Peak Oil is You

Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)

Page added on April 1, 2019

Bookmark and Share

The New World Disorder – Global Population Crisis

According to Peter Zeihan, the geopolitical strategist who has predicted global chaos in the wake of the collapse of the post-WWII multi-lateral world, it is now clear that the least understood component of global trade is agricultural production and its delicate and highly unstable distribution chain. As global systems are now at risk, a huge plurality of the world population has no idea that famine could visit in the coming decades.

These systems rely on 1. low cost credit and financing (or free flow of cheap capital for farming), 2. low cost energy inputs (farms use fuels, fertilizers – relies petrochemicals to produce), and 3. smooth, free, scheduled and protected international movement of grains and foods (the finished products of agriculture, shipping lanes must be free and open).

When these three parts of the system are injected with chaos that results in credit and energy shortages, this delicate system breaks down.

Example – every drop of Saudi oil that goes to Japan, China and Germany has been directly or indirectly protected by the US 5th fleet since 1945. As does every ton of food imported into Saudi Arabia. However, US Navy escorts are being pulled out as this video is published. What happens when the US is not standing between Saudi Arabia and its arch-nemesis Iran?

How did we get here?

Over the past 75 years the United States has been fully invested in the post-WWII Bretton-Woods System that has ensured credit and finance, as well as both energy and food security. This allowed for free movement of commodities as well as finished products to all destinations around the world – and this system is still in place.

In the 2012 book entitled Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World, by Ian Bremmer described the breakdown of G20, G7, NATO, World Bank, the European Union, WTO and all of the multi-lateral trade organizations that were built from 1944 to 1948 by the US and Europeans to manage a post-WWII world.

And now recently the US has announced that it was getting out of the global management business which means the world will return to pre-WWII systems of every country for itself.

And as this system breaks down, the world starts to realize that over 4 billion people on the planet rely on external sources to feed themselves.

In the future with global constrained access, with more difficult maritime situations with less financial capability there are only six places in the world that can actually expand output of agricultural products. These will be the clear winners.

The US and Canada, Myanmar, Australia, New Zealand, as well as France and Argentina. These countries have the lowest production costs in the world, as well as unfettered access to energy and global transport systems. These will be the exporters of calories to the over 70 countries who cannot feed themselves.

But we must understand that countries like Venezuela, Algeria, Libya, Somalia, Mexico, Peru, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Turkey, and another 70 countries in Africa and the Middle East that import between 25% and 75% of their calories are looking at a challenging and very frightening future.

In a world without order, in a world without easy transport and a world without easy finance, these are the countries that will see a 35% reduction in their ability to grow crops to feed themselves thus making them even more reliant on the 6 major agricultural safe zones on the planet.

As hard as it is to say, the next 10 years could be the start of a major geopoltical catastrophe as at least 70 countries around the world will not easily be able to feed themselves.

So when so-called experts say that the world population will expand to 10 billion, and that places such as Africa and the Middle East will continue to explode demographically endlessly, these people are not considering that the world will not be able to feed 10 billion or even 8 billion inhabitants in the future.

Global population is not going to explode. Finance and energy will be the barrier.

It is very possible that the Middle East, North Africa and the African continent may again suffer famine on a biblical scale.

A fragmented world,war and food disruptions were the norm for 2,000 years until 1945. The current world of order, GDP exCpansion and population growth are what is truly abnormal from an historical standpoint. The world may be reverting back to a time when chaos was the norm and food supplies were far more unstable.

Rather than the New World Order our planet is returning to the Old World Disorder.

14 Comments on "The New World Disorder – Global Population Crisis"

  1. makati1 on Mon, 1st Apr 2019 11:50 pm 

    “If we spend time traveling the world, what we see is that parts of it (primarily the former “free world”) is unquestionably in a state of political, economic, social and moral decline….The good news is that many other parts of the world are impacted less; others are hardly affected at all and, in still other cases, countries are thriving…. in any era, there are always some countries that are burning out at the same time as others are on the rise….

    At any time in history, some countries are on the way up; some are on the way down. I personally grew up in the 50’s and 60’s, a time when the “free world” (the UK, US, Canada, Australia, etc.) was riding high. All of these nations are now in decline and, as the reader may have noticed, that decline is becoming increasingly rapid….

    If we’re pioneering by nature, we may be interested in one that’s just beginning its rebirth. If we’re seeking more creature comforts, we might pick one that’s further along on its upward trajectory, but still has a fair way to go before peaking….So, again, if we reside in one of the declining countries, are we doomed? Well, no, not at all. In looking at the bigger picture, what we see is that we’re by no means locked in where we are. As “ships pass in the night”, we have the choice to leave one and board another.”

    “Pack a bag. Get on a plane. Go to a few places you’ve never been that, for whatever reason, seem more attractive. But, in making your selections, choose those that are blossoming rather than those that are withering on the vine.” Great advice! I did it 11 years ago and never looked back.

  2. Cloggie on Tue, 2nd Apr 2019 1:12 am 

    Britain, the next Venezuela?

    “Top mandarin’s bombshell No Deal warning: Food up 10%, police unable to protect public, direct rule in Ulster, worse recession than 2008 says leaked letter”

    Brussels: “hard Brexit almost inevitable”

    Verhofstadt: “The House of Commons again votes against all options. A hard #Brexit becomes nearly inevitable. On Wednesday, the U.K. has a last chance to break the deadlock or face the abyss.”

    The EU will only accept a new binding referendum on short notice as a ground for postponing Brexit. That options was yesterday voted down btw again. A referendum would probably lead to the May-deal.

    The situation looks very bleak indeed. Or very bright, from a white-nationalist perspective. The more May-hem, the better. The libtard West is walking on its last legs.

  3. Cloggie on Tue, 2nd Apr 2019 1:23 am

    “European intelligence services see far-right extremism as growing threat”

    Americans may be offering their a**es to the third world, Europe won’t. Europe, the fascist original. And this time France and Russia are on our side.

    “‘You b*****d!’ Benito Mussolini’s politician granddaughter attacks Jim Carrey after he posts a painting of the murderous Italian fascist leader and his mistress hanging following their deaths in 1945”

    Some Canadian libtard mockingly posts a picture of Mussolini, hanging upside down by Italian communists, who know that there American libtard buddies are around the corner.

    The DailyFail interjects the phrase “murderous fascist leader”. The reality was vastly different:

    Local deaths between 1933-1939:

    Italy: less then 10
    Third Reich: 600
    British Empire: 600
    USSR: millions

    Nevertheless, the Anglos will always instinctively choose the side of the communists and paper over reality with lies.

    Interestingly, many British reader commenters express more sympathy for Mussolini than for this Canadian Hollywood clown.

  4. anon on Tue, 2nd Apr 2019 2:09 am 

    some simplifications detract from the rest of the argument: claiming that bretton woods is still in place and functioning is a bit of a stretch these past 45 years…
    yes, it’s all going wobbly and the wheels are coming off. but let’s cloud our view of it with oversimplifications, when in fact it _is_ very simple to see and understand if one is willing to step out of some of the political constructs that obstruct our vision. Yes, it’s easier to slap a name on something and say it’s american hegemony, but it’s something more and something less than that- america itself is also captive in the hegemony of the global economy, which is ultimately an emergent system with no single center. A lot of incongruities seem to demand explanation when one insists on treating political entities as separate when theyre actually bound together in the same supersystem, that is the economy acting as an organism. and that organism is grossly out of balance with itself (inevitable really), is gasping for breath and scratching for any last crumb, because its enormous and insatiable appetitie for, damn well everything, is exhausting all resources available. it’s been cannibalizing itself for some years now, with different parts of the same beast eating each other. the beast won’t last much longer. but it’s not broken down more than superficially along lines on the map and governments anymore and that confuses a lot of people.

  5. anon on Tue, 2nd Apr 2019 2:21 am 

    and the final remarks in the article were indeed pretty well on – not really just since 1945, as there was a global economy since the late 19th century, but that as that breaks down, there will be no population explosion, no economic miracle, no new world order, no world order at all, but a catabolic collapse to lower levels of complexity which correspond to a much more chaotic jumble of local entities with shorter meaningful ranges of influence and activity.

  6. makati1 on Tue, 2nd Apr 2019 3:11 am 

    Unless. Anon, there is WW3 for the remaining resources. That is how most similar situations have ended in the past. Not likely to be different now. Same greed, but with nukes.

  7. Real Green on Tue, 2nd Apr 2019 6:01 am 

    “Pack a bag. Get on a plane. Go to a few places you’ve never been that, for whatever reason, seem more attractive. But, in making your selections, choose those that are blossoming rather than those that are withering on the vine.” Great advice! I did it 11 years ago and never looked back.”

    Great advice? I say stay where you are at and love what you have. Localism is my advice. Planes and cars are what has destroyed this world. Go Real Green!

  8. Real Green on Tue, 2nd Apr 2019 6:44 am 

    “Ancient farming techniques in rural India” ecologist

    “Reviving knowledge One man is trying to change all this. Kumar Neeraj is a fourth-generation farmer of the fields of Bihar, and he sees a new future for the lands that his great grandfather wrestled back from the hands of exploitative higher caste farmers almost 100 years ago. These farmers were forcing the lower caste villagers into slave labor and stealing their farm land. Neeraj’s great grandfather, Bodhan Yadav, would not let this happen. As the story goes, Bodhan, a well-known local wrestler, won a fist-fight and reclaimed the lands. Neeraj said: “My village would not be here today if it wasn’t for my great grandfather giving these lands back to the people.” Neeraj is one of the many farmers reviving the use of the ancient natural fertilizer called Jiwamrita (jeev-amrita), which has been used for thousands of years in India. The only ingredients in this miracle fertilizer are cow dung, cow urine, evaporated cane juice or raw sugar and water. Neeraj says this is all you need in order to cultivate healthy soil.”

    “Khetee project Neeraj’s project is called Khetee – which means ‘farming’ in Sanskrit – and is part of a group of many farms doing very similar things throughout India. Neeraj maintains that he has not invented anything new, he is simply helping to revive a very old practice that he believes will stop global warming, help clean the streams and oceans of the earth and provide poison free food, water and soil to everyone on earth. Neeraj is openly accepting volunteers and learners on his farm. He wants to spread this knowledge to whoever wishes to receive it. I have much gratitude in my heart for the generosity Neeraj and his family showed me during my stay at Khetee farms and I can’t wait to come back in the future to see how the landscape of the fields or Durdih have changed.”

  9. Real Green on Tue, 2nd Apr 2019 6:45 am 

    “Low-tech Magazine: The Printed Website” low tech mag

    “After 12 years, Low-tech Magazine finally makes the jump from web to paper. The first result is a 710-page perfect-bound paperback which is printed on demand and contains 37 of the most recent articles from the website (2012 to 2018). A second volume, collecting articles published between 2007 and 2011, will appear later this year. Book Design The books are based on the same electronic documents that make up the solar powered website of Low-tech Magazine — all articles were converted to Markdown, a lightweight markup language based on plain text files. Therefore, the content is almost identical. Both the books and the website use dithered images, albeit for different reasons. On the solar powered website, dithered images reduce page size and thus energy use. In the book, dithering makes it possible to also include low resolution images. The first volume contains a selection of 159 illustrations.”

  10. Real Green on Tue, 2nd Apr 2019 7:20 am 

    “Italy needs energy storage to shore up 40 GW of renewables coming online in next decade” renewable energy world

    “Italy may need as many as 6 gigawatts of storage by 2030 to balance a boom in renewables. Storage is one of the ways the grid can balance intermittent flows of electricity from wind and solar farms, which generate only when it’s breezy or sunny. The comments show how Terna’s plan to invest a record 6.2 billion euros ($7 billion) will shape Italy’s power grid. Most of the country’s 4.8 gigawatts of storage capacity currently comes from pumped hydro plants, where water is stored in a reservoir and then allowed to flow over a generation turbine during times of peak power demand, according to BloombergNEF. “This is an opportunity not only for the energy sector but also for agriculture,” Ferraris said. “We need sites to store water for agriculture. There could be multiple uses for these sites.’’ His remarks add to the case for pumped hydro plants that other utilities including Iberdrola SA are making. While investors are abuzz about the prospects for deploying batteries on a big enough scale to balance power flows, Ferraris says “electrochemical” technologies aren’t yet advanced enough to act as a buffer at the scale utilities need.”

  11. Real Green on Tue, 2nd Apr 2019 7:21 am 

    “Canada warming at twice the global rate, leaked report finds” faster than expected

    “Canada is, on average, experiencing warming at twice the rate of the rest of the world, with Northern Canada heating up at almost three times the global average, according to a new government report. The study — Canada’s Changing Climate Report (CCCR) — was commissioned by Environment and Climate Change Canada. It says that since 1948, Canada’s annual average temperature over land has warmed 1.7 C, with higher rates seen in the North, the Prairies and northern British Columbia. In Northern Canada, the annual average temperature has increased by 2.3 C. Along with these temperature increases, the CCCR says Canada is experiencing increases in precipitation (particularly in winter), “extreme fire weather” and water supply shortages in summer, and a heightened risk of coastal flooding.”

  12. Real Dumbass on Tue, 2nd Apr 2019 4:04 pm 

    I like to sock-puppet, instead of doing any actual work. Inst it obvious? exceptional spam

  13. Real Green on Tue, 2nd Apr 2019 4:25 pm 

    “Democratic Green New Deal Defectors Chart Their Own Climate Path” bloomberg

    “The Green New Deal is a political document,” said Casten, a member of the moderate New Democrat Coalition of 101 lawmakers. “If we all passed it tomorrow, it wouldn’t make a lick of difference.” Casten is a Democratic Green New Deal defector, one of a group of moderates who are rejecting the progressive package that has become a lightning rod for critics and are instead crafting their own climate-change policies. Among the ideas some defectors are considering are measures that would impose a national mandate for the use of cleaner power sources or implementing a carbon tax.”

    “The Green New Deal is aspirational,” Luria said. “What we plan to do is offer tangible, achievable things.”

    “One of them is a federal mandate that could require the use of clean energy sources such as wind, solar A carbon tax is also being eyed by the House’s main tax writing committee…and other renewables as well as possibly nuclear and coal with carbon capture technologies as well”

  14. Dooma on Tue, 2nd Apr 2019 11:31 pm 

    I have absolutely no doubt that China will take Australia and make it part of it’s growing empire within about 10-20 years. I doubt that a single shot fired.

    This century is going to belong to Asia.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *