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Page added on February 20, 2020

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Many signs of peak oil and decline

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Preface.  Recently the IEA 2018 World Energy Outlook predicted an oil crunch could happen as soon as 2023.  Oil supermajors are expected to have 10 years of reserve life or more, Shell is down to just 8 years.

Political shortages are as big a problem as geological depletion. At least 90% of remaining global oil is in government hands, especially Saudi Arabia and other countries in the middle east that vulnerable to war, drought, and political instability.

And in 2018, the U.S. accounted for 98% of global oil production growth and since 2008, the U.S. accounted for 73.2% of the global increase in production (see Rapier below).   What really matters is peak diesel, which I explained in “When trucks stop running”, and fracked oil has very little diesel, much of it is only good for plastics, and yet America may well be the last gasp of the oil age if production isn’t going up elsewhere.

Related

2019. When will ‘peak oil’ hit global energy markets? dw.com.  Darren Woods, CEO of ExxonMobil predicts a 25% rise in global energy demand for the next two decades, due to “global demographic and macroeconomic growth trends. When you factor in depletion rates, the need for new oil grows at 8% a year,” he told analysts in March.

Alice Friedemann   www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts: Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity , XX2 report

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Clearly the depth of wells we need to drill show we are reaching peak oil production:  2019-11-19 The Truth About The World’s Deepest Oil Well

How deep into the ground do we have to go to tap the resources we need to keep the lights on? How deep into the ground are we able to go?

The first oil well drilled in Texas in 1866 was a little over 100 feet deep: the No 1 Isaac C. Skillern struck oil at a depth that, from today’s perspective, is ridiculously shallow.

Ten years ago, data from the Energy Information Administration shows the average depth of U.S. exploration oil wells was almost 7,800 feet. It’s safe to assume that over these past 10 years, the average well depth has only increased.

The Bertha Rogers No 1 natural gas well in the Anadarko Basin used to be the deepest in the world, at over 31,400 feet. Unfortunately, at this depth the drillers struck liquid sulfur, which put an end to plans to continue drilling.

BP’s Tiber field in the Gulf of Mexico, drilled by the infamous Deepwater Horizon, became the location for the deepest oil well. The Tiber well’s depth was more than 35,000 feet.

There is also a record-breaker in terms of water depth: Maersk Drilling’s Raya-1 well offshore Uruguay was drilled in water depths of 3,400 meters or 11,156 feet.

2019-10-27 The Biggest Oil & Gas Discoveries Of 2019

Conventional oil and gas discoveries have fallen to their lowest in 70 years.  All in all, this year has seen new discoveries of nearly 8 billion barrels of oil equivalent, compared to 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent discovered last year, so only one barrel out of every six consumed is being replaced with new resources.

Not only has the pace of discovery declined, but discoveries are also in much more challenging geological venues and typically offshore, which means it could take many years just to bring new resources online.

The age of discoveries onshore is over. The future game of discovery is decidedly in deep waters.

2019-6-10 World crude production outside US and Iraq is flat since 2005

Alice Friedemann   www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts: Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity , XX2 report ]

***

Rapier, R. 2019. The U.S. accounted for 98% of global oil production growth in 2018. Forbes.

Earlier this month BP released its Statistical Review of World Energy 2019.   The U.S. extended its lead as the world’s top oil producer to a record 15.3 million BPD (my comment: minus 4.3 million BPD natural gas liquids, which really shouldn’t be included since they aren’t transportation fuels).  In addition, the U.S. led all countries in increasing production over the previous year, with a gain of 2.18 million BPD (equal to 98% of the total of global additions),… which helped offset declines from Venezuela (-582,000 BPD), Iran (-308,000 BPD), Mexico (-156,000 BPD), Angola (-143,000 BPD), and Norway (-119,000 BPD).

Peak demand?  Hardly: “the world set a new oil production record of 94.7 million BPD, which is the ninth straight year global oil demand has increased.

Matt Mushalik. 2019. World crude production outside US and Iraq is flat since 2005. crudeoilpeak.info

After 20 charts showing global oil production Matt concludes “When US shale oil peaks and Iraq can no longer increase production there will be some surprises for a complacent world which should have used the 2008 oil price shock as a warning to get away from oil – voluntarily.”

Fickling, D. 2019. Sunset for Oil Is No Longer Just Talk. Bloomberg.

An oil company that doesn’t increase its reserves eventually runs out of product to sell, so having 10 years of reserve life is traditionally considered a bare minimum for oil supermajors (for our purposes, take these to be Shell plus Exxon Mobil Corp., BP Plc, Total SA, Chevron Corp., ConocoPhillips, and Eni SpA).  Shell crossed below the 10-year level all the way back in 2016, and the figure at the end of 2018 stood at just 8.5 years.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is supermajor-reserve-years-2019.jpg

 

Williams, A. March 31, 2017. Down 10%, Mexico Oil Reserves Gone in 9 Years Without New Finds. Bloomberg.

Mexico’s existing oil reserves are dwindling so fast the country could go dry within nine years without new discoveries according to the National Hydrocarbons Commission, which said reserves fell 10.6% to 9.16 billion barrels in 2016, from 10.24 billion barrels a year earlier. Once the world’s third largest crude producer, Mexico’s proven reserves have declined 34% since 2013.

The decline in proven reserves is driven by record-low drilling activity the last three years. State-owned producer Petroleos Mexicanos drilled 21 wells last year, a record low, after averaging 31 per year since 2010.

Kaufman, A. C. 2016-10-26. Exxon Mobil could be on the brink of irreversible decline. Huffington Post.

Exxon Mobil Corp. may be facing “irreversible decline” as the oil giant fails to cope with low oil prices and mounting debt, a report released Wednesday found.The Texas-based company has suffered a 45% drop in revenue over the past 5 years as it bet big on drilling in oil sands, the Arctic and deep-sea sites ― decisions that proved expensive, environmentally risky and politically controversial.

Combined with a two-year plunge in oil prices, ballooning long-term debt to cover dividend payments to shareholders and an evaporating pool of cash, Exxon Mobil’s finances show “signs of significant deterioration,” according to new research from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a nonprofit based in Cleveland.

“Investors right now are getting less cash from Exxon than they have historically, and are likely to get less cash in the future,” Tom Sanzillo, director of finance at the IEEFA, told The Huffington Post on Wednesday. “This is going to be a much smaller company in the future, and the oil industry is going to be much smaller in the future.”

In April, Exxon Mobil was stripped of Standard & Poor’s top credit rating for the first time since the 1930s. The rating agency said it worried Exxon took on billions in debt to fund new drilling projects at a time when oil prices were high. Now, with the price of crudebelow $50 per barrel, that debt looks risky. Despite S&P specifically citing such payments in its downgrade, Exxon Mobil actually increased its dividend by 2 cents the next day.

Usually, dividends go up as a company’s stock price thrives. But shares of Exxon have trailed the S&P 500 for 10 quarters in a row, the report noted, and that’s before factoring in the risks of climate change.

Exxon Mobil is embroiled in a bevy of legal fights, notably with a handful of state attorneys general who are investigating the company for spending decades covering up the role of burning fossil fuels in global warming. The firm has repeatedly insisted such probes are politically motivated, and claimed that subpoenas seeking internal documents on climate change violate its constitutional rights.



77 Comments on "Many signs of peak oil and decline"

  1. Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 6:26 am 

    Enrichment idiocy latest:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/isis-st-pauls-cathedral-bomb-plot-terror-attack-london-safiyya-amira-shaikh-a9349206.html

    “Female Isis supporter pleads guilty over plot to bomb St Paul’s Cathedral“

    Unfortunately she failed, no doubt because the Mossad was too busy with false flag operations elsewhere to provide essential help.

  2. david Middleton on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 8:52 am 

    Supertard Middleton here
    This is a stupid fear mongering articals only for consumption by makako

  3. I AM THE MOB on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 9:03 am 

    US Intel: Russia is going to interfere in 2020 Election (AGAIN).

    If this happens again. (Of course they say it will).

    This should be considered an Act of War by Russia on the United States.

    HIT HIM HARD!

  4. supremacist muzzies jerk on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 9:26 am 

    Putin thanks America for info on muzzies
    It will be a lot of fun when uk amputate all muzzies in uk

  5. supremacist muzzies jerk on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 9:31 am 

    Did I say I appoint supertards Davey’s sock Richard Guunette supertard?
    His title is “the lover” (of muzzies)
    Congratulations to supertard Davy and his supertard sock Richard Guunette

  6. Anonymouse on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 12:13 pm 

    LOL, Davy is supporting a thug. You know this revolves around the policies of a thug who kills who he wants without judicial due process.

    That would be ‘president’ trump in case you were wondering dumbass. He likes to brag openly about killing people w/o due process himself, or even a warning. In fairness though, you amerijews do take some time to invent thoroughly worthless justifications, centered around claims of little or no legal merit of any kind to justify your murders. So yea, MORAL HIGH GROUND for the exceptionalturd(s) of the uS.

    Btw, the discussion (with mak, not your dumbass), was about ejecting uS farces from the Philippines. And since you dont live there, or even know where it is on a map, and are not stationed with any uS occupation forces there, I suggest you not let it trouble you too much.

  7. Davy on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 1:28 pm 

    annoymouse, your irrelevant stupid. You are not here enough to matter and when you are you say next to nothing. Most of the time your are sucking Mak’s dick or stalking cloggo or I. Fuck off

  8. Davy on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 1:42 pm 

    Oops, sorry y’all. I meant to say you’re irrevilant.

  9. JuanP is stupid on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 1:48 pm 

    This is from stupid

    Davy said Oops, sorry y’all. I meant to say you’re irrevilan…

    Not Davy said juanpee is stupid “Hello, that was JuanP stealing…

    supremacist muzzies jerk said Putin thanks fbi for info on muzzies Amputate all…

    Davy said Laut lachen!

    supremacist muzzies jerk said Grate news
    whitey supertard roasted 8 muzzies in G…

  10. Anonymouse on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 1:49 pm 

    Fuck off Juan. I can fight my own battles without your lunatic help

  11. JuanP on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 1:51 pm 

    Wow, Anon, why are your panties in a wad? I was just trying to help you by stealing Davy’s ID. Give me a break.

  12. Davy is stupid on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 1:59 pm 

    This is from stupid

    Davy said your irrelevant stupid…

    Davy said Oops, sorry y’all…

    Anonymouse said Fuck off Juan…

    JuanP said Wow, Anon, why are your panties…

  13. Dredd on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 2:36 pm 

    Don’t forget the oceans … (Seaports With Sea Level Change – 7).

  14. dissident on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 4:07 pm 

    At least the joker trolls on other boards can make for some real humour, on this board we have this inane, boring sock puppet insult fest. How sad.

  15. JuanP on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 4:59 pm 

    dissident, go over to the boring uptight side of the forum. We are big dicks over here

  16. REAL Davy on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 5:25 pm 

    D.Davy on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 4:59 pm

  17. JuanP on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 5:43 pm 

    Liar, that was me juanPee:

    REAL Davy on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 5:25 pm
    D.Davy on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 4:59 pm

  18. Davy on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 6:02 pm 

    It took us a long time to degrade the board to this point dis but were REAL Proud of our accomplashment.

    VICTORY!

  19. JuanP on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 6:08 pm 

    That’s not true Davy. I am the the REAL vilian of this board. I started the socks and ID theft. You are just doing what you hve to do to deal with me. VICTORY!

  20. makati1 on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 6:08 pm 

    Davy’s right Juan, you started this shit

  21. JuanP on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 6:13 pm 

    Look how China treats visitors!

    “They’re Traumatized”: Governments Ignore Plight Of Foreign Students Trapped In Wuhan

    Now, many young African students are exasperated by their governments, which they claim have basically abandoned them either to avoid straining ties with Beijing, or simply because they can’t risk introducing the virus to their impoverished and deeply unprepared health-care systems.

    According to Reuters, one Ugandan student in Wuhan is living in a crowded dorm. With no money, she survives on one meal a day. The student’s mother, who wakes up at 3 am Uganda time every day to talk with her daughter on WeChat, told Reuters that the young students have been “traumatized” by the experience.

    “They are traumatised,” said Namusisi, who wakes up at 3 a.m. every day to talk to her daughters over the Chinese messaging service WeChat. “They ask, has Uganda given up on us?”

  22. Davy on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 6:18 pm 

    I’m not foolin any one. We all no JuanP is me.

  23. makati1 on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 6:34 pm 

    JuanP we all know that you either post under supremacist muzzie jerkoff or Davy. You are a coward who is afraid to debate because Davy kicks you low IQ ass.

  24. Davy on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 6:41 pm 

    Oops. sorry y’all. I meant to say *your* low IQ ass.

  25. makati1 on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 6:43 pm 

    I said what I said stupid.

  26. supremacist muzzies jerk on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 6:44 pm 

    Juan, love, suck my cock

  27. JuanP on Fri, 21st Feb 2020 6:45 pm 

    Sock, I am too depressed

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