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IEA: Surge In Global Oil Supply May Overtake Demand In 2018


The rise in global oil production, led by the United States, is likely to outpace growth in demand this year, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday.

The Paris-based IEA raised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2018 to 1.4 million barrels per day, from a previous projection of 1.3 million bpd, after the International Monetary Fund upped its estimate of global economic growth for this year and next.

Oil demand grew at a rate of 1.6 million bpd in 2017, the IEA said in its monthly market report.

However, the rapid rise in output, particularly in the United States, could well outweigh any pick-up in demand and begin to push up global oil inventories, which are now within sight of their five-year average.

“Today, having cut costs dramatically, U.S. producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth,” the IEA said.

“In just three months to November, (U.S.) crude output increased by a colossal 846,000 bpd and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader.”

U.S. crude output could reach 11 million bpd by the end of this year, according to estimates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, along with other exporters such as Russia, have agreed to maintain a joint restriction on crude supply for a second year running in 2018, to force inventories to drain and support prices.

Oil inventories across the world’s richest nations fell by 55.6 million barrels in December to 2.851 billion barrels, their steepest one-month drop since February 2011, the IEA said.

For 2017 as a whole, inventories fell by 154 million barrels, or at a rate of 420,000 bpd. By the year-end they were only 52 million barrels above the five-year average, with stocks of oil products below that benchmark, the IEA said.

“With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.”

Oil production outside OPEC nations fell by 175,000 bpd in January to 58.6 million bpd, but was still 1.3 million bpd higher than January last year, predominantly because of the 1.3-million-bpd year-on-year increase in U.S. output.

OPEC output was largely steady at 32.16 million bpd in January and compliance with the supply deal reached 137 percent, due in part to declines in Venezuela, where economic crisis has paralysed much of the country’s oil production capacity.

The IEA estimates demand for OPEC’s crude in 2018 will average 32.3 million bpd, after dropping to 32.0 million in the first quarter of the year.

The IEA said oil prices, which briefly touched a high of $71 a barrel in January, could be supported even if U.S. production rises, provided global growth remains strong, or if unplanned supply outages persist.

“If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself,” the IEA said.


118 Comments on "IEA: Surge In Global Oil Supply May Overtake Demand In 2018"

  1. GregT on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 11:10 am 

    “Mass School Shooter was a Trump supporter!”

    Of course the latest mass shooting had nothing at all to do with this:

    “A youth named Oli wrote on Twitter: “I knew the kid who shot up the school he had a ton of mental health issues that just got ignored by all the adults.”

    But rather because there is a supposed picture of him wearing a MAGA baseball cap.

    That’s that kind of unneeded crap that causes division in a society MM.

  2. Cloggie on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 12:05 pm 

    “Mass School Shooter was a Trump supporter!”

    Here is another surprising Trump supporter:

    *** Emmanuelle Macron ***

    The French president.

    To the horror of the German language news outlet of the US empire der Spiegel and virulent Trump haters, apparently Macron and Trump get along surprisingly well, so much so that der Spiegel fears that the axis Macron-Merkel is going to be eclipsed by a new axis Macron-Trump. And the new affection seems to be mutual, despite differences of opinion whether the US (Trump) or the planet (Macron) needs to be made great again.

    Currently Macron is Mister Europe and has taken over the political initiative from Merkel, who is a in death struggle at home trying to form a new government, where even her supporters at der Spiegel begin to advise her that she should retreat, considering the level of hatred she is encountering in her country after her ill-advised move to invite the entire world (read: virile dark young men) to Germany.

    Trump has promised Macron he will be the first head of state to be invited to Washington, returning the favor of his invitation to Paris, last year. And again a grand military parade, which Merkel abhors, will be held. Macron, who is busy mobilizing his fellow Europeans to cough up extra money to build a European army,l seems to like parades and on top of that he wants to make more debts, where Merkel insists on the “schwarze null” (black zero), to her credit, which is maybe a wrong choice of words.

    Many, including me, though one year ago that the meteoric rise of Macron was organized by the system and that he would be doing the bidding of Rothschild. That appears not to be the case. Macron could be busy turning himself in a French Putin.

    Things are going wel in America, Europe and Russia, regarding leadership.

    Bye, bye…

    Bye, bye neocons, bye, bye George Soros.
    Time’s up.

  3. GregT on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 12:19 pm 

    “Bye, bye neocons, bye, bye George Soros.”

    So how would you explain the Trump/Netanyahu press conference, and Trump’s declaration that the US recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel?

    Or do you think that Trump was just having a ‘blond’ moment?

  4. Cloggie on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 12:26 pm 

    So how would you explain the Trump/Netanyahu press conference, and Trump’s declaration that the US recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel?

    Trump is a Zionist, Putin is a Zionist, Hitler was a Zionist, I’m a Zionist [*], under the motto “every one of them who is in Israel is not here”.

    [*] – A Zionist is somebody who opines that Jews need to become normal, as opposed to being a self-styled messianic Chosenite, and have a country for themselves (Israel, Madagaskar, whatever), rather than being a Diaspora People, f* up nations with Bolshevism or multiculturalism where-ever they go.

    I have no doubt that Trump is well aware of the JQ:

  5. GregT on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 12:33 pm 

    Good find Cloggie. Thanks for that.

  6. Boat on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 12:46 pm 


    Once again were talking trends. Go read about how Amazon uses robotics in their warehouse. Musk, if I remember right bought out a German company that supposedly had the most state of the art robotics tech in the world to build his assembly lines. These billionaires thrive on tech and are rather successful at it. Google countries with highest saturation of robotics. Japan and China lead.

  7. MASTERMIND on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 12:47 pm 


    George Soros just donated his entire life savings to charity….You are a sad and pathetic and jealous person.

  8. MASTERMIND on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 12:51 pm 

    Trump is the neo cons wet dream come true..Tax cuts for the rich and corporations. And increased military funding! He has turned into a raging globalist NeoCon arguing for regime change! And didn’t he just attend the largest globalist conference at Davos last month?

  9. Anonymouse1 on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 1:05 pm 

    Hey cloggen-cohen, your fantasies notwithstanding, your idol, Soros, and the all the rest of the ‘neocons’ have not and are not going, anywhere. At least not anytime soon. Only a retard, or shill, would keep pushing this fake narrative of like you do over and over. There is no pressure, internally in the western empire that is causing your beloved, ahem, ‘neo-cons’ to lose much sleep. Sure, plenty of people wish they (the ‘neocons’), gone, and permanently too, but the western empire’s entrenched elites do not answer to public pressure generally, and not at all, when it comes to the question of who actually wields power.

    The dust up, as everyone here knows, (that isn’t a lying-for-zion shill), is ‘they’ are all supremely pissed the shill they bought and paid for, didn’t win. A ‘glitch’ in the system, landed the ‘wrong’ idiots ass on the ceremonial WH throne.

    Thats it, full stop.

    The ‘don’, is not leading any of your make-believe crusades shit-for-brains. And even if he did have the backing, stature, and the intelligence to mount such a ‘crusade’ (he doesn’t), he wouldn’t. He has neither the inclination or desire to upend the status-quo. He actually spends of most of his energy attempting to get them to ‘like’ him, and throwing tantrums when they dont, lol.

    Futile to be sure, and embarrassing to witness.

  10. Davy on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 1:24 pm 


  11. Boat on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 1:45 pm 

    Learn to goggle. By 2044 America will have a robot president. He will smash all the bad venzie and rooski robots to. then America will be grate again. amzon and ebay will be largest stores int he world and they be will robots too.

  12. Cloggie on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 3:02 pm 

    “He has neither the inclination or desire to upend the status-quo.”

    The very fact that all western media treat Trump like an enemy and not as one of them, makes your “analysis” null and void. He is seen as an outsider and non-system-certified intruder and that is what he is.

  13. Harquebus on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 3:04 pm 

    “Macron is like a conspiracy website’s wet dream. Not only was he groomed by Rothschild bankers, he was also a Bilderberg meeting attendee in 2014.”
    “The bottom line is Macron is a total fake.”

  14. Cloggie on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 3:32 pm 

    That was 25-4-2017.

    The first thing he did after his election was inviting Putin and Trump, the sworn enemies of the NWO and “bankers”, with full honours.

  15. MASTERMIND on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 3:55 pm 

    Dear Police

    please trace clogg’s IP address and investigate him. He most likely has some kind of criminal activity on his computer or could be planning a mass shooting in the future.

  16. MASTERMIND on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 4:07 pm 

    Peer Reviewed Study: Society Could Collapse In A Decade, Predicts Math Historian (Turchin, 2010)

    NASA Peer Reviewed Study: Industrial Civilization is Headed for Irreversible Collapse (Motesharrei, 2014)

    The Royal Society: Peer Reviewed Study, Now for the First Time A Global Collapse Appears Likely (Ehrlich, 2013)

    Peer Reviewed Study: Limits to Growth was Right. Research Shows We’re Nearing Global Collapse (Turner, 2014)

    Peer Reviewed Study: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: Global Systemic Collapse (Korowicz, 2012)

  17. Sissyfuss on Thu, 15th Feb 2018 6:19 pm 

    Boast, you’re drinking the cheap whisky again, aren’t you.

  18. Cloggie on Sat, 17th Feb 2018 2:22 am 

    Dear Police

    please trace clogg’s IP address and investigate him. He most likely has some kind of criminal activity on his computer or could be planning a mass shooting in the future.

    Dear Interpol, locate millimind’s whereabouts, as he publicly announced he wants to nuke China, India and Russia and rape Taylor Swift to top it off.

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