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China Oil Demand to Peak in 2040


Oil demand from China’s transportation sector will peak in 2030 and flatten thereafter, mainly due to falling gasoline demand for passenger vehicles that become more efficient and increasingly electricity-driven, the International Energy Agency said in its latest World Energy Outlook report on Tuesday. The flattening of China’s oil demand growth reflects its fundamental change from an industry-driven economy to one based on services and consumption, Platts reported. It also has major implications for Beijing’s reliance on oil imports, energy security and the overall energy mix. “China’s energy future will not be a continuation of previous trends,” the IEA said, adding that the country’s energy choices will have profound implications for global markets, trade and investment flows. Oil will still remain the backbone of China’s transport fuel demand till 2030, growing by 3.3% per year on average, but its share will fall to just above three-quarters, from nearly 90% today, the IEA said. The remaining 25% of transport fuels will be biofuels, natural gas and electricity.


15 Comments on "China Oil Demand to Peak in 2040"

  1. Davy on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 7:34 am 

    “China Oil Demand to Peak in 2040”
    How many here think the world will be status quo by 2040? Raise your hands. We are on the cusp of change and what could be radical decline. At a minimum, let’s say the status quo more or less holds, how many think we can project out to 2040 in this new age of instability and determine a oil peak demand in China? I find these MSM articles are just for consumption. It is possible in 3-5 years China will be at peak demand.

    China is already in the beginnings of a serious slow down one anticipated following the coronation of XI and his 5 year rule. The Chinese authorities are a proud controlling bunch and they think they can have their cake and eat it. They want to slow down the credit excesses as they continue growth. IOW they want the fruits of a recession without the pain and stigma. Isn’t that convenient. BTW, the rest of us should look towards China with concern because China is the primary global credit driver at the moment. They represent a huge amount of global demand and the knock on demand that occurs from economic velocity.

    What happens in China these days does not stay in China. All nations are seriously exposed to Chinese contagions. This is especially true of the Anglosphere that is part of the Chinese housing bubble. All US and European banks are greatly exposed to a downturn in China. 2040 is a joke. These people need to get with the times let’s talk a recession then let’s see what happens.

  2. CAM on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 8:32 am 

    So, oil demand will decrease because China will become a service economy. Really? Well then, either someone else will be doing all the manufacturing and using up all the oil, or we will live in a world without manufactured goods. The entire world will be a service economy? Don’t think that will happen!

  3. rockman on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 10:02 am 

    Dave – Not that I’m any better at such predictions but I think you might be a tad pessimistic about China’s future. And not that history always repeats it self. But US oil consumption began zooming up in the late 1800’s and continued to the early 1950’s…about a 60+ year run. And the slowed significantly for 10 tears and then boomed for 10 years before reaching US peak oil consumption.

    Thus the industrial age had reached the US in the early 1900’s. But obviously not China for a variety of reasons. But now China has entered its industrial age…so to speak. Of course this is China in the early 2000’s and not the US in the early 1900’s…lots of differences. But some of them do favor increased oil consumption in China. Such as a rapid growth of the middle class which did not happen in the US until many decades after consumption began to boom here.

    Time will tell for China but I would bet consumption will increase for more then a few years. Even if global oil production were to peak, lets say, in 2020 that doesn’t mean China won’t be able to continue increasing consumption for decades to come. What oil is left to produce will go to those economies that can afford to buy it at those future prices.

  4. Cloggie on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 10:26 am 

    Not that I’m any better at such predictions but I think you might be a tad pessimistic about China’s future.

    Pessimistic? Make that wishful thinking.

  5. Plantagenet on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 12:47 pm 

    China’s oil demand peaks in 2040

    India’s oil demand peaks in 2060

    Indonesia’s oil demand peaks in 2080

    Africa’s oil demand peaks in 2100

    Global Warming destroys planet in 2120


  6. Shortend on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 8:37 pm 

    Another BS article…peak demand will meet peak output…

  7. makati1 on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 8:42 pm 

    Other news from China:

    “China builds world’s fastest wind tunnel to test weapons that could strike US within 14 minutes”

    “Hypersonic aircraft are defined as vehicles that travel at speeds of Mach 5, five times the speed of sound, or above.

    The US military tested HTV-2, a Mach 20 unmanned aircraft in 2011 but the hypersonic flight lasted only a few minutes before the vehicle crashed into the Pacific Ocean.

    In March, China conducted seven successful test flights of its hypersonic glider WU-14, also known as the DF-ZF, at speeds of between Mach 5 and Mach 10.”

    Duck & Cover! LOL

  8. Davy on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 12:49 am 

    mad kat, the war pig, you sure love them there weapons of mass destruction. What is it about you and the love of the smell of death?

  9. Davy on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 1:31 am 

    Post party “party” hangover? The party was having cake and eating it and now they are trying that in the real world. You can’t have the fruits of the cleansing of a recession and not the pain and that is what China is trying to do. They want to tame the multiple bubbles and curb the excesses. It is not working and every one of you should be concerned because China is the next financial crisis and we will all be a part of it. The new normal of the financial crisis post 08 driven by the FED went into a new normal in 2015 with China. Japan and Europe have done their part too but that was just keeping themselves afloat. China kept the global bubbles going and that is likely ending and in a matter of months the “S” is going THTF. All good things come to an end especially fake reality. This is likely going to be a process of event because the world is so interconnected and managed there is nowhere to panic and run to so panics will pop and be managed (Hopefully). But that management will likely be in decline and decay.

    The days of credit growth are nearly over and with it a degree of prosperity for the rich but remember the rich have been the ones generating the trickle down to the gutted “main streets” around the world. Now that is going to be gone too. Just more pain for the majority of the world who now will not even benefit form the crumbs. Think about all those pensions and unfunded liabilities that represent the global safety nets. This is not good but the techno optimist just point to more and more development. What they fail to do is say how it will be paid for especially when a global recession or worse hits.

    “Despite Massive Liquidity Injection, Chinese Stocks, Commodities Head For Worst Week Of Year”

    “The PBOC stepped up cash injections this week, suggesting authorities are trying to shore up financial markets as a selloff in bonds spreads to equities… but it is not working! As Bloomberg reports, the central bank has already added a net 510 billion yuan ($77 billion) via open-market operations into the financial system this week, matching the third biggest weekly injection this year.”

    “The increase in cash additions will help soothe market sentiment,” said Qin Han, chief fixed-income analyst at Guotai Junan Securities Co. “But the decline will not be reversed, as the market’s biggest concern is not tight liquidity but tougher financial regulation.”

  10. GregT on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 1:39 am 

    What’s the deal with your Zerohedge fascination delusionalist?

  11. Davy on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 1:46 am 

    What’s the deal with your Zerohedge fascination delusionalist?

  12. GregT on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 1:46 am 

    “mad kat, the war pig, you sure love them there weapons of mass destruction. What is it about you and the love of the smell of death?”

    Says the delusionalist, who fully supports US military adventurism, and the use of WMDs to mass murder millions of innocent people around the world, who do not have the capability of fighting back.

  13. makati1 on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 5:10 pm 

    “Good as Gold!” A quote well understood by China.

    “Since all non-monetary gold imported and mine production ends up in the private sector, my estimate for total gold owned by the Chinese people now stands at 16,575 tonnes. Added by a more speculative estimate of 4,000 tonnes held by the PBOC makes 20,575 tonnes….

    Until new evidence shows up my best guess is that China net imported 777 tonnes in the first nine months of 2017, sourced from all corners of the world: the UK, South-Africa, Australia, Switzerland, the US, Middle-East and Philippines.”

    Yep! Good as gold.

  14. TheNationalist on Sat, 18th Nov 2017 2:01 am 

    Confuscious say : “when chinaman get hungry for big cock compensators world will cook to death!”

  15. Cloggie on Sat, 18th Nov 2017 2:06 am

    Tony the Bliar, who single-handedly turned London into a Caliphate, now has discovered the “yellow menace”. First he all of a sudden sucks up to Trump by saying that Trump is right in putting his own country first… “every country should do that do that” [*], but please, please Donald, don’t walk away from your allies in Europe.

    [*] That btw interestingly goes against the logic of the NWO, where the West was supposed to transfer all its industries to China

    Dear mr Blair, Trump hasn’t walked away from Europe, he just kindly requested that Europe should carry more of the mutual defense burden, where earlier US governments quietly liked it that they could hold Europe in a subservient position (“empire”).

    Trump, who had a copy of Hitler’s speeches under his bed…

    …has an enemy alright and it ain’t Europe, but instead “The Swamp”, the same enemy Putin also has. And Xi. And the Austrian. It is that hidden force within American politics, media and finance that is using American resources to attempt to ram the entire world in its empire. On this forum the best representation of that force is talmudturd apneaman and his three toy-goys davy, boat and sissy. And although all these three goys have expressed at some point their despair with US immigration policies and want to see it stopped, that of course is not going to happen, as whiteys like these clowns have nothing to say in America.

    Trump gets along very well with both Europeans Macron and Putin. And the fact that Putin kicked US ass in Syria doesn’t bother Trump at all. Because, you see, Trump and Putin have the same enemy, they both like to see defeated:

    Back to the Bliar:

    His former adviser Jonathan Powell has stated the obvious when he said that Brexit has made the UK irrelevant:

    Which is true. Britain has placed itself outside the world’s premier market end culture circle and at the same time estranged itself from America by battling Donald J. Trump, the best president white America ever had. Poor British elite, wrong-footed by its own population. The British elite will have a lot explaining to do when the consequences of Brexit will become apparent (if Brexit happens at all).

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