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The Energy Transition

The Energy Transition thumbnail

by Dennis Coyne

I expect World Fossil fuel output to peak in 2025. If the World economy continues to grow in the future, a gap between Energy produced from all sources (including non-fossil fuels) and the demand for Energy will grow over time. If the gap between energy demand and energy supply is not filled by growth in non-fossil fuel energy sources there must be lower demand for energy due to reduced economic growth rates.

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Energy Demand

The analysis that follows attempts to determine demand for primary energy under the assumption that energy supply is plentiful so that supply is constrained by demand. The consumption of primary energy is related closely to Real GDP (constant US dollars at market exchange rates).

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In 1988 Real GDP was about 35 trillion (T) 2010 US $ and in 2000 Real GDP was about 50 T 2010$. The energy intensity of Real GDP measured in exajoules (EJ) per T 2010 US$ of Real GDP has decreased over time as shown in the chart that follows.

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To find the annual rate of decrease in the Energy intensity of real GDP from 1970 to 2015, I look at the slope of the natural log of energy intensity vs. year, the average annual rate of decrease was 0.93% per year from 1970 to 2015, chart below.

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There was a period with a faster annual rate of decrease in energy intensity of 1.3% per year from 1987 to 2000 as shown in the chart below.

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It is not likely that a 1.3% annual rate of decrease could be maintained for very long and might not be possible due to diminishing returns. Recently, energy intensity has decreased at an annual rate of 1% from 2010 to 2015, this rate might continue for some time as thermal losses from electric power generation are reduced as wind, solar, and hydro replace some power generation, as heat pumps replace furnaces and boilers, and as batteries replace some of the fuel used for transportation.

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The projection of future energy intensity of real GDP assumes a 0.93% annual rate of decrease until 2050 and a 0.0% annual rate of decrease from 2051 to 2100. This is shown in the chart that follows.

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The chart below shows the natural log of Energy Intensity of real GDP from 1970 to 2050, the slope of the curve is the average annual rate of decrease of energy intensity. The trend line is for the 1970 to 2015 data only.

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World real GDP per capita has grown relatively steadily since 1971 at an annual rate of about 1.45% per year.  The slope of the trend line for the natural log of real GDP per capita is the average growth rate shown in the chart below for 1971 to 2015.

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I assume this 1.45%/year average growth rate continues until 2020, falls to 1.4%/a from 2021 to 2025, to 1.35%/a from 2026-2030, and to 1.3% from 2031-2039. I assume real GDP per capita annual growth rates gradually increase as the economy adapts. Real GDP per capita grows at 1.35%/a from 2040-2045 and then remains at 1.4%/a from 2046 to 2100. Note that lower growth rates imply lower energy demand, if all else is held equal.

I use the UN medium fertility population scenarios to estimate future population growth, but my expectation is that population will grow more slowly than this projection.

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By combining the population scenario above with the GDP per capita growth scenario from 2016 to 2100 we can project future GDP.

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From 2010 to 2015 World Real GDP grew at an average rate of 2.5% per year, below I show the World Real GDP growth rate for the scenario above from 2017 to 2100.

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From 1980 to 2015 the average annual real GDP growth rate was 2.9%/year. Slower population growth is the primary cause of the slowdown in real GDP growth in this model.

Primary Energy Demand is just the Energy intensity of Real GDP times the Real GDP, the projection is shown below. The sharp increase in projected demand after 2050 is due to the (unrealistic) assumption that energy intensity will stop decreasing in 2050. A more realistic scenario would have energy intensity continue to decrease from 2051 to 2100, but at a continually smaller rate of decrease. This “unrealistic” scenario was chosen in anticipation of objections that my projection might be too optimistic.

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I have covered fossil fuel supply on many occasions and the scenario below is based on my medium oil, natural gas, and coal scenarios (these will be covered briefly at the end of the post.)

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The difference between primary energy demand and fossil fuel supply (where we assume fossil fuel demand is equal to fossil fuel supply) is simply the non-fossil fuel demand.

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In order to meet this demand, 2015 non-fossil fuel supply (77 EJ) would need to grow at the rates shown in the chart below. Note that the 2002-2015 average rate of non-fossil fuel growth was about 2.9% per year. Petroleum output grew by 6.5%/year on average from 1900-1972.

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For comparison to past growth rates of energy output, the chart below compares oil and natural gas output (petroleum output) from 1921 to 1970 to the growth of non-fossil fuel energy in the scenario above from 2016 to 2065. The scenario is conservative relative to past history.

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If the World wanted to reduce carbon emissions, a continued growth rate of non-fossil fuels from 2038 to 2063 of 5%/year could potentially reduce all fossil fuel use as an energy source to zero. In practice, fossil fuel use is unlikely to be reduced to zero until growth slows to a level where all steel can be produced from recycled materials, this is not likely before 2100. Lower population growth rates would reduce the need for economic growth and the need for steel output, in addition bio char is a possible substitute for coal in steel making which would require research and development.

A future transition to an economy using fewer fossil fuels will be necessary due to peak fossil fuels and such an energy transition may be possible, but is far from certain. High growth rates (5%/year or more) of non-fossil fuel energy after 2035 could reduce most oil and natural gas use by 2065, which would reduce carbon emissions to the atmosphere. A reduction of coal consumption might depend on increased steel recycling, lower economic growth rates, reduced use of steel in general, and the potential use of biochar as a substitute for coal where new steel is needed.

In a future post I will consider how variations on this basic transition scenario might influence future climate change by applying simple climate models such as CSALT and MAGICC.

Appendix

An introduction to the oil shock model can be found here.

Medium oil scenario – URR=17,600 EJ through 2100

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Carbon emissions are 330 Pg (or Gt) from 1870 to 2100. URR in barrels is 3074 Gb.

Medium Natural Gas scenario– URR =16,300 EJ through 2100

Carbon emissions 230 Pg from 1870-2100. URR is 15,200 TCF (trillion cubic feet) through 2100.

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Medium Coal scenario– URR=16,400 EJ through 2100

Carbon emissions 410 Pg from 1770-2100, URR=390 Gtoe or 800 Gt from 1770-2100.

Other carbon emissions from land use change, natural gas flaring, and cement production from 1770 to 2100 estimated as 230 Pg C, with total carbon emissions of 1200 Pg from 1770 to 2100.

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An estimate in 2009 by Allen et al suggests 1000 Pg of total carbon emissions has about a 50% chance of keeping warming below 2 C above preindustrial temperatures. If that estimate is accurate we would need to reduce fossil fuel emissions and cement emissions to zero by 2060 to have a 50% probability of remaining below 2C above pre-industrial temperatures for global surface temperatures, a difficult task at best.

Peak Oil Barrel_



55 Comments on "The Energy Transition"

  1. shortonoil on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 11:26 am 

    If you look at Mr. Coyne’s third graph “Energy Intesity” you will note that it has been adjusted to 2010 dollars. This completely skews the graph to show a more favorable scenario that what has actually occurred. The correct graph that is calculated in actual dollars (nominal) and which is based on EIA and World Bank data is:

    http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_008.htm

    What his graph is demonstrating is the BLS estimate of the inflation index. That index is designed to show the impact of inflation on all items bought, and sold in the economy. It is not energy specific, and energy has certainly not followed it. Unless Mr. Coyne can demonstrate that the price of energy has set pace with the price of women’s underwear, and Twinkies it should be ignored.

  2. Outcast_Searcher on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 11:49 am 

    Thanks for a balanced article that points out that we have a big problem with AGW and energy needs globally, without the constant (unrealistic and thus far completely wrong) claims that the economy will collapse any time now, and that we’re all doomed in the short term.

    Doomers might want to not that long term average global GDP growth since 2010 is close to the longer term average — not a global economic “depression” like doomers keep claiming.

    Also, the realistic projection of energy intensity to continue to decline out to 2050 helps buy us time. (As the author notes, assuming ZERO energy intensity improvement after 2050 is unrealistic. Projecting that growth rate to slow, just as long term global GDP growth is likely to slow, is more realistic).

    So this implies that we have a very serious problem with AGW, but that if humanity got serious about tackling it, we could make it a horse race, at least as far as striving to greatly forestall the 2 degree celcius tipping point — by moving to green tech as rapidly as feasible — and making that a SERIOUS priority, not just talking about it in conferences.

    Seeing how rapidly PHEV’s that are VOLT clones with smaller batteries (for now) but can deliver the ICE engine power and the electric motor power on demand (i.e. for passing or merging or emergencies) by simply pressing the accelerator, by great car companies, is a great sign, IMO.

    Small engines. 600ish mile range. Pure EV short range (20 to 30 miles, typically) if the driver doesn’t stomp on the accelerator, and very reasonable overall performance for a cost (minus credits, plus modest options, for now) roughly of the average car.

    So here’s a potential for a TREMENDOUS start for the transition of cars that is economically feasible, that is happening much more quickly (MANY models out by 2018, and many more coming) than I would have imagined likely.

    The 25ish mile pure EV range eliminates roughly half of the demand for burning gas or diesel in the global personal car fleet.

    So the next step is to step up incentives to move the grid power to greener sources, and further incent people to use solar installations at home — since plugging in to use dirty electricity doesn’t solve the problem (even though natural gas is cleaner than gasoline or diesel, so it helps).

  3. Outcast_Searcher on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 11:55 am 

    In the former post I should have mentioned that the key thing about these viable now and here now or soon PHEV’s is that it buys us time for the economically feasible and practical EV fleet to be built out.

    For example, if the Chevy Bolt or Tesla Model 3 are delayed or are disappointing in the short run, it gives time for those companies and competitors to learn from those problems and make the EV’s truly viable as peoples’ personal cars, while the grid and charging stations are built out.

  4. shortonoil on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 11:57 am 

    “Also, the realistic projection of energy intensity to continue to decline out to 2050 helps buy us time.”

    So what you are inferring is that either the World Bank, or the EIA is in error. We are so glad to stand corrected? By the true expert!

  5. antaris on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 12:22 pm 

    Out I have driven an EV for 4 1/2 years . It has been fun but also educational. We are on one side of a river and the electrical only society is on the other. A bridge has just started to be constructed but will never reach the other side. Some of the people that come to this site realize we are in big trouble , but almost 100% percent of people in the first world think the way it is now will go on indefinitely. One day soon the gas station will be out of gas and the electrical grid won’t supply any power for the hand full of EV’s.

  6. Davy on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 12:35 pm 

    We can extrapolate all we like goal seeking and expecting graphs and formulas to work as they always have. The problem is they work until they don’t. We see this today with academics ignoring catastrophic bifurcations that come with complete systematic disturbances. The whole system disturbs and changes. There comes a point in a process where an inflection occurs that completely changes the dynamics of that process. There is no mention whatsoever at all of possible break points.

    Any projections beyond just a few years are useless because we have entered a new systematic regime across a broad spectrum. This means we are going to see multiple deviations from the normal we have known through the 20th century. These deviations are all going to be negative and negatively reinforcing. Climate will influence energy that will influence economy that will influence the social fabric all combining and resulting in destructive change. We surely will not see more than another 500MIL populations, yet, we see in the projections no limits and no disturbances. When I see an article like this it reminds me of the blind leading the blind.

  7. Davy on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 12:39 pm 

    Outcast, there is more to reality than auto’s. We are not going to live or die because of autos. EV and PHEV are not going to save the world. What is needed to save the world is so far past these trivial issues. There is nothing that is going to save the world because the world is already beyond saving.

  8. Northwest Resident on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 1:35 pm 

    “we have entered a new systematic regime across a broad spectrum”

    No kidding!

    “Global markets beckon for more loosening. Markets demand that the Bank of Japan turns crazy reckless, even as evidence mounts that now routine reckless hasn’t worked. The markets need Chinese policymakers to ensure $3.0 TN of annual Credit growth, even though it’s apparent to communist leadership that such a course is fraught with major risks. The markets stipulate that the Draghi ECB must continue printing at a Trillion annualized pace, in the face of unprecedented market distortions, internal policy discord and great financial, economic, social and geopolitical risks.”

    http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2016/07/weekly-commentary-bubble-battles.html

    Dennis Coyne’s world, like almost everybody else’s, is totally dependent on continued rapid exponential credit expansion. When the credit expansion ends, so too will all that we have come to regard as “the world as we know it”.

    And before credit stops expanding, any one of a number of circling black swans could land and throw human civilization into absolute chaos.

    Blind leading the blind — or, blind trying to convince themselves that they are on a safe and secure path with a billion-person long line of equally blind people closely following behind.

  9. John Kintree on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 2:03 pm 

    Agree with Davy that extrapolations work until they don’t.

    Reminds me of some humor by the Bonzos.

    A man walks into the cleaners to pick up his suit. The attendant says it wont’ be ready for three weeks.

    The guy says, “But the name on the shop says 59 minute cleaners.”

    The attendant says, “That’s just the name of the shop, dearie.”

  10. shortonoil on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 2:20 pm 

    “And before credit stops expanding, any one of a number of circling black swans could land and throw human civilization into absolute chaos.”

    I posted this earlier in a different tread, but it truly shows what kind of problems are right in front of us.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-30/blood-continues-flow-us-oil-industry-precious-metals-rally

    Oil production counts directly for 38% of the world’s economy. When it is in a crisis so also is the rest of the world. The industry can not survive on $40 oil. You are looking at a black, flying elephant, and it is coming in for a landing!

  11. Apneaman on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 2:26 pm 

    Outcast, this idea that 2C is the tipping point is complete bullshit and has no scientific validity. It never came from any scientist or scientific organization. It came from economist William Nordhaus and it’s sole purpose was to stall as long as possible. Go ahead, show me the science that says 2C is a tipping point. 1C, which we have already crossed, was the tipping point. Tipping point being defined as not being able to go back. Tipping point also being defined as triggering positive self reinforcing feedback loops, which there are dozens underway – they cannot be stopped. If the humans disappeared today the feedback loops would slow down, but many are going to run their course and more fossil fuel burning just makes it all go faster(forcing) along with continued deforestation, industrial ag and meat and development. Inertia is a real bitch.

    [PART 1] EXPOSÉ | THE 2º DEATH DANCE – THE 1º COVER-UP

    “The Origins of 2ºC – Neoclassical Economist Bill Nordhaus

    The 2ºC temperature rise “target,” which is the only limit in the text of the ‘noted’ Copenhagen Accord, may well be one of the least understood cover-ups in history. The first suggestion to use 2° Celsius as a critical temperature limit for climate policy was not made by an esteemed climate scientist. Rather it was made by well-known neoclassical economist, W.D. Nordhaus, in a discussion paper of the prestigious Cowles Foundation. In 1977 Nordhaus stated: “If there were global temperatures more than 2 or 3° above the current average temperature, this would take the climate outside of the range of observations which have been made over the last several hundred thousand years.”

    “Today, this 2ºC target, largely defined as the maximum allowable warming to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate has replaced an almost unknown 1ºC target highlighted in the 1990 UN AGGG (United Nations Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases) report when climate change as a global issue was widely unknown.”

    “The Origins of 1ºC – United Nations 1990

    “…[B]eyond 1 degree C may elicit rapid, unpredictable and non-linear responses that could lead to extensive ecosystem damage.”

    – United Nations Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases

    In 1986, three international bodies, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU), who had co-sponsored the Villach Conference in 1985, formed the Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases (AGGG), a small international committee with responsibility for assessing the available scientific information about the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the likely impact.”

    http://www.theartofannihilation.com/part-1-expose-the-2%C2%BA-death-dance-the-1%C2%BA-cover-up/

    It’s too late and anyone claiming otherwise is either lying or does not understand physics, atmospheric chemistry and the history of this planet. Since complex life started on the earth there is nothing that has changed the environment at the scale and speed that the humans have. Unprecedented in every way. The humans have altered everything – the nutrient cycle, the hydrologic cycle and on and on.

    Current pace of environmental change is unprecedented in Earth’s history

    http://www.bristol.ac.uk/news/2016/january/pace-environment-change.html

    The 6th mass extinction is well underway and the humans are arguing about barrels of oil and EV’s.

    Humans could be among the victims of sixth ‘mass extinction’, scientists warn

    “The world is embarking on its sixth mass extinction with animals disappearing about 100 times faster than they used to, scientists warn, and humans could be among the first victims of the next extinction event.

    Not since the age of the dinosaurs ended 66 million years ago has the planet been losing species at this rapid a rate, a study led by experts at Stanford University, Princeton University and the University of California, Berkeley said.

    The study “shows without any significant doubt that we are now entering the sixth great mass extinction event,” co-author and Stanford University professor of biology Paul Ehrlich said.

    And the study, which was published in the journal Science Advances on Friday and described by its authors as “conservative”, said humans were likely to be among the species lost.

    “If it is allowed to continue, life would take many millions of years to recover and our species itself would likely disappear early on,” lead author Gerardo Ceballos of the Universidad Autonoma de Mexico said.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-20/sixth-mass-extinction-impact-humans-study-says/6560700

    Could be? That concession is predicated on the humans stopping – something they, like all life, are not programmed to do.

  12. Rick Bronson on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 3:22 pm 

    Wow, lot of charts.

    Much of the stats are based on the trends in the last few years which saw a big jump in shale output. But since 2015-H2, the shale is gradually going down and still there is a glut. The role of alternatives is gently ignored here.

    While Coal peaked in 2015, most likely Oil has peaked in 2016.

    Please see the revenues of Oil companies, and they got slammed because of the lower prices. Soon this will lead to lower output from these producers as well. If the developing countries find a way to keep the Oil consumption same and yet increase the transportation using alternative fuels. Then we can declare a freeze in Oil consumption for few years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_oil_and_gas_companies_by_revenue

  13. Rick Bronson on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 4:12 pm 

    Here is another form of transition which will never appear in the charts.

    “China currently leads the world in methanol fuel blending. Last year, China used as much as 12 million metric tons (4 billion gallons) of methanol to fuel their cars trucks and buses. ”

    And they are moving at a much faster pace than the US is moving on Ethanol.
    All these activities will keep the oil consumption at bay.

    http://www.methanolfuels.org/on-the-road/demonstration-projects/

  14. shortonoil on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 4:28 pm 

    “And they are moving at a much faster pace than the US is moving on Ethanol. “

    Ethanol has an energy content (exergy) of about 69,000 BTU per gallon. That compares to a 37.5° API crude with 140,000. It is essentially energy neutral to the end user. Producing additional ethanol is not going to help in the least. If volume was the critical variable we could start pumping out lake Michigan. Why the Chinese would be producing so much ethanol I have no idea, but it is certainly not to power China. The only time it does any powering is when it is mixed with tomato juice.

  15. observerbrb on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 5:05 pm 

    Meanwhile, the energy transition goes on in Saudi Arabia, as well…

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-31/saudi-banks-offered-4bn-bailout-avoid-liquidity-crisis

  16. Outcast_Searcher on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 5:47 pm 

    Ah ShortOnOil.

    The guy who makes stuff up so he can sell his “advice”

    “Also, the realistic projection of energy intensity to continue to decline out to 2050 helps buy us time.”
    So what you are inferring is that either the World Bank, or the EIA is in error. We are so glad to stand corrected? By the true expert!

    Using your own EIA sources you’re complaining about, but more modern statistics:

    http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=27032

    http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.GDP.PUSE.KO.PP.KD

    So, as many credible sources indluding the EIA and the World Bank say, the global energy intensity in constant dollars is declining meaningfully.

    I point out that this is helpful, to those trying to balance the books.

    I’m not trying to sell anything, and I’m not claiming to be an expert. I am claiming to be able to read. So do you have an actual point, or do you just resent it when people point out that a constant drumbeat of doom isn’t the only message conveyed by factual data?

    We’ve been over this point before. The graph you point to has an end point almost a decade old. I am referring to fairly current data.

    How about some credible citations? Where do you get that BTU’s produced cost more in PPP dollars, which contradicts what the world bank and the EIA say when you search for something like “global energy intensity per dollar of GDP?

    Just making stuff up repeatedly doesn’t give you credibility.

  17. shortonoil on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 5:54 pm 

    “Meanwhile, the energy transition goes on in Saudi Arabia, as well…”

    The richest oil producing nation on earth must now bail out its banks? As we have been saying it will require $79 trillion over the next decade to keep the world’s oil flowing. The thing our Model does not tell us is; who is going to get stuck paying for it!

    Any guesses??

    http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

  18. Outcast_Searcher on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 6:00 pm 

    “Outcast, there is more to reality than auto’s. We are not going to live or die because of autos. EV and PHEV are not going to save the world. What is needed to save the world is so far past these trivial issues. There is nothing that is going to save the world because the world is already beyond saving.”

    Says the constant short term doom proclaimer, without any meaningful data, BTW.

    I never said reality was all autos. However, calling all autos “trivial” is nonsense.

    https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/sources/transportation.html

    Transport and Electricity production combined are over HALF of GHG emissions, per the EPA.

    There is considerable effort underway to greatly reduce both of those sources. (I would certainly like to see MORE effort — I’m merely relaying factual data).

    But yes, we can sit around and repeatedly cry that “we’re doomed”.

    Since you find that more productive, I’m sure you’ll continue. I’ll continue to look at real world data, try to do my part, and hope for the best.

  19. sunweb on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 6:10 pm 

    Outcast – You sir are the doomer. Your mind set is dooming the world to more people, more assaults on the environment and a less livable world for the future. Those of us who look at the whole system are realist.

  20. Apneaman on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 6:48 pm 

    Outcast, the EIA and the World Bank are credible sources? Are you fucking serious? If you really believe that then you truly are a babe in the woods.

    The World Bank, Poverty Creation and the Banality of Evil

    http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/29851-the-world-bank-poverty-creation-and-the-banality-of-evil

    How much creditably does an institution with major funding, a ton of technology and staffed with hundreds of highly experienced university educated professionals that fuck ups this badly have?

    EIA Cuts Recoverable California Shale Estimates By 96%

    http://www.businessinsider.com/eia-monterey-shale-2014-5

    Outtcast, I get that you are the type of person who has/needs/is wired to believe in hierarchy and authority. I’m not saying that is wrong, because it is, in fact rooted in your biologly the same way my anti authoritism and skepticism is. Sooner or later and not much later, you are going to have to deal with the fact that all the institutions of capitalism and western democracy are corrupt and in their final stage. Every system humans have developed ends. It appears to be a pattern and the evidence for that is overwhelming. Just as overwhelming is the evidence that this civilization has and is making all the same major mistakes that the chain of dead civilizations before us made except the scale is unlike anything ever seen or imagined. The managerial class – politicians, bureaucrats, PR people are hanging on for as long as they can and there is no other option, but to kick the can and to do that they need to lie and break laws or walk away. Forget about prediction dates and numbers and step back and take a look. It’s broken and we are running on fumes and faith. Misplaced faith.

    Y’all want graphs and data and charts and prediction dates?

    Limits to Growth is on schedule. Collapse likely around 2020

    http://energyskeptic.com/2016/limits-to-growth-is-on-schedule-collapse-likely-around-2020/

    Only 3 1/2 years to wait and find out – tick tick tick tick tick……

  21. makati1 on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 6:54 pm 

    In the US, cars ARE the most important energy user to the average person. You cannot live outside of a city and not own a car. Most need it to get to work, buy food, and connect with family.

    I recently flew over most of the US (Seattle to Dallas to Orlando to Philly to Chicago and then back over Canada.) and looking down, there were long stretches between even homes in much of the country and even longer stretches between towns and cities. Not possible to walk or even use horses and keep any real connections. Reality is a bitch.

  22. Northwest Resident on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 7:02 pm 

    short — Good article by SRSrocco that you linked to.

    “Without rising energy production, economic activity goes south … in a big way.”

    No credit/debt expansion = no rising energy production = no economic growth = no ability to pay off old loans to enable taking on of new loans = destabilizing defaults and bankruptcies = no credit/debt expansion. Vicious cycle we find ourselves in.

    Too bad all the vast oil fields have already been tapped and/or depleted. A big burst of high-net-energy oil into the global jugular might get things moving again. For a while. Until that oil, too, runs out.

    When this current credit/debt expansion bubble pops, we’ll be in a whole new world, one in which I won’t even be surprised to see flying elephants.

  23. onlooker on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 7:03 pm 

    “Outcast – You sir are the doomer. Your mind set is dooming the world to more people, more assaults on the environment and a less livable world for the future. Those of us who look at the whole system are realist.” Well said Sun. People are stuck seeing the trees for wont of seeing the entire forest. They see good trends yet fail to see the overarching and underlying grim reality. That reality is that we have a humongous world population that is consuming prodigiously and in the process every day is reducing and decimating the natural ecosystem foundations which allow our Economy and all life on Earth to exist

  24. Boat on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 7:04 pm 

    sunweb,

    Pointing out factual data concerning innovation, efficiency and improved energy intensity are just pieces to the story that include population overshoot, finite resources and climate change. To ignore any facts is irresponsible. The debate on the impacts of those facts keeps changing because knowledge and time change the data and how we should look at the data.
    The weirdest thing I have learned since coming to this site is humans dispute facts if it doesn’t fit their narrative.

  25. onlooker on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 7:10 pm 

    Can I ask everyone a question. Does anybody think that our huge world population can or would wish to substantially curtail their consumption patterns. NO AND NO

  26. yoshua on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 7:20 pm 

    I have been looking for an oil company that is doing fine, a state owned oil company that is doing fine, an oil producing nation that is doing fine. They seem to all be in trouble.

    In fact every economy, every nation around the world seems to be in trouble. Something seems to be wrong and it seems to be connected to oil.

    Failed economies, failed states, war and refugee floods seems to follow after another. The collapse seems to have started already.

  27. shortonoil on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 7:23 pm 

    ” Just making stuff up repeatedly doesn’t give you credibility.”

    http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_008.htm

    That is a graph that we constructed from EIA and World Bank data sets. Now exactly what was make up? The only thing that was made up was something pulled out of your posterior orifice!

    To be a viable critic it is necessary that you be able to count to 21 without taking off your shoes, and socks and pulling down your pants.

  28. Plantagenet on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 7:37 pm 

    This article is the typical globalist BS that we can wait until 2035 to start reducing CO2 emissions. Sorry, but the climate doesn’t work that way. Every bit of CO2 that goes into the atmosphere is gong to be there for hundreds of years, producing irreversible climate changes, melting glaciers, rising sea level, and generally boogering up rains and drought patterns.

    The CO2 reductions have to start a lot sooner than 2035.

    Cheers!

  29. shortonoil on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 7:43 pm 

    “short — Good article by SRSrocco that you linked to.”

    Steve St. Angelo does a pretty job, his research is very precise. The one point that he failed to mention in that article is that these producers are writing down reserves based on their original costs, even if that was 20 years ago. By our calculations the present cost of replacing a barrel of reserves is $71. If they were using that number their losses would be tremendous!

    Energy models appear to give a much better perspective of the situation than general bookkeeping methods. Bookkeeping methods are a historical record; their ability to project into the future is very limited.

  30. Rick Bronson on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 7:46 pm 

    Hello Shortonoil

    Ethanol has Input/Output ratio of 1 : 2.7 and that is why the Ethanol production is rising so fast and USA is exporting the product to 50 countries and the volume continues to rise despite Oil prices crashing.

    This link will give you better idea.
    China is ramping up Methanol which is even cheaper to produce and it can be produced from biomass and Natural gas.

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_YOP_NUS_MBBLD&f=W

  31. Apneaman on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 8:06 pm 

    onlooker, there are definitely many wishers out there, like the environmental and alt energy communities/hopium pushers. I see no curtailing. For at least the last decade, I have been reading polls taken in the rich countries that show anywhere from 30-50% of respondents think AGW is s serious threat. Now if 30 – 50% of the adult/working population of rich countries were serious and cut their consumption by 30 – 50% it wouldn’t it have shown up in the emissions and economic numbers? Take note that these people tend to be “better” educated and thus higher earners over all. They could cut their consumption by 30 – 50% and still own a vehicle, a home and live a very comfortable life. All the data shows that consumption has carried on and emissions have gone up. For the most part there has been a lot of wishful thinking and talking and much feel good green consumerism and donating to corporate corrupted/controlled NGO’s – the gate keepers.

  32. makati1 on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 8:34 pm 

    If Americans, even 30% cut their consumption by even 30%, it would have been a very obvious blip on the economic and emissions charts. A definite 2-3% drop. If it was 50% and 50%, it would have been almost double that.

    Didn’t happen.

  33. Apneaman on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 8:54 pm 

    mak, now the bill is coming due – all over the place. I had google email alerts for flood, wildfire & heatwave. I took them off – too much. Now I just get links to the latest disaster in comment sections or at aggregator sites and most of the links I don’t put up. Too much. Just ones that are record breakers or affect many people.

    Water levels in MD flood today rose 20 ft in matter of minutes, smashing records dating back 150 yrs. Wet new world

    https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/759892565374095360

    Not that anyone is paying attention.

  34. makati1 on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 9:14 pm 

    Here is a chart you might find interesting:

    http://truepublica.org.uk/global/efficient-economy-world/

    You are in for a surprise…lol.

  35. Apneaman on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 9:14 pm 

    Ladies and gentlemen, I’d like to introduce to you the new international recording superstar, Weird Ape Doomervic, with his new hit single – Feeling Doomy.

    H/T Weird Al Yankovic.

    H/T Simon and Garfunkel – The 59th Street Bridge Song (Feelin’ Groovy)

    59th Minute Song (Feeling Doomy)

    Oh no, we moved too fast.
    Didn’t make the carbon last.
    Just kicked the can down the road.
    No more fun and feelin’ Doomy.

    Ba da, Ba da, Ba da, Ba da…Feelin’ Doomy.

    Hello losers,
    What cha knowin’?
    I’ve come to watch your species goin’.
    Ain’t cha got no tears for me?
    Doot-in’ doo-doo,
    Feelin’ Doomy.

    Got no dirty deeds to do,
    No promises to un-keep.
    I’m starving and diseased and ready to sleep.
    Let Mother Nature drop all of her fury on me.
    Life, I’ll miss you,
    All is Doomy.

    Ba da, Ba da, Ba da, Ba da…..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMDjIbfKcXE

  36. Boat on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 9:21 pm 

    “yoshua on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 7:20 pm

    I have been looking for an oil company that is doing fine, a state owned oil company that is doing fine, an oil producing nation that is doing fine. They seem to all be in trouble.”

    If some countries that produced oil were a company that was only responsible to its shareholders they would be wildly successful. It’s when countries wildly outspend their revenues they get into financial trouble.

    https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/regions-topics.cfm?RegionTopicID=OPEC

  37. Apneaman on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 9:26 pm 

    Second Body Recovered, Main Street Ravaged After Floodwaters Surge Through Ellicott City, Maryland – Video

    “More than 6 inches of rain fell in a short period of time, resulting in torrents that swept cars away and prompted water rescues.”

    “It’s total devastation, people’s lives in this community are going to be changed forever,” Hogan told the Weather Channel on Sunday morning.

    Despite the destruction, Hogan also remarked on the heroism of locals amid a disaster that will likely go down as the worst in the suburb’s history.

    “There were incredible rescues … people being rescued out of cars with human chains reaching from restaurants to try to get people out of cars,” Hogan said. “A lot of heroes last night that saved a lot of lives.”

    https://weather.com/news/weather/news/ellicott-city-maryland-flooding-saturday

  38. JuanP on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 9:35 pm 

    Boat “The weirdest thing I have learned since coming to this site is humans dispute facts if it doesn’t fit their narrative.”
    I guess you meant to say “… that humans dispute facts if they don’t fit their narratives”.
    By the way, I learnt that when I was in kindergarten. You must be a very slow learner! LOL!

  39. Rick Bronson on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 9:49 pm 

    With the cut in fuel subsidies, the oil consumption has grown the least in Saudi Arabia.

    Higher gas prices means more fuel efficiency. All buildings will be taking steps to cut the power consumption by installing more efficient Air-conditioners.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-31/saudi-arabia-oil-demand-growth-at-6-year-low-as-economy-sputters

  40. JuanP on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 9:49 pm 

    Boat “If some countries that produced oil were a company that was only responsible to its shareholders they would be wildly successful.”
    But they are not, are they? And you are the one that claims to be grounded in reality! You are such a fucking retard! LOL!

    And, by the way, the right way to write that would have been “If some countries that PRODUCE oil were COMPANIES that WERE only reponsible to THEIR shareholders they would be wildly successful.”

    At least that sentence would have been grammatically correct even while remaining a fantasy completely disconnected from reality. You just love showing off what a functional illiterate you are! LOL!

  41. Apneaman on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 9:57 pm 

    Rick, some of that effiency will be negated due to rising temps in that already hot region. Already well under way.

    Two Middle East locations hit 129 degrees, hottest ever in Eastern Hemisphere, maybe the world/b>

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/07/22/two-middle-east-locations-hit-129-degrees-hottest-ever-in-eastern-hemisphere-maybe-the-world/

  42. Apneaman on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 9:58 pm 

    Climate Victims: Every Second, One Person Is Displaced by Disaster

    http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/37046-climate-victims-every-second-one-person-is-displaced-by-disaster

  43. Apneaman on Sun, 31st Jul 2016 11:07 pm 

    Incessant rains continue to cripple India; lightning kills 27 in Odisha

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Incessant-rains-continue-to-cripple-India-lightning-kills-27-in-Odisha/articleshow/53468477.cms?

  44. Apneaman on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 12:28 am 

    1,500 reindeer dead, 40 humans hospitalized amid anthrax outbreak in Siberia

    “At least 40 people from nomadic communities in northern Siberia have been hospitalized amid an anthrax outbreak that scientists believe was caused by thawing reindeer carcasses.

    Northern Siberia has been hit with a bout of weird weather, including a heatwave that has led to record-high temperatures. In the Yamal tundra, which sits above the Arctic Circle, temperatures soared to 95 degrees Fahrenheit, compared to the average of 77 degrees this time of the year. Scientists have linked the heatwave to climate change.

    The warm temperatures caused the region’s permafrost — a layer of permanently frozen subsurface soil — to thaw, unleashing the deadly bacteria. Scientists believe the melting unearthed the frozen carcass of a reindeer that died in the last anthrax outbreak in 1968.”

    https://news.vice.com/article/reindeer-dead-humans-hospitalized-anthrax-outbreak-russia-siberia

  45. makati1 on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 4:35 am 

    If you are bored with transition fairy tales, here are a few facts about our “enemy”:

    “Here’s a list of FACTS that the Elite doesn’t want you to know. Everything you know about Russia – is wrong.

    Russia is 25 years old.
    Russia, and the Soviet Union, are 2 completely different countries. They are like comparing the British colonies and the United States of America. It’s a different system, different rules, different territory, different everything.
    The United States developed a long term strategy to destroy the Soviet Union – in order to create Russia today (an open, market based economy). In other words, Russia today is what Washington had planned for during a 40-50 year period after World War 2, spent billions of dollars, built countless missile silos and other hardware.
    Russia has one of the fastest growing middle classes in the world See here
    Russia is currently the #3 country ranked in terms of total immigrants in the world, closely behind Germany and the United States. See here
    Unlike most of European powers, Russia was not a very ambitious or successful colonial power. The extent of Russia’s colonialism was Alaska, but this was really just the business idea of some fur-trappers; it wasn’t supported by Moscow very much. With a few rare exeptions, Russia never ‘invaded’ another country. Mostly Russia has defended itself from invaders, at least historically speaking. Even today, Russia’s foreign policy surrounds a ‘defense’ doctrine, not an ‘invasion’ doctrine. Being attacked nearly every 20 or 30 years throughout history, the Kremlin has reason for such a policy. Why did every Empire throughout history want to invade Russia? Because of the nice weather? No, because of the vast untapped resources. For a more academic answer, checkout Brzezinski’s “Grand Chess Board” – certainly Sun Tzu would agree, controlling Russia and North America is necessary for real global domination, for a number of geostrategic, logistic, and economic reasons.
    Russia is an Emerging Market (EM) – Why is it emerging? Because it’s just starting to build economic systems. In Russia there’s no class action litigation industry. There’s no FTC. There’s no bankruptcy rules. But all that’s changing. Change takes time – it will likely be a generation or several generations.
    The Forex software that runs the algorithmic Forex world, Meta Trader, is from Russia. Although primarily used outside of Russia, it’s built native in Russian language, from Khazan (although headquartered in Cyprus).
    Russia has massive untapped resources unlike any other country in the world, most notably but not only oil. Russia includes 11 time zones and is one of Planet Earth’s most rich and undeveloped land masses, which includes mountains, forests, deserts, tundra, and ice oceans.
    No one is starving in Russia. In fact, due to the trade war between Russia, the EU, and the United States, they’re even burning and destroying food if it is found to come from blocked countries.”

    Interesting isn’t it? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-31/truth-about-russia-elite-doesnt-want-you-know

  46. Cloud9 on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 5:14 am 

    On a lark, I spent a week touring the distilleries in Kentucky and Tennessee. The take away from that trip aside from some rather exquisite bottles of bourbon and whiskey is the knowledge that the used sour mash is very high in protein and is recycled as animal feed making for some pretty happy pigs and cows. The white oak barrels are recycled by brewers and distillers around the world. If the lights went out tomorrow, Kentucky and Tennessee would be sitting on a couple of million barrels of fine sipping whisky. Which incidentally, was one of the first currencies used at the birth of the republic.

  47. Davy on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 6:12 am 

    Cloud, another interest of mine. I have a large bourbon collection that is part of my doom and prep tool chest. I have close to 60 different types of Bourbon now and still collecting. I know if we go into hard times I can always trade a bottle of bourbon for something. I also have a still I can use to make moonshine. I have not had a drink in 10 years because I don’t drink responsibly. If really hard times hit it may be a good way to go. I am thinking I could drink myself to death, LOL. Remember “Leaving Las Vegas”? What a great movie! My wife and I want to make the Bourbon road tour of Kentucky someday but as it is now we are too busy with the farm. I am cutting down on discretionary trips because of climate change. It may not matter anymore how much carbon I generate but I want to be able to tell my kids I practiced some sacrifice in the name of doing something.

  48. shortonoil on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 11:52 am 

    “I want to be able to tell my kids I practiced some sacrifice in the name of doing something. “

    Hate to tell you Davy, but I seriously doubt that they will see draining your liquor cabinet as much of a sacrifice!
    ********************************************************************************
    “Unless central banks can manage to push the price of oil materially higher in the coming quarters, the energy sector is likely to see a sharp equity repricing in the coming months… assuming of course that central banks don’t step in and bid up energy stocks. These days, that is a very foolish assumption. “

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-01/cash-flow-plunging-and-debt-rising-just-how-overpriced-are-energy-companies

    The oil age will end when producers can no longer make money producing oil! That is here now! If producers had to book reserve replacement at present costs they would close their doors, and go home. It is now up to the Central Banks to create the liquidity to keep the industry alive for a little while longer. They have the choice of either keeping the oil industry alive, or the bond market. Wall Street vs. Big Oil.

    How long they can keep this ten pin juggling act going is the only question?

    Chance are we will know sooner than we would like to!

    http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

  49. PracticalMaina on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 8:05 am 

    Who needs 10 tons of batterys when you’ve got 15 second partial charging. Then a few tons will do 🙂

    http://breakingenergy.com/2016/08/01/abb-sells-first-order-for-15-second-bus-charging/

  50. JuanP on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 9:56 am 

    “Crude oil slips below $40”
    https://www.rt.com/business/354281-oil-price-drop-supply/

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