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Page added on February 16, 2019

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Oil Will Continue to Play Significant Role


Although the precise outlook is uncertain, the world looks set to consume significant amounts of oil for several decades.

That’s according to BP’s latest Energy Outlook, launched in London on Thursday, which considers a range of scenarios.

All the scenarios in BP’s 2019 outlook suggest that oil will continue to play a significant role in the global energy system in 2040, with the level of oil demand in 2040 ranging from around 80 million barrels per day (MMbpd) to 130 MMbpd.

“Significant levels of investment are required for there to be sufficient supplies of oil to meet demand in 2040,” BP’s Energy Outlook report states.

“If future investment was limited to developing existing fields and there was no investment in new production areas, global production would decline at an average rate of around 4.5 percent per annum (based on IEA’s estimates), implying global oil supply would be only around 35 MMbpd in 2040,” the report added.

“Closing the gap between this supply profile and any of the demand scenarios in the outlook would require many trillions of dollars of investment over the next 20 years,” the report continued.

The Energy Outlook explores the forces shaping the global energy transition out to 2040 and the key uncertainties surrounding that transition, according to BP.

The company says it considers the scenarios in the outlook, together with a range of other analysis and information, when forming its long-term strategy.


9 Comments on "Oil Will Continue to Play Significant Role"

  1. Cloggie on Sat, 16th Feb 2019 9:40 am 

    “Significant levels of investment are required for there to be sufficient supplies of oil to meet demand in 2040,” BP’s Energy Outlook report states.

    …further driving up the price of fossil fuel, increasing the drive for transition towards cheaper renewables.

    MarineTraffic emails from the last few days:

    Seajack ships operating on offshore wind projects for Holland and Britain. Every ship contains 4-6 large monopiles for windturbines up to 8 MW. A single monopile is rammed into the sea floor within 24 hours.

    I have hundreds of those mails.

    Projects are done by Dutch, Germans, Danes and Norwegians. One wonders what the effect of Brexit will be on offshore development.

    “UK waits to see how the post-Brexit winds will blow”

  2. Davy on Sat, 16th Feb 2019 2:38 pm 

    “Renewable Energy Project In Oregon Will Combine Wind, Solar, & Storage”

    “A consortium composed of Portland General Electric and NextEra Energy will construct and operate a new renewable energy facility in eastern Oregon. Dubbed the Wheatland Renewable Energy Facility, it will feature 120 wind turbines capable of producing 300 megawatts of electricity in addition to 50 megawatts of solar power. What is unique about Wheatland is that in addition to co-locating wind and solar at the same site, it will also feature 30 megawatts of battery storage onsite as well.”

  3. makati1 on Sat, 16th Feb 2019 4:26 pm 

    Oil will be burned until it isn’t. Renewable energy will be pushed by the minority until it isn’t. Climate will change longer than humans will be here to report on it, because it is changing, denial not withstanding.

    We live in “interesting” times, unfortunately. Those being born today could be in at the end of the human story. Such is luck.

  4. Pete Bauer on Sat, 16th Feb 2019 8:05 pm 

    Its true, but the share of oil is also dropping.

    Refineries use natural gas as diluent to blend the heavy crudes and produce transport fuels. And bp shows this natgas as oil which is false. Excluding this type of natgas and biofuels used, the oil consumption is nearly flat.

    And last year chinese sales of gas and diesel vehicles declined while plugin vehicles increased.

    So what happens to transport sector is big question.

  5. makati1 on Sat, 16th Feb 2019 10:04 pm 

    Pete, I think the trucking industry will continue to use diesel at any cost. The cost of the stuff they haul and you buy will go up, but diesel is the only thing that will truck 40 tons 800 miles on one tank of fuel.

    Until the techies can come up with a battery the size and weight of a diesel fuel tank with the same mileage nonstop, it ain’t agonna happen.

    BTW: There would be about 3 million trucks that would need to be replaced in the US alone. About $600B to $1T in all. NOT going to happen.

  6. Sunspot on Sun, 17th Feb 2019 9:01 am 

    People love to point out how much oil has been replaced by all the windmills and solar panels we have put up in the past 20 years or so.
    We are using almost 100 million barrels of oil a day worldwide. A record. All those solar panels and windmills have not replaced ONE SINGLE BARREL OF OIL. We just use all the energy we can get our hands on, regardless of where it comes from. When worldwide use of fossil fuels actually begins dropping – and not just because of some economic or political reason – THEN you can tell me about the wonders of renewable energy. Until then – it’s just a bad joke.

  7. Dredd on Sun, 17th Feb 2019 9:14 am 

    “Oil Will Continue to Play Significant Role” in destroying the sea ports of current civilization (Countries With Sea Level Change – 2).

  8. Robert Inget on Mon, 18th Feb 2019 12:47 pm 

    Speaking of The War on Trade;

    Short Term, positive… scary Long Term.

    “China’s borrowing for January was insane. The numbers because they are so large it is meaningless. if the January pace is kept up China is already throwing the whole kitchen at the economy. It borrowed FIVE PERCENT OF GDP IN ONE MONTH. That’s peak-WW2 level of borrowing” – Rabo

    IMO Both sides have way too much to lose.
    There Will Be Agreements.
    The simplest reason, China Has No Oil of its Own.
    (China built 18 million ICE powered vehicles in 2018)

    Advice to investors. As soon as you see oil becoming unaffordable to low wage workers,(everyone), go to cash or if you are truly long term, own only the largest commodity companies.
    (energy, fertilizers, water)

  9. Robert Inget on Thu, 21st Feb 2019 1:08 pm 

    Where did we get our oil ?

    Giovanni Staunovo

    Follow Follow @staunovo
    US crude imports by Country of Origin in bpd
    Canada +98k to 3.288m
    Saudi Arabia +179k to 594k
    Venezuela +441k to 558k
    Mexcio +382k to 911k
    Iraq +439k to 845k
    Colombia +264k to 388k
    Nigeria unchanged at 0k
    Ecuador -20k to 99k
    Brazil unchanged at 68k
    Kuwait +138k to 138k

    Strike Venezuela & perhaps Ecuador and what da ya get? (next Wednesday)

    According ti the EIA here’s how imports stacked
    last week.

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