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Heinberg: Has oil peaked?

Heinberg: Has oil peaked? thumbnail

Last month, the world’s 4th largest oil company—BP—predicted that the world will never again consume as much petroleum as it did last year. So, have we finally hit peak oil? And if so, what does that mean for our economy and our world?

There was fierce controversy in the first decade of this century over claims by petroleum geologists and energy commentators that peak oil was imminent (I was a figure in that debate, writing several books on the topic). Most of those early claims were based on analysis of oil depletion and consequent supply constraints. BP, however, is talking about a peak in oil demand—which, according to its forecast, could fall by more than 10 percent this decade and as much as 50 percent over the next 20 years if the world takes strong action to limit climate change.

Source: PeakOilBarrel.com; production in thousands of barrels per day.

Numbers from the US Energy Information Administration’s Monthly Review tell us that world oil production (not counting biofuels and natural gas liquids) actually hit its zenith, so far at least, in November 2018, nearly reaching 84.5 million barrels per day. After that, production rates stalled, then plummeted in response to collapsing demand during the coronavirus pandemic. The current production level stands at about 76 mb/d.

Many early peak oil analysts predicted that the maximum rate of oil production would be achieved in the 2005-to-2010 timeframe, after which supplies would decline minimally at first, then more rapidly, causing prices to skyrocket and the economy to crash.

Those forecasters were partly right and partly wrong. Conventional oil production did plateau starting in 2005, and oil prices soared in 2007, helping trigger the Great Recession. Afterward, however, there was strong growth in production of >unconventional oil from deepwater wells and Canadian oil sands, and especially from tight oil (also referred to as shale oil) extracted by horizontal drilling and fracking. The US, whose petroleum production rate had been generally declining since the early 1970s, hit new all-time highs as tight oil gushed from North Dakota and Texas.

After 2010, the focus of the peak oil debate shifted from supply constraints to demand reduction. Electric cars and climate action, it was claimed, would limit the world’s usage of petroleum, leading to falling oil prices and the eventual failure of the oil industry.

Even though early peak oilers underestimated the rise of unconventional oil through the “magic” of easy credit, and thus miscalculated the timing of maximum overall production, they did improve the public’s energy literacy with two key observations:

  • Energy is overwhelmingly important. Energy flows are key factors in the development of both ecosystems and social systems. Mainstream economists make the mistake of considering energy merely as a component of GDP; in fact, the entire economy depends on energy. Further, nearly all modern manufacturing and distribution channels rely on fuels derived from petroleum.
  • The depletion of non-renewable resources (such as fossil fuels) proceeds according to the low-hanging-fruit principle. The highest-quality and easiest-to-get resources are usually harvested first. Therefore, supply constraints are likely to be felt long before resources are exhausted. With energy resources such as oil, more effort (i.e., energy) is continually required to find, extract, and process each new increment of production than was the case with the previous one, resulting in a gradually falling energy profit ratio (measured as energy returned on energy invested, or EROEI).

In retrospect, by focusing so much on the dynamics of production, peak oil analysts largely failed to elucidate the subtler relationships between oil demand and the larger economy. Following the Global Financial Crisis, as the world rate of conventional oil production flatlined and the rate of unconventional oil production soared, they realized they had missed two important points:

  • Commodity prices can give misleading signals with regard to future resource abundance. It had been assumed that petroleum depletion would inexorably lead to higher fuel prices. However, since world conventional oil production topped out 15 years ago, prices have seen all-time lows as well as all-time highs. If there is a general price trend at work, it seems to be for oil increasingly to become either too expensive for customers to afford, or too cheap to be profitable for producers. There is no longer a “Goldilocks” price that satisfies everyone. And that’s bad for both the global economy and for oil producers.
  • Oil production levels are driven not just by geology and technology, but also by investment—and that adds another source of predictive uncertainty. In the wake of the Great Recession, central banks (notably the US Federal Reserve) pumped enormous amounts of new money into the world financial system while also keeping interest rates at historically rock-bottom levels. Suddenly, small oil companies pursuing marginal tight oil plays, who had been insisting that shale oil was a potential bonanza, had the ears of investors who were flush with cash and looking for the “next big thing.” Those same companies were able to take on loads of debt at ultra-low interest rates. As it turned out, very little tight oil was produced profitably in the subsequent years. If normal financial conditions had prevailed, there likely would have been no US shale oil production boom. But conditions were anything but normal, and the boom was deafening—while it lasted. Then, just as the fracking frenzy was reaching its geological limits (more on that below), another seemingly unforeseeable event—the coronavirus pandemic—came along, crushing global oil demand almost instantaneously.

Between 30 and 40 small-to-medium-sized oil companies have gone bankrupt since the pandemic began; over a hundred more are teetering on the brink. The Fed has bought up $355 million in oil company debt to stanch the bleeding. Oil prices are currently stuck at about $40 per barrel. The industry says shale oil production would be profitable with prices above $50; but with all costs added in, the real break-even price is probably closer to $60, and higher still for many producers.

Meanwhile, Shell and BP are promising to go “carbon neutral,” mostly via their efforts to use captured carbon dioxide in enhanced oil recovery (analysis suggests this is, at best, merely a carbon accounting “shell game”). The oil companies are anticipating a slew of new climate regulations if Democrats prevail in the upcoming election; they evidently figure it’s time to give their business model a coat of green paint.

Some commentators suggest that, if the pandemic is resolved soon, planes will resume flying, business will return to normal, and oil demand will hit new highs. That scenario seems unlikely, not only because a full recovery anytime soon is unlikely, but also because oil supply constraints could reinforce demand limits in ways that will be hard for analysts to untangle. For example, the bankruptcy of the shale industry could help precipitate another financial crisis, thereby driving down oil demand. In the subsequent hand-wringing in the financial press, there would likely be relatively little reflection on the role of simple resource depletion in the complex chain of failures and defaults that followed.

The fracking business was always a bubble. Financially, it required low interest rates and a conveyor belt of gullible new investors. From a geophysics point of view, tight oil production could be described as an effort to scrape the bottom of the barrel. Post Carbon Institute has published a series of technical reports by Dave Hughes explaining that tight oil plays consist of bounded areas where residual oil is trapped in source rock with low permeability. Individual wells deplete quickly, so many new wells must continually be drilled and fracked at great expense if overall production rates are to be maintained. Moreover, plays are characterized by small “sweet spots” of concentrated resource, surrounded by lower-quality regions that will likely never be profitable to drill. And, for the most part, the sweet spots already have been tapped. At the risk of oversimplifying Hughes’s data and analysis, it’s probably fair to conclude that, even if the coronavirus pandemic hadn’t hit, US shale oil production would be peaking in the near future.

Fracking was an encore for the oil industry’s spectacular performance over the past century-and-a-half. But there isn’t likely to be a second curtain call, as customers are leaving the theater. For those customers—that is, for society as a whole—there will be consequences. If we were going to have anything like a seamless transition to a post-petroleum future, we should have started it a couple of decades prior to the peak. As it is, it’s going to be tough going. Industries that depend on petroleum (particularly aviation, shipping, industrial agriculture, and trucking), and industries that rely on those industries (including manufacturing and retailing) likely will be hard-pressed to regain their pre-pandemic vigor, and over time will have to adjust to ever-tightening global flows of fuel. As will the rest of us who like to shop, travel, and eat.

A new era has begun.

resilience



47 Comments on "Heinberg: Has oil peaked?"

  1. Cloggie on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 3:18 am 

    Fracking was an encore for the oil industry’s spectacular performance over the past century-and-a-half. But there isn’t likely to be a second curtain call, as customers are leaving the theater. For those customers—that is, for society as a whole—there will be consequences. If we were going to have anything like a seamless transition to a post-petroleum future, we should have started it a couple of decades prior to the peak.

    From the last sentence it is clear that Heinberg at least admits that there is a viable alternative for petroleum, an insight that sets him far ahead of the pack. Even on this board not a single American is enthusiastic about renewables, not even the smartest of them all, Theedrich. Amazing!

    For Europe this is good news, as we know from history that energy is the most crucial factor for geopolitical success.

    No Dutch Golden 17th Century without wind mills.

    No 19th century British Empire without James Kilowatthour, coal and steam.

    No 20th century American Empire without oil and gas.

    In Europe, incl. Britain, renewable energy is mainstream and that is why Europe will be ahead in geopolitics by a street length, while America is missing the boat big-time, because they want to hold on to old fossil glory and can’t imagine a future without it.

    So remember folks: renewable energy is an extension of fossil fuel, it is not dense enough, solar and wind are globally only at 2%. You’re right, it is not going to work!

    ROFL

    #EuropeLaughingAllTheWayToTheBank

  2. Davy on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 3:20 am 

    “Escobar: Shedding Light On The Limits Of Chinese Power”
    https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/shedding-light-on-the-limits-of-chinese-power/

    “Academic Lanxin Xiang is no fan of Trump’s China policies but also sees where Beijing has miscalculated and overreached… Everything about US-China hinges on the result of the upcoming US presidential election…For Xiang, “if Biden wins, the danger of a Cold War turning Hot War will be reduced dramatically.”… The problem is “the speed of China’s economic development led to hot headed, and premature, calculations. And a not well thought of strategy. ‘Wolf warrior’ diplomacy is an extremely assertive posture – and language. China began to upset the US – and even the Europeans. That was a geostrategic miscalculation.” And that brings us to what Xiang characterizes as “the overextension of Chinese power: geopolitical and geoconomic.” He’s fond of quoting Paul Kennedy: “Any great superpower, if overstretched, becomes vulnerable.” Xiang goes as far as stating that the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – whose concept he enthusiastically praises – may be overstretched: “They thought it was a purely economic project. But with such wide global reach?” So is BRI a case of overstretching or a source of destabilization? Xiang notes how, “Chinese are never really interested in other countries’ domestic policies. Not interested in exporting a model. Chinese have no real model. A model has to be mature – with a structure. Unless you’re talking about export of traditional Chinese culture.” The problem, once again, is that China thought it was possible to “sneak into geographical areas that the US never paid too much attention to, Africa, Central Asia, without necessarily provoking a geopolitical setback. But that is naiveté.”… Xiang’s main thesis is that “legitimacy in Chinese tradition political philosophy is a dynamic question. To transplant Western political values to the Chinese system does not work.” Yet even as the Chinese concept of legitimacy is dynamic, Xiang stresses, “the Chinese government is facing a legitimacy crisis.” He refers to the anti-corruption campaign of the past four years: “Widespread official corruption, that is a side-effect of economic development, bringing out the bad side of the system. Credit to Xi Jinping, who understood that if we allow this to continue, the CCP will lose all legitimacy.” Xiang stresses how, in China, “legitimacy is based on the concept of morality – since Confucius. The communists can’t escape the logic.”

  3. Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 3:37 am 

    “Escobar: Shedding Light On The Limits Of Chinese Power”

    Wow, even China-fan and US-detractor Escobar admits that China won’t be the next geopolitical hegemon. The largest economy in terms of GDP-PPP, yes, but not militarily or scientifically or in technical innovation.

    From the same source:

    https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/definitive-eurasian-alliance-is-closer-than-you-think/

    Definitive Eurasian alliance is closer than you think

    Beijing-Moscow is already on; Berlin-Beijing is a work in progress; the missing but not distant link is Berlin-Moscow

    Touche!

    Nord Stream 2 and Navalny false flag are a rear guard fight in an attempt to set up Europe against Russia, to the benefit of the US. It will fail.

    Europe, Russia and China have a common interest and that is ticking the US off from geopolitical pole position and take its place. See it as 100 m sprint at the Olympics. “We may have lost last year, but the cards have been dealt anew and lets see where we get this year”, say the silver and bronze medal winners of last year.

    Everybody knows that the US is running out of geopolitical steam and that the 100 year old US ambition of attempting to “integrate” the entire world in a singe tax farm, administered from Washington is going to fail miserably. Their smart kosher owners have already admitted as much:

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2019/01/07/the-good-news-zog-is-dying/

    The vassals in Europe have woken up and smelled the coffee:

    https://www.rt.com/news/387313-us-losing-leadership-eu-mogherini/

    “‘US losing world leadership, Europe can replace it’ – EU top diplomat Mogherini”

    And they and Escobar are right of course.

    https://tinyurl.com/y6kcuhjx

  4. Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 3:45 am 

    If Macron has sufficient courage he will destroy any deal with the UK next week and play the Eurasian card as per Pepe Escobar:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8825355/Britain-EU-leaders-agree-Brexit-trade-mini-deals.html

    “Britain and EU leaders agree on Brexit trade ‘mini-deals’ amid fears ‘short fuse’ Emmanuel Macron could blow up trade deal at crunch summit next week”

    The correct EU strategy must be to set an example with Britain, push them in a no-deal, which could lead to Scottish independence, Irish unification and the end of 500 years of British anti-continental European policies. Expect the English to come to their European senses, after the preferred ally US sinks further away in social chaos and let a pro-EU Labor politician like Starmer bring England back, at least to the EU Common Market, this time without any compromise, special status, rebates, whatsoever. No need to revoke Brexit. Go play empire in Anglo-Canada if you have to.

  5. Davy on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 4:03 am 

    “If Macron has sufficient courage he will destroy any deal with the UK next week and play the Eurasian card as per Pepe Escobar”

    cloggo, there is no Eurasia card. That is a fantasy filter in your mind you read into all news. I am not saying that is not a force of policy just not your overarching policy. Asia is too big for a common policy. Too many competing players. If Europe has a Eurasian outlook it is one of many. You are just a simpleton of race and politics. This happens with people like you with agendas. You have to put on a straightjacket for your fantasy to have traction and the result is constant failure of your predictions.

  6. Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 4:30 am 

    “cloggo, there is no Eurasia card.”

    Escobar says there is and you are posting articles by him. Make up your mind about the credibility of Escobar. Cherry-picking from him is not credible.

    Meanwhile in the real world:

    https://www.rt.com/op-ed/503084-america-civil-war-election/

    “America on cusp of a Civil War: No matter who wins the election, there will be no peaceful transfer of power”

    Says not some Neonahtzi from Europe or a Chinaman-737-mad-max but an American official.

    Scott Ritter
    is a former US Marine Corps intelligence officer and author of ‘SCORPION KING: America’s Suicidal Embrace of Nuclear Weapons from FDR to Trump.’ He served in the Soviet Union as an inspector implementing the INF Treaty, in General Schwarzkopf’s staff during the Gulf War, and from 1991-1998 as a UN weapons inspector.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-eu-exclusive/exclusive-china-presses-europe-for-anti-u-s-alliance-on-trade-idUSKBN1JT1KT

    “Exclusive: China presses Europe for anti-U.S. alliance on trade”

    https://parisberlinmoscow.wordpress.com/2020/04/23/russian-eu-ambassador-offers-europe-unlimited-cooperation/

    “Russian EU Ambassador Offers Europe “Unlimited Cooperation””

    Europe has more potential friends than the US, aka the destroyer of the European Empires.

  7. Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 4:41 am 

    Yara of Norway and Orsted of Denmark are willing to build a hydrogen factory based on electrolysis in the Zeeland-province in the Netherlands to the tune of 100 MW, by far the largest in the world. The plant should be operational by 2024-2025.

    https://www.wattisduurzaam.nl/29628/energie-opslaan/waterstof/yara-en-orsted-investeren-co2-in-ontwikkeling-waterstofeconomie/

    “Yara en Ørsted investeren CO2 in ontwikkeling waterstofeconomie”

    Initially the plant will be driven by electricity from the grid and as such INCREASE CO2-emissions.

    However there is a catch: Yara and Orsted want subsidy and European rules demand that any subsidy should not be used for any process that increases CO2-emissions.

    Obviously this would be short-sighted and a case of chicken-and-egg. If you want a green hydrogen economy, you will need a lot electrolyzer installations, so you should build them, subsidize them in order to achieve economy of scale. If that means a temporary increase of emissions, so be it. Stalin was right: you can’t make an omelet without breaking an egg.

  8. REAL Green Hypocrite on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 5:57 am 

    Some things never change…..

    Including the pyscho-fuck Davy/Real Green Hypocrite.

    Positively revolting.

  9. Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 6:21 am 

    Corona-crisis, what crisis?

    https://www.ed.nl/eindhoven/regio-knalt-door-ondanks-coronaklap-rabobank-ziet-juist-meer-bedrijfsinvesteringen-en-hypotheken-br~ad06030d/

    Eindhoven and East-Brabant, my home-base, couldn’t care less. Investment in 2020 is higher than in top year 2019. Apart from a few cafes and hotels is nobody interested in Corona-loans. Record sums are on the accounts of corporations and private households.

    Eindhoven, the next Silicon Valley.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJq-3FCPqRM

    https://www.ed.nl/eindhoven/vergeet-silicon-valley-kom-naar-eindhoven~a391421b/

    “Forget Silicon Valley, come to Eindhoven”

    Eindhoven tries to attract American guest workers.

    https://globaldelta.nl/why-the-netherlands-is-the-new-silicon-valley/

    “Why the Netherlands is the new Silicon Valley”

  10. zero juan on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 7:49 am 

    The lunatic JuanP is wounded an triggered. The troll hates to be trolled and the stalker hates to be stalked. Welcome to HELL mentally ill troll:

    This is JuanP noise:

    Adriano said all lies

    REAL Green Hypocrite said Some things never change….. Including the py…

    I also outed JuanP suxs on the moderated side. Not har to figure out this low IQ high school drop out:

    Re: Pat Buchanan: America in worst decline since Soviet Unio
    Postby REAL Green » Sat 10 Oct 2020, 07:45:21

    suxs wrote:
    “WOW, the scandal deepens.”
    This brought to you by a “REAL” Green unimpeachably agenda-driven source. For the truth, NOT. Then again, since when has RG allowed facts to get in the way of his truth.
    Some things never change.

    REAL Green wrote:
    JuanP suxs, you have already been outed as a JuanP sock so your comment is irrelevant besides where is your backup support. There is none.

  11. Davy on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 9:13 am 

    “Welcome to HELL mentally ill troll:”

    This is a lame unmoderated Internet forum. Nothing more. Nothing less.

    dumbass

  12. zero juan on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 9:21 am 

    widdle juanPPee is triggered today. Trolls hate to be trolled. PPee, you fucked with the wrong guy. LMFAO

    From JuanP:
    Davy said “Welcome to HELL mentally ill troll:” This is a la…

  13. Davy on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 9:26 am 

    So true zero juan. So true.

    LOFDAO!

  14. who can harvest SAN FRANCISCO: Indian-American running for mayor is being smeared by CAIR for refusing to attend a CAIR-sponsored candidates forum on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 9:39 am 

    u know the story

  15. NK would be better handling amputation of whitey supertard thunderf00t Nuclear-armed Kim Jong Un shows off a 'monster' new 'intercontinental' ballistic missile and claims his country is 'coronavirus free' in speech to huge military parade in Nor on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 10:19 am 

    North Korea

    they’re convict-19 free

  16. whitey supertard president trump used low english on muzz f them up low english speakers are smart on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 10:58 am 

    i was the first to do comprehensive study of low english speakers and concluded whitey supertard trump as smartest

    he also passed the alzheimer test that whitey supertard president biden refuse to take

    i don’t think i can pass that test with perfect score either

  17. zero juan on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 1:00 pm 

    Widdle juan, if you are wondering you are not funny but instead stupid:

    whitey supertard president trump used low english on muzz f them up low english speakers are smart said i was the first to do comprehensive study of low e…

    NK would be better handling amputation of whitey supertard thunderf00t Nuclear-armed Kim Jong Un shows off a ‘monster’ new ‘intercontinental’ ballistic missile and claims his country is ‘coronavirus free’ in speech to huge military parade in Nor said North Korea they’re convict-19 free

    who can harvest SAN FRANCISCO: Indian-American running for mayor is being smeared by CAIR for refusing to attend a CAIR-sponsored candidates forum said u know the story

    Davy said So true zero juan. So true. LOFDAO!

    only master race chinese can harvest master cult muzz Army troops and police arrested Rezky Fantasya Rullie with two Filipino women, who were suspected to be the wives of Abu Sayyaf militants, in a house in southern Jolo town in Sulu province wh said master race chinese are very smart only smart mast…

  18. ANSEL ANAL RAPIST whitey supertard president trump took off face panties and said prayers worked of coruse even a dumb tard and former paultard see this ofcourse (((supremetard))) always help on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 1:49 pm 

    only dumb people would say convict-19 is around

    who is the daddy? to answer this question u have to go back to see who immediately called for amputation during the first week of convict-19.

    all hope on NK to amputate this whitey supertard. they do well at these kind of things

  19. ANSEL ANAL RAPIST whitey supertard president trump took off face panties and said prayers worked of coruse even a dumb tard and former paultard see this ofcourse (((supremetard))) always help on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 1:52 pm 

    all hope on NK to amputate whitey supertard atheistic scientific supremacist thudnerf00t

    ask urself if someone who speaks high british english exclusively does he love muzzies, of course he does

    when this supertard went on self imposed quarantine during first week of convict-19 i immedately called for amputation because i said it smells

    amputation means string this supertard up and slice off the limbs at the joints

  20. ANSEL RAPIST ANAL How Do You Solve A Problem Like Tamimi? on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 1:57 pm 

    send in special forces to roast the muzzie
    then give carcass to the navy to bury this muzzie at sea according to muzzie custom but it’s not a muzzie

    this muzzie is a muzzie
    this muzzie is not a muzzie

    just one division of chinese troop can harvest all top muzzies, the rest will check themselves at muzzie amputation machines with the gate labeled “victims”

  21. whitey supertard president heinberg was the first who taught me about PO he had this book out the party is over on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 10:19 pm 

    i bought it in an obsccure section of the university book store back then

    he looks like a lib. i’m sure he’s one of those who purchased all lib urns and that’s why this christmas i’ll again be one bearing no gift

    i need to buy just one lib urn

  22. just relax youse guyes we are all supremacist muzzies lovers here we love to suckle muzzie coq on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 10:56 am 

    Pakistan: Biscuit ad banned for being ‘against Islam,’ and ‘people across the country are scared’

    Why are people across the country scared? Because at least some of those who are enraged over this biscuit ad think that something they perceive as un-Islamic is worse than committing murder over something they perceive as un-Islamic.

  23. Burkino Faso: Muslims ambush convoy carrying displaced civilians, murder 25 of them on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 10:57 am 

    muzz

  24. zero juan on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 12:21 pm 

    the lunatic widdle juanPee is depressed lately and unable to post much. It is nice when he is depressed.

    Burkino Faso: Muslims ambush convoy carrying displaced civilians, murder 25 of them said muzz

    just relax youse guyes we are all supremacist muzzies lovers here we love to suckle muzzie coq said Pakistan: Biscuit ad banned for being ‘against Isl…

    zero davy said The mental midget Davy morning whine: “I wish the…

  25. Anonymous on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 1:10 pm 

    Heinberg, and some like David Hughes that he touts, have miserable records on predicting peak oil. Even as the tight oil (and gas) ramp was well underway, they underpredicted growth over and over. That shows a sign of bias, not of analysis.

  26. makati1 on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 5:11 pm 

    But Anon, who could have predicted the Fed doing everything impossible to keep Wall Street alive for the last 12 years? Or the current flu bullshit? I cannot down someone for being wrong about those things, including peak oil, as everyone else was. His assumptions were based on rational decisions, based on facts and the past. Nothing has been rational in the case of finances or economies for the past 12 years, since 2008.

    And, we are all bias in many things. Have a great day!

  27. JuanP on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 5:24 pm 

    Mak, that is not our Anon, that is Nony. Mak, you really are getting like Biden

  28. makati1 on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 5:25 pm 

    Davy, pretending to be JuanP doesn’t work. You are too obvious. LOL

  29. Cloggie on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 6:08 pm 

    Mak, that is not our JuanP, that is the delusional nutter davy. He really is getting like Nony.

  30. makati1 on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 7:19 pm 

    Cloggie, He went over the edge years ago and I am sure this “flu” bullshit just made it worse as he cannot get to the mental clinic often enough or even leave his goat swamp…er…farm.

  31. Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 7:54 pm 

    Mak, sorry wrong Cloggie above. Must have been one of our other board clowns impersonating me.

  32. I AM THE MOB on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 7:56 pm 

    They are totally going nuts AF over this hoax

    Socially distancing prom
    https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/bizarre-socially-distanced-prom-shows-teens-dancing-back-back

  33. I AM THE MOB on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 7:57 pm 

    Oil has peaked!

    Its game over!

    Bring on the collapse!

    NWO is just BULLSHIT FOR WALL STREET

  34. I AM THE MOB on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 7:58 pm 

    The great harvesting is almost here!

    Goodbye China!

    Trump FTW!

    Swish!

    4 more years!

  35. Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 11:16 pm 

    Mak, sorry wrong Abraham above. Must have been one of my other board clowns impersonating me.

  36. makati1 on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 11:46 pm 

    MOB, can’t you afford that 22 bullet to end your misery?

    China is moving up. Amerika is sliding down.

    Your delusions are over-riding your ability to read and comprehend…if you ever had one.

  37. supertard makkat is right only master race china can harvest master cult muzz on Tue, 13th Oct 2020 12:01 am 

    makati1 on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 11:46 pm

    MOB, can’t you afford that 22 bullet to end your misery?

    China is moving up. Amerika is sliding down

  38. Abraham van Helsing on Tue, 13th Oct 2020 12:46 am 

    Stolen nicks again, whatever, more proof of a US going down because of too many clowns and too few competents left.

    https://www.wattisduurzaam.nl/27578/energie-opwekken/wind/een-windpark-van-1-400-megawatt-met-slechts-100-windmolens/

    Germany to build 1400 MW offshorewindpark “Sofia” at the Doggersbank in the North Sea. Using the new Siemens-Gamesa 14 MW machines, you only need 100 of those.

  39. zero juan on Tue, 13th Oct 2020 3:02 am 

    Idiot JuanP and his nonsense:

    supertard makkat is right only master race china can harvest master cult muzz said makati1 on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 11:46 pm MOB, can’t…

    Abraham van Helsing said Mak, sorry wrong Abraham above. Must have been one…

    Netherlands: Six Muslims plot jihad massacre at festival, along with car bombing said muzz

    muzzie died like a dog said everyone together speak low english muzzie died li…

    Cloggie said Mak, that is not our JuanP, that is the delusional…

    JuanP said Mak, that is not our Anon, that is Nony. Mak, you…

    FamousDrScanlon said Civil war would be so much fun cause only the bad…

  40. I AM THE MOB on Tue, 13th Oct 2020 5:12 am 

    Mak1

    US sent 60 spy planes close to China in September: Beijing think tank
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3105279/us-sent-60-spy-planes-close-china-september-beijing-think-tank

    Goodbye Red China! You masked bastards!

    THE FINAL SOLUTION IS NEAR!

  41. zero davy on Tue, 13th Oct 2020 5:28 am 

    Idiot Davy and his nonsense:

    supertard makkat is right only master race china can harvest master cult muzz said makati1 on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 11:46 pm MOB, can’t…

    Abraham van Helsing said Mak, sorry wrong Abraham above. Must have been one…

    Netherlands: Six Muslims plot jihad massacre at festival, along with car bombing said muzz

    muzzie died like a dog said everyone together speak low english muzzie died li…

    Cloggie said Mak, that is not our JuanP, that is the delusional…

    JuanP said Mak, that is not our Anon, that is Nony. Mak, you…

    FamousDrScanlon said Civil war would be so much fun cause only the bad…

  42. makati1 on Tue, 13th Oct 2020 6:15 am 

    MOB, and your point is? China has satellites watching you 24/7/365. Does that mean anything? Russia files over the US several times a year.They also fly along the US coast many times annually. So? Tell me what you think that means?

    https://time.com/4895574/open-skies-treaty-russia-surveillance-plane/
    https://www.foxnews.com/us/russian-aircraft-flying-over-us-as-part-of-treaty-on-open-skies-obligations
    https://ezinearticles.com/?Why-is-China-Flying-Spy-Satellites-Over-the-US?&id=2810021

    Nothing new here.

  43. I AM THE MOB on Tue, 13th Oct 2020 3:19 pm 

    Microsoft lets employees work from home permanently

    https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/9/21508964/microsoft-remote-work-from-home-covid-19-coronavirus?fbclid=IwAR1DoKMljSk4yoXoP84BTuYkuMfmH2-Qy2LIHaQ4A97lvCIbPrDbpDvC9zc

    This isn’t about a virus. its about the oil is almost gone!

    NUKE CHINA! WIPE THEM OFF THE FUCKING MAP! FULL BLOWN GENOCIDE! THE FINAL SOLUTION

  44. I AM THE MOB on Tue, 13th Oct 2020 3:41 pm 

    Check out the new US Military Badges

    “Agile Reaper 2020”

    Overlooking red china

    https://imgur.com/a/ErBxicz

    BYE BYE!

  45. Antius on Thu, 15th Oct 2020 10:35 am 

    ‘From the last sentence it is clear that Heinberg at least admits that there is a viable alternative for petroleum, an insight that sets him far ahead of the pack. Even on this board not a single American is enthusiastic about renewables, not even the smartest of them all, Theedrich. Amazing!’

    Cloggie, has it occured to you that the same monetary forces that created the boom in production for low EROI tight oil over the past dozen years, may also be responsible for the surge in low EROI renewable energy capacity?

    Zero interest loans or free QE money poured into RE manufacturing and then zero interest loans used to purchase and install the infrastructure.

    Heinburgs point is that gooseing the money system allowed otherwise unprofitable ventures to appear sustainable for a while, so long as one was prepared to ignore the dangerous inblanances that it created. It created the illusion of a technical revolution in both the shale and RE sectors.

    I don’t expect you to like that conclusion.

  46. Cloggie on Thu, 15th Oct 2020 12:54 pm 

    “Cloggie, has it occured to you that the same monetary forces that created the boom in production for low EROI tight oil over the past dozen years, may also be responsible for the surge in low EROI renewable energy capacity?”

    I do not agree that EROI of solar and wind, as per technology-state-of-affairs of 2020 is a crucial factor. Also I don’t share the “financialized” view of things.

    My position is that the majority of society wants a green transition, there is no real lack of materials to build that infrastructure and people are standing by to assemble the stuff into working gear. The amount of money required to get the job done can be adapted to circumstances, like paying lower wages because of the Covid crisis.

    I never said that there is going to be a frictionless transition, I don’t know at what energy/capita levels we will end up after completion of the transition. What I do know is that renewable energy has sufficient potential to create a society that is not way below what we have now. Perhaps private car-ownership will disappear. But so what? Thanks to Covid we now know for a fact that an IT-infrastructure can largely replace the old model of commuting 5 times to the office per week.

    In the Netherlands in the seventies, we used 3 times less electricity than we do today. We were already happy then.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sj_9CiNkkn4

    Very few people flew in airplanes.

    But I think hat in the coming 30 years we will do better than Netherlands-1970, energy-wise.

    I wouldn’t mind a new fifties.

  47. Davy on Thu, 15th Oct 2020 1:40 pm 

    “I do not agree that EROI of solar and wind, as per technology-state-of-affairs of 2020 is a crucial factor. Also I don’t share the “financialized” view of things.”

    That’s because there are inconvenient to your narrative that has holes in it.

    “My position is that the majority of society wants a green transition, there is no real lack of materials to build that infrastructure and people are standing by to assemble the stuff into working gear.”

    Sure there is cloggo, it is called limits to growth and we see it everywhere. Some of this green transition will get built out but not the amount you fancy. The hard part is ahead BTW when storage, transport and home heating markets are penetrated.

    “What I do know is that renewable energy has sufficient potential to create a society that is not way below what we have now.”

    BS, the potential is way bellow unless you are honest and understand ffs will play a part until the whole party shuts down.

    “In the Netherlands in the seventies, we used 3 times less electricity than we do today. We were already happy then.”

    Not a good comparison because ff’s were cheaper than and there were less people. How do you price happiness BTW?

    “I wouldn’t mind a new fifties.”

    I agree but that ideal is not very relent with so many people on this planet. It is more like the 20s

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