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So, We’re Back To “Peak Oil” Again

Consumption

During a panel discussion in which I participated recently with three energy experts, the moderator asked us if we agreed with the recent projection by British oil giant BP that oil demand may have already peaked during 2019. Everyone on the panel answered with a firm “no.”

From my own perspective, I gave that answer in large part because all of the dozens of previous “peak oil” predictions – whether from the supply side or the more recent demand side reasoning – have turned out to be entirely wrong, often in hilarious fashion. From an historical perspective, it just seems like the safer position to take.

That’s not to downplay the position assumed by BP, whose internal expertise is undeniable. But it’s key to note that much of the media coverage the company’s findings have received portrays BP’s position as being far more absolute than it really is. The company’s position on “peak oil” is in fact highly-qualified.

As a part of its recently-released Global Energy Outlook study, the company ran three scenarios based on differing assumptions regarding how rapidly governments around the world would attempt to move to adopt emissions-reducing policies and subsidize renewables. The cases were labeled “Rapid” (the most aggressive assumptions), “Net-Zero” (assuming most governments would adopt ‘net-zero by 2050’ policies) and “Business as Usual”, in which progression would continue on the slower path seen to date.

In a COVID-19 hampered world in which governments across the globe are teetering on the brink of insolvency, the “Business as Usual” scenario certainly appears to be most likely to persist for the time being, given the multi-trillion dollar costs involved in the other two cases. Under that scenario, BP in fact projects that global demand will not only recover to pre-COVID levels seen late last year, but continue to grow through the year 2030.

Past 2030, BP projects that demand would then begin to slowly decline, but only by 10% by 2050. So, does BP in fact predict that we have reached “peak oil” demand? Not really, no.

But of course, noting all of that doesn’t really make for the sexy headlines that attract clicks on articles.

I’ve written so many pieces debunking various “peak oil” claims over the past 8 years that it’s hard to know what more to say about it now.

There is no question that the oil and gas industry is currently in a depression, the deepest one it has suffered since the mid-1980s. That depression is likely to linger for awhile, especially when one considers that the OPEC+ nations currently have about 8 million barrels of oil per day of spare capacity sitting on the sidelines. That spare capacity, which can be rapidly turned on by national oil companies, will be the first to fill any voids created by recovering demand.

That reality in turn means that the U.S. shale industry is going to be especially hard hit over the next few years as demand slowly recovers. In an excellent op/ed this week, Dan Yergin said that “As a result of a drastic cutback in investment, shale output will go in reverse and decline. When growth returns, it will be at a slower pace.”

Yet, the growth will return because, as Yergin further states, “shale is now established as a formidable resource. The shale revolution has transformed the world oil market and is changing concepts of energy security.”

Supply-side “peak oil” theory was always wrong in the past because its proponents invariably underestimated the enormity of yet-to-be-discovered resource that lay beneath the ground in various parts of the world. In more recent years, Demand-side “peak oil” theory has always managed to overestimate the ability of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles to displace fossil fuels.

BP, in its 2020 Global Energy Outlook, did not really predict that the world has already reached “peak oil” demand. But if the company had in fact done so, it would almost certainly have turned out to be wrong.

Forbes



188 Comments on "So, We’re Back To “Peak Oil” Again"

  1. Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 3:10 am 

    The early making of a presidential candidate-2024 for the Dems:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8779057/Meghan-Markle-Prince-Harry-agreed-star-fly-wall-Netflix-reality-series.html

    “Privacy-obsessed Meghan Markle and Prince Harry ‘have agreed to star in fly-on-the-wall Netflix reality series with cameras following them for three months'”

  2. Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 4:10 am 

    Christian ethnic Armenians and Muslim Azeris are fighting over majority Armenian inhabited land:

    https://www.rt.com/russia/501884-nagorno-karabakh-fighting-continues/

    MULTICULTURALISM WORKS NOWHERE AND IS A CRIMINAL CONCEPT, as Americans are soon going to find out themselves, the hard way, after having promoted the concept world-wide for decades on behalf of their kosher oligarch owners.

    http://www.kevinmacdonald.net/immigration.pdf

  3. Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 4:37 am 

    Nagorno-Karabach is almost an enclave, except for a tiny corridor:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lachin_corridor

    The Germans in 1939 wanted a similar corridor between Germany and East-Prussia, after the Allies had divided the two areas in order to cripple the economic might of Germany, the whole rationale why Britain had buried its 1000-years animosity with France in order to set up an anti-German coalition as of 1904 (Entente Cordiale):

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entente_Cordiale#/media/File:Germany_GB_France.gif

    European politics is very simple and is entirely determined by the alliances of the three major countries, Germany, France and Britain.

    – Germany, deep in its heart wants an alliance with Britain (Kaiser, Hitler, AfD), but is too naive to understand that this is not in the cards. Germans: great engineers, worthless geo-politicians, because, unlike the British and French, they are not cynical, because they only exist for 140 years as a national state, where France is older than 1000 years.
    – France wants Paris-Berlin-Moscow (Gaullism), not in the least to reign in German economic might (and is quietly supported by most of the rest of Europe in that aim, including me)
    – Britain wants to use its island status and since 500 years opts for “splendid isolation” and is only interested in temporary alliances in order to get the strongest state in Europe destroyed. Since 1991 until today that is Germany. And use the US as an ally of last resort (special relationship). Brexit is an expression of that basic attitude.

    If the UK and France are allies, Germany gets destroyed (WW1, WW2).

    If France and Germany are allies (and Britain Brexit-defects on top of that), Britain will get a haircut, certainly if the ally of last resort US is committing suicide (or is being murdered rather). That haircut consists of Scotland and Ulster volunteering to become Britain’s own Eastern Prussia, no need for a war. The fact that capital London is no longer majority British doesn’t strengthen Westminster’s hand either. Brexit is the best argument against referendums. You cannot expect low-IQ commoners from the fish-and-chips shack to see through these geopolitical considerations. West-Minster does. All the commoners do is react to basic sentiments like flag-waving.

    I have never been more upbeat about the prospects for white survival than today in 2020, coming from a deep geopolitical and cultural depression since 2000.

    Nevertheless the battle hasn’t won yet. It is still possible that white America simply rolls over and dies, without a revolt, creating the frightening possibility of a last-minute alliance ZOG-China, directed against PBM, with the white race completely finished off by the Chinese and the kikes and their darkies.

  4. Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 4:39 am 

    1991 should be 1891.

  5. Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 4:53 am 

    Biden’s leftist-globalist media allies in Germany are skeptical about the prospects of a Biden victory:

    https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/us-wahl-2020-hat-joe-biden-die-kraft-donald-trump-zu-schlagen-a-00000000-0002-0001-0000-000173216476

    Harmlos gegen schamlos

    Ist Biden zu schwach, um Trump zu schlagen?

    (“Harmless against shameless

    Is Biden too weak to defeat Trump?”)

    Let’s hope so. With the social order in America irreversibly in a meltdown, it is better to own the presidency and hence the army and wreck the country from within.

    #TrojanHorsePattern

  6. Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 6:12 am 

    Der Spiegel in despair about Biden:

    https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/us-wahl-2020-hat-joe-biden-die-kraft-donald-trump-zu-schlagen-a-00000000-0002-0001-0000-000173216476

    Bidens rechter Zeigefinger schnappt nach oben, er sagt: “Das Coronavirus hat in diesem Jahr, seit dem Ausbruch, mehr als hundert Jahre … also, darum geht … die Leben von … Denkt darüber nach! Mehr Leben in diesem Jahr als in den letzten hundert Jahren.

    “Biden’s right index finger snaps up, he says: “The coronavirus has this year, since the outbreak … more than 100 years… well, that’s what … the lives of … Think about it! More lives in this one Year than in the last hundred years”

    And this guy should control the 2nd nuclear force in this world?!

    Der Spiegel fears Biden will be turned into minced meat tomorrow and I feel their pain.

    And then what? Camel Harris taking over at the last minute?

  7. bochen787 on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 6:44 am 

    Abraham van Helsing, white race being finished off is not a bad thing in my view

  8. Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 7:29 am 

    “Abraham van Helsing, white race being finished off is not a bad thing in my view”

    Of course not. Chinese are solid racists, like everybody else. Except brainwashed white Americans, who for a moment thought that 180 million aging US whites, led by the nose by 7 million or so US Jews and hen-pecked by 150 million people-of-color, could own the entire world, with the Jews doing the owning part and the whites playing the role of bone-fetchers, a bit like what a dog does for his bossie. Brexit essentially was a vote to support that idea, and now the English maneuvered themselves in a losing coalition, but I digress.

    Turns out that 640 million continental Europeans and 1350 million Chinese could be a bridge too far for our Anglo friends, not to mention 1500 million Muslims (something China can’t ignore nor does)

    https://parisberlinmoscow.files.wordpress.com/2020/08/turk-caliphate.jpg

  9. zero juan on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 7:42 am 

    weirdo juan’s chinese personality:

    bochen787 on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 6:44 am

  10. Crazy clown at the end of your street! on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 9:19 am 

    What is that Abraham guy crapping on about ? Does anyone else here think he’s a nut job?

  11. Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 9:23 am 

    “Whoever wins in November, here’s six reasons why America is on the brink of a complete political and social breakdown”

    https://www.rt.com/op-ed/501920-winner-november-america-breakdown/

    OK, it is RT saying this, via an Australian hired gun.

  12. Superstard Muzzie lover TARD on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 9:26 am 

    There are farts and then there are sharts! The latter is a grim and dark place beyond the horrors of the dark realms!

  13. hair plugs in search of a brain on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 9:29 am 

    If the KFC stops in America the bullets will fly. Then the zombies will appear and Enron makes a comeback.
    I know this as I have a crystal ball and a good imagination.

  14. Davy on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 9:31 am 

    You are obviously a complete test!
    Shut the fuck up!
    Shut the fuck up!
    Tell the voices to go away ! No not the padded room again mummy noooo!

  15. Elon Musk's love child on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 9:32 am 

    You are obviously a complete test*
    The government is changing my words with spell check!
    Proof big brother is out to get us!
    Proof!

  16. Board moderator on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 9:33 am 

    Test = twat

  17. Lord Voldemort of Chaz on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 9:34 am 

    Board moderator = cunt face

  18. zero davy on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 10:20 am 

    weirdo davys poodle personality:

    zero juan on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 7:42 am

  19. zero juan on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 11:50 am 

    Weirdo juan is manic this morning:

    zero davy said weirdo davys poodle personality: zero juan on Mon,…

    muzz love is highest love On This Day… Sep 28, 2005: West Darfur, Sudan The Arab Islamic Republic of Sudan massacres African villagers: 32 Killed said harvesting soon?

    Face Diaper Market Expected to Reach $2,455.4 Million by 2027 said my guess muzz head diaper market will be increasin…

    Lord Voldemort of Chaz said Board moderator = cunt face

    Board moderator said Test = twat

    Elon Musk’s love child said You are obviously a complete test* The government…

    Davy said You are obviously a complete test! Shut the fuck u…

    hair plugs in search of a brain said If the KFC stops in America the bullets will fly….

    Superstard Muzzie lover TARD said There are farts and then there are sharts! The la…

    dont forget fight (((supertards))) until he hides behind the rock said then the rock speaks but it’s ok for (((supe…

    Crazy clown at the end of your street! said What is that Abraham guy crapping on about ? Does…

    Odense Mayor: ‘We will send a clear societal signal to imams who practise Sharia that it is punishable in Denmark’ said in spite of supertard bochen777 supression of the…

  20. zero davy on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 12:11 pm 

    Weirdo davy is more manic than usual this morning:

    zero davy said weirdo davys poodle personality: zero juan on Mon,…

    muzz love is highest love On This Day… Sep 28, 2005: West Darfur, Sudan The Arab Islamic Republic of Sudan massacres African villagers: 32 Killed said harvesting soon?

    Face Diaper Market Expected to Reach $2,455.4 Million by 2027 said my guess muzz head diaper market will be increasin…

    Lord Voldemort of Chaz said Board moderator = cunt face

    Board moderator said Test = twat

    Elon Musk’s love child said You are obviously a complete test* The government…

    Davy said You are obviously a complete test! Shut the fuck u…

    hair plugs in search of a brain said If the KFC stops in America the bullets will fly….

    Superstard Muzzie lover TARD said There are farts and then there are sharts! The la…

    dont forget fight (((supertards))) until he hides behind the rock said then the rock speaks but it’s ok for (((supe…
    Crazy clown at the end of your street! said What is that Abraham guy crapping on about ? Does…

    Odense Mayor: ‘We will send a clear societal signal to imams who practise Sharia that it is punishable in Denmark’ said in spite of supertard bochen777 supression of the…

  21. why is the undercover muzz Valentina Azarova doing at a western univ on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 2:58 pm 

    today’s uni is a haven of convict-19 admitting dropout-19 as if academic is a wh1rehouse

    then we have this muzzie in the mix

    supertard hughe fritzgerald will explain

  22. dont forget fight (((supertards))) until he hides behind the rock said then the rock speaks but it’s ok for (((supertards))) to hide behind the guarda tree on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 3:03 pm 

    because it is his tree.

    ahnyone with half a brain cell can sarch for this

    Sahih Muslim, Book 41, Number 6981

  23. Orban: ‘By 2050, 20 per cent of Europe would be muzz. Central European countries have chosen a different future.’ on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 3:04 pm 

    why do people enjoy tasty muzz coq

  24. Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 3:33 pm 

    “Orban: ‘By 2050, 20 per cent of Europe would be muzz.”

    If nothing changes, indeed. But we’ll be living in a very different world after the coming elections.

    Meanwhile in America:

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2018/05/21/european-america-is-over/

    Paultard should worry about his own America, that is demographically in far worse shape than Europe. Go to Youtube for the reality in present day America:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8V_K_9AygU

  25. Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 3:48 pm 

    Pictures from yesterday:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdZW43NiL7I

    America is now in the early stages of a neo-Bolshevik revolution, and in a similar state as was Russia in the run-up to 1917. Europe is going to support the whites, China BLM. And the mob is again led by The Tribe.

    https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/voa-news-china/china-embraces-blm-america-objects-blm-discussion-home

    “China Embraces BLM in America, Objects to BLM Discussion at Home”

    If the left wins, Anglos will be the new Soviets, as Orwell predicted (map at the bottom). If the US whites manage to escape from Washington, libtards and darkies, the map at the top will be the new world:

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/26/which-future-world/

  26. muzz ck is whitey supertards sacred cow an exlixir remember white sharia on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 3:58 pm 

    ?

    they say (((supremetard))) is jewish

    suposedly there are no good (((supertards)))

  27. Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 4:03 pm 

    For the first time in 175 years Scientific American backs a candidate, that is Biden and BLM:

    https://www.unz.com/jderbyshire/they-might-as-well-put-bones-through-their-noses-the-corruption-of-scientific-america/

    “”They Might As Well Put Bones Through Their Noses”— the Corruption of Scientific American”

  28. Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 4:16 pm 

    More defeatism from Bill Maher:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWMmRmEpUmE

    Keep it coming, Bill!

  29. For the first time in 175 years Scientific American backs a candidate, that is Biden and BLM on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 4:34 pm 

    allahscience has no causality
    ever since muzz like akbar sayeed who used low english on whitey supertard john brady causing him to suicide we no longer have science-19

    sience-19 now admits dropout-19

    i will shred my BA tomorrow, i don’t want to belong to a who1rehouse called science-19 that causes small biz to fail across america and spread suffering

  30. causing suffering mandate face diaper and loving muzz coq is what science-19 is doing today on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 4:36 pm 

    and admitting dropout-19

    i hope 1776 happen again and we harvest all our muzz

  31. I AM THE MOB on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 4:58 pm 

    The great harvesting is coming!

    If China passes the US. Mother Russia will be next. Putin knows this.

    Knock em down and the US will reign supreme for the next 100 years!

    USA USA USA!

  32. makati1 on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 6:14 pm 

    MOB, the US is dead in all but name. Be patient. This is China’s century. Russia and China will divide the world over the next decade. Russia has the resources. China has the tech and people. The rest of the world is moving away from Amerika’s lies and hypocrisy.

    The West is going down. The US, UK, Australia, and New Zealand are all committing suicide. Likewise, The ass kissers, Israel, Japan, South Korea, etc. will soon follow if they don’t change course.

    Interesting to watch from the far shores of the Philippines. The prez here knows that it is better to be China’s friend than be a friend of the US. Even Russian navy ships stop here now that the US is gone and Duterte has met with Putin in Russia and Xi in China but not the Amerikan bully, Trump.

  33. Shehroze Chaudhry, a 25-year-old from Burlington, Ontario, claimed he traveled to Syria in 2016. His story was turned into a New York Times podcast, Caliphate, which was nominated for a Pulitzer Prize and won a Peabody Award on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 6:50 pm 

    muzz are all over the place
    but one need a special glass to see
    and has not drink muzz milk in the last 1 year

  34. Armenia, Azerbaijan Clash in Separatist Region for a 2nd Day on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 6:56 pm 

    guess who uncle sam gona bomb
    armenia of course

    azer is muzz

  35. I AM THE MOB on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 8:37 pm 

    CYBER ATTACK HITTING USA! LARGEST IN HISTORY!

    ITS GOING DOWN!!!

    MAN THE BATTLE SHIPS!

    Cyberattack could trigger Article 5 response, NATO deputy secretary warns

    https://www.upi.com/Defense-News/2020/09/28/Cyberattack-could-trigger-Article-5-response-NATO-deputy-secretary-warns/9741601318459/

    HIT EM HARD! KNOCK CHINA OFF THE MAP!

  36. pat on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 9:28 pm 

    The depletion is killingbthe world oil supply, giant oil fields which supply almost 1/3rd of all oil is dead. The OIL age is dead, the collapse has only avoided the oil shortages. The easy cheap conventional oil is dead now what you see is highly expensive hard to get oil which possible due to high prices. The workd oil to see new highs of 150 and hit 250, 300.

  37. bochen787 on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 9:39 pm 

    CHINA FOREVER

  38. Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 28th Sep 2020 11:58 pm 

    “The great harvesting is coming!“

    Absolutely mobbie!

    And it is you who is going to be harvested, by China, by BLM… and most of all by Europe.

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