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Declining Quantities Of Consumers Vs. Increasing Energy Consumption?!?

Consumption

Summary

  • I compare the UN World Population Prospects 2019 report (split by the World Bank Gross National Income data) vs. the EIA International Energy Outlook 2017.
  • I show the observed data sets from 1980 through 2018 and projected data sets from 2019 through 2050.
  • Imminent declines in the wealthier nations consumer populations are sure to mean significantly larger decelerations in Energy Consumption than presently forecast.
  • The ongoing but decelerating Poorer Nations population growth will not make up the difference.
  • A large, and likely non-linear, deceleration in global energy consumption appears likely.

Food for thought.  Utilizing data sets, rather than anecdotal evidence, can be helpful when attempting to understand the present and future realities we should anticipate.

Today, I compare the 2019 UN Population Prospects report vs. the EIA (US Energy Information Administration) International Energy Outlook 2017.

  1. I split the world’s 0-65 year-olds into roughly even populations by those nations with $4k (thousand) and above per capita purchasing power (solid blue line below) vs. those nations with per capita purchasing power below $4k (solid red line below).
  2. I compare total energy consumption, split by the same wealthier nations (dashed blue line) versus poorer nations (dashed red line).
  3. The “above $4k” nations have an average purchasing power of over $16k per capita income while those nations “below $4k” average $1.6k.  This is about a 10 fold discrepancy in purchasing and consuming power of the wealthier vs. the poorer citizens of the world for what are essentially globally consistently priced commodities and exports.
  4. The wealthier nations consume just over 88% of the worlds energy and the poor nations the remaining 12%.
  5. The data from 1980 through 2018 are actual observations while the data from 2019 through 2050 are projections.

In order to see better understand what is taking place, the chart below shows population change of the two groups on an annual change basis.  As the chart details, population change of the wealthier nations 0-65yr/old population (blue columns) has decelerated from +38 million annually in 1988 to just +5 million annually in 2019, and is set to cease growing as of 2023.  By 2035, this wealthier population is projected to be declining by about -15 million annually (this is assuming ongoing high rates of immigration, absent this, the declines will be larger).  Meanwhile, 0-65 year-old population growth among the poorer nations gently accelerated from ’88 through ’18 (+47 million to +53 million annually) but growth is now projected to continue a consistent deceleration to +35 million by 2050.  Fascinatingly, these changes in annual population growth are not expected to have significant impact on the trend growth of energy consumption (wealthier nations energy consumption=blue dashed line vs. poorer nations energy consumption=red dashed line).

Finally, detailing annual change in population and annual change in energy consumption.  As above, the annual population change of wealthier nations, (blue columns) versus poorer nations (red columns) but detailing the annual change in energy consumption of wealthier nations (blue line) versus annual change in energy consumption of poorer nations (red line).

Given the high volatility of the changing energy consumption vs. the relatively smooth population changes in the chart above, the last two charts average out the differing wealthier and poorer nations annual change in population and like annual change in energy consumption from 1980 through 2018 and 2019 through 2050.

First, Wealthier Nations…

From 1980 through 2018, wealthier nations saw an average annual increase of 24 million 0-65 year-olds versus an annual energy consumption increase of 6.9 quadrillion BTU’s.

From 2019 through 2050, wealthier nations are projected to see an average annual decline of -8 million 0-65 year-olds versus an annual increase in energy consumption by 4.8 quadrillion BTU.

And Poorer Nations…

From 1980 through 2018, poorer nations saw an average increase of 49 million 0-65 year-olds annually versus an annual energy consumption increase of 1.4 quadrillion BTU’s.

From 2019 through 2050, poorer nations are projected to see an average annual increase of 46 million 0-65 year-olds versus an annual increase of energy consumption of 1.9 quadrillion BTU’s.

From 2019 through 2050, the consumer of 88% of earths energy, the wealthier nations, are expected to increase their total energy consumption by 154 quadrillion BTU’s (+29%) versus a 62 quadrillion BTU increase among the poor nations (+87%).  This is based on an assumption of a 39% wealthy energy consumption increase on a per capita basis…versus a 33% increase on a per capita basis among the poor nations of the world.

The 2019 through 2050 wealthy energy consumption is a very strange projection that wealthier nations will significantly increase their total energy consumption against shrinking workforces, decelerating need for more infrastructure, more factories, more supply chains, etc..  Further, this is strange given continued innovation and conservation efforts in the creation and utilization of energy from all sources.

My two cents

…is the UN medium variant population data is overstating population growth (and understating population declines among the wealthy nations) and that the EIA International Energy Outlook is somewhere from mildly to wildly overstating energy consumption growth.  With a soon to be shrinking working age consumer base among the wealthier nations who do nearly 90% of the global consuming, the already existing oversupply of capacity will only grow larger.  This lack of demand growth will block the poorer nations from developing and producing further supply.  This lack of global demand will mean little to no export based growth among the poorer nations (no repeat of the “Asian tigers” or anticipated “S-curves” for India or Africa).  As these two data sets are trued up to reality (and one another), the implications for the present and future will be a very different world than is currently being projected.

Econimica blog



29 Comments on "Declining Quantities Of Consumers Vs. Increasing Energy Consumption?!?"

  1. Davy on Tue, 13th Aug 2019 7:23 pm 

    “This lack of global demand will mean little to no export based growth among the poorer nations (no repeat of the “Asian tigers” or anticipated “S-curves” for India or Africa). As these two data sets are trued up to reality (and one another), the implications for the present and future will be a very different world than is currently being projected.”

    Pretty obvious to those of us who understand limits of growth in energy, food, and water. All this consumption is about to hit a brick wall and now also from demographics. We are heading into a radically different world. If that was not enough we also have planetary and climate changes. Scary

  2. JuanP on Tue, 13th Aug 2019 7:30 pm 

    For sure Davy. You might want to rethink your plans of moving to Europe. Better to move somewhere that’s already ‘failed’. Sud murika and Asia are probably much better choices. Collapse now, avoid the rush.

  3. Davy on Tue, 13th Aug 2019 7:35 pm 

    juanpee, no plans. You and your buddies act like there are plans. You fucks are consumed with me. Get over it and get a life. WTF, did I neuter you that bad that every waking moment you are thinking Davy?? LMFAO

  4. Davy on Tue, 13th Aug 2019 7:40 pm 

    Oops, sorry for losing my widdle temper again everyone. I need to get that shit under control soon. After the collapse it’ll get my dumbass lynched, or worse.

  5. JuanP identity fraud on Tue, 13th Aug 2019 7:42 pm 

    Davy on Tue, 13th Aug 2019 7:40 pm

    Oops, sorry for losing my widdle temper again everyone. I need to get that shit under control soon. After the collapse it’ll get my dumbass lynched, or worse.

  6. Duncan Idaho on Tue, 13th Aug 2019 8:07 pm 

    Disobedience, in the eyes of any one who has read history, is man’s original virtue. It is through disobedience that progress has been made, through disobedience & through rebellion.

    — Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man Under Socialism

  7. JuanP on Tue, 13th Aug 2019 8:19 pm 

    “The Distortion Is Grotesque” – Google Insider Turns Over 950 Pages Documenting Bias To DoJ
    A former Google insider claiming the company created algorithms to hide its political bias within artificial intelligence platforms – in effect targeting particular words, phrases and contexts to promote, alter, reference or manipulate perceptions of Internet content – delivered roughly 950 pages of documents to the Department of Justice’s Antitrust division Friday. The former Google insider, who has already spoken in to the nonprofit organization Project Veritas, met with SaraACarter.com on several occasions last week. He was interviewed in silhouette, to conceal his identity, in group’s latest film, which they say exposes bias inside the social media platform. Several weeks prior, the insider mailed a laptop to the DOJ containing the same information delivered on Friday, they said. The former insider is choosing to remain anonymous until Project Verita’s James O’Keefe reveals his identity tomorrow (Wednesday). He told this reporter on his recent trip to Washington D.C. that the documents he turned over to the Justice Department will provide proof that Google has been manipulating the algorithms and the evidence of how it was done, the insider said.

  8. JuanP on Tue, 13th Aug 2019 8:20 pm 

    OOps, I forgot to mention that is from zero hedge my favorite source.

  9. JuanP identity fraud on Tue, 13th Aug 2019 8:21 pm 

    Duncan Idaho on Tue, 13th Aug 2019 8:07 pm

  10. Davy on Tue, 13th Aug 2019 9:02 pm 

    Nice try juanpee. Everyone knows I’m the only one here dumb enough to be obsessed with copying and pasting zero IQ articles.

  11. Davy on Tue, 13th Aug 2019 9:05 pm 

    Your opinions upset my feelings Idaho. Your on my hate list too.

    dumbass

  12. Robert Inget on Wed, 14th Aug 2019 7:02 am 

    Thee day the yuan replaces USD.

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-Prepares-Its-Nuclear-Option-In-Trade-War.html

  13. Robert Inget on Wed, 14th Aug 2019 9:32 am 

    EIA Repore, Note consumption Numbers

    Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending August 9, 2019

    U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.3 million barrels per day during the week
    ending August 9, 2019, which was 475,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s
    average. Refineries operated at 94.8% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline
    production decreased last week, averaging 10.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel
    production decreased last week, averaging 5.1 million barrels per day.

    U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.7 million barrels per day last week, up by 566,000
    barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports
    averaged about 7.1 million barrels per day, 12.0% less than the same four-week period
    last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline
    blending components) last week averaged 805,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel
    imports averaged 126,000 barrels per day.

    U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum
    Reserve) increased by 1.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 440.5 million
    barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% above the five year average for this time
    of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.4 million barrels last week and
    are about 4% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and
    blending components inventories both decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
    decreased by 1.9 million barrels last week and are about 3% below the five year average
    for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 3.2 million barrels last
    week and are about 9% above the five year average for this time of year. Total
    commercial petroleum inventories increased last week by 2.4 million barrels last week.

    Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.6 million barrels per
    day, up by 3.7% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline
    product supplied averaged 9.7 million barrels per day, up by 0.6% from the same period
    last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.0 million barrels per day over the
    past four weeks, up by 1.0% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was
    up 2.1% compared with the same four-week period last year.

  14. Robert Inget on Wed, 14th Aug 2019 9:40 am 

    Consumption far stronger than last few weeks.

    THE ENTIRE PREDICATE for lower oil prices, besides more or less normal inventories, is based on the (false) assumption of falling demand.

    Now, attention will once again be based on supply.

    China, winning Trump’s trade war.

  15. Robert Inget on Wed, 14th Aug 2019 12:10 pm 

    When ‘algos’ are in charge, hide.

  16. Robert Inget on Wed, 14th Aug 2019 12:30 pm 

    Trump wants to take FULL control of his War on Trade.

    Hitler fired all generals that disagreed with his leadership.
    In 1944 Hitler took over managing the war himself.

  17. Outcast_Searcher on Wed, 14th Aug 2019 12:36 pm 

    Now, if only people over age 65 suddenly stopped being consumers. If they stopped driving, heating and cooling their homes, eating, etc.

    And of course, net, they consume a LOT more medical services, which produces a LOT of income for various entities.

    Just because the economy shifts a bit over time doesn’t mean the usual doomer trope is valid, but thanks for playing.

    If resource limit issues hit due to overpopulation issues, people over 65 is NOT going to be a primary factor.

    Geez, think a bit and get a clue. It’s like the doomers are so desperate for a ghost story that they just abandon simple logic.

  18. Cloggie on Wed, 14th Aug 2019 1:32 pm 

    Dutch banking giant ING: German Golden Decade over:

    https://think.ing.com/snaps/germany-the-end-of-a-golden-decade/

    “Germany: The end of a golden decade”

    For a decade, Germany was the world’s #1 star performer on international markets:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_current_account_balance

    Giants:

    1. Germany
    2. Japan
    3. China
    4. Netherlands
    5. Taiwan
    6. South-Korea
    7. Switzerland
    8. Singapore
    9. Italy

    Bottom of the barrel: Anglo countries.

    That Golden Decade of globalism is now over because the US lost the competition on international markets and president Trump has little choice than conduct the protectionist policies as he does.

    What comes next is a period of great destabilization, de-dollarization, militarisation, protectionism and geopolitical reconfiguration and end of empire, that is going to be replaced by a multipolar world order. Brexit will split the West, EU-army, populism winning in Europe and EU-Russian rapprochement.

  19. Duncan Idaho on Wed, 14th Aug 2019 2:59 pm 

    Bird watching today, just got home.
    Why is the Dow down 750 points?
    What did the Fat Boy do?

  20. makati1 on Wed, 14th Aug 2019 6:20 pm 

    There are signs of intelligence in some of the above posts, but certainly not in the ones by Davy and his doppelgangers.

    DOW up. DOW down. Who cares? It’s all lies and bullshit. Better to go to one of Trump’s casinos. At least you can enjoy the evening knowing that the house is always the winner or it would not be in business.

    BTW: all you stock market casino players, you cannot win against super computers. They will always be a micro second ahead of you.

  21. makati1 on Wed, 14th Aug 2019 6:54 pm 

    Signs of stupidity in Amerika:

    “”He’s Doing The Right Thing”: Iowa Farmers Back Trump, Brush Off Trade War.

    Mr. Prevo showed zero uncertainty when asked whether he would vote for Mr. Trump again in 2020. “You bet,” he said.”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-14/hes-doing-right-thing-iowa-farmers-back-trump-brush-trade-war

    “The Average US Farm Is $1.3 Million In Debt, And Now The Worst Farming Crisis In Modern History Is Upon Us”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-13/average-us-farm-13-million-debt-and-now-worst-farming-crisis-modern-history-upon-us

    “Send in the clowns
    Don’t bother, they’re here”- Stephen Sondheim

    And living in Iowa.

  22. Robert Inget on Wed, 14th Aug 2019 6:58 pm 

    What troubles me most;
    While Miley & Liam’s split seemed amicable, a new report claims that their sudden breakup was actually on account of infidelity by the singer & drug use on his part.

  23. Duncan Idaho on Wed, 14th Aug 2019 7:10 pm 

    Hint:
    VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short-Term ETN (TVIX)
    NasdaqGM – NasdaqGM Real Time Price. Currency in USD
    23.19+4.85 (+26.44%)
    At close: 4:00PM EDT

  24. Cloggie on Thu, 15th Aug 2019 1:42 am 

    The Brexit “House of Cards” drama in Britain goes into the next stage, the attempt to overthrow the fresh PM BoJo:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7357789/Labour-leader-writes-rebel-Tory-MPs-offering-fight-new-referendum-Prime-Minister.html

    “Jeremy Corbyn’s Number 10 coup: Labour leader writes to rebel Tory MPs offering to fight for a new referendum IF they help to make him caretaker Prime Minister to stop No Deal immediately”

    “John Bercow, speaker for the house of commons is adamant that there will be no suspension of parliament to ensure a No Deal Brexit”

    The EU is well advised to say nothing other than every now and then repeating “May-deal or no-deal”, sticking to that position, do-or-die, and seriously prepare for no-deal.

    New factors that act in favor of the EU:

    – thin 1-man Tory majority in the Commons
    – Bercow
    – Pelosi and US pro-Ireland lobby
    – the weak negotatiation position of the UK vs US

    Corbyn taking over from BoJo as “caretaker PM” is unlikely, the overthrow of PM BoJo much more so. What the EU could do at the last moment to make BoJo sign the withdrawal agreement, is giving him some little piece of red meat so he can save his face. NOT dropping the backstop, but something smaller, that can be sold by BoJo as a victory to the Brexit boobs and he can remain in office (the most important thing for him anyway).

    Brexit is going to happen, that much is certain, thank God. But the negotiated deal has become much more likely over the passed few days. In that way we can park Britain as a harmless European economic vassal, rather than having an unsinkable US aircraft carrier before our European coast, while PBM goes after the real meat: Heartland USA and “liberate back” those “poor whites” who are on the verge of becoming bolshevized, after Trump.

    America was a mistake that is going to be corrected, by entire Eurasia.

  25. Cloggie on Thu, 15th Aug 2019 1:46 am 

    Hong Kong about to be crushed:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-7357783/Are-brink-new-Tiananmen-Square-horror.html

    “Are we on the brink of a new Tiananmen Square horror? Chinese troops and tanks mass close to Hong Kong’s border after weeks of protests in chilling echo of 1989 killings”

    Expect Taiwan to be followed soon after.

  26. Cloggie on Thu, 15th Aug 2019 1:55 am 

    Global corporations as the US equivalent of the Soviet COMINTERN. Corporations prefer the antifa/lbtq rainbow flag over the flag of the Confederacy:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_International

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7357201/Google-whistleblower-reveals-tech-giant-DOES-blacklist-news-sites.html

    “Google whistleblower reveals tech giant DOES blacklist right-wing news sites and says the company called police when he leaked the evidence, leaving him ‘fearing for his life'”

    Corporations as globalist, racial egalitarian (financially very anti-egalitarian) and de facto anti-white. Formerly white territories are to be turned into huge entrepreneurial areas, without concern for historically grown identities and every boob is expected to speak English, the language of the globalists. It is one giant entrepreneurial coup, intellectually backed-up by the (((ideologues))) of the Frankfurter Schule. Antifa and CEOs are on the same side. Everybody is in name pro-democracy, that in reality has ceased to exist and has been bought up by the MSM glorified billionaire oligarchs, half of them Jews, as the new heroes of the system.

  27. Cloggie on Thu, 15th Aug 2019 2:03 am 

    Brexit is about turning the UK into a mirror-image of the US: no need to behave responsibly in any way, it is a free pass for the Holy Economy:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7358069/Arron-Banks-sparks-fury-sick-joke-Greta-Thunberg-drowning.html

    “‘How would you feel if someone posted this about your daughters?’ Brexiteer Arron Banks sparks fury with sick ‘joke’ about climate change activist Greta Thunberg DROWNING during yacht voyage to US”

    (In reality Anglos have long lost the competition on international markets, only the dollar reserve currency keeps the joint from sinking, for the moment. Eurasia is working on it).

  28. Cloggie on Thu, 15th Aug 2019 3:19 pm 

    “US-UK trade deal on UK terms latest:”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7359599/UK-accept-food-standards-wants-post-Brexit-trade-deal-claims-American-farming-chief.html

    “Chlorine-washed chicken on the menu? UK MUST accept US food standards if it wants a post-Brexit trade deal because Donald Trump will not risk ‘turning his back’ on rural voters, claims American farming chief”

    UK defies US:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7360717/Gibraltar-RELEASES-Iranian-tanker-defiance-Trump-administration-tried-seize-ship.html

    “Gibraltar RELEASES Iranian tanker in defiance of the US after the Trump administration made last-ditch legal move to seize the vessel at center of stand-off with Tehran”

  29. Cloggie on Thu, 15th Aug 2019 3:45 pm 

    Anti-BoJo coalition takes shape:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/15/lib-dems-urged-to-back-corbyn-as-interim-pm-to-stop-no-deal-brexit

    “Lib Dems urged to back Corbyn as interim PM to stop no-deal Brexit”

    Just sign the G*d-damn deal and get Brexit over with.

    Europe is from now on the senior, you the junior. 1981 “Anglo-Saxon supremacy” just evaporated.

    Europe is back.

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