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Page added on May 25, 2012

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Drill, Baby, Drill! More drilling doesn’t necessarily mean more oil


The United States has a problem. An oil problem. No matter how many wells are drilled oil companies just can’t seem to raise production to anywhere near the figures required to reach the holy grail of energy independence.

Looking at the oil production data, active rigs in use and footage drilled over the last forty years it is clear that no matter how much investment is made are there just isn’t the size and quality of oil producing fields left in the U.S. any more.


Figure 1: U.S. Crude oil production (including lease condensate) and active rig count, January 1973 to January 2012.

Various news items and opinion pieces have announced that the United States is entering an exciting new era of energy independence. Figure 1 shows that the truth is a bit more sobering. We can see that over the last 40 years the overall trend for crude oil production has been steadily decreasing. There are a few anomalies however. In the late 70’s and early 80’s the rig count climbed dramatically as a response to high global oil prices. This however only produced a very slight increase in oil production over the boom period. Once the bubble burst in 1985 crude oil production continued on its downward trajectory. Rig counts fluctuated wildly until the Asian recession in 1998, recover and then dip again after the Dot-com crash of 2000-2001 and recover again until the beginning of the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008. This is where things get interesting. As the economy begins to recover after the GFC and rig counts begin rising, U.S. oil production begins rising for the first time in over 20 years. This is due largely to rigs coming online that employed hydraulic fracturing or fracking, the process that enabled oil companies to extract oil from previously marginal areas.

This increase in oil production is what pundits have been hailing as a new era for U.S. energy independence. There are a number of reasons why this is overly optimistic and these will be explored below.


Figure 2: U.S. crude oil production (including lease condensate) and U.S. footage drilled for crude oil, natural gas, and dry exploratory and developmental wells (thousand feet), January 1973 to February 2012.

Figure 2 shows footage drilled had been steadily increasing from the early 2000s but fell off during the 2008 financial crisis. Once the global economy began to recover drilling increased sharply to the highest numbers seen since the mid 1980s. The remarkable thing is this: even though drilling is at a 25 year high production has not followed suit. Since July 2009 the drilled footage has increased a whopping 105.5 percent but production has failed to follow increasing by only 7.6 percent. Clearly all is not well in the land of oil and gas.


Figure 3: Ratio of U.S. crude oil production (thousands of barrels per day) to active rig count, January 1973 to January 2012.

Figure 3 shows that for every active rig in the U.S. today roughly 2700 barrels of oil are produced. This is a far cry from the 5900 daily barrels per active rig at the beginning of 1973.


Figure 4:  Ratio of U.S. footage drilled for crude oil, natural gas and dry exploratory and developmental wells (thousand feet) to active rigs, January 1973 to January 2012.

Figure 4 shows that the ratio of footage drilled of all types to active rigs has steadily increased since 1998. This is a combination of both drilling deeper and less exploratory wells being converted into active rigs. It can costs hundreds of dollars per foot to drill so we can see that the U.S. is coming up against increasing inefficiencies with drilling to active rig conversion.

Figures 3 and 4 show that it is without a doubt that the fields being tapped today are of a far lower quality. This means far more capital must be invested in order to produce the same amount of oil as 40 years ago. With the U.S. and global economy still on very shaky ground it is questionable as to where this capital will come from. There are already concerns being raised over a labour shortage in the U.S. oil industry.

Well Servicing Magazine reports that:

“There are just not enough experienced work crews to staff many more rigs coupled with various areas of the country that do not want drilling or servicing rigs working in their backyards.

No one knows how rig counts will react any more. There is only so much iron the oil patch can handle. Rigs and tubular goods cannot materialize that fast. There might be a gradual trend upward, but it’s a slow process. The reality is that rig counts can go down much faster than they can go up.”

So even if there was no looming labour and capital crisis how soon could the U.S. gain oil independence based on current growth figures?


Figure 5: Projected U.S. crude oil production (including lease condensate) based on he trend from January 2009 to February 2012.

The U.S. currently consumes 19,500,000 barrels of oil per day. If we assume that U.S. oil consumption stays the same it will take 80 years for the U.S. to reach oil independence based on the production trend from the last three years (Figure 5), unless the active rig count increases dramatically which as we have seen above is unlikely in the current economic climate. If the U.S. hopes to grow its economy in any real sense (financial abstractions in the tertiary economy don’t count) it is clearly a ridiculous assumption that  oil consumption will not grow at the same time.

As with all future predictions only time will tell. But I am willing to bet that the only way that the U.S. will gain oil independence is by the economy contracting and jobs being lost. This is clearly not a winning platform for politicians to gain votes and so we will continue to see these Polyannaish statements based on little more than hope that the U.S. is on the brink of an energy revolution. The hard facts are more difficult to argue with but that won’t stop those trying to gain office and favour with the oil industry from promoting the idea of business as usual. Let’s hope they wake up before things get really bad.

Southern Limits

9 Comments on "Drill, Baby, Drill! More drilling doesn’t necessarily mean more oil"

  1. SOS on Fri, 25th May 2012 12:35 pm 

    False. Production problems in the US are political not real physical constraints. This author is confusing the affects of peak politics on oil supplies with the notion of peak oil.

  2. Kenz300 on Fri, 25th May 2012 12:56 pm 

    The oil industry loves it when oil prices spike. They make huge windfall profits. The oil industry and their Republican allies in Congress are doing all they can to limit competition and alternatives to the oil monopoly on transportation fuels. The drill, baby, drill crowd turned into the spill, baby, spill crowd when they spewed oil into the Gulf of Mexico. The sooner we transition to alternative energy sources the better off we will be. Bring on the electric, flex-fuel, hybrid, CNG, LNG and hydrogen fueled vehicles. We need a choice at the pump. A monopoly is only good for the monopoly and not good for the consumer.

  3. Mike on Fri, 25th May 2012 1:40 pm 

    False. At 100 dollar oil prices my industry is going wide open, drilling and producing wells as fast as it can; there is no “peak politics” short of ANWAR and offshore California restraints. Supplies have nothing to do with production rates and that was the entire point in this insightful article. We need 8,000,000,000 barrels of oil per day in the US just to function. Thats with a B. Politicans can’t fix that.

  4. SOS on Fri, 25th May 2012 1:40 pm 

    A good alternative for you would be NG for your car. An electric car is only a license to steal from eveyone else who subsidizes them to the tune of about $500,000 each. In the meantime understand what is happening:

    “The Williston Basin is well known for its middle Bakken pay zone. It is the reason most people refer to this area as the Bakken with out realizing that it is a rock unit from the Late Devonian to the Early Mississippian age. It covers 200000 square miles of the Williston Basin. It is found in the subsurface of North Dakota, Montana and Saskatchewan. The Bakken formation was named for Henry Bakken, a farmer who owned the land from which it was first discovered. Below the middle Bakken are four separate layers or benches of the Three Forks. It is possible this group could have more recoverable resource than the middle Bakken, but the bottom three benches are still being tested.”

    The Williston Basin has enough energy resources to last the USA a long, long time.

    Peak oil is a political invention not a real physical constraint. Peak politics results in the phenomenon known as peak oil, a self fulliflling prophecy for political power. Supporting policies that result in peak oil are self defeating and very expensive.

    Peak oil pundents are responsible for endless human suffering by causing artifical shortages and much higher costs.

  5. Mike on Fri, 25th May 2012 1:42 pm 

    Per year, sorry.

  6. BillT on Fri, 25th May 2012 2:37 pm 

    Perhaps the word is getting out that your home is not insurable if you have fraking anywhere near your property? Or that a bank will not loan money to buy a home in that area, meaning, you cannot sell your home. Especially if you have sold the mineral rights to the land beneath it. Yep, read your insurance/mortgage contract or ask your insurance agent or banker.

    This is a fad that will quickly be squashed by the courts. Wait and see. Besides that fact that it is becoming more and more difficult to drill anywhere as the sheeple wake up to the shafting they are getting.

  7. DC on Fri, 25th May 2012 3:36 pm 

    When this issue first came up, about the patent nonsense of amerikan ‘energy independence’, from all those ‘dirty terrorist arabs’ dontcha know, I could not help think of that scene from 1984 Where the chocolate ration was reduced, but was being hailed as an increase. I guess food is alleady there, the quauntities are going up yes, but the nutrional content has been declineing for decades.

    So in amerika expect prices increases to be hailed as decreases, and less energy as ‘more’

    Doubleplusgood amerikans!

  8. SOS on Fri, 25th May 2012 6:43 pm 

    This article ignores the political affect on oil supplies and presumes all production fall offs are a result of some kind of physical constraint.

    Peak oil is caused by peak politics not any real physical or financial constraint.

    Fracking is the focus of a lot of anger and ill will from those supporting green energy (algae, alcohol etc), coal, nuclear, wind and solar because it is making almost unlimited supplies of natural gas, and now oil, available. This is a real threat to all other forms of competing energy, especially those that are not cost effective.

    As a result we see people from those constituencies hopping on the anti fracking band wagon. We see irrational, emotional outbursts about fracking. We see downright fabrications offered as truth. We see demands for politics to stop fracking. All of this is with the aim of supporting other forms of competing energy.

    At the same time there is no real evidence that fracking has any negative affects on the environment that cant be controlled. While some populists politicians are getting on board with the peak politics/peak oil charade others are standing up for what makes sense.

    Change the politics to support orderly development of our vast energy resources and you will change your life to one of abundance, less financial stress, less anger and frustration and more opportunity.

  9. BillT on Sat, 26th May 2012 1:40 am 

    SOS, you and Kenz300 need to open your mind to reality. The Us government is doing nothing to prevent more oil from being produced. The truth is that we have reached peak production, no matter what the oil companies do. You need to get off of the oil propaganda and learn the facts. If you are under 30, you will be riding a bike by the time you retire, if you live that long.

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