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Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020

Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 thumbnail

Fig 1: Asian oil consumption is around 5 times higher than production

The production decline after the peak in 2015 is very modest. The size of the gap between consumption and production is mainly determined by consumption growth rather than by production decline. Will the Corona virus stop the gap growing?
Let’s have a look at which Asian countries consumed how much oil over the years

Fig 2: Asian oil consumption by country

Total Asia-Pacific oil consumption grew from 26.2 mb/d in 2009 to 36.2 mb/d in 2019 or by 10 mb/d This is net growth consisting of 11.6 mb/d gross growth (out of which 5.8 mb/d in China and 2 mb/d in India) and 1.6 mb/d gross decline (600 kb/d in Japan).

Fig 3: Subgroup with different trends

The subgroup in Fig 3 grew oil consumption at 330 kb/d pa after 2009 until 2017. Then countries above the dotted line (7.2 mb/d in 2019) peaked while the other countries below the dotted line (5.8 mb/d in 2019) continued to grow at 160 kb/d. The net effect was a flat oil consumption for 3 years.

Fig 4: Asia Pacific consumption by fuel

We see how important Diesel is. Fuel oil use is much lower than before the 2nd oil crisis in 1979. Naphta and other fuels are mainly used in the chemical industry.

Asian oil consumption growth is dominated by China and India.

Fig 5: Peak oil in China

Fig 6: China fuel consumption by type

While recent consumption curves in the above graphs look quite smooth, annual changes reveal a more complex picture with varying growth and even decline rates over time and in different countries.

Fig 7: Asian oil consumption growth and decline (gross)

In the last 5 years gross growth came down from 1.6 mb/d to 950 kb/d, dominated by China and India.

China’s oil consumption grew by a whopping 1.1 mb/d in 2010 as a result of a 2009/10 stimulus package amounting to almost 6% of GDP (estimated at RMB 2 Tr). https://treasury.gov.au/publication/chinese-macroeconomic-management-through-the-crisis-and-beyond/2011-01-chinese-macroeconomic-management-through-the-crisis-and-beyond/4-chinas-stimulus-package

But there were years in which China’s oil consumption grew by only 300 kb/d. Given that oil consumption is an indicator for economic activity, let’s see whether this is reflected in China’s official GDP data:

Fig 8: China’s real GDP growth as quoted by the IMF

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2019/08/08/Peoples-Republic-of-China-2019-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-Staff-48576

The discrepancy between changing annual oil consumption growth (Fig 7) and a very smooth GDP growth curve (Fig 8) is only too apparent. We know that China’s GDP data are targets.

China scraps annual economic growth target for first time
22 May 2020
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52765958
Now the Corona virus has reset everything.

To be continued.

crudeoilpeak



8 Comments on "Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020"

  1. Abraham van Helsing on Wed, 15th Jul 2020 3:53 pm 

    The German government has presented today its concept for future green steel production, based entirely on hydrogen:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2020/07/15/germany-presents-action-concept-hydrogen-steel/

    Germany has the ambition to become the global leader in all things hydrogen: electrolysis, steel production, engines, fuel cells, you name it. Not so much to produce hydrogen itself, but to sell equipment on world markets.

    Investment volume until 2050: 30 billion euro.

  2. Annunaki on Fri, 17th Jul 2020 1:41 am 

    Soon Annunaki will move the Lacher See volcano to destroy the European Assyria.

    As always, overconfident Germans created Naturschutzgebiet (protected area of Nature) there instead of draining the lake!

    When the volcano finally wakes up, the power of hydrogen will be demonstrated to Germans through an explosion destroying Germany (and former countries of Holy German Empire like Netherlands)!

  3. zero juan on Fri, 17th Jul 2020 4:21 am 

    The ugly mind of a lunatic:

    Annunaki said Soon Annunaki will move the Lacher See volcano to…

    ANAL REAPER said Trump set to lose reelection bid by huge margins:…

    ANAL REAPER said The world is also going to need less faggots and l…

    claes said Mak, The fine thing about peakoil is that somebody…

    claes said Davy. Grow up. Loser.

    jef said Claes, where ae you from friend?

    claes said Thanks Mak

    jef said What they don’t show is that under the table…

    claes said Duncan, In older times the church were after the s…

    claes said Theese are the final remarks of the article: ̶…

    SocialRevolutionComing said This whole world has turned into some kind of thea…

    claes said Pink poodle, I’m looking forward to your nex…

  4. JuanP on Fri, 17th Jul 2020 4:37 am 

    I will not be commenting today because my chronic depression flared up last night. I am in the fetal position this morning. This means my latest socks FamousDrScanlon, SocialRevolutionComing, Claes, ANAL REAPER, jef, and Annunaki will not be played with today either.

  5. Annunaki on Fri, 17th Jul 2020 8:54 am 

    Slave JuanP

    Good news: soon a great cataclysm will come and kill you, per favore, without your participation. Rest, finally!

    Just stay few months ago and all will be over.

    JuanP, you are out of order, unrepairable slave….disgusting, sneaky, cheeky slave.

  6. Annunaki on Fri, 17th Jul 2020 8:55 am 

    slave, just stay few months more, slave

  7. zero juan on Fri, 17th Jul 2020 9:18 am 

    Annunaki said slave, just stay few months more, slave

    Annunaki said Slave JuanP Good news: soon a great cataclysm will…

  8. RPG on Fri, 17th Jul 2020 3:37 pm 

    The Western nations should merge their law enforcement agencies, intelligence agencies with their military for national security as well as law and order.

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