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Oil prices could hit $200/b without new investments in upstream sector


Global oil prices could soar to $200/b if no new investments are made in the oil and gas sector in the short-term, Oman’s energy and minerals minister said Sept. 9, in reply to the International Energy Agency’s assessment for reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.

The IEA said in a May 18 report that, under an energy scenario needed to put the world on a path to net-zero emissions by 2050, there should be no new oil and gas developments and that global oil demand would collapse by 75%.
“Recommending that we should no longer invest in new oil…. I think that’s extremely dangerous,” Mohammed al-Rumhy said at a ministerial dialogue on clean energy transitions in the Middle East and North Africa region organized by the IEA.

“My biggest fear, if we stop investing in the fossil fuel industry abruptly, is there will be energy starvation and the price of energy will just shoot [up]. The demand for oil and gas may go down but in the short-term we could see $100/b or $200/b scenario, which although it sounds very attractive today [to producers], it’s something that I think many of us, if not all of us, would not like to see happening in the market.”

Oman, the biggest Middle Eastern oil producer outside OPEC, is a member of the broader 23-member OPEC+ coalition, which collectively controls about half of the world’s oil production capacity and is currently tapering its output restraint agreement to balance the oil markets amid the pandemic.

Race against time
The race to net-zero emissions is a race against time, IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol told the ministerial dialogue.

“It’s an interesting race. Unless everybody finishes the race, nobody wins the race,” Birol said.

“Today 70% of the global GDP of the countries around the world committed themselves to net-zero [by] 2050. The largest consumers are taking these steps and this will have implications for oil demand and therefore for the investments.”

The IEA outlined its first roadmap for how the global energy sector can achieve net-zero emissions in the landmark May 18 report, seeing global oil supplies needing to shrink more than 8% annually. Under this scenario, oil demand would never regain its pre-pandemic peak in 2019, shrinking to just 24 million b/d in 2050.

The IEA’s advocacy for net-zero emissions was challenged by OPEC, which warned the report could increase oil market volatility and jeopardize needed investment in fossil fuels, the group said in an internal report to its members seen by S&P Global Platts on May 20.

OPEC’s most recent long-term oil market forecast, issued in October, projects global demand to rise from pre-pandemic levels of about 100 million b/d to peak at 109.3 million b/d around 2040, before declining to 109.1 million b/d in 2045 and plateauing “over a relatively long period.”

Least carbon intensive
Demand for oil and gas will be sustained for decades, Sultan al-Jaber, the UAE’s minister of industry and advanced technology and CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., told the ministerial dialogue. The UAE is OPEC’s third biggest producer.

“This region’s oil reserves represent the vast majority of the least carbon-intensive barrels available anywhere in the world,” Jaber said.

“Even in the most ambitious energy transition scenario, oil and gas will still be needed for many decades to come.”

Iraq, OPEC’s second biggest producer, is working on a strategy to study the impact of energy transition on its economy and its oil industry, the country’s deputy prime minister and finance minister Ali Allawi said at the ministerial dialogue.

“If we have not taken the right precautionary steps and the right moves to broaden and deepen our economies, then I think oil producing countries with large populations and limited financial reserves will face very serious consequences,” Allawi said.

“Many of the oil producers do have financial buffers that will allow them to extend the transition phase, countries like Iraq may not have that option. That’s why to us it is really an existential issue in the next five years.”


16 Comments on "Oil prices could hit $200/b without new investments in upstream sector"

  1. jef on Sat, 11th Sep 2021 9:02 am 

    Investments in upstream sector will not happen without Oil prices hitting $200/b.

    There fixed it for ya.

  2. Theedrich on Sat, 11th Sep 2021 9:54 am 

    America wants more mulattoes and mongrels. So the Yidbox media display young, good-looking Germanic or Celtic women smiling longingly at jungle creatures from the ghetto with what looks like fecal sausages coming out of their heads.  Or they dress up an Afroid primate in a three-piece suit and teach him to play the role of a business leader, with autistic Whites around a conference table listening in rapt awe as he excretes the appropriate verbiage.  Et cetera.

    The scourings of the world’s outhouses and bedpans are dumped into the U.S. through the southwestern border and other points of entry, courtesy of the Leftist elites in charge of our pseudo-democracy, paid for by modern Croesuses who fancy themselves as gods.  The subhuman DeepStaters are obsessed with murdering the White race, and the nation is filled with genosuicidal White YidChrister robots who want to help them achieve that goal.  Hence the traitorous sludge of the Democratic Party is able to pervert the electoral system to achieve a “legal” coup d’état and install Bolshevik, halfbreed maggots in positions of power to complete the extinction of the White man and his civilization.  Klaus Schwab, Georg Sörös, Bill Gates and company are overjoyed.  The mindless military-industrial complex sees it all as an opportunity to slaughter every last sentient creature on the planet.  And whatever the propaganda media slurp up out of the governmental latrines, they vomit through the nightly “news.”

    We are led by a brood of vipers.

  3. Duncan Idaho on Sat, 11th Sep 2021 10:04 am 

    “A shorter answer is that there’s no cure for stupidity.

    I run into people every single day who believe absolutely outlandish bullshit about anything and everything more complicated than drinking beer and watching football on tv.

    There’s a Republican/ trump / anti liberal/ anti Democrat cult alive and well in this country, and it numbers upwards of a hundred million people, maybe more.”

  4. Biden’s hairplug on Sat, 11th Sep 2021 3:42 pm 

    “There’s a Republican/ trump / anti liberal/ anti Democrat cult alive and well in this country, and it numbers upwards of a hundred million people, maybe more.”“

    Soon you could be looking into the barrel of their guns.

  5. Cloggie on Sun, 12th Sep 2021 4:20 am 

    America building its first offshore wind port…

    …so Danish Orsted can roll out a giant wind farm.


    European renewable companies are taking the US market by storm:

    Orsted, Vestas, Iberdrola, Enel, van Oord, RWE, Siemens-Gamesa, etc., etc.

    Lesson from history: energy always precedes geopolitics.

  6. Antius on Sun, 12th Sep 2021 12:27 pm 

    Lesson 1 from history: Failure to understand the energy basis of the economy and plan appropriately, leads to civilisation collapse.

    Lesson 2 from (European) history: Those who attempt (or are forced) to run their countries on Low EROI energy, end up being controlled or conquered by nations with high EROI energy.

    In 1944, it was US oil (and Germany’s lack thereof) that propelled America to victory and resulted in the US and Russia completely controlling Germany for the next fifty years. This time round, it will be Russian gas and Russian nuclear power (and European paucity in these energy sources), that will likewise turn Europe into a Russian puppet.

  7. Hello on Sun, 12th Sep 2021 2:13 pm 

    >> turn Europe into a Russian puppet.

    I hope you’re right. Maybe that’s what it’s needed for europe to be saved. The liberal western bullshit did enough damage to my beloved land already. Enough of it.

    Niggers, ragheads and slit-eyes back to their shit holes. Or to the US. The US seems to enjoy sucking nigger dick.

    BTW, Clog, ain’t SPD leading? Could the stupidity of the germans really be that big that they keep voting for their own demise?

  8. Biden’s hairplug on Sun, 12th Sep 2021 2:53 pm 

    “I hope you’re right. Maybe that’s what it’s needed for europe to be saved. The liberal western bullshit did enough damage to my beloved land already. Enough of it.

    Niggers, ragheads and slit-eyes back to their shit holes. Or to the US. The US seems to enjoy sucking nigger dick.“

    Respekt, Hello, you are making definately geopolitical progress in understanding that salvation comes from the East, not the West.

    “BTW, Clog, ain’t SPD leading? Could the stupidity of the germans really be that big that they keep voting for their own demise?“

    I have some hope that the same scenario as in Sachsen-Anhalt will happen again and that die Union will again do much better than in the polls.

    But the real breakthrough could come from France in the person of Michel Barnier, who wants to halt all foreign (non-white) immigration and even wants to silence EU human rights courts (basically the long arm of George Soros). France, not Germany, could pave the way to real change in Europe.

    The British left fears the rise of EU white nationalism. THEY SHOULD FEAR IT:

    “Europe’s reputation as a cosmopolitan haven has been exposed as a mirage“

    I’m watching “with one eye” the “Triell” on German television. Laschet has reiterated that the EU needs to become geopolitical autonomous.

    Patience, my Swiss friend, the situation is in reality far better than you fear it is. Everything is moving in the right (eastern) direction.

  9. FamousDrScanlon on Sun, 12th Sep 2021 11:43 pm 

    The Taliban = #1 soliders in world. Taliban = #1

  10. FamousDrScanlon on Sun, 12th Sep 2021 11:47 pm 

    Taliban Taliban they’re my clan
    If Bin Laden can’t do it
    No one can

    goooooooo ragheads!

  11. FamousDrScanlon on Sun, 12th Sep 2021 11:51 pm 

    Please donate to the IED scholarship fund & help send a young Muzzi to terror school

  12. Cloggie on Mon, 13th Sep 2021 2:17 pm 

    E-highways coming closer in Germany:

    – one million euro per km
    – 10,000 euro per e-truck

    Big advantage: boils down to building a new electric grid “by stealth”, without NIMBYs able to block it, a big problem in Germany. Use the autobahn to distribute electricity all over Germany. Build new power lines in the median strip for that purpose.

    Germany has 13,200 km autobahn. Cost electrification: 13 billion. GDP Germany 4320 billion in 2021.

    Upshot: trucks only need batteries to bridge, say 50 km.

  13. Freyr energy on Tue, 14th Sep 2021 2:24 am 

    We are empaneled in several states, and can offer subsidies that reduce upfront cost of a system by 20-40%. To improve affordability for our residential customers further, we have introduced solar loans. Financing the purchase of your solar system through our lending partners means fast approvals and higher savings.


  14. Cloggie on Wed, 15th Sep 2021 12:51 pm 

    Do I have a treat for you, my holiday pictures!

  15. TotallyNormal on Wed, 15th Sep 2021 3:40 pm 

    I have a tree with multiples trunks to cut because it is dying. The tree is really dry. Everything is dying, trees, insects, humans, wildlife. This is a dead holographic reality that won’t be able to support any kind of life very soon.

    So I usually cut two trunks per week. So I see some my neighbor taking walk with their eyes closed and fuck up hands. More and more people in my neighborhood are now walking with closed eyes, long neck and long chin. Really normal for me that know nothing else that this prison. The last phrase is a sarcasm.

    I obviously am prisoner here, otherwise there will be other humans like me. I am seeking vengeance now. My fucking life is over. I am tool old to start a new life.
    It is still amazing that I am the only human.

  16. WomenAreStupidPieceOfShit on Thu, 16th Sep 2021 11:29 am 

    I dislike women. I think they are all stupid useless pieces of shit. They are basically mentally retarded. This is why they obey leadership so easily because they cannot survive on their own: no muscle mass and no logical analysis skills. This is why women and feminine man have no moral compass, they must be able to manipulate other people to survive. So you have to be a amoral being to do that.

    Imagine a civilization mainly made of feminine man, that think like women and act like women. Imagine a civilization where theses feminine man and women are the majority in important position of power; banking, government, big corporation, media. Imagine the disaster that this will cause.

    Imagine a civilization that see everything feminine as good and everything masculine as bad.

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