely different. Yet, a lot of conservatives still listen to him, because they despise the collectivist religion of the left, they desperately want mainstream recognition and representation, and because they want to believe that there is a white knight out there in Washington defending their interests and their future.”

  11. Davy on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 1:58 pm 

    Go Trump!

  12. Davy on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 2:04 pm 

    “”A Nation Dying” – Opioid Deaths Linked To Auto Plant Closures, Study Says” zero hedge

    “As we’ve noted before, the opioid crisis in the last several decades has unfolded in three waves: The first wave of prescription pills started right before the Dot Com bust and ended around the 2008 financial crisis. The second wave began in 2009 and was associated with a significant increase in heroin-related deaths. The third wave started in 2015, which involved the proliferation of synthetic opioids, such as fentanyl. Each wave saw a greater number of overdose deaths. In total, more than 400,000 people died from 1999 to 2017.”

    “The link between auto plant closures and the rise in opioid-related deaths suggests the nation is dying.”

  13. JuanP is stupid on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 2:04 pm 

    Stupid, you can’t hurt me. LOL. I am glad you are so obsessed with me. You can’t debate anything. You lose all debates. I have beaten you into mental illness. VICTORY!!

    This is from stupid:
    Davy said Go Trump!

    Davy said “The Leftist Cult Vs. The Trump Cult: Similarities…

    Davy said “”Our Entire Society Is Mentally Ill”..

  14. Davy on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 2:06 pm 

    Like I always said. We gots to keep things around hear fair, and balanced.

  15. Another Davy Sock Puppet on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 2:11 pm 

    And madder then hell! LOL!

    JuanP is stupid on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 2:04 pm

  16. REAL Green on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 2:20 pm 

    Were the boards favorite schizophrenics Davy.

  17. Davy on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 3:08 pm 

    Victory is all mine. So just give up now and go back to your fantasy manilla farms, your Xboxes or deport yourself back to Bulgaria.

    I declare, the new day of 2020, to be………………..


    The ‘D’ in D-Day is for DAVY, in case you didnt know. Clever no?

  18. Davy on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 3:08 pm 

    Tulsi Gabbard’s Filipino Christmas.


  19. JuanP is stupid on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 3:36 pm 

    Stupid is losing it

    This is from stupid:
    Davy said Tulsi Gabbard’s Filipino Christmas. https://

    Davy said Victory is all mine. So just give up now and go ba…

    REAL Green said Were the boards favorite schizophrenics Davy.

    Another Davy Sock Puppet said And madder then hell! LOL! JuanP is stupid on Wed,…

    Davy said Like I always said. We gots to keep things around…

  20. makati1 on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 4:59 pm 

    That is a great video of a traditional Filipino Christmas dinner. Thanks! I doubt that Tulsa has a chance, but, who knows?

    I have enjoyed most of those Filipino dishes and they are great. Served on a banana leaf. There is a man whose job it is to go out and find those large leaves when they are young and clean. He comes to our house regularly to cut the ones that are new.

    There are few insects that eat them, so they can be used for dishes, even at restaurants or used to wrap food sold on the streets. They are 6-7 feet long and maybe 18 inches wide and grow like weeds.

    BTW: We had roast pork, sauerkraut and mashed potatoes, a Pennsylvania Dutch, traditional, New Year’s dinner, at our house. All things that the PA Dutch would have had in the winter when they settled PA hundreds of years ago. It is to bring good luck and prosperity in the new year.

    I hope you are all enjoying the holidays.

  21. Davy on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 5:01 pm 

    Thanks makato. We hope your enjoying the holidays to.

    Old freind.

  22. juanp is stupid on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 5:34 pm 


    Davy said Thanks makato. We hope your enjoying the holidays…

  23. REAL Green on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 6:01 pm 

    Arent we gonna tell makato what we did for New Years dinner Davy?

  24. JuanP is mindless and stupid on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 6:13 pm 

    This is from stupid:
    REAL Green said Arent we gonna tell makato what we did for New Yea…

    Davy is stupid said Davy is stupid. He just is.

  25. Davy on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 6:16 pm 

    We had roasted goat this year makato you stupid old man. And I had it in Italy, like we do every year when we go to Italy to visit and inspect my operations and lands on that side of the world.

    Unlike you, I’m a civilized American and we dont eat bugs in 3rd-world shitholes and then brag about it on the internet, like you are.

    Poor makatoo, reduced to eating bugs already. I hope 2021 works out better for you, because 2020 is looking pretty disgusting right now in your overpopulated shithole.

  26. makati1 on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 6:17 pm 

    BTW: “The Banana Leaf” is one of our favorite restaurant chains when we are in Manila.

    My favorite is barbecue roasted baby back ribs for P520 or about $10.

    But, of course, I also like “TGI Fridays” in several locations here. ^_^

  27. JuanP on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 6:20 pm 

    Mak, I may be coming over to Manila this summer. Can I look you up?

  28. JuanP on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 6:21 pm 

    Vintage Kunstler

    Forecast 2020 — Whirlin’ and Swirlin’

  29. makati1 on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 6:58 pm 

    We shall see. I am going to the US sometime this year, for several weeks, in late Spring to early Fall. Check with me here to see if I would be in the city then.

    I only go to the city about every two months, and then not for more than a few days. But come and see The country, even if I am not available. Round trip, booked with Expedia, is about $1,500. Hotels about $30, and up, per night. But plan on at least 24 hours from your city to Manila and allow two hours between flight connections, if you can. Most flights stop at Narita, in Tokyo, so you could plan a few days there, if you want. ^_^

  30. Davy on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 7:03 pm 

    You are just a stupid old man who thinks he is a jet setter of some kind. It would laughable it it wasn’t so pathetic, makatoo. Better bring along an oxygen tank in case you pass out from being old and feeble on the trip so they dont have to make an emergency landing on your account.

  31. JuanP is stupid on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 7:11 pm 

    This is from stupid:
    Davy said You are just a stupid old man who thinks he is a jet setter of some…..

  32. Davy on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 7:15 pm 

    We tried making goat stew but he stupid goat kept getting out of the barrel agin. So we had the usual. Roasted cockroaches salad.

  33. makati1 on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 7:26 pm 

    Countries I have visited:
    Puerto Rico
    U.A.E. (Dubai)

    I think that qualifies me as a “Jet Setter”. LOL

  34. Anonymouse on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 8:08 pm 

    The exceptionalturd sounds like he being exceptionally STUPID today. Or maybe the delusional one is just being itself, again. Just ignore his stupid comments Mak. The turd is irrelevant AND stupid, not that that is exactly news around here.

    You’ve traveled plenty and no one here has to rationalize anything to a lunatic like davytard. Maybe, if he thinks about it real hard, davy dumbass there can offer up a list of all the counties in his state he has visited. Id be willing to bet though, his list, would likely consist of that one-time visit to the next county over, and not much more.

  35. JuanP on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 8:10 pm 

    sounds like a date

  36. Anonymouse on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 8:12 pm 

    blow jobs for my bester boys

  37. Richard Guunette on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 8:13 pm 

    How about you fags get a room and get off here

  38. JuanP on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 8:25 pm 

    DiGenova: Comey And Brennan Were ‘Coup Leaders’
    “Former US Attorney Joe diGenova told OANN’s John Hines that former FBI Director James Comey and former CIA Director John Brennan were “coup leaders” in an attempt to reverse the outcome of the 2016 US election. DiGenova says the Obama Justice Department was corrupted under Attorneys General Eric Holder and Loretta Lynch, “with the authority and knowledge of then-president” Obama, and that a ‘stupid and arrogant’ Susan Rice was dumb enough to document his knowledge in a January 20th, 2017 email. “And you’ll never forget, I’m sure, that famous Susan Rice email on inauguration day of Donald Trump, where she sends an email to the file memorializing that there had been a meeting on January 5th with the president of the United States, all senior law enforcement and intelligence officials, where they reviewed the status of Crossfire Hurricane and the president announced – President Obama – that he was sure that everything had been done by the book. I want to thank Susan Rice for being so stupid and so arrogant to write that email on January 20th because that’s exhibit A for Barack Obama – who knew all about this from start to finish, and was more than happy to have the civil rights of a massive number of Americans violated so he could get Donald Trump.” -Joe diGenova Moreover, diGenova says that after “all this stuff involving Trump and Page and Papadopoulos and Michael Flynn,” anyone who couldn’t see that the “corrupt investigative process of the FBI and DOJ was basically being used to conduct a coup d’état” is an idiot. “This was not hard. If you’re a good prosecutor you look at the facts in the Trump case, and the Page case, the Flynn case. There’s only one conclusion you can come to; none of this makes any sense. None of these people were evil. None of them. They were framed, and the whole process was playing out, and you knew it on July 5th 2016, when James Comey announced – usurping the functions of the Attorney General, that no reasonable prosecutor would bring a case against Hillary Clinton. That was ludicrous! She destroyed 30,000 emails that were under subpoena. If you or I did that, we would be in prison today. She got a break because she was Hillary Clinton, and James Comey was trying to kiss her fanny because he wanted something from her when she became president of the United States. All of these people who watched that news conference and didn’t think that it was a disgrace for the FBI. And then subsequently, watched all this stuff involving Trump and Page and Papadopoulos and Michael Flynn – and couldn’t see that the corrupt investigative process of the FBI and the DOJ was basically being used to conduct a coup d’état. I mean you have to be an idiot. Any first year assistant US attorney would look at all these facts and say ‘there’s a coup underway. There’s a conspiracy.’ But for those of us thought that, the Washington Post, the New York Times. We were ‘conspiracy theorists.’ You know what? Pretty damn good theory, it appears today. “To what extent is the CIA involved in this?” asked Hines. “Well there’s no doubt that John Brennan was the primogenitor of the entire counterintelligence investigation,” replied diGenova. “It was John Brennan who went to James Comey and basically pummeled him into starting a counterintelligence investigation against Trump. Brennan’s at the heart of this. He went around the world. He enlisted the help of foreign intelligence services. He’s responsible for Joseph Mifsud and other people.” “People do not have even the beginning of an understanding of the role that John Brennan played in this. He is a monstrously important person, and I underscore monstrously important person. He has done more damage to the Central Intelligence Agency – it’s equal to what James Comey has done to the FBI. It’s pretty clear that James Comey will go down in history as the single worst FBI director in history, regardless of how Mr. Durham treats him.” “He precipitated it. He caused it. He encouraged it, and he is responsible for it at a minimum. He and John Brennan are the coup leaders.”

  39. REAL Green on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 8:29 pm 

    Trollin lame forums sixteen hours a day isnt doing any good for our afflcshuns Davy. We need to see a docter fer that.

  40. Davy on Wed, 1st Jan 2020 9:06 pm 

    Oops, sorry y’all. We fergot the link again.

  41. vex 3 on Thu, 2nd Jan 2020 10:41 pm 

    Your posts leave me with a lot of experience and impressions, I hope you will have more good posts in the near future to share with readers.

  42. Sissyfuss on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 11:02 am 

    The battle for control was won by the oligarchs with the election of Reagan. Manipulating the masses ala Goebbels methodology has progressed nicely since. That is until Limits to Growth made it impossible to tell the dying middle class there are only good times ahead. Degrowth as a political thesis is a sure method of defeat. The powers that be are deluding less of the people less of the time. Winter is coming and is bringing Hell along with it for support.

  43. Duncan Idaho on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 11:45 am 

    U.S. Will Come To Regret Its Assassination of Qassim Soleimani

    The Fat Boy probably did it to distract from impeachment–

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