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IEA Says Oil Outlook is Fragile


The outlook for global oil demand is “fragile” amid growing signs of an economic slowdown, which squeezed consumption growth during the first five months of this year to the weakest in a decade, the International Energy Agency said.

The IEA, which advises major economies, trimmed forecasts for oil-demand growth this year and next, and warned that it may lower the estimates further as the U.S.-China trade conflict drags on. World consumption increased by just 520,000 barrels a day from January through May — about half the rate seen the previous year, and the slowest for the period since 2008, the agency said.

“The situation is becoming even more uncertain: the U.S.-China trade dispute remains unresolved and in September new tariffs are due to be imposed,” the Paris-based agency said in its monthly report. “The outlook is fragile with a greater likelihood of a downward revision than an upward one.”

Brent crude futures slumped into a bear market this week as tensions between Washington and Beijing escalated, and was trading near $57 a barrel in London on Friday. In response, Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, signaled that the kingdom and fellow nations within OPEC will keep production restrained.

The IEA trimmed its estimates for global oil demand growth in 2019 by 100,000 barrels a day to 1.1 million a day, implying a growth rate of about 1.1%. The outlook for 2020 was lowered by 50,000 barrels a day to 1.3 million a day, or a rate of 1.3%.

In the first half of the year, the only significant growth in demand was seen in China, the world’s second-biggest oil user, the IEA said.

Nonetheless, despite the downward economic pressures the agency still anticipates that demand will surge in the second half of the year, tightening markets sharply. Consumption will expand by 1.6 million barrels a day in the second half, almost three times the rate seen in the first.

Markets have tightened recently amid production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners, who collectively pump about half of the world’s supply.

OPEC’s crude output fell 190,000 barrels a day to 29.71 million a day in July, remaining at the lowest in five years, the IEA said. That’s about 940,000 a day less than will be needed in the third quarter, and so should cause world oil stockpiles to contract, it predicted.

The group’s biggest member, Saudi Arabia, signaled this week that it may be prepared to do even more. The kingdom has contacted other producers in the coalition to discuss further options to contain oil’s slide, according to an official who declined to be identified.

The IEA report indicates that next year Riyadh and its allies may indeed need to cut output further to keep supply and demand in balance. Oil markets face a renewed surplus in 2020 amid growing production from OPEC’s rivals, most notably U.S. shale drillers. The agency expects non-OPEC supply will surge by 1.9 million barrels a day this year and then an additional 2.2 million barrels a day in 2020.

“Under our current assumptions, in 2020 the oil market will be well-supplied,” the agency said.


34 Comments on "IEA Says Oil Outlook is Fragile"

  1. Davy on Fri, 9th Aug 2019 12:35 pm 

    Eventually economic decline will stunt consumption growth and cause havoc and or a supply disruption because of war. The future does not look good either way. Prices high or low are now dangerous.

  2. Robert Inget on Fri, 9th Aug 2019 1:35 pm 

    IT’s GROWTH that’s slowing NOT overall consumption. Consumption levels have been trimmed from 100 MB p/d to 99.6 MB p/d.

    Production is falling like shoppers in a Wall Mart.
    (too soon?)

  3. Davy on Fri, 9th Aug 2019 1:54 pm 

    “Production is falling like shoppers in a Wall Mart.”

    More arrogant west coast liberal callousness.

    I thought you blind lying liberals were politically correct?

  4. Not Davy on Fri, 9th Aug 2019 2:24 pm 

    Davy on Fri, 9th Aug 2019 1:54 pm

  5. Davy on Fri, 9th Aug 2019 2:39 pm 

    Y’all can try to make me look like an arrogant prick as much as you like. I don’t give a shit. Besides, everyone knows I’m voting liberal in the next election, cause I told y’all a hundred times already.

    LMFAO @ the dumbasses!

  6. Anonymouse on Fri, 9th Aug 2019 5:45 pm 

    Rigporn may think the outlook for oil is ‘fragile’, whatever that is supposed to mean, but that is not the only fragile thing out there.

    Know what else is fragile, as in very fragile? The exceptionalturds ego. That is why he spends all day long socking, stalkjing, and ID thieving on the internet. His fragile ego cannot handle all the neutering he gets here on a daily basis. Makes you wonder how he hasn’t completely imploded by this point. I think secretly, he enjoys being a raging murikan A-hole, battling ‘extremists’ on the internet, or, the ones that exist only in his diseased and fevered mind at any rate.


  7. Anonymouse on Fri, 9th Aug 2019 6:05 pm 

    Albert Edwards: “Chinese Authorities Lost Control Of The Situation Back In 2015
    what Edwards focused on in his latest periodic report was China in the wake of the intensification of the trade/currency war and the recent historic breach of the 7.00 Yuan floor, and in typical style, Edwards cautioned that “investors may be underestimating the turmoil that is now stirring under the surface in China. All may not be as stable as investors suppose.” One of Edwards’ key argument is, as we said earlier today, that contrary to popular opinion, it is not China that is winning the trade war – after all it has the benefit of time, while Trump has to win (or lose) the war ahead of the 2020 presidential election – but rather it is Trump who has the upper hand (today’s news of a 3rd major Chinese bank failure/bailout in as months certainly underscores Edwards’ claim). A major Chinese investment bank recently suggested the industrial sector has lost about 5 million jobs in the last year, almost half of which are attributable to the trade war.”

  8. More Davy ID Theft on Fri, 9th Aug 2019 6:19 pm 

    Anonymouse on Fri, 9th Aug 2019 6:05 pm

  9. More Davy ID Theft on Fri, 9th Aug 2019 6:50 pm 

    Anonymouse on Fri, 9th Aug 2019 5:45 pm

  10. makati1 on Fri, 9th Aug 2019 9:15 pm 

    5,000,000 jobs in a country of 1,400,000,000.

    How many Americans are not working a normal 40 hour/living wage/benefits job? Hint: many more than 5 million. About 50 million plus in the real world. Who’s buying power has not increased in 40 years? Americans. i 2woulf not point fingers.

    No matter how much you want China to fail, it isn’t going to. It is not a pseudo democracy like the US. It can do things not possible in the US, and do it instantly.

    Fun to watch the US sunk into the swamp of debt. $74,000,000,000,000. ($74T) and climbing…er…sinking.

  11. makati1 on Fri, 9th Aug 2019 9:17 pm 

    i 2woulf not point fingers. = I would not point fingers. Should proof read when the cat walks on the keyboard. LOL

  12. joe on Sat, 10th Aug 2019 9:49 am 

    What, no Cloggie Brexit or Bo Jo post yet? Bit disappointed…..

  13. Famlin on Sat, 10th Aug 2019 11:19 am 

    Oil production/consumption info from bp-stats for the year 2018
    Indonesia (1 time opec country) imports 50.7 % of its oil.
    Malaysia another significant oil exporter is now an oil importer.
    Australia could produce only 30% of the oil it consumes even though its 6th largest country by land area and has a very small population.

    Production Consumption Production % on consumption
    Australia 15.2 51.1 29.7
    China 189.1 628.0 30.1
    India 39.5 236.6 16.7
    Indonesia 39.5 80.1 49.3
    Malaysia 31.5 34.8 90.3
    Thailand 17.3 63.1 27.4
    Vietnam 13.0 23.9 54.3

  14. PoopPie on Sat, 10th Aug 2019 2:30 pm 

    Where’s me oil, Olive?

  15. Anonymouse on Sat, 10th Aug 2019 3:43 pm 

    Studio Cancels Release Of Elite-Liberals-Hunting-Trump-Supporters Movie
    As we noted yesterday, it took several weekends of mass shootings for Universal Pictures to yank ads for (but not postpone, or cancel) an R-rated ‘murder-porn’ movie in which elite liberals hunt Trump supporters for sport. “The same people who want you to give up the right to bear arms are the same people making movies about killing Trump supporters for sport,” tweeted OANN Chief White House Correspondent Emerald Robinson. “Did anyone see what our ratfucker-in-chief just did?” asks one character early in the screenplay for The Hunt – set to open Sept. 27. “At least The Hunt’s coming up. Nothing better than going out to the Manor and slaughtering a dozen deplorables,” is the reply. But, after furious backlash in the last few days, that has changed as The Hill reports that Universal Pictures says it is canceling the release of “The Hunt” following intense criticism on both sides of the aisle about the upcoming film. “While Universal Pictures had already paused the marketing campaign for ‘The Hunt,’ after thoughtful consideration, the studio has decided to cancel our plans to release the film,” a Universal Pictures spokesperson told The Hill in a statement. “We stand by our filmmakers and will continue to distribute films in partnership with bold and visionary creators, like those associated with this satirical social thriller, but we understand that now is not the right time to release this film.” This decision followed President Trump’s outburst against “racist” Hollywood on Friday, blaming popular culture for pushing “dangerous” movies. “The movie coming out is made in order… to inflame and cause chaos. They create their own violence, and then try to blame others,” Trump tweeted Friday. “They are the true Racists, and are very bad for our Country!” As Daisy Luther noted, imagine if the shoe was on the other foot and “liberal snowflakes” were being hunted by a bunch of red-hat wearing rednecks. The media would go wild and reasonably so. But when conservatives are in the crosshairs? Crickets. But Universal’s decision to cancel release (for now), at least delays the inevitable surge in divisiveness and outrage that is coming as we head into an election cycle.

  16. Cloggie on Sat, 10th Aug 2019 4:53 pm 

    As we noted yesterday, it took several weekends of mass shootings for Universal Pictures to yank ads for (but not postpone, or cancel) an R-rated ‘murder-porn’ movie in which elite liberals hunt Trump supporters for sport.

    I hope these liberals understand that Trump-supporters constitute about half the adult population of the US.

    As an insider, do you have any idea about the “half-life” of the US or Canada, as well as the consequences for you personally?

    This btw is a movie, “The Chekist”, about the SOVIET REALITY, where I AM THE MOB types make it a sport to hunt Russian conservatives:

    Trump-supporters ard well-advised to watch this movie in order to have a grasp of what the near future might have in store for them.

  17. Anonymouse on Sat, 10th Aug 2019 5:04 pm 

    Fuck off with your fake posts Davytard. Go outside. Maybe take some water and food to the suriving animals trapped on your horror-show ‘farmstead’.

    I dont cut and paste ZH, or anywhere else for that matter, w/o attribution, nor do I particularly care for your ameriJew ‘liberal’ v ‘CONjob’ culture war BS either. Try harder. Or better yet, dont try at all.


  18. Davy on Sat, 10th Aug 2019 5:30 pm 

    Shut up dork, juanpee likely did that to make it look like me. Pull your panties out of your cunt you are losing your shit. BTW, anonymouse is a generic dumb fuck, anybody can use it. Go whine to your gang member makato and juanpee

  19. Davy on Sat, 10th Aug 2019 5:35 pm 

    BTW, annoymouse, where is your blowjob buddy, juanpee?

  20. The Church Ladies Know on Sat, 10th Aug 2019 6:21 pm 


    We command thee be silenced ye father of all whores and abominations.

  21. Anonymouse on Sat, 10th Aug 2019 6:25 pm 

    Juan, stop the shit it is just backfiring on Mak and I.

  22. The Church Ladies Know on Sat, 10th Aug 2019 6:26 pm 


    The CHURCH LADIES of the CHURCH of the HOLY SAINT command thee to SILENCE for you are a Destroyer of Truth and Father of Whores and Lies.

    We cast thee to the bottomless pit of your domain.


  23. makati1 on Sat, 10th Aug 2019 6:26 pm 

    Yea, Juan, we are big boys and can handle ourselves. I like debating over trolling.

  24. Anonymouse on Sat, 10th Aug 2019 6:27 pm 

    Juan, your church lady stuff make you look like a lunatic

  25. makati1 on Sat, 10th Aug 2019 6:27 pm 

    Yea, juan, give it a rest

  26. Grammar Nazi on Sat, 10th Aug 2019 6:28 pm 


    At least get your English grammar correct otherwise you appear as an illegal immigrant.

    “Juan, stop the shit it is just backfiring on Mak and I.”

    Correct: Juan, stop the shit it is just backfiring on Mak and me.

  27. makati1 on Sat, 10th Aug 2019 7:20 pm 

    All makati1 after “Robert… is ID theft.

  28. Anonymouse on Sat, 10th Aug 2019 11:57 pm 

    You mean all the makati1 after Robert is…. the Davytard.

    He’s been socking and stalking all day long. Kind of like every other day actually, lol.

  29. Cloggie on Sun, 11th Aug 2019 2:17 am 

    “You mean all the makati1 after Robert is…. the Davytard.”

    Have you ever considered the possibility, great North-African thinker, that makati, empire dave, juanpee… are all Jews? Now here is something to chew on for you for the rest of the Sunday.

  30. Anonymouse on Tue, 13th Aug 2019 6:57 am 

    Yo, I especially want to thank juanpee. If it wasn’t for him and all the material for growth he gave me, I’d still be posting mindless copy and paste spam from other websites, and I’d still be as delusional as ever.

    Thanks juanpee!

  31. JuanP on Tue, 13th Aug 2019 6:58 am 

    Go Trump! Anyone but Hillary! My wife and I are considering volunteering for the Trump campaign to fight the narcissistic, psychopathic bitch.
    I think I could use my antisocial, psychopathic, sociopathic skills to convince people to vote for Trump. I can be very convincing when I want and I am excellent at manipulating people.

  32. JuanP on Tue, 13th Aug 2019 6:59 am 

    I stopped caring about humanity’s future a long time ago once I realized it was a waste of my time and energy. Now I think that it would be best for life on Earth if we ceased to exist as a species. I struggle with the fact that I belong to the same species; I find myself emotionally and intellectually incapable of accepting the fact. That is why I consider myself a sui generis individual rather than a human animal.

  33. Truth Buster on Tue, 13th Aug 2019 7:00 am 

    WTF is sui generis dumb fuck. Go beat off somewhere else low life

  34. Davy on Tue, 13th Aug 2019 10:04 am 

    Oops, sorry for losing my widdle temper again everyone. Y’all can tell I’m extra triggered when I use the ‘C’ word. My mommy told me It’s a real bad word to use. Maybe if I had of lurned to listen to my mommy, I would’nt have turned into such a societal outcast.

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