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China, OPEC and the future of energy

China, OPEC and the future of energy thumbnail

Already guzzling more energy than the United States to feed its power-hungry manufacturing sector, China is expected to use twice as much energy as the United States by 2040.

This from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest International Energy Outlook, released Thursday.

The central theme, which hasn’t changed much in the last several years, is that under current policy, the world will use a lot more energy and emit a lot more greenhouse gases by 2040, mostly thanks to its continued reliance on fossil fuels.

Worldwide energy use is expected to grow 56% by 2040. While renewable and nuclear energy are expected to be the fastest growing sources, fossil fuels will still account for nearly 80% of our energy use by the end of the time period. As such, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are expected to rise 46%.

“That is going to have to be addressed in some way,” EIA Administrator Adam Siemiski said during a press conference.

Most of the increase in energy use and emissions is expected to come from the developing world, and Siemiski noted that a rise in energy use in and of itself isn’t a bad thing.

“This is rising prosperity,” he said. The question is, “how do we accommodate rising prosperity and still maintain a good energy security and environmental outlook?”

Related: China trounces U.S. in green energy investments

Oil prices are also expected to remain high: $163 a barrel by 2040, in 2011 dollars.

Other highlights from EIA’s analysis:

China is expected to embark on a nuclear power plant building binge.

And these five countries will be a real pain for OPEC, pumping a big chunk of the world’s non-OPEC oil supply. That couldĀ put pressure on the cartel to either cut production or accept lower prices:



6 Comments on "China, OPEC and the future of energy"

  1. rollin on Sat, 27th Jul 2013 4:14 pm 

    Terrible, now China, Russia and India will become potential nuclear waste lands. They better use Gen IV reactors or the world is in for far too many nasty surprises.

  2. bobinget on Sat, 27th Jul 2013 6:32 pm 

    Too cheap to meter.
    would you prefer not to know?

    If so called ‘non conventional’ (oil) is not being counted
    today, at what point in history can we begin?

    I guess the first rotary drill was considered at the time, unconventional.

  3. Norm on Sat, 27th Jul 2013 9:17 pm 

    hey peak oil dudes … maybe one of you can post this article.

    its another article about all the govamint welfare bum researchers, whose science project don’t work. so much for a fusion energy source.

    i cant post it cause i am not smart enough never figured it out. guess i will go chop wood now, 3 months and will need it.

  4. BillT on Sun, 28th Jul 2013 12:32 am 

    Even IF China is able to double it’s energy use, it will still use HALF of the Per Capita use as the US. After all, we shipped a big chunk of our energy needs to Asia along with the jobs and profits. It comes back as mostly consumer junk at Walmart.

  5. DC on Sun, 28th Jul 2013 3:27 am 

    Exactly BillT, China is not using twice as much energy as the US, the US just shipped the energy over there. Sure, they use some for themselves, but the vast majority of the energy use is US and western MNC making plastic salad shooters, the re-importing them back ‘home’. Even with the permanent recession in full swing here, China is STILL making all our salad shooters, depression or not. They are the only ones that can anymore. So, yea, instead of the energy being burnt here, it simply gets burnt over there. The scales stay balanced. Too subtle an argument for amerikans though. Im sure a few of them are starting to think China is ‘stealing’ amerikas oil or something…

    But hey, this is CNN….

  6. Newfie on Sun, 28th Jul 2013 10:44 am 

    “Worldwide energy use is expected to grow 56% by 2040.”

    Linear extrapolation is for idiots. Most people are idiots.

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