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Never Mind Peak Oil, Global Forecaster Calls Peak Gasoline

Never Mind Peak Oil, Global Forecaster Calls Peak Gasoline thumbnail

The International Energy Agency predicts that the global petrol craving is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels, calling for a peak of fuels that have powered personal transport for over a century.

The Paris-based Energy Watchdog closely follows five-year forecasts, improving fuel efficiency of gasoline-powered vehicles and accelerating the global shift to electric vehicles from developing countries. He said it would outpace demand growth.

This prediction came as automakers recently pivoted to increase their EV fleet after years of skepticism in the industry as to whether car buyers would adopt a fully electric model. General Motors announced that it will stop selling gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035. Volvo Cars of Sweden announced that it will be an all-electric vehicle by 2030.

By 2026, there will be 60 million electric vehicles on the roads of the world, up from 7.2 million in 2019, according to the IEA. The agency closely tracks EV trends as an important signal of gasoline and crude oil demand.

The transition to electric vehicles has been driven by government regulation, large incentives in developed countries, and the acceptance of a wide range of consumers in technology. This is also due to the popular models that Tesla sells. Co., Ltd.

EVs still make up a small percentage of the global fleet, and automakers say they expect demand for gas-burning internal combustion engines to increase over the next few years, especially in developing countries.

This forecast has come to a time when pandemics have boosted global fuel consumption and raises questions about whether it will change the world’s energy mix more generally in the coming years. Energy watchers have been discussing the timing of so-called peak oils, when demand for crude oil begins to decline, for years. With the surge in demand that began last year, some forecasters, including OPEC, said the day may already be dawning in developed countries.

The IEA announced on Wednesday that global oil demand has recovered, reaching 104 million barrels per day by 2026, thanks to developing countries, an increase of about 4% from 2019 levels. Economic powers such as China, India and other Asian countries will account for 90% of the net increase in oil demand over the next five years, the agency said.

But for the first time, officials said they did not expect a full recovery in gasoline demand. Gasoline is a product that has supported the world’s thirst for crude oil for many years.

“I don’t think gasoline consumption will return to 2019 levels again,” said IEA Secretary-General Fatibirol. Meanwhile, global jet fuel demand will not recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2024, the agency said.

With widespread government-imposed restrictions on coronavirus on travel, the IEA said that daily gasoline demand in 2020 fell by a record 2.9 million barrels, more than 10% from 26.6 million barrels a day in 2019. Said it has decreased.

The IEA said global gasoline demand will begin to recover as the economy recovers. However, the transition to EVs in richer countries is now accelerating at a pace where demand shortages exceed the growth expected from developing countries such as Indonesia, India and China.

According to ev-volumes.com, a research group that tracks EV sales, plug-in electric vehicles worldwide accounted for about 4.2% of new car sales last year, up 43% to 3.24 million units. In Europe, where EV sales are skyrocketing, plug-in electric vehicles accounted for 10.5% of new vehicles sold in the fourth quarter of 2020.

“E-mobility has won the competition,” Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess said this week, announcing a major new investment in a car battery plant and charging station.

Battery-powered electric vehicles will account for 50% of Volkswagen’s new car sales worldwide by 2030, Dís said. However, he said traditional internal combustion engine vehicles will continue to dominate in some markets.

“In some areas, we will continue to sell ICE longer than in others,” he said. “E-mobility will be achieved at varying levels of speed worldwide, depending on local policies and the supply of CO2-free energy.”

At Tesla’s “Battery Day” event in September, Elon Musk outlined plans for a $ 25,000 electric vehicle with cheaper and more powerful batteries. The company has set a monthly goal of ultimately producing 20 million electric vehicles annually. Photo: Susan Walsh / Associated Press (Video from 9/23/20)

Write to David Hodari at [email protected] and William Boston at [email protected]

CNBC



9 Comments on "Never Mind Peak Oil, Global Forecaster Calls Peak Gasoline"

  1. Dooma on Wed, 17th Mar 2021 9:36 pm 

    “EVs still make up a small percentage of the global fleet, and automakers say they expect demand for gas-burning internal combustion engines to increase over the next few years, especially in developing countries.”

    Luckily, ‘developing nations’ such as India, Nigeria and China all have insignificant populations. Clean air for everyone!

  2. Cloggie on Thu, 18th Mar 2021 1:51 am 

    “Volkswagen To Go All Electric By 2026”

    https://industryeurope.com/sectors/transportation/volkswagen-to-go-all-electric-by-2026/

    “BMW amps up EV plans, sees 50% all-electric sales by 2030”

    https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/bmw-ev-i4-ix-suv-mini-plans/

    Volkswagen is the largest car manufacturer in the world, so this is highly significant. Once the e-avelange has set itself in motion, it will gain rapidly momentum, as nobody wants to be seen left holding the gasoline bag.

  3. makati1 on Thu, 18th Mar 2021 5:23 pm 

    Cloggie, and your point is? There are till billions of FF vehicles on the road and millions added every year. A few million EVs will not even dent the percentages.

    You actually believe these ads for future sales that never happen? Proof of how gullible you are. No one even knows what tomorrow will bring. Certainly not something years away. Think COVID 2020.

  4. Biden's hairplug on Fri, 19th Mar 2021 2:09 am 

    “Cloggie, and your point is? There are till billions of FF vehicles on the road and millions added every year. A few million EVs will not even dent the percentages.”

    My point is that a car lasts only 10 years or so. By 2030, most of the 1 billion gasoline cars on the road today will be gone. Most will NOT be replaced, certainly not by gasoline vehicles.

    You cannot be the largest car company in the world if you are not a serious company. If VW announces that after 2026 it will no longer produce gasoline cars, than that should be taken serious.

    I believe that by 2030, privately-owned cars will be mostly a thing of the past and replaced by a much smaller fleet of autonomous driving, corporate-owned vans. Not because of giving in to the latest techno-gimmick, but out of pure necessity and scarcity.

    And what about peak-oil? Did that topic disappear in your eyes, or what? By 2030 there will not be sufficient affordable fossil fuel to drive 1 billion ICEs. And then there is WW3 that will destroy all supply routes.

    One of the good things of Covid is that it has shown that a society can continue to function, even without many cars, thanks to IT.

  5. makati1 on Fri, 19th Mar 2021 4:20 pm 

    Biden’, but by then there will be millions of NEW FF fuel vehicles that have replaced them. And on and on. EVs are a toy for the rich, nothing more. “Green” propaganda articles for fools like you.

    Hmmm. “…a society can continue to function, even without many cars…”

    1st: what “society” you you mean? Dinky Netherlands or the US? I don’t see much decline in any place in the world. Here in the Ps, it is going on as normal. Traffic is still a problem in Manila and it is not totally open yet.

    And, 2nd, is “society functioning”? Not 100% yet, in many places. But it will when this flu bullshit blows over, as it will soon.

    In the US alone, there were many more SUVs sold in 2020 than electric or hybrid vehicles.

    https://fortunly.com/statistics/us-car-sales-statistics/

    Keep sucking down that “green” cool-aid. LOL

  6. dejaolsone on Mon, 29th Mar 2021 2:45 am 

    Love yourself https://theimpossible-quizbest.com

  7. Antius on Mon, 12th Apr 2021 12:03 pm 

    A more realistic goal would be for a billion hybrid cars on the road by 2030. You only need 10% of the battery materials (i.e. a 30 mile range battery) to make that goal work, as compared to an all electric solution. But you can realistically get 80% of the benefits in terms of reduced emissions over the lifetime of the average car.

    The reduced amount of fuel needed for longer journeys can be partly or entirely synthetic. Biomass derived methanol consumed in a direct methanol fuel cell or free piston IC engine. You can afford to pay more for that fuel because much less is needed per average passenger mile over the life-time of the car.

    There is alsona lot more flexibility in what technology gets used in a hybrid. If flywheels, compressed air or hydraulic cylinders are used as the energy store, you don’t need all of those rare and difficult to find elements.

    But of course a compromise, hybrid solution, isn’t as exciting or as headline grabbing as a dramatic move to battery-electric. Idealists will always push for idealistic but unachievable solutions. The more affordable compromise options get left on the shelf. It is easy to promise to be all-electric at some far off distant date in the future. You also have the problem that policy makers are not engineers and do not therefore have the ability to think laterally. They are likely to reach for the idealistic solution that has received the most publicity and they are generally clueless about real engineering practicality. Car companies are then forced to follow them.

  8. Antius on Mon, 12th Apr 2021 12:33 pm 

    ‘And what about peak-oil? Did that topic disappear in your eyes, or what? By 2030 there will not be sufficient affordable fossil fuel to drive 1 billion ICEs. And then there is WW3 that will destroy all supply routes.’

    A real problem. But pure battery electric vehicles are unlikely to be an affordable solution to that problem for most people. And they are not the optimum solution from an embodied energy or resource sustainability viewpoint either. Producing 1 billion BEVs would severely strain the Earth’s lithium resources. And they don’t provide any solution at all for powering long-range trucks, ships or aeroplanes.

    We need more intelligent solutions. For ships and trucks, I would suggest solid oxide fuel cells, burning liquefied natural gas or LPG. Ships could burn raw biomass in gasification burners that fuel gas turbines.
    But I think LNG would be a more compact and affordable option. For cars, any of a dozen hybrid propulsion systems are possible, not all of them are electric. There is a lot of flexibility here.

    For planes, the substitution of other fuels for jet fuel. LPG is one of the technically easiest solutions. It has the advantage of about 30% greater mass energy density than Jet A. So, reduced fuel mass needed, which means more payload capacity. And we can adapt existing planes to work with chilled LPG. Dimethylether is another option. It has similar energy density to diesel, but can be produced from biomass derived syngas.

    A lot of possible solutions that can be blended together to manage this problem. The most idealistic and most heavily publicised options are often the least practical ones. I bet you never heard of an LPG powered aeroplane.

  9. Antius on Wed, 14th Apr 2021 4:35 am 

    ‘And what about peak-oil? Did that topic disappear in your eyes, or what? By 2030 there will not be sufficient affordable fossil fuel to drive 1 billion ICEs. And then there is WW3 that will destroy all supply routes.’

    A real problem. But pure battery electric vehicles are unlikely to be an affordable solution to that problem for most people. And they are not the optimum solution from an embodied energy or resource sustainability viewpoint either. Producing 1 billion BEVs would severely strain the Earth’s lithium resources. And they don’t provide any solution at all for powering long-range trucks, ships or aeroplanes.

    We need more intelligent solutions. For ships and trucks, I would suggest solid oxide fuel cells, burning liquefied natural gas or LPG. Ships could burn raw biomass in gasification burners that fuel gas turbines.
    But I think LNG would be a more compact and affordable option. For cars, any of a dozen hybrid propulsion systems are possible, not all of them are electric. There is a lot of flexibility here.

    For planes, the substitution of other fuels for jet fuel. LPG is one of the technically easiest solutions. It has the advantage of about 30% greater mass energy density than Jet A. So, reduced fuel mass needed, which means more payload capacity. And we can adapt existing planes to work with chilled LPG. Dimethylether is another option. It has similar energy density to diesel, but can be produced from biomass derived syngas.

    A lot of possible solutions that can be blended together to manage this problem. The most idealistic and most heavily publicised options are often the least practical ones. I bet you never heard of an LPG powered aeroplane.

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