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Page added on February 13, 2018
IEA: Surge In Global Oil Supply May Overtake Demand In 2018
The rise in global oil production, led by the United States, is likely to outpace growth in demand this year, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday.
The Paris-based IEA raised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2018 to 1.4 million barrels per day, from a previous projection of 1.3 million bpd, after the International Monetary Fund upped its estimate of global economic growth for this year and next.
Oil demand grew at a rate of 1.6 million bpd in 2017, the IEA said in its monthly market report.
However, the rapid rise in output, particularly in the United States, could well outweigh any pick-up in demand and begin to push up global oil inventories, which are now within sight of their five-year average.
“Today, having cut costs dramatically, U.S. producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth,” the IEA said.
“In just three months to November, (U.S.) crude output increased by a colossal 846,000 bpd and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader.”
U.S. crude output could reach 11 million bpd by the end of this year, according to estimates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, along with other exporters such as Russia, have agreed to maintain a joint restriction on crude supply for a second year running in 2018, to force inventories to drain and support prices.
Oil inventories across the world’s richest nations fell by 55.6 million barrels in December to 2.851 billion barrels, their steepest one-month drop since February 2011, the IEA said.
For 2017 as a whole, inventories fell by 154 million barrels, or at a rate of 420,000 bpd. By the year-end they were only 52 million barrels above the five-year average, with stocks of oil products below that benchmark, the IEA said.
“With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.”
Oil production outside OPEC nations fell by 175,000 bpd in January to 58.6 million bpd, but was still 1.3 million bpd higher than January last year, predominantly because of the 1.3-million-bpd year-on-year increase in U.S. output.
OPEC output was largely steady at 32.16 million bpd in January and compliance with the supply deal reached 137 percent, due in part to declines in Venezuela, where economic crisis has paralysed much of the country’s oil production capacity.
The IEA estimates demand for OPEC’s crude in 2018 will average 32.3 million bpd, after dropping to 32.0 million in the first quarter of the year.
The IEA said oil prices, which briefly touched a high of $71 a barrel in January, could be supported even if U.S. production rises, provided global growth remains strong, or if unplanned supply outages persist.
“If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself,” the IEA said.
118 Comments on "IEA: Surge In Global Oil Supply May Overtake Demand In 2018"
Davy on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 5:31 pm
“For the natural world, civilization collapse can’t come soon enough which, also happens to be humanity’s best hope for survival.”
Come on, we can’t have it both ways. There is no win win here. Who’s humanity best hope? What about the billions of lives that need to end if civilization ends? We have no idea if humanity can collapse to save some humanity. We can have a big suicide rally to save the planet near term maybe. People that say these things are clueless and wishful. A part of me wants to save the planet but who here wants to die trying because that is what we are talking about.
GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 5:38 pm
If not for modern industrial society in the first place, nuke plants and/or a nuclear holocaust would be two less things for humanity to be concerned about.
Other than say an asteroid strike, or a rapid pole reversal, all of mankind’s existential threats are the direct results of modern industrial civilization. Modern industrial society will be the cause of not only our own extinction, but life as we know it on the entire planet. It either collapses, or we ARE going to go extinct.
GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 5:40 pm
“Come on, we can’t have it both ways.”
Duh.
GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 5:50 pm
“The American way of life is not up for negotiation. Period.”
-George Bush
Therein lies the problem.
The American way of life is not sustainable, and nature doesn’t negotiate with humans. Not even the most exceptional ones.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 5:59 pm
Davy
You made an excellent point! The reason I think these delusional people argue that collapse will be a good thing in the long run is that they are desperately grasping at straws to find a silver lining to our collapse..And the truth is there is no silver lining. 7.5 billion people are going to be through back into the stone ages and will suffer the most horrifying deaths they could possibly imagine.
Davy on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 6:11 pm
greggie and billyt cheer collapse because they think their little refuge is safe and it will be others who die not them. They realize this will be a dangerous time but deep down they want the rest of the world to destruct so they can have it both ways. Duh?
Davy on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 6:12 pm
“The modern way of life is not sustainable, and nature doesn’t negotiate with humans. Not even the most exceptional ones.”
there fixed that agenda point.
GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 6:18 pm
“there fixed that agenda point.”
It was a direct quote.
“The American way of life is not up for negotiation. Period.”
-George Bush
Davy on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 6:25 pm
“The American way of life is not sustainable, and nature doesn’t negotiate with humans. Not even the most exceptional ones.”
-greggieT
Boat on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 6:26 pm
greggiet,
Your idea of collapse is much different than mine. It could take many decades with resource poor/high population countries going down first. Maybe societies don’t collapse even if a chunk of their populations die from the effects of climate change.
Humans change and adapt.
makati1 on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 6:39 pm
“The American way of life is not sustainable…”
It is already crumbling faster and faster every day. Drugs, infrastructure collapse, suicides, dropping purchasing power, growing debt, failing educations system, murders, dropping life expectancy, pollution, police state tactics, lies about everything to coverup the mess, and on and on.
Davy on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 7:02 pm
“The Chinese way of life is not sustainable.”
There, added a bullet point to the agenda dump.
GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 7:08 pm
“The Chinese way of life is not sustainable.”
The Chinese way of life has existed for over 5000 years. The American way of life that they recently adopted, is not sustainable.
Davy on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 7:12 pm
Duh, are we living 5000 years ago in greggieT emotional agenda fantasy? Nope. We are living in an age where
the Chinese way of life is killing the planet.
GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 7:17 pm
“Your idea of collapse is much different than mine.”
No Boat, I don’t think that it is.
“It could take many decades with resource poor/high population countries going down first.”
Or it could take a couple of years with countries that are not used to living without high resource consumption going first. Which is far more likely in a resource constrained environment.
“Maybe societies don’t collapse even if a chunk of their populations die from the effects of climate change.”
Maybe many of the recent scientific reports are correct, a runaway greenhouse event has already kicked in, and mankind completely wipes himself out within a couple of decades.
So many possibilities. None of them include the long term continuation of modern industrial society..
GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 7:19 pm
“Nope. We are living in an age where the Chinese way of life is killing the planet.”
Nope, we are living in a age where capitalism, and the American dream, are killing the planet.
makati1 on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 7:21 pm
BAU for the West is on its deathbed. No future. The next few years will see that happen and for the best. The first to fall are the US, Europe, and Japan. After the reset, the East will be the new center of attention and power.
Davy on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 7:29 pm
Nope, China is now the primary reason the planet is dying. The US is also part of this but let’s realize the scale of this planetary destruction by China and not hide behind an emotional agenda that it’s ok
GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 7:33 pm
China is the manufacturing base for the West. The US is the largest consumer of Chinese manufactured products.
US corporations have off-shored not only labor, but energy consumption, and pollution. To say otherwise is to be disengenuis.
Davy on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 7:40 pm
China is enriching itself selling to the west. China is responsible for its actions. Duh?
There fixed that agenda dump with a bullet point
Boat on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 7:58 pm
AI and robotics has the potential to cut trade and the need for international shipping and handling. The age of cheap labor being a huge draw for manufacturing is probably near its peak.
Another factor slowing trade will be the cost of fuel for shipping. A big reduction in silver is coming in 2020.
These types of changes will separate continents. Developed countries with resources should fare better as they can use tech to ward/react to climate change.
makati1 on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 8:08 pm
Greg, the US imports about three times the stuff from China as China imports from the US. The US could not survive for long without Chinese stuff. Even the electronics parts in most of the cars, appliances, phones, computers, etc. come from China directly or indirectly.
US exports to China in 2107 = $130.4B
China exports to US in 2017 = $375.2B
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html
Americans committed economic suicide when the big corporations moved their production to the East. And it is NOT coning back. Trump knows this. So do any rational thinkers aware of realty. If anything, those factories will just move to tent country that has low wages, no regulations and high profits. In short, ‘Capitalism’. The US is doomed to be 3rd world as it can only compete at 3rd world wages/lifestyle.
makati1 on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 8:09 pm
Boat, you put too much faith in robotics. Not going to be a significant percentage of manufacturing ever. The financial collapse will end all changeover, as it will end the need for most factories. Be patient.
GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 8:25 pm
“Americans committed economic suicide when the big corporations moved their production to the East. And it is NOT coning back. Trump knows this.”
A big part of what Trump’s campaign was all about, when he promised to “Make America Great Again”. Of course anybody with the slightest level of intelligence was well aware that was never going to happen. That would kill retail, and the retail sector has now become the largest segment of the US economy.
Also, for the exceptionalist, as per usual when I speak of the US, I also include US satellite branch north, Canada.
Boat on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 8:26 pm
Mak
Get used to the fact all your short term collapse scenarios have as much chance now as they did 4 years ago.
Boat on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 8:33 pm
greggiet,
I think inland Canada is positioned to be one of the better places to be in 30 years. With the oncoming heat wave, Texas not so good.
I admit to little reading about Canadian event potential. Earthquakes or tornadoes?
GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 8:40 pm
“I think inland Canada is positioned to be one of the better places to be in 30 years. With the oncoming heat wave, Texas not so good.”
Northern latitudes are heating far faster than the South Boat. From all of the research that I’ve read, the Southern hemisphere will the best place to be, for about a decade longer.
Boat on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 8:43 pm
Mak
It is not a question of faith. I just try to stay abreast of current and future trends.
If/as the economy, depletion, weather, sea rise etc disrupt there will be more dramatic changes in trends. I hope I’m around for a long time to see it. One doesn’t really have to believe in much but fun to speculate.
GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 8:43 pm
“Get used to the fact all your short term collapse scenarios have as much chance now as they did 4 years ago.”
And a much higher chance than they did in 2008, when everything almost did collapse. Or have you already forgotten the reason for the TBTF bailouts.
Let me refresh your memory. “Without them, “There will be blood in the streets.”
Boat on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 8:54 pm
greggiet
I agree with that. In fact we should have spent a couple trillion more/faster to fill the economic hole. Would have saved a lot of pain. All infrastructure problems would be repaired.
We could have hired US drillers to drill gov land and kept them employed.
We could have offered much larger incentives for solar, wind, etc.
GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 9:00 pm
“In fact we should have spent a couple trillion more/faster to fill the economic hole.”
The economic hole is now 11 Trillion dollars deeper, than it was in 2008, and that only includes US Federal debt.
You can’t spend your way out of debt Boat.
GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 9:10 pm
And Boat.
That would be ‘they’, not ‘we’. ‘We’ would include you, and I very much doubt that you had/have any say in the matter.
Boat on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 9:37 pm
They are the Republicans who blocked more spending who now, when the economy doesn’t have the hole will spend away on more military and tax cuts.
Gasoline to fire up high interest rates.
Anonymouse1 on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 9:43 pm
Lol, both the retard AND exceptionalist love to include themselves in matters they have zero say, influence or impact on. It has been my observation that amerikans seem to do this often. I have also noted, that the lower in status, and or intelligence the, the greater the likelihood you will encounter statements such as
“we” did \will do\ are doing [xxxxx].
The fact they are not in the least bit involved in any aspect of the matter being discussed, except as very, very remote observers, never seems to register. That too, is a function of subpar intelligence at work.
The same delusions is evident in statements like:
“We won WWII”
“We will go to Mars…someday”
OR
“We will master fusion power”….also someday”.
Low intelligence and or social status, seems to be the tigger for ‘we’ meme.
makati1 on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 10:14 pm
Anon, it can also be blamed on the persistent 24/7/365 brainwashing they get from the cradle to the grave. The “We are exceptional/indispensable/number one” is hammered into their drugged up brains. By drugged up. I include the fluoride in their water, the chemicals in their GMO food and the very air they breath, along with prescription and illegal drugs, alcohol and tobacco. Their masters have them just where they want them. Debt slaves entertained with fluff, not the real world. Tale away their nukes and they would be North Korea.
Boat on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 10:16 pm
a mouse
Status is a joke other than my my own self esteem has taken a hit by dropping to the level of discourse displayed by a few on this site.
GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 10:20 pm
“They are the Republicans who blocked more spending who now, when the economy doesn’t have the hole will spend away on more military and tax cuts.”
The economy has the biggest hole that it has ever had throughout history. Twice what it was 10 years ago. Military funding is deficit spending. Tax cuts are also adding to the deficit.
Spending money that you already owe to somebody else, does not make the hole go away, it only makes the hole deeper.
“Gasoline to fire up high interest rates.”
Low interest rates are the Fed’s answer to stagnant economic growth, to get people to spend even more money that they don’t have, which also digs the hole deeper. At some point the central banks will have to raise interest rates, because if they don’t, they won’t be able to inflate the currency away, which is the main tool used to fight deflation.
GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 10:40 pm
Boat,
Thank you for showing some empathy for the death of our close personal American friend. She passed away in our daughter’s home last Thursday evening. She didn’t make it long enough for a doctor assisted suicide. She was 53 years old. You gained a great deal of respect from me for that Kevin.
Please try to put in at least a little bit of effort in understanding what others are saying, because with all due respect, much of what you say does not make any sense.
Cloggie on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 11:22 pm
“For the natural world, civilization collapse can’t come soon enough which, also happens to be humanity’s best hope for survival.”
It’s simply amazing how many people refuse to understand this.
Indeed, I will never forgive Richard Heinberg for not delivering on peak oil.lol
GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 11:35 pm
“Indeed, I will never forgive Richard Heinberg for not delivering on peak oil.”
Some people will likely still be saying that when mankind reverts back to burning animal oil. Peak oil? What peak?
There’s still plenty of rat fat left to burn. Enough to last for centuries…..lol
Cloggie on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 11:56 pm
Boat, you put too much faith in robotics. Not going to be a significant percentage of manufacturing ever.
Huh, most mass manufacturing these days is done by robotics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqCbYd8O8MU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIVtSviJ1-4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfkUJebR-Bo
GregT on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 12:18 am
“Huh, most mass manufacturing these days is done by robotics.”
The first video could really use help with a little CGI. Star Wars from the 80s was far more convincing.
The other two reminded me of the local car wash a couple of decades back, if you ignore the humans.
GregT on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 12:57 am
To be fair Cloggie, at least a couple of prominent hominids share you and Boat’s fascination of robots.
Stephen Hawking Fears A.I. May Replace Humans, and He’s Not Alone
“Hawking isn’t the first big name to warn about A.I. SpaceX and Tesla founder Elon Musk has claimed the technology poses “a fundamental risk to the existence of human civilization,” and its exponential growth is advancing “like a tidal wave.” ”
https://www.inverse.com/article/38054-stephen-hawking-ai-fears
Maybe after we cause our own extinction, we can leave something behind for human ( A.I. ) posterity. They’ll probably do just fine without food, water, and oxygen.
makati1 on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 1:14 am
“Huh, most mass manufacturing these days is done by robotics.”
Back that up with stats and refs please. I do not know what you call “robotics” but they are not dominant anywhere. Computerized machines are not new. I installed them in 1980, but they still required men to operate them, ‘feed’ them, repair them and replace them. Still do.
And the declining economy/increasing debt is going to end all forms of modernization anyway when it goes. Signs are already showing the decline in purchasing power in most Western countries and some Eastern ones. Mechanization has been around for about 140+ years, but you cannot call that “robotics”.
“According to a report by China’s Administration for Industry and Commerce (AIC) released on 14 January 2016, the number of companies in China is 77,469,000.” Most make parts for other companies to assemble.
https://www.chinacheckup.com/blogs/articles/how-many-companies-in-china
There are about 300,000 companies in the US as of 2012. Again, most make parts for other companies to assemble.
http://www.industryweek.com/expansion-management/decline-number-us-manufacturing-factories-not-due-offshoring.
Now, tell me again that they are “mostly” robotic”. You read about a few new startups, but not the whole. Your techie dreams ignore the reality that does not fit in. .
Davy on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 3:39 am
“There are about 300,000 companies in the US as of 2012. Again, most make parts for other companies to assemble.”
What a crock of shit
Davy on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 3:40 am
“According to a report by China’s Administration for Industry and Commerce (AIC) released on 14 January 2016, the number of companies in China is 77,469,000.”
What a huge distortion from a person who has no understanding of business or economics.
MASTERMIND on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 9:39 am
Mass School Shooter was a Trump supporter!
https://heavy.com/news/2018/02/nikolas-cruz-florida-instagram-nicolas-nicholas-social-media/
https://imgur.com/a/fSQvj
fmr-paultard on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 9:58 am
(mm) it’s not cool to grab it bro.
DerHundistlos on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 10:18 am
Gotta love this…..
President Dump has finally filled the position of Science Advisor to the Office of the President of the United States with…..
A 31-year-old college graduate with a degree in human resources management, vocal anti-environmentalist, and Dump campaign worker. Dump’s press release explained this “unconventional” appointment as necessary to infuse a “fresh perspective” into the position.
Every day is even more bizarre and twisted than the day before.
DerHundistlos on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 10:33 am
@ tard
Is this how you communicate while engaged in conversation? Do you refer to yourself in the third person?
I think it’s time that I send a few pearls of wisdom your way so stay tuned.
Maybe it’s not cool to grab it, but is it cool to work it?