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Oil demand to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2022


Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect global oil demand to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2022, citing a pick-up in commuting, a shift to private transportation and higher infrastructure spending.

In a research note published Thursday, analysts at the U.S. investment bank estimated global oil demand would decline by 8% in 2020, rebound by 6% in 2021 and “fully recover” to pre-coronavirus levels by 2022.

Gasoline was thought to stage the fastest demand recovery among oil products as a result of a pick-up in broader commuting activity, a shift from public to private transportation for commuting, and a higher use of cars to substitute air travel for domestic tourism — particularly in the U.S., Europe and China.

Diesel demand was forecast to recover to 2019 levels by 2021, boosted by government-led spending on infrastructure projects.

However, Goldman Sachs warned jet fuel demand had been the “biggest loser” from the coronavirus crisis, with consumer confidence on flying set to stay low in the absence of a vaccine and consumer behavior potentially set to change over the long term.

Consequently, the U.S. bank does not expect jet fuel demand to return to pre-Covid-19 levels at least before 2023.

Peak oil demand

The forecast comes after oil prices staged a dramatic recovery in the three months through to June, notching their best quarterly performance in 30 years.

International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $42.75 a barrel on Thursday afternoon, up around 1.7% for the session, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $40.43, around 1.5% higher.

Brent and WTI futures skyrocketed more than 80% and 91%, respectively, during the second quarter but both benchmarks remain in bear market territory, each down more than one-third since the start of the year.

Crude futures plummeted to record lows in April, with the U.S. WTI contract falling into negative territory for the first time in history as coronavirus lockdown restrictions reached their peak.

The confinement measures effectively brought worldwide mobility to a standstill, creating an unprecedented demand shock in energy markets.

The International Energy Agency said last month that it expected the fall in oil demand this year to be the largest in history, with demand in the second quarter seen down almost 18 million barrels per day when compared to the same period a year earlier.

In its latest assessment of the oil market, the Paris-based energy agency also said it had reason to believe demand would reach a more “stable footing” over the coming months. It went on to predict the largest one-year jump in oil demand ever recorded next year.

Over the long term, analysts at Goldman Sachs said they now believed oil demand would not peak before 2030.

As per the bank’s Refining Oil Auto Demand (ROAD) model, analysts at Goldman Sachs said that its updated peak oil demand forecast was “driven by solid fundamental economic growth, emerging market demographics and relatively low oil prices.”

“We believe non-OECD countries and petrochemicals sector in particular will be the key drivers of oil demand growth in the next decade.”



5 Comments on "Oil demand to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2022"

  1. makati1 on Thu, 2nd Jul 2020 6:12 pm 

    Chicago’s theme song? My memory of another time when Chicago burned. History may not repeat, but it rhymes.

    Paper Lace – “The Night Chicago Died” Enjoy!

    BTW: ‘Paper lace’ was also the doilies made of paper, for those who may not know. “a small ornamental mat made of lace or paper with a lace pattern, typically placed on a plate under a cake or other sweet foods.”

    Memories of times long past, in another world. We never forget, it just gets buried under the unimportant.

  2. makati1 on Thu, 2nd Jul 2020 7:42 pm 

    BTW: “As of June 29, the country had recorded 36,438 cases of coronavirus with 9,956 recoveries and 1,255 deaths.” The US? Nope! The Philippines.

    With a population ~30% that of the US the Philippines has ~1% of the deaths that the US has.

    A lot safer here than in that “exceptional” country called “Amerika”.

  3. Anonymouse on Thu, 2nd Jul 2020 8:43 pm 

    Well, its more like probable a lot of those ‘death’s are the result of two factors.

    1)The general incompetence of the uS ‘health-care’ system is likely to blame for a lot of those deaths.

    2) The fraudulent, and deliberate mis-labelling of a LOT of these deaths as ‘covid-19’.

    IoW, official statistics on so-called covid-19 deaths, are nearly worthless in the uS, given the levels of deceit involved, and, incompetence of amerikan officials and agencies.

    Sound familiar? It should, as we both know full well.

    The truth of it is, the real number of deaths will never be know or even a close approximation. Instead, the grossly exaggerated ‘official’ stats, will be referenced for all time, even if it is acknowledged they are highly suspect.

    But your larger point is likely true enough. The numbers from the Philippines, are likely far closer to the reality, than anything reported out of the jewnited snakes. Or Canada, or the uK etc….

  4. makati1 on Thu, 2nd Jul 2020 11:56 pm 

    “Operation Dark Winter was the code name for a senior-level bio-terrorist attack simulation conducted from June 22–23, 2001.[1][2][3] It was designed to carry out a mock version of a covert and widespread smallpox attack on the United States. Tara O’Toole and Thomas Inglesby of the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Strategies (CCBS) / Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and Randy Larsen and Mark DeMier of Analytic Services were the principal designers, authors, and controllers of the Dark Winter project.”

    “The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation hosted Event 201, a high-level pandemic exercise on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY. The exercise illustrated areas where public/private partnerships will be necessary during the response to a severe pandemic in order to diminish large-scale economic and societal consequences.”

    If you think COVID-19 was an accident of nature, I have a bridge in NYC that I can sell cheap. I think we are witnessing the birth of that One World Government. OUCH!

  5. If you think CONVICT-19 was an accident of nature, I have a bridge in NYC that I can sell cheap. I think we are witnessing the birth of that One World Government. OUCH! on Fri, 3rd Jul 2020 1:24 am 

    thanks supertard, please love supremacist muzzies more

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