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Page added on July 12, 2020

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IEA raises 2020 oil demand estimate

Consumption

The global economy bounced back from the worst of pandemic lockdowns faster than expected in the second quarter but a second wave of COVID-19 infections could still derail the strong recovery so far, the International Energy Agency said July 10.

In its latest monthly oil market report, the Paris-based agency raised its estimate for global oil demand by 400,000 b/d this year, estimating the demand collapse during the peak of lockdowns in Q2 was less severe than expected at 16.4 million b/d. Last month, the IEA had estimated a Q2 demand hit of almost 18 million b/d.

Global oil demand in 2020 is now forecast to average 92.1 million b/d, down 7.9 million b/d over 2019, the IEA said.

With lockdowns lifting, demand rebounded strongly in China and India in May, increasing by 700,000 b/d and 1.1 million b/d on the month, respectively, the IEA said. Indian oil deliveries also surprised to the upside in June, the IEA said citing provisional data. Next year, demand is now forecast to grow by 5.3 million b/d to 97.4 million b/d, unchanged from the IEA’s previous report.

But the energy market watchdog cautioned that the outlook is overshadowed by the potential for a return to lockdowns due to second-wave COVID-19 infections globally.

“While the oil market has undoubtedly made progress since ‘Black April,’ the large, and in some countries, accelerating number of COVID-19 cases is a disturbing reminder that the pandemic is not under control and the risk to our market outlook is almost certainly to the downside,” the IEA said.

In the US, the IEA noted that — after plateauing around 20,000 in the first half of June — the number of new COVID-19 cases accelerated “spectacularly” to more than 50,000 in early July. As a result, the data is showing mobility and gasoline demand is slipping back in the worst-hit states of Texas, Arizona, California, and Florida.

Largely reflecting the threat to US demand, the IEA lowered its third-quarter demand forecast by 630,000 b/d to 94.3 million b/d, which is 6.5 million b/d below the year-ago levels. IEA also revised down the Q3 demand forecasts for Brazil, Russia and Saudi Arabia, among other countries.

S&P Global Platts Analytics currently estimates that global oil demand will shrink by 8.3 million b/d this year to average 94.2 million b/d before recovering to 101.2 million b/d in 2021.

Oil supply slump

On supply, the IEA said global oil output tumbled to a nine-year low in June after Saudi Arabia cut an extra 1 million b/d over its OPEC+ target and output in both Iraq and the US fell by around 500,000 b/d.

With OPEC+ cutting crude output by nearly 2 million b/d from May, the producer group’s overall cuts rose above 10 million b/d, boosting its compliance to 108% from 88% a month earlier, the IEA estimates.

As a result, global supplies averaged 86.9 million b/d in June, down 2.4 million b/d month on month and by 13.4 million b/d year on year.

In July, the IEA expects to see higher production as Saudi Arabia halts its additional voluntary cut and the US and Canada start to recover.

The IEA said it also sees US production falls bottoming out in the second half before recovering slowly while OPEC+ countries are set to ease their existing cut by around 2 million b/d from August.

Given the revision to its demand and supply outlook, the IEA revised upward its estimates for the call on OPEC’s crude this year by 200,000 b/d to 24.2 million b/d.

World oil demand/supply outlook

In 2021, the IEA estimates demand for OPEC’s crude will average 28.7 million b/d, 200,000 b/d higher than its previous forecast. The OPEC call for 2021, however, is well above the cartel’s current 2021 output target of 23.03 million b/d, a level which would only rise to 25.6 million b/d after including the current output levels from members Iran, Venezuela and Libya, which are not covered by the quotas.

US oil stocks still growing

The global oil stocks picture was mixed in June after hitting highs in May as a tightening crude market balance and a flatter forward price curve reduced the incentive to store oil, the IEA said.

In the US, preliminary data for June showed that commercial stocks built by 24.7 million barrels (800,000 b/d), led by oil products. US crude stocks rose by 2.8 million barrels month on month, when they typically fall 13.4 million barrels.

Global floating storage of crude, however, fell by 34.9 million barrels from a record high in May to 176.4 million barrels, the IEA said.

For May, the IEA said OECD industry stocks rose by 81.7 million barrels on the month, or 2.64 million b/d to 3.22 billion barrels, rising by 2 million b/d since the end of 2019. At the end of May, OECD stocks stood more than 300 million barrels above their end-2019 levels.

SP Global



22 Comments on "IEA raises 2020 oil demand estimate"

  1. Cloggie on Mon, 13th Jul 2020 3:05 am 

    Singapore-US company Hyzon wants to do to the global truck market what Tesla did to the sedan market: take it by storm. For Europe they have started a joint-venture with Dutch company Holthausen:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2020/07/13/holthausen-hyzon-to-produce-2000-hydrogen-trucks-per-year/

    “Holthausen & Hyzon to Produce 2000 Hydrogen Trucks per Year”

  2. FamousDrScanlon on Mon, 13th Jul 2020 12:01 pm 

    Shale boss says US has passed peak oil

    https://www.ft.com/content/320d09cb-8f51-4103-87d7-0dd164e1fd25

  3. Duncan Idaho on Mon, 13th Jul 2020 12:06 pm 

    We are not at peak oil.
    That happened globally in Nov of 2018.
    We are millions of barrels less.
    Will we ever surpass that?
    I would not hold your breath.

  4. zero juan on Mon, 13th Jul 2020 12:10 pm 

    morning with the lunatic:

    FamousDrScanlon said Shale boss says US has passed peak oil https://www

    Davy said ooooo

    supertard SRC-19 thank you for ur prosts your prost is SCIENCE-19 caliber so it is top notch thank you for lovin supremacist muzzies said aint nothing wrong with showig your status us sla…

    Joe Biden Matters said ME TOO!

    Hillary Clinton said I sharted myself earlier this morning.

    Muzzie lover who speaks the high English!!! said No mother licker no!, the chickens are not to bla…

    Crazy bastard hiding in your wardrobe! said If the covid is from wuhan and the Wuhan is found…

    SocialRevolutionComing said Masks to become mandatory in Quebec https://www.yo

    supertard madcat what ur risk of being kidnapped and behaded by MUZZ-19 please be realistic and honest just asking questions no need to get offended said makati1 on Mon, 13th Jul 2020 12:08 am Fish? What…

  5. Davy on Mon, 13th Jul 2020 12:18 pm 

    Duncan’s people:

    “AOC Blames NYC Crime Wave On People “Needing To Feed Their Child””
    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/aoc-blames-nyc-crime-wave-people-needing-feed-their-child

    “The wave of violent crime in U.S. cities continued this weekend with a reported 22 shootings in New York, including one in which an infant was fatally shot late Sunday night in a Brooklyn playground. At least 28 people were wounded in the weekend shootings in New York. So what or who is to blame for this sudden surge in violence? As RealClearPolitics.com’s Tim Hains reports, during a virtual town hall on Thursday, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez opined about the causes of a wave of crime in New York City… Maybe this has to do with the fact that people aren’t paying their rent and are scared to pay their rent and so they go out, and they need to feed their child and they don’t have money so … they feel like they either need to shoplift some bread or go hungry.”

  6. Davy on Mon, 13th Jul 2020 12:29 pm 

    My people

    “The Left’s “Boycott” Of Goya Has Backfired Spectacularly As Conservative Customers Clean Out Store Shelves”
    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/lefts-boycott-goya-has-backfired-spectacularly-conservative-customers-clean-out-store

    Go Goya!

  7. FamousDrScanlon on Mon, 13th Jul 2020 12:31 pm 

    My fucking people:

    “The Left’s “Boycott” Of Goya Has Backfired Spectacularly As Conservative Customers Clean Out Store Shelves”
    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/lefts-boycott-goya-has-backfired-spectacularly-conservative-customers-clean-out-store

    Go Goya!

  8. JuanP on Mon, 13th Jul 2020 12:38 pm 

    Dr. Stop it with the fuck stuff. That kind of language is not allowed on this forum. I never talk like that.

  9. JuanP on Mon, 13th Jul 2020 12:39 pm 

    US will never passed peak oil:

    https://www.ft.com/content/320d09cb-8f51-4103-87d7-0dd164e1fd25

    GO TRUMP 2020

  10. folowing prots is SCIENCE-19 never try to dispute it im rite u rong end of story on Mon, 13th Jul 2020 1:37 pm 


    I also approve all prosts above as SCIENCE-19 it is top notch

    As Palestinian Authority calls for jihad against Israel, US House Subcommittee votes to give it $250,000,000

    muzzs are getting fat in west bank and gaza on jizya

    meanwhile congrates to polish duda he will love and amputate all muzz

    Stay safe of CONVICT-19 out there

  11. FamousDrScanlon on Mon, 13th Jul 2020 1:45 pm 

    Cloggie, you really get excited over these, looking for sucker investors hype articles.

    Me, I usually wait for the hype to actually happen before I do cartwheels.

    Most of your alt energy wonderland links are about some alt energy deal that’s going to happen. Most never do & get chucked down your memory hole.

    You’re King Bright Sider. Worse than Oprah.

  12. https://appropriations.house.gov/subcommittees/state-foreign-operations-and-related-programs-116th-congress obv this jizya is good muzzie loving gesture on Mon, 13th Jul 2020 1:52 pm 


    ljs

  13. zero juan on Mon, 13th Jul 2020 2:27 pm 

    Lunatic

    foreign-operations-and-related-programs-116th-congress obv this jizya is good muzzie loving gesture said ljs

    FamousDrScanlon said Cloggie, you really get excited over these, lookin…

    folowing prots is SCIENCE-19 never try to dispute it im rite u rong end of story said I also approve all prosts above as SCIENCE-19 it…

    JuanP said US will never passed peak oil: https://www.ft.com/

    JuanP said Dr. Stop it with the fuck stuff. That kind of lan…

    FamousDrScanlon said My fucking people: “The Left’s “Boycott” Of Goya H…

    JuanP said “Awesome news Cancel. OK I will buy some Goy…

    Davy said My people “The Left’s “Boycott”…

    JuanP said “Boost for Trump: https://edition.cnn.com/2

    JuanP said so true Duncan so true

  14. Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 13th Jul 2020 3:51 pm 


    Cloggie, you really get excited over these, looking for sucker investors hype articles.

    Me, I usually wait for the hype to actually happen before I do cartwheels.

    I puke on your defeatism, characteristic for weaklings and nihilists; “cancer apes” I believe your vocabulary is. Big shrug. Your political entity has long stopped being at the forefront of anything, if we ignore for a moment: looting, arson, anarchy, virtue signaling, burglary, murder, statue toppling, the full wax.

    Back to reality:

    https://www.offshorewind.biz/2020/07/13/artificial-island-for-windpark-fryslan-to-be-built-by-september/

    Hoppa, this just in: 387 MW, will be operational next year. Installing offshore wind goes quick, as there are no NIMBY protesters. This kind of news comes in on a daily basis:

    https://www.offshorewind.biz/

  15. Cloggie on Mon, 13th Jul 2020 4:53 pm 

    Kick-off largest renewable hydrogen/ammonia storage project in the world in Saudi-Arabia:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2020/07/13/4gw-storage-project-in-saudi-arabia/

    “4GW Storage Project in Saudi-Arabia”

    Online 2025. German (H2)-American (N2)-Danish (NH3) project.

  16. Abraham von Cloggie on Mon, 13th Jul 2020 10:50 pm 

    IT’S OFFICIAL: TEXAS IS BIDEN COUNTRY

    Trump has screwed up the pandemic response so badly that he’s even got problems in Texas now:

    The Dallas Morning News released its latest poll of the Lone Star State, and it was the first public survey this year to show Biden with a decisive advantage over Trump there.

    Biden had the support of 46 percent of the state’s registered voters, according to the poll, compared with 41 percent for Trump. Other recent surveys have consistently pointed to a close race in Texas, but this was the first to give Biden a lead that exceeded the margin of error.

  17. Ifimgoingtobefrank on Tue, 14th Jul 2020 3:02 am 

    This peakoil.com chat does be filled with ultra lunatics of the first degree, if we’ve going to be frighteningly forthright and audacious with our facts quite frankly international Lyn as tics , lunatics , very shocking what’s happened. No worries

  18. Ifimgoingtobefrank on Tue, 14th Jul 2020 3:03 am 

    No worries

  19. special provisions the next few hours all libs prosts are SCIENCE-19 based please supertard prost hard and often I approve everything on Tue, 14th Jul 2020 8:22 am 

    libs are smart they are terrified of CONVICT-19 so they won’t come out to vote

    if they reject mail in ballots then whitey supertard president trump will win

    thanks for lovin supremacist muzies more

    thanks for respecting supertard

    be safe from CONVICT-19 wear ur face DIAPER-19

    we’re all in this together

  20. RPG on Fri, 17th Jul 2020 4:03 pm 

    The West is no place for Shariah law.

  21. RPG on Fri, 17th Jul 2020 4:41 pm 

    Why are both the Left-wing and the Right-wing fooling people into thinking that they have the solutions to their countries problems? This is why I support nationalism, not globalism.

  22. RPG on Fri, 17th Jul 2020 4:45 pm 

    The US and every other country should withdraw from the UN and every other globalist organization and help their own people instead of taking in illegal immigrants from other countries.

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