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Page added on February 11, 2020

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Global Oil Demand Growth Is Evaporating

Consumption

The coronavirus epidemic in China has triggered restrictions in the country’s public transport and air travel, both at a domestic and an international level, reducing demand for oil, which has lost about a fifth of its value since the start of the year.

What does that mean for the world’s 2020 oil demand?

Assessing the impact of the virus, Rystad Energy is heavily revising its annual global oil demand growth forecast down by 25% to 820,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2020.

Our previous growth forecast, published in December, before the coronavirus outbreak, stood at 1.1 million bpd. The coronavirus’ impact on demand growth could be even wider, however, slashing growth to as low as 650,000 bpd year on year (y/y) in our worst case scenario.

“Our current assessment implies that the impact of coronavirus will persist throughout all of February and March and will then gradually subside towards June 2020. We hence expect travel restrictions and extended holidays in China to significantly impair demand in 1Q20 and partially in 2Q20. Demand is forecast to start recovering in April and May,” said Bjornar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Senior Vice President, Head of Oil Markets.

What does that mean quarterly?

We now believe that the projected global oil demand growth in the first quarter will be almost entirely wiped out. Rystad Energy’s estimates show that demand will grow by only 0.1 million bpd, a steep decline from a previously projected y/y growth of 1.2 million bpd for 1Q20.

Of the above, 0.9 million bpd of the growth’s decline is attributed to lower demand in China and 0.2 million bpd to the rest of the world. Overall, we expect Chinese demand to drop in 1Q20 by 0.3 million bpd y/y, instead of growing by a previously projected 0.6 million bpd. This will be the first quarterly y/y drop in seven years.

Similarly, the rest of the world’s demand, excluding China, which had been projected to grow by 0.6 million bpd in 1Q, is now expected to grow by only 0.4 million bpd.

We see an additional downside risk to short-term oil demand growth also from a macro-economic perspective as we continue to see weak economic indicators from India – one of the main engines of demand growth – along with weak European manufacturing PMIs. Consensus GDP forecasts have recently put Indian GDP growth at just 5% this year, 0.5 percentage points lower than in the previous forecast. European manufacturing PMIs remain at 46, well below the inflection point of 50.

China to take the biggest hit

Chinese oil demand accounted for 13% of the global total in 2019, standing at 13.6 million bpd. Before the coronavirus outbreak, we expected Chinese demand to grow by 400,000 bpd this year, including a 100,000 bpd y/y growth in jet fuel demand.

We have now reduced our forecast for Chinese demand growth to 230,000 bpd this year, and we expect the largest negative impact to be seen in demand for jet fuel. Rystad Energy’s data show that Chinese jet fuel demand fell by 30% in January and could potentially decline by 60% in February and March.

China’s travel restrictions have come at a time that would normally mark a seasonal increase in air and long-distance bus journeys, as hundreds of millions of people typically travel during Chinese Lunar New Year. This means that a fraction of oil demand this year will be lost indefinitely.

Coronavirus versus SARS

Viruses – like hurricanes, economic crises and armed conflicts – are ad hoc events that can significantly impair oil demand. The SARS virus, which originated in China around the same time of the year back in 2003, is believed to have eliminated all of the growth of global jet fuel demand for that year, which had been forecast at about 200,000 bpd.

China’s oil demand has now more than doubled since 2003. The country accounts for 14% of global air passengers carried and around 13% of global trade in goods, which is why the impact of a similar virus outbreak as SARS will likely be even greater now. Moreover, the death toll from the coronavirus reported this weekend has already surpassed that of SARS in 2003, and we see a risk that the coronavirus impact may be understated.

At their peak in February and March, both Chinese and international air restrictions could reduce global jet fuel demand by 900,000 bpd in relation to our pre-coronavirus expected growth levels.

By Rystad Energy



50 Comments on "Global Oil Demand Growth Is Evaporating"

  1. makati1 on Tue, 11th Feb 2020 5:03 pm 

    Demand for oil and the things that burn it was declining long before the virus. Worldwide car sales had dropped last year and were not showing any hint of stopping the decline. If the serfs cannot afford it, oil use will continue to shrink.

    Oily limbo. How low can it go?

  2. JuanP on Tue, 11th Feb 2020 5:23 pm 

    Mak, tell us more about the virus and how it is nothing. I need a cheer-me-up

  3. makati1 on Tue, 11th Feb 2020 5:49 pm 

    It is still “nothing”. ~1,000 deaths total in ~3 months. Over 10,000 deaths in the US alone from the normal flu this year, to date. More deaths to come and not form coronavirus.

    The USMSM is making coronavirus a big negative because of its Sinophobia. Nothing more. There are over 3,300 deaths every day in China in normal times.

    I’ll hold my judgement until it passes the normal flu deaths in a year. An average of 650,000 annually.

    BTW: No new cases here in the Philippines, China’s neighbor. “As of 11 February, Philippines has three confirmed coronavirus infection cases.” One death.

  4. JuanP on Tue, 11th Feb 2020 6:46 pm 

    Mak, what about most of the Chinese economy being shuttered? You really don’t have much depth to your understanding of world events if you can’t see and acknowledged that. You suck of the teet of MSM and then complain about them. I am scared a cruise ship is going to bring it to Miami Beach.

  5. makati1 on Tue, 11th Feb 2020 7:27 pm 

    I understand a lot more than you do Davy. My mind is not soaked in MSM Sinophobe propaganda 24/7/365 like those of Amerika, yourself included.

    Yes, China’s economy is hurting, but if you think it is not going to take down the US economy also, you are the one who is in denial. Better wait and see how it all shakes out before you try to put down someone of superior intelligence with bullshit.

    Recommended reading for Amerikans like yourself:

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/02/09/the-usas-doll-house-a-vast-tapestry-of-lies-and-illusions/

    https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/02/08/who-can-now-say-america-hasnt-become-mega-corporate-dictatorship/

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/rosa-luxemburg-debt-imperialist-instrument/5703113

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/china-western-china-bashing-western-biowarfare/5703152

    Nuff said.

  6. Duncan Idaho on Tue, 11th Feb 2020 8:39 pm 

    1847 — Patent thief, inventor of the modern timeclock, among other widgets, Thomas Edison lives.

  7. yellowcanoe on Wed, 12th Feb 2020 7:37 am 

    Hard to imagine that the demand for oil is dropping considering how much driving my wife does to visit or transport grandchildren!

  8. Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 13th Feb 2020 1:24 pm 

    Growth Dutch economy in 2019 was 1.7%, the lowest since 2014.

    Q4-growth was still 0.4%.

    2020 will show lower growth, but no recession.

    https://insights.abnamro.nl/2020/02/groei-nederlandse-economie-beter-dan-verwacht/

  9. JuanP on Thu, 13th Feb 2020 1:27 pm 

    “2020 will show lower growth, but no recession.”

    wishful thinking, cloggie

  10. Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 13th Feb 2020 2:23 pm 

    German prime time news and other media report that a global pandemic is becoming a serious possibility:

    https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/2020-02/coronavirus-wissenschaftler-pandemie

  11. Davy on Thu, 13th Feb 2020 4:17 pm 

    “2020 will show lower growth, but no recession”

    You guys over in Eurotardland are lucky cloggo. Were likely going into depression and than collapsing.

  12. Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 13th Feb 2020 5:18 pm 

    “You guys over in Eurotardland are lucky cloggo. Were likely going into depression and than collapsing.”

    That is a juanPee comment not Davy

  13. Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 6:22 am 

    New record-low tender PV-solar Qatar 800 MW solar park:

    1.4 cent/kWh

    https://www.wattisduurzaam.nl/5969/energie-opwekken/zonne-energie/zonnestroom-mexico-duikt-4-dollarcent-per-kilowattuur/

    #TooCheapToMeter

    By 2050, sunny and formerly poor territories like Africa, Arabia, etc with endless supply of cheap labor, will provide Eurasia with a steady supply of affordable hydrogen and finally bring these notorious poor people in touch with serious money and let them escape poverty once and for all. Such is the liberating power of (renewable) technology.

    Expect that by 2100 all people on this planet will live in a stone house with solar panels, flat panel, internet connection, sewage, etc., with technology like this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCzS2FZoB-I

    Even the poorest can afford a home with a price ($4k), three times their annual income.

  14. Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 6:34 am 

    Note: this 1.4 cent is offered by a French-Japanese consortium. As I understand it, the consortium will build the park from its own purse and the Qatar government agrees to buy ALL the intermittent electricity at a price of 1.4 cent/kWh

    https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/01/23/qatars-800-mw-pv-tender-saw-world-record-final-price-0-01567-kwh/

    Correct me if I am wrong.

    With current technology you can already convert this electricity in hydrogen, even if the conversion efficiency would be less than 50%.

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/11/23/renewable-hydrogen-already-cost-competitive/

  15. Antius on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 7:15 am 

    “Yes, China’s economy is hurting, but if you think it is not going to take down the US economy also, you are the one who is in denial. Better wait and see how it all shakes out before you try to put down someone of superior intelligence with bullshit.”

    Part of me would be happy to see the British economy collapse. These are the sort of people that run the Britain.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/uk-government-approves-net-censorship-british-free-speech-dies

    This is the sort of thing that the Globalist Dems want to do in the US, but the first amendment stands in their way.

  16. Richard Guenette on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 7:45 am 

    We should hire trades people to work in factories to build electric vehicles with the help of industrial robots (No, people aren’t going to lose their jobs from automation/robotics). Just an idea.

  17. Richard Guenette on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 7:47 am 

    We should build a global, interconnected electric car charging station. No more building gas-powered vehicles (Just recycle them and reuse them for mass production).

  18. Richard Guunette on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 7:51 am 

    The above two comments are ID theft by the lunatic JuanP. Disregard them because it is just trolling

  19. JuanP on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 7:52 am 

    I am feeling very depressed and suicidal this morning. I am not going to comment much today.

  20. JuanP on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 7:53 am 

    I am feeling crazy and might need to seek therapy. This comes from drinking, drugging, and mental issues. help me lord

  21. Richard Guenette on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 7:56 am 

    Have vehicles fueled by alternative fuels.

  22. More Lunatic Davy ID Fraud on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 8:20 am 

    Richard Guunette on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 7:51 am

    JuanP on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 7:52 am

    JuanP on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 7:53 am

  23. Fact Checker on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 8:23 am 

    This is not a valid handle:

    “More Lunatic Davy ID Fraud”

  24. Richard Guunette on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 8:24 am 

    This is JuanP ID theft:

    “Richard Guenette on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 7:56 am”

  25. JuanP on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 8:25 am 

    Help me lord. Help accept what I can’t change and Change what I can. Please lord stop these suicidal thoughts. My chronic depression is killing me. I want to die.

  26. More Lunatic Davy ID Fraud on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 8:25 am 

    This is not a valid handle:

    Fact Checker

  27. More Lunatic Davy ID Fraud on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 8:27 am 

    Richard Guunette on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 8:24 am

    JuanP on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 8:25 am

  28. Fact Checkers on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 8:27 am 

    This is not a valid handle. Please try again JuanP:

    “More Lunatic Davy ID Fraud”

  29. ANAL REAPER on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 8:30 am 

    Juan, go ahead and do it. Make everyone happy including yourself!

  30. More Lunatic Davy ID Fraud on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 8:30 am 

    This is not a valid handle. Please try again Davy.

    Fact Checkers

  31. Richard Guunette on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 8:31 am 

    South Americans who migrate to Miami are generally parasites and losers

  32. More Lunatic Davy ID Fraud on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 8:32 am 

    ANAL REAPER on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 8:30 am

  33. Fact Checker on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 8:32 am 

    JuanP, this is not a valid handle

    “More Lunatic Davy ID Fraud”

  34. Fact Checker on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 8:33 am 

    JuanP, this is not a valid handle please try again:

    “More Lunatic Davy ID Fraud”

  35. More Lunatic Davy ID Fraud on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 8:39 am 

    Fact Checker on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 8:32 am

    Fact Checker on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 8:33 am

  36. Davy on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 10:11 am 

    North Americans who migrate to Missouri and generally parasites and losers

  37. JuanP on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 10:54 am 

    Oops, I forgot Davy was born in Missouri he is not a loser South American who moved to North America to steal from the local population. I am a bad person. Please deport me.

  38. ANAL REAPER on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 10:54 am 

    I agree you are a CUNTFACE

  39. Richard Guunette on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 10:56 am 

    It would be nice to have this board free of the trolling JuanP does. I also think his muzzie socks are a tun off to smart people. What is the dumbass thinking?

  40. JuanP on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 10:58 am 

    OH dear, makati, your Asia is a mess:

    WHO Turns On China, Demands To Know How Nearly 2,000 Doctors Were Infected With COVID-19

    Summary:

    China says 1,716 medical workers have been infected

    WHO demands to know more about sick doctors, insists group of 12 virus experts will reach Beijing over the weekend

    Singapore reports largest daily jump in cases amid increased human-to-human transmission

    Hong Kong reports 3 new cases

    Hubei’s new party boss orders quarantine tightened

    President Xi touts new “biosecurity law”

    Hong Kong Disney land offers space for quarantine

    Chinese company says blood plasma of recovered patients useful in combating the virus

    US mulling new travel restrictions

    Japan reports 4 new cases; one patient recently returned from Hawaii.

    CDC Director: Virus is “Coming” to the US.

  41. Richard Guunette on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 11:05 am 

    BUT BUT juanPee, your stupid Russian disinformation article from NEO said the US planted it. This is expected because you are a low IQ high school drop out ho hates Americans:

    Smoking Gun? Chinese Scientist Finds “Killer Coronavirus Probably Originated From A Laboratory In Wuhan”

    That has now changed, however, with what may be a “smoking gun” report, first noted by Harvard to the big house, from a scientist at the prestigious South China University of Technology in Guangzhou China. A pre-print published by Botao Xiao and Lei Xiao, titled “The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus” whose abstract is the following…The 2019-nCoV has caused an epidemic of 28,060 laboratory-confirmed infections in human including 564 deaths in China by February 6, 2020. Two descriptions of the virus published on Nature this week indicated that the genome sequences from patients were almost identical to the Bat CoV ZC45 coronavirus. It was critical to study where the pathogen came from and how it passed onto human. An article published on The Lancet reported that 27 of 41 infected patients were found to have contact with the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan. We noted two laboratories conducting research on bat coronavirus in Wuhan, one of which was only 280 meters from the seafood market. We briefly examined the histories of the laboratories and proposed that the coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory. Our proposal provided an alternative origin of the coronavirus in addition to natural recombination and intermediate host. … and an especially ominous conclusion: In summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.

  42. Duncan Idaho on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 11:10 am 

    NOAA
    @NOAA
    ·
    Feb 13
    JUST IN: January 2020 surpassed 2016 as the warmest #January on record for globe, according to @NOAANCEIclimate
    https://go.usa.gov/xdNBR #StateOfClimate

  43. Duncan Idaho on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 1:05 pm 

    Trump Goes Full Mussolini. Trump: “I’m President and I Have the Right to Intervene in Criminal Cases.”

  44. Duncan Idaho on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 1:18 pm 

    PANICKED OVER SANDERS, ELITES TURN TO … BLOOMBERG?
    The corp whores are getting nervous–
    https://www.radiofree.org/2020/02/14/panicked-over-sanders-elites-turn-to-bloomberg/

  45. Duncan Idaho on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 1:25 pm 

    Well, we are finally there:
    https://i1.wp.com/digbysblog.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/banana-trump.jpg?resize=1024%2C576&ssl=1

  46. JuanP on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 1:32 pm 

    “Trump Goes Full Mussolini. Trump: “I’m President and I Have the Right to Intervene in Criminal Cases.”

    Duncan, they all do it. Get over your derangement. You really are sick.

  47. JuanP on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 1:36 pm 

    Barr Assigns Outside Prosecutor To Review Case Against Flynn

    A week of two-tiered legal shenanigans was capped off on Friday with a New York Times report that Attorney General William Barr has assigned an outside prosecutor to scrutinize the government’s case against former Trump national security adviser Michael Flynn, which the Times suggested was “highly unusual and could trigger more accusations of political interference by top Justice Department officials into the work of career prosecutors.”

    Stone – Charged

    Flynn – Charged

    Papadopoulos – Charged

    Gates – Charged

    Cohen – Charged

    McCabe – Pass

    Comey – Pass

    Brennan – Pass

    Clapper – Pass

    Podesta – Pass

    — Jack Posobiec (@JackPosobiec) February 14, 2020
    Earlier this week, Barr overruled the DC prosecutors recommendation for Stone, resulting in their resignations. The result was the predictable triggering of Democrats across the spectrum.

    According to the Times, “Over the past two weeks, the outside prosecutors have begun grilling line prosecutors in the Washington office about various cases — some public, some not — including investigative steps, prosecutorial actions and why they took them, according to the people. They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive internal deliberations.”

  48. More Lunatic Davy ID Fraud on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 1:55 pm 

    JuanP on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 10:54 am

    ANAL REAPER on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 10:54 am

    Richard Guunette on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 10:56 am

    JuanP on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 10:58 am

    Richard Guunette on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 11:05 am

    JuanP on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 1:32 pm

    JuanP on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 1:36 pm

  49. Fact Checker on Fri, 14th Feb 2020 2:06 pm 

    More Lunatic Davy ID Fraud Is not a valid handle juanPee

  50. Cloggie on Sat, 15th Feb 2020 4:58 pm 

    This is the most promising way to store hydrogen I am aware off, hydrogen produced from electrolysis, stored in powder-form.

    Energy density: 9 kWh/kg, comparable with gasoline (excl. the water needed to release the hydrogen)

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2020/02/15/h2fuel/

    H2-Fuel

    Currently roll-out towards industrial processes is underway (ship, electricity generation, bus, etc.)

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