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Page added on July 17, 2020

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Driving may never fully bounce back

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Increased working from home and use of e-commerce will be “powerful and enduring” in the U.S. — potentially enough to reduce auto miles traveled by up to 9% going forward, according to a new KPMG analysis.

Why it matters: The behavioral changes that stick around once the coronavirus crisis passes will affect power use, driving levels and oil demand — with repercussions for all those industries.

  • The KPMG report takes a stab at specifically quantifying the potential long-term driving effects in the U.S., and what it means for the auto sector.

The big picture: While driving has recovered a lot from the depths of the pandemic, KPMG analysts say that going forward, U.S. vehicle miles traveled could drop by a range of 140 billion to 270 billion miles per year.

  • The consultancy estimates that car ownership also could fall, from 1.97 to 1.87 vehicles per household.
  • “That may not sound like much, but it could translate into 7 million to 14 million fewer vehicles on U.S. roads,” the report notes.

What’s next: That change would cut into car sales, but the stickiness of the pandemic lifestyle could also shake up the industry in other ways by increasing demand for delivery vehicles.

  • “Both incumbent automakers and startups are working on innovative delivery-van designs, new power-train systems, and autonomous capabilities,” they note.

Quick take: Look for intensifying competition in the electric delivery vehicle market, where several startups — notably Rivian, which has a huge deal with Amazon — and legacy players are in the mix.

The intrigue: The ultimate effects of the pandemic on auto and plane travel could hasten the peak of global oil demand, and some analysts think it may have already happened.

  • “Energy demand and certainly mobility demand will be lower even when this crisis more or less [is] behind us. Will it mean that it will never recover? It’s probably too early to say,” Royal Dutch Shell CEO Ben van Beurden tells IHS Markit’s Dan Yergin in an interview posted this week.

Yes, but: KPMG energy analyst Regina Mayor, in an email exchange, cautions against assuming that our new work and driving habits on their own will have a major long-term effect on motor fuel use.

  • She notes variables like how much shopping trip reductions are offset by delivery truck miles, the potential for people to move out of urban areas, and avoidance of public transit and planes in favor of cars.

My thought bubble: It’s possible to see a scenario where oil demand has peaked, but it would mean several forces — not just more remote work and shopping — moving in the same direction.

  • Others include changes in trade and shipping patterns as countries look to localize supply chains, as well as economic recovery packages steering lots of resources into efficiency, electric vehicles and mass transit, and the jury’s still out there.

Axios



26 Comments on "Driving may never fully bounce back"

  1. Paul on Fri, 17th Jul 2020 2:04 pm 

    A growing number of people can’t afford car, insurance, maintenance, etc. If you want to take the chance on an illegally tagged beater car, you can get one in my neighborhood for about $500. They still take cash too. Corona or no corona, they’ll take that green stuff.

  2. RPG on Fri, 17th Jul 2020 4:52 pm 

    Hydrogen vehicles should be mass produced and sold in large numbers.

  3. Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 2:15 am 

    The B747 won’t bounce back either:

    https://www.nu.nl/economie/6064965/british-airways-stuurt-hele-boeing-747-vloot-per-direct-met-pensioen.html

    BA cancels all its B747’s and will only fly with far more fuel efficient A350 or B787. KLM has downgraded its B747-fleet for freight only.

  4. Cloggie on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 2:26 am 

    “A growing number of people can’t afford car, insurance, maintenance, etc. If you want to take the chance on an illegally tagged beater car, you can get one in my neighborhood for about $500. They still take cash too. Corona or no corona, they’ll take that green stuff.”

    Corona is the perfect excuse to replace the privately owned-cars with automatic driving vans. Begin with the large interstates, where entire fleets of 8p Ford-Transit like vans drive up and down the highway, effectively turning the interstate in a railway with on-demand mini-trains. Automatic driving can be done technically already, perhaps not in a city, but on a predictable interstate it can be done. With increased experience, the system can be expanded on to secondary roads.

    It will require an economic crash to push through autonomous driving, bringing down the cost per mile with a factor of 4 to 10, depending on whether you old car was a Toyota Starlet or a Mercedes:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/05/16/by-2030-you-wont-own-a-car/

    ““By 2030 You Won’t Own a Car””

  5. Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 2:52 am 

    A world without science, television, flying, technology, medicine by 2100?

    In the stinking decaying West (US empire) it is absolutely possible that society will regress into new dark ages (pun intended), thanks to the diversity scam.

    https://www.eurocanadian.ca/2020/07/white-men-responsible-for-almost-all-greatest-achievements.html#more

    “White Men Responsible For Almost All The Greatest Human Accomplishments”

    Yids played a minor role, but for the rest it is Europeans only. Asians are able to copy and produce, but invent not so much. Muslims or Africans are a joke. After the fall of Rome, Europe fell back for 1000 years thanks to that cretin religion christianity. Could happen again, this time even worse.

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/detroit-illiteracy-nearly-half-education_n_858307

    If the New North-Americans can’t even be expected to be able to read and write, not even after decades of affirmative actions and trillions thrown at them, forget about every other accomplishment. Diversity has the potential to completely wipe out civilization, worse then the dark ages after the Roman empire.

  6. Davy on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 4:54 am 

    “Corona is the perfect excuse to replace the privately owned-cars with automatic driving vans.”

    cloggo and his flying pigs. We have discussed this 20 times cloggo but you don’t give up on your fantasies easily. The tech is not there and the world likely cannot afford it except as a niche. I doubt the tech will ever be good enough except for very local applications.

  7. Davy on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 4:57 am 

    “In the stinking decaying West (US empire) it is absolutely possible that society will regress into new dark ages (pun intended), thanks to the diversity scam.”

    Backtracking cloggo, lol, I knew you would come around to decline. You are still fixated on racism but that is OK. People like you need excuses for the pain ahead. Bend over sucker you have a long way to fall. “Slovenia”

  8. Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 6:06 am 

    “Backtracking cloggo, lol, I knew you would come around to decline. You are still fixated on racism but that is OK. People like you need excuses for the pain ahead. Bend over sucker you have a long way to fall. “Slovenia””

    After you, ladies first.

    Your downfall will mean our salvation. When the pictures come in of thousands of dead Americans, after “the dams have been broken”, somewhere between November-2020 and 2025, our local diversity crowd will have no more arguments and will receive the “1989” treatment for treason:

    https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2019/12/13/11/ceausecu-execution.jpg

    “Slovenia” = US – loss reserve currency (35-40% GDP). Doesn’t apply to Europe as we do not own the reserve currency.

    Try to come up with memes you invented yourself or are you too dull for that?

    I do not backtrack whatsoever. Never denied that I despise the “accidental” shit-hole empire and that we will go under if we wouldn’t manage to escape. But we will escape. And as you say, we have a long way to fall, IF we would fall, which we won’t. Slovenia will remain Slovenia and Western Europe will remain far ahead of that and will retake its traditional place under the sun: planetary pole position (in terms of wealth and innovation).

  9. Davy on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 6:22 am 

    “Try to come up with memes you invented yourself or are you too dull for that?”

    I love making the deranged dutch guy look in the mirror. I do the same thing with the lunatic juanPee. LMFAO. My comment stands!

  10. Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 6:24 am 

    “We have discussed this 20 times cloggo but you don’t give up on your fantasies easily. The tech is not there and the world likely cannot afford it except as a niche. I doubt the tech will ever be good enough except for very local applications.”

    Yeah, the familiar attitude the rubes had with trains (“cow milk gets sour”), cars, planes, TV’s, space travel, etc.

    The technology IS there, it is that Corona has halted progress with a year or more.

    Yet, they are still working on it:

    https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2019/02/2019-autonomous-vehicles-readiness-index.html#:~:text=The%20results%20of%20the%202019,of%20driverless%20cars%20and%20trucks.

    5G will make things easier, faster and more accurate.

    In the Netherlands they are working on “truck platooning” first, like this in Asia:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnCqRW1Hx2E

    Truck traffic between Rotterdam Harbor and Germany is intense. The empty roads at night could be used to begin with. Important are: small, incremental steps. No grand coup, no one-size-fits-all approach. First the easy stuff. Trucks at night, on the highway with flashing lights on, slow speed, like 60 kmh.

  11. Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 6:35 am 

    Another cathedral in France on fire (Nantes). Even the BBC believes it was arson:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53455142

  12. Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 7:10 am 

    Nantes: fire broke out at three different locations:

    https://nos.nl/artikel/2341058-vuur-in-historische-kathedraal-van-nantes-onder-controle-brand-lijkt-aangestoken.html

    At least the French police is honest about that. Now we our waiting to see the camera pictures while we sharpen our knives in order for history to return big time.

  13. Anonymouse on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 7:32 am 

    Cloggkike, Is anyone in Britain, or Albania or w/e you are actually from, implementing any of your endless ‘could’, might be or will be available sometime in the next 50-100 years schemes and notions like, now? Wtf are you telling an imbecile like davy what you believe, could, maybe, might happen someday, somewhere he couldn’t find on a map with both his hands and a hunting goat anyhow? He’s just as clueless and mentally unbalanced as yourself.

    He also, has even less money and status than jew, I mean you do cloggedanus. So, instead of flapping your yid piehole here 20/7, spamming links no one ever pays any attention to, maybe you should get out of your mobility chair, and go tell the powers that be, would they ‘should’ be doing, in your estimation. You’ve convinced deranged davy an itinerant goat fu, er ‘farmer’ from Dent Co. MO, aka, the asshole of Missouri that you are a successful engineer and certified physicist, so convincing people with money and authority to spring for your schemes should be trivial. I know, why dont you go, run for Prime Minister of Albania and then you can make all you farcical notions a reality. That would really impress ’empire dave’ as you like to refer to it.

    Sounds good right? All you need to do, is GTFO of here, so you can devout your copious amounts of free-time to making your peculiar and irrelevant fantasies a reality. With other peoples money of course.

    And…thats pretty much all you need to do. The rest will take of itself. Well be fine here w/o you. Really.

  14. Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 9:32 am 

    BLM-clown, is there any major car company, that you know of, that is not involved in autonomous driving? That’s intelligent money. Does that ring a bell in that coconut minute brain of yours? Of course not. Already too busy contemplating where the next meal should come from.

    Why don’t remain in the intellectual realm you are designed for:

    1. rain dancing
    2. wooden penis shaft design
    3. rabbit hunting with a spear
    4. shoe polishing
    5. cotton picking

    Don’t pretend you are anything else but a jungle bunny, who soon will now longer enjoy black privilege, namely being tolerated in the white world, you so desperately want to be in, like the rest of your third world, so you can target an easy, defenseless prey like empire dave.

    “All you need to do, is GTFO of here”

    Why don’t you move your ass to Atlanta and avoid the rush?

  15. Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 9:38 am 

    Buchanan senses that it could all end here. Australian political senior Malcolm Fraser feared the same:

    https://www.infowars.com/buchanan-is-america-up-for-a-naval-war-with-china/

    Anglo ships merely exist to give China the pretext to go after Australia and New Zealand when the time is ripe.

  16. Davy on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 9:41 am 

    “Anglo ships merely exist to give China the pretext to go after Australia and New Zealand when the time is ripe.”

    Lets see what China does with Taiwan, cloggo. LOL. You mentally masturbate way too much. You must have a addiction issue or something.

  17. Davy on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 9:45 am 

    annoy, you must be getting lonely because your senile old man, mak is here less and less. The lunatic juaPee is your second best friend and likewise is slowing down. It is hard to maintain a high degree of mental illness for very long. I think juanPee is slipping into his deep depressive state where he goes silent. Mak is just slowly going brain dead. You are just a POS that has no life or why would you go by Anonymouse? LMFAO at the cock sucker

  18. Davy on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 9:53 am 

    Cloggo’s tribe:

    “The EU’s Climate Change Effort Is Comically Exaggerated”
    https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/the-eu-climate-change-effort-is-comically-exaggerated

    “Climate Change Cheating and Hypocrisy Eurointelligence comments on the EU’s Exaggerated Climate Change Spending. We note that the European Court of Auditors is becoming increasingly nervous about the European Commission’s overblown claims about its programmes. The auditors specifically looked at agricultural policies and structural funds, and concluded that the proportion of funds earmarked for climate change is almost comically exaggerated. The worst offender is agriculture. The plan had been to reserve half of the €100bn spent on agriculture for climate protection. The Commission counts subsistence payments to farmers as climate spending, so long as the farmers fulfil some nominal climate standards which almost every farmer does. On spending programmes, the EU uses an old-fashioned rounding trick. The OECD has recommended a simplified category whereby governments count the climate-protection share of their expenditures in steps of 0, 40% or 100%. What the Commission does is to round expenditures up to the next level. Over the years, we have noted an increasing tendency by the Commission to make dishonest claims about its programmes. This is also why we have become very sceptical about any headlines coming out of Brussels. The headline numbers usually conflate different categories of money, and do not translate into reality.”

  19. Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 9:59 am 

    “Lets see what China does with Taiwan, cloggo. LOL.”

    Go try convince Pat Buchanan, a rare thinking American.

    I said: “when the time is ripe”, meaning: shortly after the onset of CW2.

  20. Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 10:06 am 

    “The EU’s Climate Change Effort Is Comically Exaggerated”

    Mish who?

    https://tinyurl.com/yycmep8u

    Couldn’t find a picture with the MAGA hat, he no doubt has.

    https://tinyurl.com/yyyh6ysq

    “Europe’s one trillion climate finance plan”

  21. Davy on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 10:46 am 

    “Go try convince Pat Buchanan, a rare thinking American.” “I said: “when the time is ripe”, meaning: shortly after the onset of CW2.”

    Convince him of what? Give me the statement, cloggo. You always do this with putting your words in others mouths. FRAUD

  22. Davy on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 10:48 am 

    “Mish who?”

    I have referenced many of his economic articles so no doubt that is why you don’t know who he is because your are a economic and financial illiterate.

  23. Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 2:57 pm 

    Oh, forgot to mention that it was the plundering of the New World that made all those Great White achievements possible, not any imagined white superiority, which kinda debunks my benign whitey theory. I’ve had a stool pushed in so far by giant negro cock that it’s filled my cranial cavity.

  24. FamousDrScanlon on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 3:21 pm 

    Enjoy the rest of the summer you miserable cunts. I’m heading out to the bush for 5-6 weeks. I’m sure things will continue to unravel while I’m absent, but the world will still be here when I get back & y’all will be even more miserable….as nature intended.

    Humans aren’t designed to be happy – so stop trying

    https://theconversation.com/humans-arent-designed-to-be-happy-so-stop-trying-119262

    Stay frosty

  25. the board on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 4:46 pm 

    JuanP on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 3:21 pm

    “Enjoy the rest of the summer you miserable cunts. I’m heading out to the bush for 5-6 weeks. I’m sure things will continue to unravel while I’m absent, but the world will still be here when I get back & y’all will be even more miserable….as nature intended.”

    Bye, juanPee, I hope you disappear and never come back. Fuck wak

  26. Davy on Sat, 18th Jul 2020 9:00 pm 

    Thanks fer dropping bye Apeman. Looking forward to yer return in five to six weeks. Hope you stick around fer the winter.

    Missed you lots. Old freind. XXX OOO

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