Energy demand will plateau after 2030, according to a new DNV GL (stand 5B51) model which forecasts the pace and extent of the global energy transition until 2050.
While fossil fuel will still provide more than 40% Peak of the world energy demand, the consequences of the decarbonization of the energy mix and of the flattening out of energy demand are substantial, it says.
DNV GL’s new Energy Transition Outlook forecasts peak global demand for oil in 2022, and peak gas in 2035, the same year in which total global energy demand is predicted to reach its highest point before flattening, thanks to step-changes in energy efficiency.
Although the oil and gas industry is predicted to continue to be an important contributor to the energy transition, there needs to be development towards enhanced efficiency with reduced costs, wastage, and use of resources in all elements, says DNV GL. “Increased recovery rates and remote or autonomous operations are key for the oil and gas sector. To achieve this, there is a need for continued innovation, simplification and standardization of technical systems, operational models and contracting strategies,” Tørstad added.
Fossil fuels will account for 44% of world energy supply in 2050, compared with 53% today, according to the report, with demand coming from power production; heavy road transportation, aviation and shipping; and direct use in buildings and manufacturing.
Gas is expected to become the largest carrier of energy towards 2050. As the cleanest of the fossil fuels, gas could substitute oil in transportation and coal in power production, and to work together with renewable energy to create effective energy systems, says DNV GL. “Shorter term, we expect gas power generation to grow significantly, with the 25% increase in production the next 10 years to replace coal,” says the group. “Longer term, we see gas growing significantly in volume as transportation fuel, and we expect 30% of shipping fuel in 2050 to be LNG. Gas will also play an increasingly important role in heavy road transport: 7% in 2050.”
Dialogue and collaboration between industry, policy makers and regulators, as well as across the energy industry and between countries and regions will be needed as part of the transition, says the group.
Apneaman on Tue, 5th Sep 2017 4:40 pm
Surplus Energy Economics
How the economy REALLY works – Tim Morgan
#104. Why Mr Trump can’t raise American prosperity
“It concludes that American prosperity is in decline, and has been falling ever since it ‘peaked’ way back in 1999. This doesn’t make America unique – prosperity has long been falling across much of the developed West. But it does mean that the central economic task of President Trump, which is to make the average American more prosperous, simply is not possible.
Two main factors are driving the deterioration in prosperity. First, the underlying economy has been deteriorating, a trend disguised by the spending of borrowed money.
Second, in America as elsewhere, the trend cost of energy continues to increase markedly, even while market prices are trapped in a cyclical low. This cost acts as an “economic rent”, and translates into individual experience primarily through the cost of essentials, which are energy-intensive.
Essentially, two things are happening to the average American. First, his or her income is rising less rapidly than the cost of essentials, squeezing the “discretionary” income which is the real definition of prosperity. Second, increases in income are being far exceeded by increases in debt, and also by growing shortfalls in pension provision. So the citizen feels both less prosperous and less secure.”
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2017/09/05/104-why-mr-trump-cant-raise-american-prosperity/
Jerome Purtzer on Tue, 5th Sep 2017 5:10 pm
This story reminds me of the invention by Temple Grandin-the stairway to heaven, where the cattle walk up a pathway and then are embraced before having a metal rod plowed into their brain. This narrative is the calm before the storm/end.
dave thompson on Tue, 5th Sep 2017 6:10 pm
Great post Apneaeman, the sooner the people get it the better, however I doubt the people ever will get it.
Cloggie on Tue, 5th Sep 2017 6:29 pm
Two main factors are driving the deterioration in prosperity. First, the underlying economy has been deteriorating, a trend disguised by the spending of borrowed money.
Second, in America as elsewhere, the trend cost of energy continues to increase markedly, even while market prices are trapped in a cyclical low. This cost acts as an “economic rent”, and translates into individual experience primarily through the cost of essentials, which are energy-intensive.
Complete BS. Deterioration in prosperity is caused by the transformation of America into a third world country with corresponding standards and prosperity.
It is not rocket science.
dave thompson on Tue, 5th Sep 2017 7:37 pm
Did you bother to read the entire article Cloggie? Just wondering.
Go Speed Racer on Tue, 5th Sep 2017 7:44 pm
Gotta love how they add that 3rd word,
“Peak Oil Demand”.
Why can’t they just say “Peak Oil”.
What a fraud spin, the reference standard
books on Peak Oil, such as “Long Emergency”
did not predict that sneaky 3rd word
added in to confuse the steeple and
make them think they don’t want oil
anymore, as the well runs dry.
I think every time we see those 3 words,
just remove that 3rd word and stick
with “peak oil”.
Anonymouse1 on Tue, 5th Sep 2017 10:38 pm
Like all shills, cloggen-fraud seldom, if ever, reads his own purported ‘sources, so I wouldn’t him to expend any actual effort reading anyone else’s either, no matter the quality, or relevance.
Cloggie on Wed, 6th Sep 2017 2:26 am
I think every time we see those 3 words,
just remove that 3rd word and stick
with “peak oil”.
Come on, GSR, don’t tell me that you do not know the difference between a world running out of oil and industrial civilization collapsing (“peak oil supply” or “peak oil Heinberg”) and a world that no longer needs oil because they are switching to renewable energy (“peak oil demand” or “peak oil Goldman-Sachs”).