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Page added on January 3, 2019

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Has oil’s demise been greatly exaggerated?

Consumption

I often speak to people who are concerned about how long the oil industry will last and have the misconception that its demise is just around the corner.

This is very far from the truth and I think comes from two factors, that oil price has been below the heady days of $100/bbl for some time and confusion between electricity and energy.

Since the oil price drop in 2013 the world has increased its oil consumption every year.  In 2013 we consumed around 91 million barrels a day and now it’s about 97 million barrels a day and unless something very dramatic happens, this trend will continue for the near future.   I expect that on the current evolution to cleaner energies peak world oil consumption is about 15 to 20 years away.  Most of the increase in demand comes from the developing world driven by improving living standards and population increases.  In the western world we have nearly reached peak demand mainly due to improved efficiencies but also due to a growing substitution of cleaner fuels starting to have an effect.

There is plenty of oil around to meet this demand so oil basins around the world are going to have to be able to produce at competitive prices or will lose out.  In the UK there are several initiatives from the OGA and others enabling this, but the main driver will be technology.  We need to find more efficient ways to produce our oil if we want to remain a significant producer for the next few decades.

The other reason for misconception that oil is on its death bed is the confusion between energy and electricity.  We have all seen commentators in the media, including our politicians, saying Scotland supplied all its energy from renewable sources.  In fact what they mean is we produced all our electricity from renewable sources.  Unfortunately, electricity is a relatively small element of our energy usage, in the UK a little less than a fifth, low on a world scale as we use gas extensively for heating.  Most of the rest of our energy needs are still fulfilled by fossil fuels, over 70% of the total.

If we want to reduce our carbon footprint then we need to convert end users to electricity generated from renewable sources or use a clean fuel like Hydrogen where Aberdeen leads the way.   The way getting most traction is going to electric cars with Scotland being committed to stop selling combustion engine driven cars by 2032 and the UK by 2040.  This is no small undertaking as to convert all cars to electricity will require close to doubling our electricity generating capacity, lots of windmills, and substantially upgrading the grid.  Large investments and a flood of planning applications required, hope they are approved more quickly that our offshore windfarm.

If we go for Hydrogen, we still need the windfarms, to make the hydrogen renewably, and a network of Hydrogen fuelling stations covering the country, another massive investment which I think unlikely in addition to the infrastructure for electric vehicles.  So Hydrogen will be limited to vehicles making or working locally around a limited number of fuelling stations, like the buses here in Aberdeen.

So even with the renewable energy supply evolving oil is still going to be around for many years to come unless the world gets a catastrophic wakeup call on the impact of global warming and evolution turns to revolution and things are forced to change more rapidly.

energy voice



66 Comments on "Has oil’s demise been greatly exaggerated?"

  1. Peakerhead juanP on Fri, 4th Jan 2019 4:57 pm 

    Davy on Fri, 4th Jan 2019 4:07 pm
    Davy on Fri, 4th Jan 2019 4:01 pm

  2. Veaginahead Davy on Fri, 4th Jan 2019 5:56 pm 

    Peakerhead juanP on Fri, 4th Jan 2019 4:57 pm

  3. Antius on Fri, 4th Jan 2019 6:37 pm 

    How do you prove a negative, ie, that millions were not gassed at German concentration camps?

    I think a good first question would be: are there clearly identifiable, purpose-built gas chambers at Auschwitz that can be dated to WW2? If the answer is yes, then the idea of mass gassing is quite plausible. If the answer is no; then the idea of mass extermination becomes suspect.

  4. I AM THE MOB on Fri, 4th Jan 2019 9:03 pm 

    CLogg

    You are like flat eather..A total moron..Another stupid boomer who inhaled too much lead in their gasoline for decades..It has lowered your already naturally low IQ..

    lol

  5. I AM THE MOB on Fri, 4th Jan 2019 9:04 pm 

    KILL ALL WHITES

    https://i.redd.it/x4guoxzfuh821.jpg

    Just wait until the global riots hit when the global oil shortage comes in a few years..It will be payback time for whitey..

  6. makati1 on Fri, 4th Jan 2019 10:04 pm 

    Global riots MOB? Why? Only the wealthy will feel the pinch. That includes most Americans. Even the poorest American is wealthy compared to half the world’s population. Americans use over TWO GALLONS of oil per person daily. Much of the world uses !/10th that or less. Who will miss oil the most? Hint: AMERICANS!

    The oil shortage will be managed by the price of oily stuff. It will not just disappear. It may take decades to get to the point where there is none available. By that time, the US will not exist as a 1st world country. It will be 3rd world, or worse. Be patient.

  7. Cloggie on Fri, 4th Jan 2019 10:11 pm 

    “How do you prove a negative, ie, that millions were not gassed at German concentration camps?”

    Forensic research. Scratching samples from walls from alledged gas chambers and test for presence of cyanid. Has already been done by American gas chamber expert Fred Leuchter and later repeated by Germar Rudolf. In both cases: negative. Control samples from clothing fumugation gas chambers did show cyanid in ambundance. Additionally an Australian team did ground penetrating radar research in Treblinka in order to verify the official claim that 800,000 people were gassed, buried, dug up again and burned. Result: soil hadn’t been touched since the last ice age.

    That’s all the proof you need to know that the hoax is a hoax.

    http://www.fpp.co.uk/Auschwitz/Leuchter/ReportIntro.html

    https://youtu.be/UcyX858DLbA

    https://youtu.be/SKm-wxIsX9E

  8. Cloggie on Fri, 4th Jan 2019 10:27 pm 

    “KILL ALL WHITES”

    This is general jewish, deep state “neocon” thinking.

    https://youtu.be/q90kmUbEv7c

    These people lord over us whites since 1945. Should give you a clear idea of the situation white Americans are in. They are facing the same horrors Russians were in after 1917, when Russia fell into the hands of the jews, with devastating consequences.

    https://youtu.be/-pDtgWUtdUM

    Since 1965, after they killed JFK first, the jews have been busy importing as many third worlders into the US as possible for no other purpose than to import a proletariate with which they hope to instigate a neo-bolshevik revolution-of-color on North-American soil.

    Most depressing is that none of the Americans here will lift a finger against this mobster criminal and his very real death threats against them. Lameness and depression and cluelessness whereever you look.

  9. Davy on Sat, 5th Jan 2019 4:37 am 

    “Americans use over TWO GALLONS of oil per person daily. Much of the world uses !/10th that or less. Who will miss oil the most? Hint: AMERICANS!”

    Pretty simplistic look at the issue makatiii but we would expect that out of you. Not much though goes into your comments except is it bad USA and good my team. For one there are population levels and class structure. There is economic activity that both “sides” are dependent on. For example is the USA stopped producing food for export and importing specialty foods Americans don’t need there would be a global crisis. Your P’s is a prime example of a country importing to maintain its overshoot. Around 1900 the place was sustainable at 10MIL people. You are 90MIL in the red.

  10. Anonymouse on Sat, 5th Jan 2019 5:06 am 

    Thats nothing, Davyturd uses two gallons of Kaopectate per day, in an effort to control his verbal diarrhea. Without much to show for it I might add. Is his current level of colon control oil use sustainable? Probably not.

  11. Cloggie on Sat, 5th Jan 2019 6:45 am 

    Quite the wellness institution:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6557827/Holocaust-survivors-live-average-seven-years-longer-Jewish-people-avoided-death-camps.html

    “Holocaust survivors live an average seven years longer than other Jewish people because they had to be tough to survive”

    Few people know that in the Schwitz there was a swimming pool:

    https://furtherglory.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/auschwitzpool.jpg?w=489&h=327

    a camp orchestra:

    http://www.whale.to/b/90ij.jpg

    a camp library:

    https://holocaustdeprogrammingcourse.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/dachau-library.jpg?w=840&h=697
    (photo from Dachau)

    The workers got paid pocket money in camp money-stamps, with which they could buy stamps, stationary and other small things.

    “Greetings from Auschwitz, I miss you!”

    https://www.editionpatrickfrey.com/sites/default/files/styles/full_960/public/books/189-greetings-auschwitz/spreads-greetings-auschwitz_1.jpg?itok=6LL3OUMm

    The Red Cross was a regular visitor of all camps and after the war published a report boiling down to that they had seen nothing special:

    https://rense.com/general69/factua.htm

    That report was suppressed by the Alllies.

  12. I AM THE MOB on Sat, 5th Jan 2019 6:48 am 

    Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (AOC) Dancing (2028 Meme)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWVfGKW6lA8

    Trump can dance too!

    https://imgur.com/a/Wvijaeg

  13. I AM THE MOB on Sat, 5th Jan 2019 6:51 am 

    Mak

    The oil age may come to an end from a shortage of oil.

    -Saudi saying

  14. Davy on Sat, 5th Jan 2019 7:09 am 

    “Holocaust survivors live an average seven years longer than other Jewish people because they had to be tough to survive”

    Stupid shit neder. The weak and health defective were killed off leaving the genetically stronger and smarter to survive.

    neder, this is not a holocaust forum. Geeze move on from you obsession. What you are doing is showing us your position is weak by your constant commenting on it.

  15. Cloggie on Sat, 5th Jan 2019 7:20 am 

    “neder, this is not a holocaust forum.”

    It isn’t but Mobster brought up the subject.

    https://aladinsmiraclelamp.wordpress.com/2018/03/13/auschwitz-for-dummies-below-is-a-long-list-of-facts/

    Hey look, America had an Auschwitz as well, to store Japanese in for political reasons:

    http://www.awesomestories.com/images/user/4176a83c07c5dfe4308ac847fafd2124.jpg

    Looks almost the same and had the same purpose: store political prisoners in.

    Neither the Americans nor Germans “exterminated” anybody.

  16. Cloggie on Sat, 5th Jan 2019 7:51 am 

    The oil age may come to an end from a shortage of oil.

    -Saudi saying

    The stone age didn’t come to an end because re ran out of stones, but because we got something better, iron.

    Likewise the oil age will come to an end, not because we run out of oil let alone fossil fuel, but because we have got something better:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/09/16/blueprint-100-renewable-energy-base-for-germany/

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