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Page added on September 24, 2018
Oil could rise to $100 by 2019
Oil prices could rise towards $100 per barrel towards the end of the year or by early 2019 as sanctions against Iran bite, commodity merchants Trafigura and Mercuria said on Monday at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) in Singapore.
Almost 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude could be taken out of the market as a result of the U.S. sanctions against Iran by the end of the fourth quarter this year, said Daniel Jaeggi, president of commodity merchant Mercuria Energy Trading, making a crude price spike to $100 a barrel possible.
“We’re on the verge of some significant volatility in Q4 2018 because depending on the severity and duration of the Iranian sanctions, the market simply does not have an adequade supply response for a 2 million barrel a day disappearance of oil from the markets,” Jaeggi said.
Washington has already implemented financial sanctions against Iran and it plans to target the country’s oil exports from November 4, putting pressure on other countries to also cut Iranian crude imports.
Ben Luckock, co-head of oil trading at fellow merchant Trafigura said crude oil prices could rise to $90 per barrel by Christmas and to $100 by the New Year as markets tighten.
TIGHTENING MARKET
Oil prices LCOc1 have been rising since early 2017, when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) together with other suppliers including Russia started withholding output to lift crude values. [O/R]
Unplanned disruptions from Venezuela to Libya and Nigeria have further tightened the market just as global demand approaches 100 million bpd for the first time.
The threats of disruption as well as the early supply cuts have helped to lift Brent crude futures to nearly $80 a barrel this month, a level not seen since 2014.
With U.S. sanctions against Iran, the third-largest producer in OPEC, looming, U.S. investment bank J.P. Morgan said in its latest market outlook that “a spike to $90 per barrel is likely” for oil prices in the coming months.
OPEC and other oil producers are considering raising output by 500,000 bpd to counter falling supply from Iran.
18 Comments on "Oil could rise to $100 by 2019"
onlooker on Mon, 24th Sep 2018 5:08 pm
Yes, definitely can rise to $100. But then I think you can expect it to nosedive back down and the Consumer Economies cannot tolerate Oil that high and a big downturn reaction to the price would ensue.
makati1 on Mon, 24th Sep 2018 5:40 pm
The match that explodes the debt economy of the US? Let’s hope so. Do I hear $150? $200? Go for it America!
dissident on Mon, 24th Sep 2018 9:37 pm
We are told day in and day out that the US fracking miracle will flood the markets with oil. The mere fact that even as the oil price increases there is no such flood proves that all the hype is BS. Trump demanding that OPEC and Russia increase production is yet more evidence.
Boat on Mon, 24th Sep 2018 10:00 pm
Dissident
Are you really that dumb you can’t read where the oil comes from? What fracking did was flood new demand and caused a temporary glut. It’s airheads like you fake news gets clicks from.
Boat on Mon, 24th Sep 2018 10:02 pm
Onlooker
They call that a cycle that has been happening for decades.
Boat on Mon, 24th Sep 2018 10:45 pm
… These cycles have been happening for almost as long as I’ve been sucking dicks for wooden nickels and giving change, dumb ass.
deadly on Mon, 24th Sep 2018 10:48 pm
Hundred dollar oil is gas at 3.60 usd per gallon, diesel at 3.80.
Don’t see it happening, it’s demand and demand will decrease with gas at 3.60 usd.
Photos
“Carbon dioxide CO2 levels indoors in occupied buildings are typically around 600 ppm to 800 ppm or 0.06% to 0.08% in concentration. You’ll find this data in many indoor air quality articles and books and it’s consistent with what we find typically in our own field measurements.
Carbon dioxide CO2 levels indoors in an inadequately vented space with heavy occupation is often measured around 1000 ppm or 0.10% in concentration. I have measured levels around 1200 ppm in occupied basement offices in a hospital where the staff worked in an area which had no decent fresh air intake into their ventilation system. I
n 1989 I also measured 1200 ppm at chest height in the center of the sanctuary in a Jewish synagogue during the high holy days in a small New York city. I also observed people nodding off. We were never sure if it was a droning sermon, exhausted worshipers at the end of a long week, or the CO2 level. But there was no doubt that we were not meeting recommended ventilation standards for that space.
The US EPA warns that indoor ventilation is inadequate at CO2 levels of 1000ppm”
Davy on Tue, 25th Sep 2018 6:24 am
“How Long Before China’s Exports Are Hammered By Trade War”
https://tinyurl.com/ybu755yg
“Two weeks ago we asked “when will the US finally feel the pain from trade wars” and answered: as soon as the $200BN in “phase II” tariffs are implemented, which happened just after midnight on Monday at which point is only a matter of time before rising prices catch up with ordinary Americans.”
“Echoing the above observations, Deutsche Bank, which once again deconstructs the answer, notes that while the US-China trade war has caused “visible damage” to China’s stocks, it seems to have had no impact on China’s exports so far. But now that the US has announced a tariff on US$ 200bn of China’s exports, when will the actual pain to exporters, corporates, and consumers start to be felt?”
“The flipside, of course, is that aggregate US imports from China were strong in July, because of interesting “front running” behavior as traders rushed to lock in deliveries, and prices, ahead of the next tariff round.”
“In addition to tariff frontrunning, other factors that may have helped China stabilize trade include strong external demand, as evidenced by the high PMI numbers ( Figure 2 ); depreciation of the RMB against the dollar; and hiking tax rebates for exporters for some goods.”
“Looking ahead, Deutsche Bank expects to see a moderate slowdown of exports in the next few months as the front-running efforts may help to smooth out the damage: Exports should drop in 2019 when the tariff rate increases to 25%.”
“In other words, with staggered “frontrunning” of future sanctions, 2018 will likely be a strong year for Chinese trade: as a baseline case, overall exports growth is expected to slow, but only gradually to 7% in Q4 2018 and 4% in Q1 2019. As a result, exports to the US will slow more rapidly, though growth will likely still stay positive in Q4 2018, and finally turn negative only in Q1 2019. It is only then that the trade outlook will be more challenging, especially if the trade war escalates further and drives out some supply chains from China.”
Sissyfuss on Tue, 25th Sep 2018 9:00 am
Brent currently at $82. Trump with his unfocused, illiterate management style, is going to be a fabulous environmentalist. For the only result that can aid in the environments recovery is the downfall of the global economy. Of course the accompanying mass die-off will be helpful also but not from an anthropogenic perspective.
JuanP on Tue, 25th Sep 2018 10:33 am
“Oil surges to 4-year high …”
https://www.rt.com/business/439290-crude-oil-prices-surge/
I AM THE MOB on Tue, 25th Sep 2018 10:50 am
Juanp
Looks like that Zombie peak oil is back!
Party like its 2006!
I AM THE MOB on Tue, 25th Sep 2018 11:01 am
And its hard to hold a candle in the cold September rain!
I AM THE MOB on Tue, 25th Sep 2018 11:30 am
Republican Party Declares Moral Bankruptcy
The Republican Party officially filed for moral bankruptcy on Tuesday morning, a move that many in the nation considered long overdue.
Harland Dorrinson, a Washington attorney who specializes in moral bankruptcies, said that, by making its moral vacuum official, the G.O.P. could theoretically break itself up and sell off the parts, but, he warned, “There are no buyers.
“From Lindsey Graham to Ted Cruz to Mitch McConnell to Chuck Grassley, all of the Republican Party’s assets could only be described as toxic,” he said. “Their breakup value is zero.
Further complicating such a sale, Dorrinson said, is the fact that the lion’s share of the Republican Party is already owned by the National Rifle Association, Koch Industries, and the Russian government.
“All of those entities are going to take a major loss on their investment,” he warned. “The Kochs have been trying to sell Paul Ryan for months, and they can’t give him away.”
https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/republican-party-declares-moral-bankruptcy
Anontarded1 on Tue, 25th Sep 2018 11:36 am
^mm^ i’m a libtard but i don’t vote. since we have a discussion of whether supremetard would vote, i’d say he wouldn’t because he’s an extremist. it’s not easy to turn the other cheek when luke 22:36 said they have them available if called for. but i think i’m now not against voting because i want the game to continue because democracy is a fragile system. it is under attack from SENTAPBVs who want to turn women into handmaid and jihadists who want to bag women.
both extremes subscribe to Mao’s philosophy that power flow from barrel of a gun.
I’d rather americans are well stocked with luke 22:36 but vote with actual paper ballots and not lead.
I AM THE MOB on Tue, 25th Sep 2018 11:44 am
Trump: “We are going to destroy Iran’s oil industry”
Also Trump: “Why the hell are prices so high?”
I AM THE MOB on Tue, 25th Sep 2018 11:48 am
Protesters chase Ted Cruz and Heidi Cruz from Washington restaurant
https://www.chron.com/news/politics/texas/article/Protesters-chase-Ted-Cruz-and-Heidi-Cruz-from-13256290.php?utm_campaign=sftwitter
You can run but you can’t hide..
Anontarded1 on Tue, 25th Sep 2018 11:54 am
^mm^ we’re all morally bankrupt and that’s why islam is taking over. supertard president paul said the law reflect the morality of the population and he didn’t like the law. i’m a tard and a former paultard so i followed everything he said when i became a blue republican to vote for him (pbuh, swt). that’s ok, this is politics is all about. i actually like the p*ssy grabber when he said his job is to push the limits of polical boundaries. i understood then that he’s committed to defending the use of politics to resolve issues. nobody likes anyone else but that’s the pain you go through if you’re a libtard when a contard is in the seat.
that and he gave jerusalem to israel, cutting off jizya payments ot pakistan and defeated isis. that melted my heart. i didn’t vote for him but i was leaned toward hillary. i did not vote for either. i’m sort of disappointed he was weak on defending luke 22:36.
the attacks makes me simpathize with him.
Free Speech Message Board on Tue, 25th Sep 2018 11:46 pm
What’s wrong with freedom?
Nazis scream that burning the flag must be illegal, but Libertarians ask why can’t free speech be legal.
Nazis say there must be trade wars and tariffs, but Libertarians ask why not just rid of regulations, work harder, and lower prices so that the US can compete on the world market.
Nazis and Commies scream that only the government can tell you the truth, but Libertarians ask why not use the free market to boycott media companies that you distrust.
Nazis and Commies scream that you must go to government schools, but Libertarians ask why can’t you go to a private school.
Nazis scream that Americans must be forced to go church and Commies scream that churches must be closed, but Libertarians ask why can’t you do what you want.