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Colossal Fossil Total Projects Peak Oil by 2030, Still ‘Leaves it to Others’ to Meet Paris Targets

Consumption

A shareholder action group says TotalEnergies is leaving it to others to meet the carbon reduction goals in the Paris agreement, after the Paris-based colossal fossil predicted the world will hit peak oil demand around 2030 but still produce 40 to 64 million barrels per day in 2050.

At Total’s annual Investor Day Monday and Tuesday, CEO Patrick Pouyanné said the company expects virtually no decrease in oil consumption by 2030, Follow This reported yesterday in an email release.

“According to our trajectory, by 2030 we are more around 90 million [barrels per day], and that means that we need to continue to invest in some oil and gas fields,” Pouyanné said. While some analyses have called for a threshold of 70 million barrels by decade’s end, “we don’t know how this decrease could happen,” he added.

A chart accompanying the Follow This release has Total’s more ambitious scenario projecting a 20% emissions reduction by 2030, 20% more than the company’s CEO seems to be assuming.

With his statement to investors, Pouyanné “bluntly says he doesn’t believe that the Paris accord—signed by almost 200 countries in his own city—will be met,” said Follow This founder Mark van Baal.

Total’s 2021 Energy Outlook shows oil’s decline beginning “sooner than it previously forecast, as more nations crack down on fossil fuels to fight global warming,” Bloomberg reports. It also has renewable energy investments increasing “significantly” through mid-century.

Both future scenarios in the outlook report, released Monday, incorporate net-zero pledges that several countries have published in the last year. Total “also cut its forecast for global emissions, reflecting pledges from major companies to become carbon neutral in coming decades,” the news agency writes.

Oilprice.com says Total’s Momentum scenario lays out what could happen if countries continue making net-zero commitments, with China peaking its emissions by the middle of this decade and hitting a decarbonization threshold of roughly 60% over the next 30 years. It shows gas playing a key role in the transition off carbon, with oil demand still standing at 64 million barrels per day in 2050. The somewhat more ambitious Rupture scenario still calls for daily production of 40 million barrels of oil in that year.

In TotalEnergies’ view of the future, “net-zero will require massive adoption of sustainable liquid fuels—with biofuels first and hydrogen-based fuels after that—in all modes of transportation,” Oilprice writes. So “Total is betting on profitably growing its liquefied natural gas (LNG) and renewable businesses as part of its strategy and net-zero agenda.”

Total published its projections in a moment when fossil fuel prices have been on the rise. But whereas past price increases might have triggered a boom in oil and gas exploration and extraction, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) says this time is different.

“While volatile energy commodity prices have been sharply increasing globally,” writes IEEFA energy analyst Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, “renewable technologies have been steadily decreasing” in cost, with utility-scale solar down by 85%, concentrating solar power by 68%, onshore wind by 56%, and offshore wind by 48% in the last decade.

While Jaller-Makarewicz’s analysis focuses primarily on natural gas, coal, and electricity prices, oil has been on a tear, as well: the North American oil price, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), stood at US$79.82 per barrel late Monday, and has averaged $64.90 per barrel so far this year, compared to $39.68 last year. European Brent crude tipped above $80 yesterday. But in contrast to past industry shifts, this year’s price spikes just reflect a fossil fuel sector that is becoming more volatile and riskier, IEEFA says.

As a result, “global investors are accelerating their collective move away from the massive climate-related risks associated with fossil fuel assets and building capacity so as to increasingly deploy huge amounts of capital into renewable energy infrastructure projects,” said Tim Buckley, the institute’s director energy finance studies, Australia/South Asia.

“The continued expansion of investment shows the resilience of the renewable energy sector despite the economic disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

the energy mix



6 Comments on "Colossal Fossil Total Projects Peak Oil by 2030, Still ‘Leaves it to Others’ to Meet Paris Targets"

  1. FamousDrScanlon on Sat, 2nd Oct 2021 2:45 pm 

    Paris targets don’t mean shit. Your grand kids are fucked-fucked-fucked.

    There’s way too many articles to list individually.

    2nd October 2021 Today’s Round-Up of Climate News

    https://climateandeconomy.com/2021/10/02/2nd-october-2021-todays-round-up-of-climate-news/

  2. Duncan Idaho on Sat, 2nd Oct 2021 6:05 pm 

    ‘Didn’t Do His Job’: School Cop Who Shot Teen Was Only Hired Months Ago

    These “rent a pig” are insecure cowardly assholes.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/eddie-f-gonzalez-long-beach-school-safety-officer-who-shot-mona-rodriguez-was-only-hired-months-ago?ref=home?ref=home

  3. Cloggie on Mon, 4th Oct 2021 8:11 am 

    “No significant Solar Panel Degradation After 21 Years”

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2021/10/04/no-significant-solar-panel-degradation-after-21-years/

    These panels go on for 50-100 years.

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2021/10/04/financial-yield-solar-energy/

    “Financial Yield Solar Energy”

    Within 6 months, the financial yield of a solar panel in the Netherlands has threefold. Now is the time to invest in renewable energy with these skyrocketing fossil fuel prices.

  4. Lt. Colonel Bree Fram of JetBlue Flight 261 CELEBRATES ELITE WHITEY SUPERTARD FamousDrScanlon he pushes MUZZ-19 on others but he doesnt MUZZ-19 himself on Mon, 4th Oct 2021 9:00 am 

    He’s busy and spending a lot of time at

    thecovidblog

    elite whitey (((SUPERTARD))) REM has this:

    Here’s a little agit for the never-believer yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Here’s a little ghost for the offering yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

    Here’s a truck stop instead of <<<SUPERTARD FamousDrScanlon is here now. and the other is not

    Saint Peter’s yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah <<<< this is where elite whitey (((supertard))) WILLIE GARSON is now.

    we’re celebrating elite whitey (((supertard))) ALICE who rejected MUZZ-19 which has semen from DROPOUT-19 he mixed it in his basement using empty paint cans and sell for muchacho dinero

    the number of elite whitey (((supertards))) MUZZ-19’d themselves is huge. It’s gonna cause a new holocaustinanity

    anyways, please feel at ease among friends, we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here.

  5. Duncan Idaho on Mon, 4th Oct 2021 10:01 am 

    ” It’s not a lie if you believe it.”

    -George Costanza

  6. Cloggie on Fri, 8th Oct 2021 5:58 am 

    “Hydrogen Pilot Homes in the Netherlands”

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2021/10/08/hydrogen-pilot-homes-in-the-netherlands/

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