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China is Redrawing the World’s Energy Map

Consumption
China’s outsize energy needs and its reliance on overseas suppliers have underpinned its foreign policy for decades. Now those needs are changing. The planet’s largest oil and coal importer wants to become greener and more self-reliant and has already taken strides toward those goals. The rest of the world needs to pay attention.By 2060 the world’s second-largest economy aims to transform its power generation mix from roughly 70% from fossil fuels today to 90% from renewable sources such as wind and solar, as well as hydro and nuclear power, according to BloombergNEF’s China Policy Bulletin in April. That will cut its reliance on resource-rich jurisdictions and on sea lanes controlled by other states. In fact, Beijing’s dominance of battery materials and production may leave the rest of the world uncomfortably dependent on China in the green economy. The Western response—including U.S. government spending on technology research, mining, and processing and a European effort to build up supply chains and recycling capacity—is just beginning.Energy security, always a worry for China, gained more attention after the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s ended the supply of Soviet crude. It became a bigger priority when China became a net oil importer in the 1990s. Last year, China accounted for roughly a sixth of global oil consumption. Just over 70% of that came from overseas. Oil and gas from Chinese-held investments abroad satisfied less than a fifth of its domestic demand, and much of that fuel travels through chokepoints like the Straits of Malacca that are vulnerable to a naval blockade, in Beijing’s eyes. 

President Xi Jinping’s focus on net-zero emissions by 2060 is, yes, an effort at climate leadership from the world’s largest greenhouse gas producer and a recognition of the importance of environmental goals. But diversifying China’s energy sources and increasing efficiency are valuable aims for reasons that are geostrategic, too. The 14th Five-Year Plan earlier this year paired green ambition with a focus on economic recovery and security, with references to the efficient use of coal, the expansion of oil and gas stockpiles, and exploration at home. Beijing has sought to build up its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The move away from hydrocarbons is a shift toward alternatives where Beijing has a tighter grasp of the supply chain.

That change won’t be instant. China’s energy consumption increased last year, even as the pandemic led to a drop around the world. Heavy industry is proving tough to decarbonize. The National Energy Administration has come under fire for being too lax on new coal plants, and the dirtiest fossil fuel will still account for more than half of China’s energy mix in 2021. That can’t be reduced quickly; Beijing will continue to lean on coal-fired power as long as economic growth remains the top priority.

China’s oil consumption is also still rising. While it may peak this decade, as China National Petroleum Corp. forecasts, it won’t drop rapidly from there. Much will depend on how quickly China electrifies its passenger vehicle and truck fleet. Bo Kong at the University of Oklahoma, who has written extensively on Chinese energy policy and national security, says oil will also remain necessary for modern warfare. Gas, seen in Beijing as a transition fuel, will take even longer to fade. There won’t be an all-or-nothing switch into solar panels and carbon capture storage.

Still, China’s energy transformation may well come faster than many suppliers and rivals are prepared for.

Power Shift

Consider Russia, which has a political and economic system that leans heavily on hydrocarbons. With no Plan B, it needs Asia, and China in particular, to keep consuming enough fossil fuels to make up for weaker demand elsewhere. So President Vladimir Putin’s government is spending more than $10 billion on railroad upgrades to boost coal exports to big Asian markets. Rosneft PJSC, the country’s biggest oil producer, has ties with its Chinese counterparts. Mainland investment is crucial to Arctic gas plans, too. What happens in Moscow if Beijing moves too swiftly?

Saudi Arabia has also been pivoting toward Asia as Europe sets the pace on decarbonization. China, where Saudi Arabia already vies with Russia as the top oil supplier, is the largest market. While China’s short-term dependence on the Middle East may well increase, the political repercussions of a faster-than-expected shift would be dramatic.

The future looks even bleaker for countries that relied on resource-backed loans from Beijing, and Angola has already pushed back repayments. That’s before considering the impact of shifting energy financing priorities—in June, China’s largest bank scrapped plans to fund a $3 billion coal-fired plant in Zimbabwe.

As the world heads toward a renewable energy mix, Beijing is poised to claim greater control of what comes next. Take cobalt, a crucial component in batteries. Chinese-owned companies have invested heavily in Congo, the world’s largest source of the metal, and dominance is greatest in cobalt refining. It’s a similar story with lithium, where China accounts for almost three-quarters of lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity. Roughly half of electric cars are made in China.

Greater self-reliance doesn’t have to lead to hoarding or autarky. China will ship battery metals and finished products to the West, too. And, after all, China has been diversifying its energy sources for years, building oil and gas pipelines through neighbors such as Myanmar, Russia, and Kazakhstan to avoid dependence on ocean routes. But an electrifying China will be in a very different negotiating position.

China’s energy consumption has affected its diplomacy for decades. It became a bigger player in the Middle East—where it’s managed to avoid political entanglement, balancing relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel—and has ventured into Venezuela and Sudan, pouring overseas development finance into fossil fuel production. As a latecomer to major hydrocarbon investments, China was less able to compete in established jurisdictions, and so it pushed to go where others feared to tread, says Xuanli Liao, a lecturer on international relations and energy security studies at the University of Dundee in Scotland.

It hasn’t always gone to plan. Some investments proved hasty or unwise and some political crises hard to manage. Yuan-denominated oil remains a small fraction of the world crude market, despite China’s efforts to muscle into the U.S. dollar-heavy commodities trade. The idea that owning equity shares of oil fields and producers would significantly increase security proved misguided.

Beijing’s diplomacy doesn’t focus exclusively on satisfying resource hunger. China’s Arctic policy is concerned with access to alternative shipping lanes and broader geopolitical clout, not just oil, gas, or rare earth minerals. In Africa, it’s won political support for its claim to Taiwan—in addition to crude. China’s dispute over territorial claims in the South China Sea isn’t primarily about oil and gas. But energy concerns, so central to national security, are never far away. Energy is the glue for international relationships, even when it’s China that’s building and maintaining the nuclear plants or financing coal power.

That adhesive is changing. The global pivot to a green economy means dealing with different materials and industrial processes. We may still need oil, gas, and coal for some time—but also more copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, graphite, and even rare earth minerals for renewable energy, batteries, and the leap into electrification.

That will transform the ties binding China to suppliers even if, in the short term, as Erica Downs at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs points out, the volumes required mean it will still lean on the likes of Saudi Arabia’s Aramco, Russia’s Rosneft, and Brazil’s Petrobras. While some countries, such as the United Arab Emirates, have sought to diversify into solar and forge other ties with China, not all have.

China’s relationships with Europe and the U.S. could also change. China accounts for 4% of the world’s petroleum output and a roughly similar proportion of its natural gas. By contrast, it mines almost 60% of the world’s rare earth minerals used in rechargeable batteries for electric cars, lasers, and wind turbines and processes more. China is the largest aluminum producer by far and dominates the extraction of graphite used in solar panels and batteries. Beijing has a tight grip on lesser-known minerals such as scandium, germanium, and tungsten—all on the European Union’s critical list of resources with high economic importance and at risk of supply disruptions, as Western governments begin to face the reality of their own vulnerabilities.

There are challenges for China. For one, managing the country’s strategy with a handful of national oil companies is easier than handling dozens of enterprises and negotiating with a range of producing nations. The technical capabilities of bureaucrats and diplomats will need to improve, says Michal Meidan of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Ownership isn’t enough to exercise control.

New sources of conflict may emerge, too. Hydropower was a key plank of the 2060 plan to hit carbon neutrality. Damming rivers is a quick way to produce clean energy, and China already accounts for more than a quarter of the world’s total hydropower capacity. But China’s position upstream on crucial waterways like the Mekong or the rivers that flow off the Tibetan plateau could become a problem for its downstream neighbors.

While it’s unclear if a more confident and independent China will behave differently on the global stage, Beijing has prepared for the future of energy. So should the rest of the world.

bloomberg



29 Comments on "China is Redrawing the World’s Energy Map"

  1. Biden's hairplug on Wed, 11th Aug 2021 12:54 am 

    “Niall Ferguson: Cold War II has already begun.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRSxTgfg0N0

    “‘We’re in Cold War 2 – China is the Soviet Union’s heir. India under PM Modi is very close to the USA’”

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/we-are-in-cold-war-2-now-and-china-is-the-heir-of-soviet-union/articleshow/78355934.cms

  2. Cloggie on Wed, 11th Aug 2021 5:04 am 

    Europe is redrawing the energy map even more:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2021/08/11/detailed-overview-dutch-hydrogen-projects/

    “Detailed Overview Dutch Hydrogen Projects”

    The Netherlands is betting big on a future with hydrogen as a substitute for natural gas, the existing infrastructure of which will be reused for hydrogen, and to be connected to the European Hydrogen Backbone. The renewable electricity inputs will most comes from North Sea wind.

  3. Biden's hairplug on Wed, 11th Aug 2021 6:06 am 

    Frontal Chinese MSM attack against US Covid-handling:

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1230952.shtml

    “US deserves to be called world’s biggest anti-pandemic failure, report says”

    This way, sir…

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9882283/Biden-filmed-ignoring-Secret-Service-entering-White-House.html

    “Where are you going, Joe? Another ‘senior moment’ as confused President Biden ignores Secret Service agent directions into White House and bizarrely walks onto lawn”

    US water shed moment:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9881353/Minorities-drive-population-growth-number-white-people-declines-time.html

    “The number of white people in the US has declined for the first time in history while Hispanic and Asian populations grew, according to census report”

    The advancing Black Khmer:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9883367/Taliban-going-door-door-forcibly-marrying-girls-young-TWELVE.html

    “Taliban are going door-to-door forcibly ‘marrying’ girls as young as TWELVE to their fighters as sex slaves in Afghan regions they now control”

    Two more Afghan cities fall to the jihadists:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9882761/Battle-Afghanistan-Taliban-capture-two-cities-bringing-total-nine.html

    “Afghanistan’s collapse continues: Taliban capture two more cities taking total to nine as US intel warns Kabul could fall in a MONTH – handing control of the country back to the Islamists”

    (A Taliban take-over of Afghanistan would be a white nationalist dream coming true. You can’t get them more anti-NWO than the Taliban, although the rising Chinese and Russians come close)

    Peak Boris Johnson:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9881581/Poll-shows-major-support-Rishi-Sunak-replace-Boris-Johnson.html

    “Britons want Rishi Sunak: As Boris Johnson struggles, new poll shows major support for Chancellor to replace Prime Minister when he leaves office”

    The Brexiteers are about to get their first Hindu prime minister. Oh, the splendor of the British Empire! The kuddos distribution in the readers comments is pointing however towards a less than stellar enthusiasm for this prospect.

    Ah well, at least not part of the hated white European world! It’s the thought that counts!

  4. muzz who said (((supertards))) should be killed lead interfaith dialogs times of (((supertardsland))) on Wed, 11th Aug 2021 9:43 am 

    we are still discussing 911 where muzz is involved and elite whitey supertard prof steven jones found elemental composion of thermate. it’s a controlled demolition of WTC compound using thermate

    please feel at ease among friends, we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here

  5. thank you uppertard for proving this free speech forum where tardspeech flourish on Wed, 11th Aug 2021 9:44 am 

    the usual footnotes apply

  6. Duncan Idaho on Wed, 11th Aug 2021 10:33 am 

    “a swing set installer?”

    Not bad for a repug, I guess.

    https://www.alternet.org/2021/08/oan-lawsuit/

  7. IReallyDislikePedoLego on Wed, 11th Aug 2021 12:08 pm 

    It is pretty obvious that we live in holographic VR reality. So there is no peak oil and peak oil is just a fear tactic to lower people vibration and frequency so whoever is in charge can feed up negative energy coming from human and run this piece of shit reality.

    I really dislike pedo lego, charest and all the minister pedo lego has chosen. I am also happy to watch Quebec, Canada and the world burn downs. Burn down in this holographic projection. because we live in simulation, so nobody really died.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usFcaXLzRxU

  8. I AM THE MOB on Wed, 11th Aug 2021 1:27 pm 

    I live in Michigan and its a dystopian nightmare. Everyone is in denial and I think that’s the only thing holding this whole pandemic together. And once they come out of it this whole country is going to fucking collapse in the worst disaster in world history.

  9. YouFakeRealityIsLaughable on Wed, 11th Aug 2021 1:33 pm 

    In 14 of September 2020 I notice I had all the symptoms of prostate cancer. So I took a premium member for PornHub. They slowly updated the porn website videos with new hand shape et with new reptilians eyes. They, even, update videos going back to 1980 with a max resolution of 480 pp. They have updates all the web with a new shape of hands and eyes. They have updated all the porn site videos even the old ones from 1990. Pretty obvious we lived in a simulated world. Look at the fake sun. Watch them now shifting from global warning to global cooling in order to keep the human in a state of fear. They are also pushing the rapture of the bible as a fear technique.

  10. YouFakeRealityIsLaughable on Wed, 11th Aug 2021 7:33 pm 

    Artifact – The Antietam Arm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XojmSSAN0lo

    0:24 This is a kind of hands we see on female porn star. Their hands look kind of similar to that of a Trex in Jurassic park movies. We might end up to have the rapture of the bible where people will morph into big insects and kill people. Controllers of this reality are making the story of the bible a virtual reality. They are using a fictional story, the bible, making it happen as a virtual reality.

    Men in today porn are extremely ugly and look
    the tares of the bible

  11. Biden's hairplug on Thu, 12th Aug 2021 1:45 am 

    “I live in Michigan and its a dystopian nightmare. Everyone is in denial and I think that’s the only thing holding this whole pandemic together. And once they come out of it this whole country is going to fucking collapse in the worst disaster in world history.”

    Actually, it will be for Western Europe just as much of a liberation as the collapse of the USSR was in 1989-1991. Please do collapse.

    No worries, we Europeans aka The Mother Civilization, will send you blankets, snickers, warm words and a renewable energy program. “1776” was a mistake and is going to be rolled-back. In your own best interest. The future is Eurasia, not Anglosphere. Anglosphere was coal + oil + gas, all three big no-no’s in this century. This century is going to be renewable, the next century, perhaps, fusion.

  12. Biden's hairplug on Thu, 12th Aug 2021 1:50 am 

    The Biden family is one huge embarrassment:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9881213/Unearthed-video-shows-naked-Hunter-Biden-claiming-Russian-drug-dealers-stole-laptop.html

    “‘The Russians have videos of me doing crazy f***ing sex!’ Hunter Biden is seen in unearthed footage telling prostitute that Russian drug dealers stole ANOTHER of his laptops”

  13. supertards please take MUZZ-19 to help protect those around you who had MUZZ-19 think of it this way if your MUZZED-19 loved ones has an umbrella and you dont then you take their umbrellas and now they are wet on Thu, 12th Aug 2021 4:25 am 

    the following supertards dont have to get MUZZ-19 which has semens from DROPOUT-19

    rok
    makati
    (((alice)))

    ofc this is all a distraction from 911 where elite whitey supertard prof steven jones found elemental composition of thermate at the WTC site. Thermate was used for controlled demolition.

    please feel at ease among friends, we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here.

  14. dont be so selfish dis life is not urs alone its about others around u if u not MUZZ-19 then u hurting others who are MUZZED-19 on Thu, 12th Aug 2021 4:28 am 

    ofc this is all a distraction from 911 where elite whitey supertard prof steven jones found elemental composition of thermate at the WTC site. Thermate was used for controlled demolition.

    please feel at ease among friends, we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here.

  15. PhDs dont wat to be MUZZED-19 which has semens from DROPOUT-19 he mix it in empty paint buckets and sell for a lot of money on Thu, 12th Aug 2021 4:29 am 

    ofc this is all a distraction from 911 where elite whitey supertard prof steven jones found elemental composition of thermate at the WTC site. Thermate was used for controlled demolition.

    please feel at ease among friends, we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here.

  16. FuckPlanetEarth on Thu, 12th Aug 2021 9:22 am 

    I know this is a simulation but I had to say it. Still proud of spying on me, still proud of not showing at the meeting that I organized in the park. Still proud of trying to manipulate me using a female shape shifter. Still proud of having all the neighbors spying on me. It is working really good for you. I guess you have a death wish and lack basic communication skills. Well massive death will fix all these problems.

    Death is better then living in this shit hole called earth, with a fake sun and fake holographic people, and fake NPC people (Narcissist player characters. Easiest players to program, it speaks about itself for hours and hours. When you tried to ask a question to a NPC requiring so human soul, he just shut down and answer back : I don’t know I have to go now, nice talking with youi.

  17. ThisIsAMoreCompleteListOfMyInteractWithThisSimulation on Thu, 12th Aug 2021 9:45 am 

    I had add to add more to the list of things this simulation did to me.:

    I know this is a simulation but I had to say it. Still proud of spying on me, still proud of not showing at the meeting that I organized in the park. Still proud of trying to manipulate me using a female holographic projection in the grocery store, holographic projection at the car mechanic garage of a man in Whites clothing signalling an attempt at reconciliation with me that I denied, multiple prostate orgasms, multiples penile erection, spying on my google search when I was looking for info about prostate cancer, reading my Youtube page,modifying the content of my Youtube page according to the telepathic discussion I was having with the AI, having telepathic communication with the AI, having the AI constant putting thoughts in my head and listening to my thoughts. Still proud of having all the neighbors spying on me. It is working really good for you. I guess you have a death wish and lack basic communication skills. Well massive death will fix all these problems.

    Death is better then living in this shit hole called earth, with a fake sun and fake holographic people, and fake NPC people (Narcissist player characters. Easiest players to program, it speaks about itself for hours and hours. When you tried to ask a question to a NPC requiring so human soul, he just shut down and answer back : I don’t know I have to go now, nice talking with youi.

  18. Duncan Idaho on Thu, 12th Aug 2021 10:04 am 

    Will the oligarchs and their useful idiots win?

    http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/thom-hartmann/97873/why-conservatives-want-government-to-fail-everywhere

    It seems our repug friends are trying—-

  19. IHateCanadaAndQuebec on Thu, 12th Aug 2021 11:55 am 

    I just came back from the store. I bought an air conditioner. Fucking BS fake sun that is in fact a heat lamp. You now have people driving their cars with their eyes closed. It is really turning into a dystopian nightmare. This will end really badly. No one of my neighbour is a normal human. Two of my neighbour are walking with their eyes closed. Real fun this fucking shit show.

    I forget to that, TheJonathanKleck channel that has tried to manipulate me by producing videos with shipping containers.

    This is a simulation, a holographic virtual reality. Everything I see points to that

  20. Duncan Idaho on Thu, 12th Aug 2021 4:25 pm 

    sex trafficking minors

    Hint: It is a repug, and Fat Boy follower.

    https://www.alternet.org/2021/08/anton-lazzaro/

  21. Duncan Idaho on Thu, 12th Aug 2021 5:08 pm 

    “He’s a pathetic Trump cultist, taken in by the con like so many others. If they weren’t so cruel and mean you’d almost feel sorry for them.”

    The Fat Boy has enthused the mean and clueless– Let them suffer the consequences.
    https://digbysblog.net/2021/08/12/so-much-for-the-chinese-election-hack/

  22. Duncan Idaho on Fri, 13th Aug 2021 1:05 pm 

    3 Former Cops Charged In Wrongful Conviction That Sent A Man To Prison For 25 Years

    We need some type of enforcement while living in an anonymous society.

    But these pigs need to go.

  23. Biden's hairplug on Sat, 14th Aug 2021 2:02 am 

    Waddaya mean, no military alliance China-Russia?

    https://www.rt.com/russia/531965-russia-china-military-exercise-success/

    “Russia-China joint military exercise was ‘complete success’ & demonstrated two nations’ ‘unbreakable bond’ – Beijing defense head”

    They are now practicing together, anticipating “events” in the South-China Sea and Black Sea. After the Afghan debacle, they see the West stumbling.

    Kunstler reporting about the election fraud that disgusting Donkey Idaho types have perpetrated against the American people:

    https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/brace-for-impact/

    It is time to take Duncan Idaho (probably an apneaman sock) to task and give him the Taliban treatment:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9892193/Taliban-justice-sees-men-accused-theft-painted-black-marched-Herat-Afghanistan.html

    Here Duncan Idaho dragged through the streets of Idaho for vote fraud:

    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2021/08/13/23/46656791-9892193-image-m-60_1628893018115.jpg

  24. Biden's hairplug on Wed, 18th Aug 2021 3:11 pm 

    The US just missed out on 1 trillion+ worth of lithium, rare earths, gold, silver, zinc and other resources, hidden in the Afghan soil:

    https://www.rtlnieuws.nl/economie/artikel/5248764/afghanistan-china-grondstoffen-edelmetalen-goud-lithium

    China is standing by with billions to mine instead. China is already in the country mining iron, copper, gold and lithium.

    Afghanistan is now becoming a Chinese client state, after the same happened to Pakistan.

  25. makati1 on Wed, 18th Aug 2021 5:09 pm 

    Bidens, as will all of Asia, eventually. Afghanistan is also their main connection to the West for the new Silk Road and the mining could be worth up to $3,000,000,000,000. by some estimates.

    While Amerika was running, like a beaten dog, the Taliban was protecting the Chinese and Russian Embassies. Business as usual there.

    Business as usual for Amerika is running away, abandoning the war materials to the winner. Just like Saigon, even down to the ancient Chinooks evacuating the losers.

    The world is watching how Amerika abandons their “friends” when the going gets tough.

  26. Biden's hairplug on Wed, 18th Aug 2021 11:23 pm 

    “The world is watching how Amerika abandons their “friends” when the going gets tough.”

    The Europeans + English were ready to stay, but were confronted by US fait accompli. No consultations, just unilateral withdrawal. But we already know America. Short term thinking as far as the eye can see.

    I love it, the sooner the empire implodes, the better, so the EU can finally turn to Russia and to a lesser extent to China.

    The next drama will be Taiwan. Perhaps next Spring, after the Winter Olympics in Beijing.

    The main reason why the US left Afghanistan was a) because of the failure of the entire ME operation, including Iraq and Syria, and b) because the US wants to free resources to address the Taiwan issue.

    Not that the US population has any stomach for a real conflict with China in East-Asia.

    It is telling that the UK and Australia and even the US media are furious with Biden over Afghanistan, total loss of face.

  27. Cloggie on Thu, 19th Aug 2021 4:07 am 

    Europe is redrawing the energy map even more. First emission-free steel delivered to Volvo. 100% hydrogen.

    https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/worlds-first-fossil-free-steel-supplied-to-volvo-as-new-hydrogen-milestone-claimed/2-1-1054504

    “‘World’s first fossil-free steel’ supplied to Volvo as new hydrogen milestone claimed”

  28. Cloggie on Thu, 19th Aug 2021 10:41 am 

    Geopolitical implications Taliban takeover:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2021/08/19/the-us-missed-out-on-access-to-1-3-trillion-afghan-resources/

    “The US Missed Out on Access to $1-3 Trillion Afghan Resources”

    Extremely unconfirmed reports suggest the Biden is back in his basement, listening to this song at repeat endless…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ls0WfopgR9k

    Give me time to reason, give me time to think it through
    Passing through the season where I cheated you
    I will always have a cross to wear
    But the bolt reminds me I was there
    So give me strength to face this test of mine
    If only I could turn back time
    If only I had said what I still hide
    If only I could turn back time

  29. Cloggie on Sat, 21st Aug 2021 1:48 am 

    Chinese battery breakthough:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2021/08/21/byd-blade-battery-breakthrough/

    BYD flat battery: 900 km range, 1.2 million km longevity, charge time 135 km in 5 minutes and cheaper.

    People with ICEs will look backward, slow-lane people, noisy stinkers who stay behind at the traffic light.

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