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Page added on March 7, 2020

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Huge Red Flag For Oil: Global Economic Growth Could Be Cut In Half

Consumption

A prolonged and wide-ranging coronavirus outbreak could cut global economic growth to just 1.5 percent this year, half the growth rate expected before the outbreak, and send Japan and the euro area into recession, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said on Monday.

A significant drop in global economic growth is very bad news for oil demand, which has already been depressed by the outbreak.

Yet, the OECD’s base-case scenario is that the outbreak would peak in China in Q1 2020 and outbreaks in other countries are mild and contained. In this event, global growth could be just 0.5 percent lower in 2020 compared to the projections the OECD made in November 2019, the organization said in its Interim Economic Assessment today.

In this scenario, “annual global GDP growth is projected to drop to 2.4% in 2020 as a whole, from an already weak 2.9% in 2019, with growth possibly even being negative in the first quarter of 2020,” OECD said.

However, if the outbreak lasts longer and spreads throughout Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America, this would materially weaken the global economy, with growth possibly dropping to just 1.5 percent in 2020, half the rate projected before the outbreak.

The coronavirus outbreak has significantly weakened near-term global economic prospects, but the OECD still sees a ‘contained outbreak’ as the base-case scenario.

However, the organization warns that downside risks remain significant and urged governments “to act swiftly and forcefully to overcome the coronavirus and its economic impact.”

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned last month that China’s growth could drop to 5.6 percent this year due to the coronavirus, down by 0.4 percentage points compared to the January estimate, while global growth would be about 0.1 percentage points lower than previous estimates.

“But we are also looking at more dire scenarios where the spread of the virus continues for longer and more globally, and the growth consequences are more protracted,” the IMF’s Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said.

As more and more countries started reporting coronavirus cases last week, oil prices plunged by 14 percent in a week as market participants fear a significant global economic slowdown and, by extension, weak global oil demand.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com



69 Comments on "Huge Red Flag For Oil: Global Economic Growth Could Be Cut In Half"

  1. Davy on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 7:01 am 

    Time to confess:

    Every day the PO.com gets worse. Millions of good posts are displaced by record-breaking insanity and socking, violent mood-swings and hot flashes. Unprecedented davy socking burns out of control, scorching massive tracts of articles and posts, and plunging nearby threads into surreal scenes of day-long darkness. Meanwhile, scientists solemnly inform us that any life at PO.com could be wiped out by mid-century, as the DavyScum continues to gradually transform the once vibrant areas of rich discussion into the spam and sock-filled graveyards of formerly sane and on-topic conservation. Try as we might… the consequences of davys unmoderated posts and rampant lunacy, are becoming harder and harder to ignore.

    It’s become widely accepted DavyScum, unfortunately, exists, and that his current rate of ass emissions are imperiling future discussions. Millions of people agree that davy is robbing our unborn descendants of their right to express comments and opinions contrary to ones only he approves of – something that davy foolishly takes for granted. This increasing awareness is translating into a growing consensus that our so-called ‘Davyturd’ needs a mental health intervention in order to fix his problems and correct his historic insanity. Unfortunately, most PO.com activists continue to be hampered by the fact that there is no moderation for extremists and there is no power operating in this forum, the scale of davys problem that we face… and what would actually be required to fix it. In Troubled PO.com, skumMedia takes a closer look at these dynamics, arguing for the importance of taking bold action to defend sane and coherent conversion, even as we work towards to overthrow of davys reign of terror and replacement of him with something more intelligent and polite, like an inert chuck of rock. or pile of goat-feces.

  2. Davy on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 7:01 am 

    You and juanPee are delusional fools, makato. The both of you have to struggle to find a brain cell between the two of you.

  3. Davy on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 7:02 am 

    [Davy lyrics]

    I feel scummy
    Oh, so scummy
    I feel scummy, and ugly and gay
    And I pity
    Any troll who isn’t me today

    I feel scummy
    Oh, so scummy
    It’s alarming how scummy I feel
    And so scummy
    That I hardly can believe I’m real

    See the scummy troll in that mirror there:
    Who can that scummy troll be?
    Such a lying face
    Such an ugly dress
    Such a hypocritical smile
    Such a scummy me!

  4. JuanP on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 7:04 am 

    I am JuanPee and I support this message:

    Time to confess:

    Every day the PO.com gets worse. Millions of good posts are displaced by record-breaking insanity and socking, violent mood-swings and hot flashes. Unprecedented juanPee socking burns out of control, scorching massive tracts of articles and posts, and plunging nearby threads into surreal scenes of day-long darkness. Meanwhile, scientists solemnly inform us that any life at PO.com could be wiped out by mid-century, as the JuanSkum continues to gradually transform the once vibrant areas of rich discussion into the spam and sock-filled graveyards of formerly sane and on-topic conservation. Try as we might… the consequences of juanSkum unmoderated posts and rampant lunacy, are becoming harder and harder to ignore.

    It’s become widely accepted JuanSkum, unfortunately, exists, and that his current rate of ass emissions are imperiling future discussions. Millions of people agree that juanPee is robbing our unborn descendants of their right to express comments and opinions contrary to ones only he approves of – something that JuanPee foolishly takes for granted. This increasing awareness is translating into a growing consensus that our so-called ‘juanturd’ needs a mental health intervention in order to fix his problems and correct his historic insanity. Unfortunately, most PO.com activists continue to be hampered by the fact that there is no moderation for extremists and there is no power operating in this forum, the scale of juanPee problem that we face… and what would actually be required to fix it. In Troubled PO.com, skumMedia takes a closer look at these dynamics, arguing for the importance of taking bold action to defend sane and coherent conversion, even as we work towards to overthrow of juanPee reign of insnaity and replacement of him with something more intelligent and polite, like an inert chuck of rock. or pile of 3rd world South American feces

  5. JuanP on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 7:05 am 

    I’m in Miami, Exceptionalturd. Who cares

    LMAO!

  6. Simon Says on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 7:06 am 

    Davy back to his old tricks of ID theft along with copying and pasting.

    What a waste case.

  7. REAL Green on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 7:08 am 

    Me n you and juanPee are a delusional fool, Davy. The three of us have to struggle to find a brain cell between ourselfs.

  8. REAL Green on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 7:10 am 

    “Energy Storage and our Unpredictable Future”
    https://tinyurl.com/yx3f9zlr resiliance
    “Civilizations both ancient and contemporary need practices that provide a sufficient Energy Return On Investment – but a high EROI is not sufficient cause for a technology or practice to come into wide use. Rather, we need complete socio-technical systems that provide the right combination of adequate EROI, and adequate and flexible energy storage.”

  9. REAL Green on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 7:11 am 

    There is basically a modern disconnect with the human existential predicament of being in a long-term carbon trap and a path dependency. This is systematic and it is a process which means it is self-organizing plus maladaptive. What this means is our civilization is techno optimistic with its narrative of growth and development but systematic forces are now on a gradient of destructive change with succession of complexity. This means complicated systems and networks will decay. Technology has continuously provided the growth needed to solve our continuing problems plus lifted many into more affluent lifestyles. This is now hitting limits both economic and planetary. Technology is hitting diminishing returns both physical and with affordability.

    It is the case if one looks at this the way our best minds do, that we can apply technology to solve future problems but they do this divorced from the reality of economics and the forces of systematic decline. These forces are grounded in planetary physics and human behavior beyond human control. This is the dysfunction of extreme specialization our best minds are trapped in. These systematic decline forces are huge but operate at planetary levels and global civilizational levels. Delocalization has destroyed planetary links of sustainability and resilience. Instead it is techno networks and systems that offer resilience and sustainability but this is a brittle arrangement based upon high energy and functioning complicated systems. The planet gives acquiescence to life but humans think we have control of our place in this through intelligence at the deepest level of our narratives.

    Human behavior is probably the biggest issue because it is likely both adaptive behavior and technology could be harness to give humans a survivable future but it would have to be one very different from today. Techno Capitalism that generate global value chains that drive vast production of good and also high tech cannot survive degrowth. Degrowth is a resulting force of planetary and systematic succession. Economies of scale across global value chains keeps our amazing system going. This arrangement of powerful productive forces is clashing and the results are a catch 22 situation that is delusionally ignored.

    It appears we will make some headway with technology and some behavior adapting but not enough to maintain higher affluence. It is likely at some point, and the virus might be the bubble popping, we are going to descend several levels down in affluence and with it population will have to fall. Too much population is supported by an affluent civilization. The key is the timing of all this. Maybe this virus kicks civilization out of its stupor with crisis. The crisis adapts behavior and a managed degrowth is undertaken where priorities of survival are embraced instead of wild ideas of a techno advance future of wonderful affluence.
    realgreenadaptation.blog

  10. JuanP on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 7:11 am 

    I am back to his old tricks of ID theft along with copying and pasting.

    I am a waste case.

  11. JuanP on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 7:12 am 

    I can’t handle this I am going insane!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  12. REAL Green on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 7:13 am 

    Me n you and juanP are a delusional fool, Davy. The three of us have to struggle to find a brain cell between ourself.

  13. Davy on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 7:13 am 

    Great, juanPee fucked the forum up. Good job dumbass

  14. REAL Green on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 7:17 am 

    COVID-19 in Missouri now.
    https://tinyurl.com/uwns6z5

    WE ALL GONNA DIE!!!

  15. JuanP on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 7:21 am 

    BTW look how bad it is in Florida where I live

  16. Sissyfuss on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 8:21 am 

    WTI is at $41 and change, Brent $45. These prices are unsustainable for most oil companies. The virus is going after the elderly and infirm. The bottleneck we have entered will not allow everyone through. The Long Emergency has arrived.

  17. makati1 on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 6:59 pm 

    “Russia’s stronger economy lets Putin stare down OPEC”

    https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/3/6/russias-stronger-economy-lets-putin-stare-down-opec

    “Five years of austerity and safeguarding assets against the threat of U.S. sanctions have left Russia in a stronger position than ever before to cope with lower oil prices. Putin’s plans to increase spending this year can go ahead regardless and a weaker ruble will only help the country’s commodity exporters, which sell their goods in dollars.”

    And the beat goes on…

  18. Donald Trump III on Mon, 9th Mar 2020 7:31 am 

    Bla,bla bla those Mohammedans can go bum shag each other, I dont give a toss

  19. JuanP on Mon, 9th Mar 2020 7:41 am 

    We need to start putting the jews in ovens again like the good old days, its the only way to move forward!

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