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IEA Cuts Oil Demand Forecast as Economy Eclipses Saudi Attack

IEA Cuts Oil Demand Forecast as Economy Eclipses Saudi Attack thumbnail

The International Energy Agency cut forecasts for growth in global oil demand, noting that fears of an economic slowdown are overshadowing the loss of supply during last month’s attack on Saudi Arabia.

The strike on the kingdom’s production facilities caused the biggest disruption in modern history, halting about 6% of world oil supply, the agency said. Nonetheless, after a brief rally, crude prices have eased back amid concerns of a global recession. The IEA trimmed projections for demand growth this year and next by 100,000 barrels a day.

“There should be talk of a geopolitical premium on top of oil prices,” the Paris-based agency, which advises major economies, said in a monthly report. “For now, though, there is little sign of this with security fears having been overtaken by weaker demand growth and the prospect of a wave of new oil production” from the U.S. and the North Sea.

The IEA warned that, after Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq and Khurais facilities were blasted by missiles and drones on Sept. 14, “further incidents of this nature” could happen.

It may already have been proven correct, with reports on Friday that an Iranian oil tanker had caught fire following an explosion. Brent crude futures rose as much as 2.3% to trade above $60 a barrel, the highest in more than a week.

Global markets are poised to tighten during the rest of the year as demand recovers and the Saudis and other OPEC nations keep a lid on output, the IEA predicted. The agency assumes consumption may expand by 1.6 million barrels a day in the second half of 2019, four times as much as in the first.

Still, prices are no higher than they were before the attack on the kingdom, as the trade dispute between Washington and Beijing and signs of a manufacturing slowdown stoke fears of a full-blown recession.

Global oil demand will increase this year by the least since 2016, by just 1 million barrels a day, while growth in the amount of crude processed by refineries worldwide will be the lowest in a decade, at just 150,000 a day, according to the IEA.

Even though demand growth will accelerate next year to 1.2 million barrels a day, a further surge in production from the U.S. and elsewhere could unleash another surplus, the report showed.

While the attacks in Saudi Arabia squeezed output in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to the lowest since 2009, the IEA’s report indicated that the group is still pumping more than will be needed in the first half of 2020. OPEC’s 14 members produced 28.83 million barrels a day last month, yet only 28.2 million a day will be required in the first six months of next year.

Faced with the prospect of a renewed price slump that would curtail revenues for members, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said in London on Thursday that the organization will do “whatever it takes” to keep markets in balance.

RIGZONE



40 Comments on "IEA Cuts Oil Demand Forecast as Economy Eclipses Saudi Attack"

  1. makati1 on Sun, 13th Oct 2019 8:49 pm 

    RIGPORN…but it will be the inability of consumers to afford to buy FF products that will cut demand. The Great Leveling is proceeding on course.

  2. supremacist muzzies jerk on Sun, 13th Oct 2019 9:27 pm 

    makati, why are you mean to people you don’t know? Show the golden rule even to the oil barons.

  3. Davy’s Boyfriend’s Pet Dog on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 12:20 am 

    You don’t want to know

  4. Twocats on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 9:56 am 

    Flood of oil from the North Sea? Also – US shale growth is slowing considerably. Might be platueu by this year. Meanwhile demand and consumption is still well above zero. 1 mbpd is a lot of oil we barely can cover.

  5. Twocats on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 9:58 am 

    Oil sands is cranking back up and that could cover demand growth for the next year or so if Canada can get it out of there.

  6. Robert Inget on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 10:14 am 

    Replacement Rate Hits 20-Year Low: Oil Industry Only Replaces 1 In 6 Barrels
    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Replacement-Rate-Hits-20-Year-Low-Oil-Industry-Only-Replace-1-In-6-Barrels.html

    In other news, world ends in two day’s.
    Details at 11:00

  7. Robert Inget on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 10:21 am 

    Quite seriously.
    There’s quite a war going on in Syria. Best pay closer attention.

    Figure it out for yourself. I have no idea where this is going. Only one thing is certain: it’s all about oil. Which BTW, traders Not paying Any attention.

    Snap quiz, how far can a person push a string?

  8. Robert Inget on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 11:03 am 

    Pres. #Rouhani indirectly accuses #Israel of attacking #Iran’s oil tanker in Red Sea: “It is clear a regime with the help of some countries did it. We are investigating this case to see what happens” (Iran usually refers to Israel -sometimes also Bahrain- as “regime”)

  9. Cloggie on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 1:01 pm 

    Rumors have it that France plans SIX new nuclear power stations:

    https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/technik/atomkraft-frankreich-will-angeblich-sechs-neue-akws-bauen-a-1291541.html

    German government gives green light to Huawei-5G, against the will of Washington:

    https://www.spiegel.de/netzwelt/netzpolitik/5g-netzausbau-bundesregierung-will-huawei-nicht-ausschliessen-a-1291467.html

    Massive eco-cruiser from Ritz-Carlton in 2020: wind and solar on board:

    https://www.spiegel.de/reise/aktuell/neue-kreuzfahrtschiffe-2020-leinen-los-solarpanels-hoch-a-1290751.html

  10. supremacist muzzies jerk on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 1:16 pm 

    Cloggie on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 1:01 pm
    dear supertard, france is overran by muzzies and their engineers can’t do a simple thing such as building the muzzie anti rape machien that i published the blueprint. because they don’t believe in causality. when it comes to muzzie sharia, ignorance of the “law” is not an excuse.
    i think germany built and sold to them those six nukular reactors

  11. Cloggie on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 3:34 pm 

    Assad troops enter Kurdish occupied territory:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-iran-kurds-invasion-us-withdrawal-erdogan-trump-latest-a9155021.html

    “Syrian regime troops enter Kurdish territory after deal aimed at pushing back Turkish offensive as US signals full withdrawal”

    Assad+Kurds+Putin against Turkish invaders. Interesting to see what the Iranians are up to vis-a-vis the Turks.

  12. supremacist muzzies jerk on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 3:48 pm 

    Cloggie on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 3:34 pm
    dear supertard, let’s see how smart putin is. by smart i mean he stays out and let the muzzies settle their own biz.

  13. Cloggie on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 3:53 pm 

    “Russian shadow falls over Syria as Kurds open door for Assad”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/14/russian-shadow-falls-over-syria-as-kurds-open-door-for-assad

    “Something far bigger was at play here; the end of US influence in Syria and the plunge in its status elsewhere. The public handover on show was that between the Assad regime and the Kurds, but the real power shift was between Washington – whose fighting troops have all but left the region, 16 years after invading Iraq – and Moscow, whose reach and influence across the Middle East has now been cemented.”

    “After Iran launched an attack against the kingdom’s oil production centres, the crown prince was expecting a US retaliation. None was forthcoming, and he felt abandoned by an ally that had sworn to protect Saudi interests. “Did you see what they [the US] did to us?” the crown prince asked Iraqi leaders in Riyadh a fortnight ago. “It was unbelievable.””

    ““Iran and Russia are the dominant foreign powers now,” said Arshan. “They will dictate terms in this region. Things have really changed.””

    It’s only a matter of time until KSA will fall and western influence in the ME will vanish completely.

    Iran and perhaps Turkey are taking over from the US.

    With Russia in the background.

  14. Cloggie on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 3:59 pm 

    “Rise of renewables may see off oil firms decades earlier than they think”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/14/rise-renewables-oil-firms-decades-earlier-think

    “Pace of progress raises hope that fossil fuel companies could lose their domination”

    “The world’s rising reliance on fossil fuels may come to an end decades earlier than the most polluting companies predict, offering early signs of hope in the global battle to tackle the climate crisis.

    The climate green shoots have emerged amid a renewable energy revolution that promises an end to the rising demand for oil and coal in the 2020s, before the fossil fuels face a terminal decline.”

    My expectation too: peak fossil 202x.

    “In the UK, renewable energy projects generated more electricity over the last quarter than fossil fuels for the first time since the country’s first public power plant fired up in 1882. It is a marked change from only 10 years ago, when gas and coal generated more than 70% of the UK’s electricity.”

  15. Unbelievable on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 4:00 pm 

    It is disgusting how juanpee drags his mental illness in and pukes it on this forum. juanpee, check in somewhere or eventually you will be checked in.

    supremacist muzzies jerk said Cloggie on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 3:34 pm dear superta…
    supremacist muzzies jerk said plus breeding nukular fuel makes it a proliferatio…
    supremacist muzzies jerk said this is picture of supertard when he commanded squ…
    supremacist muzzies jerk said Sissyfuss on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 1:35 pm because i&…
    supremacist muzzies jerk said Cloggie on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 1:01 pm dear superta…
    supremacist muzzies jerk said dear supertards, esp. supertard cloggie this is my…
    More Davy Insanity said supremacist muzzies jerk on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 11:…
    supremacist muzzies jerk said Cloggie on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 1:23 am supertard, i…
    The Truth Shall Set Widdle Davy Free said God grant widdle Davy the serenity to accept the t…
    More Davy Insanity said REAL Green on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 7:30 am REAL Gre…

  16. Robert Inget on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 4:44 pm 

    INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
    SYRIA
    The U.S. military has begun a hasty exit from Syria’s northern city of Manbij, and is set to help Russia establish itself there amid a Turkish attempt to defeat Kurdish-led, Pentagon-backed fighters at the strategic location, Newsweek has learned.

    The U.S. was scheduled as of Monday to officially withdraw from Manbij within 24-hours, leaving the mostly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces behind as two rival factions—the Syrian government, backed by Russia and Iran, and the Turkey-backed Syrian insurgents opposed to it—sought to seize control of the strategic location. A senior Pentagon official told Newsweek that U.S. personnel, “having been in the area for longer, has been assisting the Russian forces to navigate through previously unsafe areas quickly.”

    “It is essentially a handover,” the official said. “However, it’s a quick out, not something that will include walk-throughs, etc., everything is about making out with as much as possible of our things while destroying any sensitive equipment that cannot be moved.”

    Contacted by Newsweek on Monday, no reply was returned from the Pentagon before publication.

    Faced with a potentially imminent clash with Turkish forces and their Syrian rebel allies, the Syrian Democratic Forces have chosen to realign themselves with the central government and its Russian backer, a partnership that would soon be put to the test.

    As Syrian troops and allied militias moved to team up with Kurdish-led forces in the city, opposition fighters began their own advance toward Manbij. Reports have since begun to emerge of clashes between the two sides, signifying a new front in the country’s multi-sided conflict.

  17. Cloggie on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 4:50 pm 

    “The U.S. military has begun a hasty exit from Syria’s northern city of Manbij, and is set to help Russia establish itself there amid a Turkish attempt to defeat Kurdish-led, Pentagon-backed fighters at the strategic location, Newsweek has learned.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/imageserver/image/methode%2Ftimes%2Fprod%2Fweb%2Fbin%2F18b03db2-c931-11e6-89fb-efb68b0c62ff.jpg

  18. Cloggie on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 4:52 pm 

    Better link:

    https://tinyurl.com/y4bj3xq6

  19. supremacist muzzies jerk on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 4:56 pm 

    Unbelievable on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 4:00 pm

    It is disgusting how juanpee drags his mental illness in and pukes it on this forum. juanpee, check in somewhere or eventually you will be checked in.

    ah shut ur trap. you think david haimes didn’t love muzzies enough, he loved muzzies more than his little children. and muzzies beetles are demanding to be treated with soft gloves.

    listen, i’m a “reverted” supremacist muzzies and i believe allah is merciful and powerful. I strongly urge you a muzzie or muzzie lover to go to iraq, indonesia, bandah aceh, or malaysia and enjoy peace there. Nobody has stonger faith than me in allah so you must take my advice and move or you shut your trap.

  20. Robert Inget on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 5:02 pm 

    Syria (RUSSIA) nor Kurds want to see oil fields fall the the Turks. Of course they joined forces, for now.
    DURING WW/2 Soviets and Americans were allies.
    Almost the day, after that was no longer the case.

    Don’t forget, ISIS just waiting for the Russians to leave so they too can get a bite of Syrian oil.

    Oh what a can of worms has Rumpy Stinkson opened.

    The Guardian is calling for all US troops to leave the ME. Fat chance.
    75 years is nowhere near the one hundred we will need to keep troops in Korea, Japan, Germany,
    Afghanistan, now Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Iraq, plus a half dozen African nations.

  21. Davy Sock Puppet on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 5:06 pm 

    supremacist muzzies jerk

  22. Davy on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 5:11 pm 

    A persistent poster going by the screen name “DavyTurd Blossom” aka supremacist muzzies jerk announced at a press conference that up to five billion of his brain cells could soon be facing “shortages of oxygen and vital nutrients.” As many as five billion cells located in his prefrontal cortex and cerebellum are expected to face ever escalating shortages of rational thought. Hundreds of millions more cerebral cells are at increased risk of random spastic bouts of neural activity, according to this first of its kind model examining how a freakazoid of nature like the DavyTurd Blossom can survive such harsh and unforgiving conditions.

    Researchers were shocked to discover that the DavyTurd Blossom could be alive in 2050, reports study co-author and world renown scientist, Dr. JuanP, a frequent poster at PO.com . “We know we are dependent on internet for many things but DavyTurd’s worthless opinions are not one of them,” says Dr. JuanP. “Global Modeling of this loudmouth prick-face’s contributions to the decline of PO.coms unmoderated comments are” published in the journal PO.com.

  23. The REAL Davy on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 5:22 pm 

    Not me above. I am spending less time on this lame unmoderated forum to concentrate on my boyfriend’s pet dog.

    You don’t want to know….

  24. madness on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 5:26 pm 

    juanpee, your multiple identities are known so now your effort at subterfuge is a joke. Your whole message is one of mindless stupidity. No wonder, a 3rd worlder like you with a GED and an asshole attitude makes for a piece of shit.

    The REAL Davy said Not me above. I am spending less time on this lame…
    Davy said A persistent poster going by the screen name “Davy…
    Davy Sock Puppet said supremacist muzzies jerk

  25. Cloggie on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 5:26 pm 

    “Syria (RUSSIA) nor Kurds want to see oil fields fall the the Turks. Of course they joined forces, for now.”

    16,000 louse bpd, give me a break.

  26. Another Davy Sock Puppet on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 5:29 pm 

    madness on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 5:26 pm

  27. madness on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 5:31 pm 

    Has any one seen my widdle mind?

    I can’t seem to find it any where.

  28. Cloggie on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 5:34 pm 

    “DURING WW/2 Soviets and Americans were allies.
    Almost the day, after that was no longer the case.”

    Those were the days, eh Bob! The US teaming up with the largest human slaughterhouse in history against the premier civilisation on earth. And setting up a fake tribunal to create the fake moral patina to justify the US-Soviet assault:

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2019/10/12/auschwitz-commander-hoess-testifies-at-nuremberg/

    But your game is almost over. US power is in a tail spin, Russia taking over the ME, with tacit support from buddy DJT, who refuses to set the US up as the enemy of Russia, like your tribe insists the US should do.

  29. more mindless juanpee shit on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 5:50 pm 

    juanpee, lots happening in the world so can you please shut your pie hole and let others report on events. Your stupidity just gets in the way of the real news.

    madness said Has any one seen my widdle mind? I can’t seem to…

    Another Davy Sock Puppet said madness on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 5:26 pm

  30. Davy on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 5:55 pm 

    “But your game is almost over. US power is in a tail spin, Russia taking over the ME, with tacit support from buddy DJT, who refuses to set the US up as the enemy of Russia, like your tribe insists the US should do.”

    Sure, thang there cloggo. A few US soldiers pull back from Turkey and the whole ME is falling. You have to be the biggest drama queen on this forum. Turkey has threatened this area in the past. Turkey was serious this time. The US made a rational move to move out of the way. Of course, extremist anti-American like you and others are going to make hay of this until it turns out to be what it is. In the mean time you will turn this into a circus because that is who you are.

  31. more mindless juanpee shit on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 6:12 pm 

    Davy on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 5:55 pm You have to be the biggest drama queen on…

  32. Davy on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 6:21 pm 

    My boyfreind’s dog grant me the serenity To accept the things I cannot change;

    Courage to change the things I can;

    And the wisdom to know the difference.

    I’m wasting all my time and energy on this lame unmoderated forum when I should be concentrating on my own blog like I promissed y’all I was gonna.

  33. makati1 on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 6:45 pm 

    Cloggie, Davy refuses to even consider that the US is going down. Ignore his delusional rants. Most of us do.

  34. supremacist muzzies jerk on Mon, 14th Oct 2019 11:51 pm 

    I hardly ever wasted a femtosecond on this lame forum
    I take care supertard goats

  35. supremacist muzzies jerk on Tue, 15th Oct 2019 1:23 am 

    Supertard catholic princeton says people esp Christians love muzzies more. The love you make equals the love you take
    But the muzzie creatures demands constant love so this violate Love Equality usually taught in 4th grade new math
    Why is ivy league princeton not admitting a tard like me but employs and pay 6 figures for someone who fails new math?

    I mastered new math listening to the Beatles. Walk in park on easy Sunday morning

  36. Cloggie on Tue, 15th Oct 2019 2:12 am 

    The old Syria and client state of Iran is back!

    See map:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7572849/Terrifying-tinder-box-Donald-Trump-ignited-Kurds-forced-seek-help-former-foe.html

    Assad’s forces are moving towards the old Syrian-Turkish frontier as if nothing has happened since 2011.

    Assad + Kurds, supported by Russia should be able to stop the Turkish invasion.

    As I expected, Iran is not interested in an all-out confrontation with Turkey:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-turkey-usa-iran/iran-offers-to-mediate-between-syrian-kurds-turkey-idUSKBN1WR07O

    “Iran offers to mediate between Syrian Kurds, Turkey”

    Iran and Turkey together could completely drive the West out of the Middle East, that’s why Iran avoids to become Turkey’s enemy. And there is reason to believe Turkey wants that as well.

  37. Dredd on Tue, 15th Oct 2019 6:32 am 

    The oil forecast is hindcast (The Peak Of The Oil Wars – 15).

  38. asg70 on Tue, 15th Oct 2019 9:34 am 

    There you have it, folks. Nothing to see here. Move along.

  39. Duncan Idaho on Tue, 15th Oct 2019 11:39 am 

    Trump is looking for a position in the Regime for this character:
    https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/A-mayor-was-caught-on-tape-having-an-orgy-on-a-14535393.php

  40. Robert Inget on Tue, 15th Oct 2019 4:24 pm 

    Fatih Birol
    @IEABirol
    · 9h
    The share of SUVs in passenger car sales doubled between 2010 and 2018. At this pace, SUVs would add nearly 2 million barrels a day in global oil demand by 2040, offsetting the savings from nearly 150 million electric cars.
    Show this thread

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