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Page added on February 12, 2021

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China Is Approaching Its Own Peak Oil


Big Oil has become used to a ravenous China. But Chinese energy companies are starting to look ahead to an overall peak in oil demand around mid-decade. Sinopec, SHI 0.21% China’s largest refiner, estimated in December that the nation’s demand for oil products will peak in 2025.

While that might yet prove ambitious, a confluence of events over the past year suggests that the peak in China could still arrive before too long.

China in September committed to a carbon-neutral economy by 2060. The race for electric-vehicle supremacy is now on in earnest, with everyone from General Motors to Apple Inc. circling the market and President Biden’s election adding to investors’ appetite. At the same time, U.S.-China relations remain extremely tense, meaning Beijing’s discomfort with its dependence on large-scale oil imports and a vulnerability to disruption in a geopolitical crisis, is rapidly rising. China is far and away the world’s largest importer of crude oil, bringing in more than 10 million barrels a day in 2020.

Chinese freight turnover and oil demand, year-over-year changeSource: CEIC*Refinery ouput plus net petroleum product imports. Change shown as a 3-month moving average.

Nonetheless, there are some significant roadblocks to achieving a peak in the next five years. China’s oil consumption rose 5% in 2019 before Covid-19 hit, according to data from BP —slightly faster than the average of the previous five years. Chinese electric-vehicle penetration is rising quickly but still relatively low at around 5% of new cars sold, and even current official targets only call for 20% market penetration by 2025.

That means that to hit peak oil demand by 2025, China needs to significantly boost the efficiency of traditional transportation options. A peak oil scenario for mid-decade published in December by the Chinese research institute Catarc and the U.S.’s Natural Resources Defense Council finds that over the next five years the bulk of potential oil savings in the transportation sector will come from better mileage per gallon and a more efficient road transportation structure, rather than electric vehicles. Higher automotive fuel efficiency is the single most important source of potential savings, accounting for about 35% of the total.

One significant headwind is Chinese consumers’ rising preference for bigger, heavier vehicles—a trend that has been reinforced by rising incomes and cheap oil over the past half-decade. Forty-four percent of light-duty-vehicle sales in China were sport-utility vehicles in 2019, according to the International Energy Agency, up from 14% in 2010.

Meanwhile, a more efficient transportation structure presents its own challenges. In theory, China has lots of room to cut oil consumption by shifting more shipments from road to rail, investing in better urban public transportation and improving city planning. Only around one-fifth of freight transportation in China was by rail in 2017, according to the NRDC, compared with about 50% by road. In the U.S. and Russia, rail accounted for 33% and 43% respectively. But as monetary and fiscal policy becomes more cautious as the economy recovers, overall investment in the transportation sector might slow. Rail investment in China for all of 2020 was down 2.2%, compared with a 4.5% year-over-year rise in the first three quarters.

While China’s peak oil year might not be 2025, it may not be much further out than that, especially since electric-vehicle penetration does seem likely to gain momentum later in the decade. Investors in fossil-fuel companies should take that into account now.


12 Comments on "China Is Approaching Its Own Peak Oil"

  1. MaChristDePuteSale on Fri, 12th Feb 2021 8:53 pm 

    Ma tabernacle de pute sale

  2. MonCalisseDeCon on Fri, 12th Feb 2021 8:55 pm 

    Mon christ de merdeu sans cervelle

  3. NoWayThisWasLegal on Fri, 12th Feb 2021 9:08 pm 

    No the spying Quebec did on me is legal. I am going to have to look at this more deeply.

  4. ICanBeReallyVindicative on Fri, 12th Feb 2021 9:32 pm 

    I made some mistake above, here is what I mean

    No way. The spying Quebec did on me is not legal. I am going to have to look at this more deeply. I will never forget and forgive that, enjoy watching your children died

  5. Biden's hairplug on Sat, 13th Feb 2021 4:29 am 

    If the Amsterdam Stock Exchange really bigger than London?

    First answer: no

    The sudden increase is the result of a small club of Brits (10 people or so), who have moved two huge trading platforms, CBOE Europe en Turqoise, from London to Amsterdam. They basically moved their computers and a few operators. No huge new offices with thousands of new jobs.

    However, the real impact is huge. For starters because of the image and prestige.

    But more important, TAX on these 9 billion daily transactions is now being paid in the Netherlands, not the UK.

    The British government earned 76 billion/year from the financial services sector. I’m not saying that all that money will end up in Dutch coffers, probably far from it, but the loss will be in the several billions at least.

  6. StupidCockSuckerYouWillPayForThis on Sat, 13th Feb 2021 4:56 am 

    StarvingLion : Senile old man surrenders after less than 1 month in office.

    US-China Confrontation is Disaster for Entire World, Xi … … nd-us-is…


    Both link don’t work. Stupid Chinese and Russian cock sucker are reading this blog as almost all world leader. Good I can tell to them direct to their what I think of so called prime minster and world leader. Cannot trust anything coming out in the news.

  7. StupidCockSuckerYouWillPayForThis on Sat, 13th Feb 2021 5:00 am 

    Isn’t a beautifu world we are living into, when you have to assume that eveyone is lying because well politicals leader have been lying forever starting with the US.

  8. OKCockSuckerYouWillBeServed on Sat, 13th Feb 2021 5:45 am 

    You like the ugly negro, don’t you lego. You love sucking negro dick, don’t you, fucking piece shit. Same with the ugly useless whore knows as guidounde Guilbautl.

    Je te parle de l’affaire Camara. Je parie qui si ca avait été un blanc au lieu d’un christ de negro a merde, tu n’aurais rien fait. Now you doing somehting because a negro is involve. Mon ostie de tabernac d’enfant chien. Meme chose pour la christ de pute slace Guibault. Ostie de succeux de grain de negro.

    I want to know when are you going to do a investigation on the illegality of the spying done on me by Quebec. I am waiting for justice fucking piece of human garbage.

    Ma tabernacle de pute sale

  9. Biden's hairplug on Sat, 13th Feb 2021 7:18 am 

    French presidential elections next year. The battle is over who can occupy the most-right-wing positions:

    “French far-right leader Marine Le Pen is left stunned as President Macron’s interior minister accuses HER of being ‘too soft’ on Islam in election debate”


  10. FuckTheUSTrumpAndUSMilitary on Sat, 13th Feb 2021 8:39 am 

    Key moment for Assange | US files an appeal against UK court’s extradition ban
    602 vues il y a 1 heure

    I will never trust Trump, retard lego, guidoune Guilbautl, US military, CIA and the pentagon. Fuck US, a nations of liar, manipulator, deceiver. This apply to all whites western nations. Fuck them all.

  11. SuckMyDickLegoDrinkMyPissGuidoune on Sat, 13th Feb 2021 9:00 am 

    Look even in Quebec we have to hear about the fucking negro. Negro to the left, to the right, to the top, to the bottom. Everything in Whites western nation is about the useless negro. Retard lego and guidoune Guibault love the negro. Lego loves to suck negro dick and Guibault love to swallow negro piss. Hourray for the ugly, useless negro.

    Mois de l’histoire des Noirs Quebec : LES JEUNES PRENNENT LA PAROLE

  12. FuckUSTrumpUSMilitary on Sat, 13th Feb 2021 9:32 am 

    Outcastphilosopher talk about how US can maintain the value of the US dollars. Looks like he was into something.

    American side hustle | US sells millions of barrels of seized Iranian oil

    Your fucking empire is dying, all over the world we are celebrating it., I am sure celebrating it.

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