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Equinor Sees Peak Oil Demand Around 2030


Peak oil demand could come around 2030 at 111 million bpd in the current market as road transport electrification and efficiency gains in all sectors offsets increasing petrochemical and aviation growth, Norway’s Equinor said in its Energy Perspectives report on Thursday.

That assumption is one of Equinor’s scenarios for energy transition, Reform, which suggests that oil demand will grow robustly through the early 2020s, level out in the second half of the decade, peak at 111 million bpd around 2030, and then fall to 105 million bpd by 2050.

Equinor—which dropped the name Statoil last month to reflect a “broad energy” company rather than being associated only with oil—is discussing two other scenarios in its Energy Perspectives—the Renewal scenario and the Rivalry scenario.

Renewal assumes global cooperation, fast energy transition, and the achieving the Paris Agreement’s target to limit global warming to well below 2°C. In Renewal, peak oil demand could come in the early 2020s, if faster battery technology development, continued policy pushes, and larger efficiency improvements occur soon. In that case, oil demand could be just below 60 million bpd in 2050, according to Equinor.

The company’s third scenario, Rivalry, assumes that geopolitical volatility, boom and bust cycles, destructive market rule, and lack of cooperation will lead to continued oil demand growth all the way through 2050, at 122 million bpd in 2050. In the Rivalry scenario, geopolitical conflict and other political events take priority over climate change.

“Unfortunately, we currently see too many signs of the Rivalry-scenario. If continuing, they will negatively impact necessary global collaborative efforts and economic growth which are keys to drive the world in a sustainable direction,” Equinor’s Chief Economist Eirik Wærness said.

Yet, in all three scenarios, large investments in new oil discoveries will still be needed—although significantly less in the Renewal scenario—to offset the decline from existing fields, said Equinor.

“The transition to a more sustainable energy system is too slow. A sustainable development path, consistent with the 2-degree target, does not allow for further delays in policy, industry and consumer action to reduce emissions,” the company said.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for

13 Comments on "Equinor Sees Peak Oil Demand Around 2030"

  1. Cloggie on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 1:39 pm 

    An oilcompany telling the public that they should kick the habbit of buying their product, that’s quite unique in corporate history. Responsible mentality, only to be found, to this extent, in Europe.

    They also acknowledge that there is an entire planet to be f*cked, err fracked, with potential to supply the world economy until 2050 with substantially larger than 2018 levels.

    Obviously Europe should continue to take the lead in the energy transition and comfort ourselves with the thought that our renewable energy industries will take over the role of Anglo oil companies in the 20th century.


    You like your planet cooked? Medium or well done?

  2. Cloggie on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 2:21 pm 

    In 2014 Impicked up this signal:

    Now it is becoming reality:

    With enormous implications for the energy transition.

    Think household batteries to bridge the evening for $500,- For the days feed-in tariffs will be history.

  3. Davy on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 2:31 pm 

    “Think household batteries to bridge the evening for $500,- For the days feed-in tariffs will be history.“


  4. Cloggie on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 2:37 pm 

    Meathead always “forgets” to add arguments to his one word condemnations.

    Most likely because he hasn’t any.

  5. MASTERMIND on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 2:38 pm 


    Its time you give this fantasy up..Its time to accept reality..

    Bill Gates: We need global ‘energy miracles’

    Solar and Wind produced less than one percent of total world energy in 2016 – IEA WEO 2017

    UC Davis Peer Reviewed Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives
    (Malyshkina, 2010)

    University of Chicago Peer Reviewed Study: predicts world economy unlikely to stop relying on fossil fuels (Covert, 2016)

    Shortage of resources for renewable energy and food production (Rhodes 2011)

    Top scientists show why powering US using 100 percent renewable energy is a delusional fantasy

    And my sources are not big tech sock puppets like what you use..Fake news.

  6. Davy on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 3:01 pm 

    “Most likely because he hasn’t any.”

    Dumb Dutch guy, you didn’t have an arguement. You just belched out a fantasy based upon some slight improvements in batteries that is supposed to equate to huge price savings.

  7. Boat on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 3:07 pm 


    What I want to know is the demand for renewables when climate change causes peak humans. The death count per year will dramatically increase causing panic buying.

  8. Makati1 on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 3:15 pm 

    Cloggie, Davy doesn’t have a defense for his thoughts because there arn’t any. How do you defend the indefensible? The US is a bloody, immoral, out of control, plundering, terrorist machine that is self-destructing from the inside. So obvious to those not in the pot of water.

  9. Davy on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 3:17 pm 

    3rd world, what does that regurgitate have to do with batteries. More dumbed down old man talk.

  10. Makati1 on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 3:28 pm 

    Davy, maybe you would get some respect here if you presented real references to your rants and comments? Immaturity and name calling does not prove anything except your inability to debate.

    Does insanity run in your family? If so, you seem to have inherited a load of it. Or is it drugs? Alcohol? Mistreatment as a child? You need serious mental help.

  11. Davy on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 4:04 pm 

    shut up 3rd world. I am not here for respect I am here to disrespect those who disrespect and I plainly have you and your disrespectful groupies all hot and bothered. You whine too much 3rd world.

  12. Duncan Idaho on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 8:15 pm 

    Equinor is a optimist.

  13. Boat on Sun, 10th Jun 2018 12:59 pm 

    Norway tops the charts in doing business with honesty and integrity. It’s little surprise their approximant date for peak oil in 2030 matches my own made 2 years ago.
    My prediction for oil consumption at 2030 was 115 mbpd, far exceeding estimates of the day and current estimates. So far the trends show 115 being underestimated.

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