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Car sales will peak in 2022 as robotaxis take off

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Canalys forecasts 93.7 million cars will be sold worldwide in 2017, up just 1.7% on 2016. Low single-digit percentage sales volume growth will continue for the next five years, peaking at 99 million cars sold in 2022.

Annual global sales will then decline as the urban mobility revolution, already affecting the market, gathers pace.

“The convenience of owning a car comes at a cost. Cars are under-used – they sit idle for more than 90% of the time. The wider availability of urban mobility services, such as ride-hailing, car-sharing and robotaxis, will further reduce car ownership. With the expectation of everything on demand, these services will revolutionize how people travel,” said Chris Jones, Chief Analyst, Automotive at Canalys.

“There are already too many cars on our heavily-congested roads, and most pollute the air and only carry one person – the driver,” said Canalys VP Sandy Fitzpatrick. “It will be irresponsible of governments to let this ‘car park’ increase in the coming years. Legislation must be introduced to ban the sale of petrol and diesel cars and to allow autonomous vehicles on our roads.”

“In this climate, no car-maker is too big to fail,” said Jones. “They will continue to fight for sales growth and must seek new revenue streams, including urban mobility services. Cars will increasingly become connected, electric, autonomous and shared. Car-makers that are too slow or too conservative to adapt their strategies will disappear.”

13 Comments on "Car sales will peak in 2022 as robotaxis take off"

  1. Sissyfuss on Thu, 30th Nov 2017 12:06 pm 

    “Cars sit idle 90% of the time.” Well, that matches uo nicely with millenials.

  2. Outcast_Searcher on Thu, 30th Nov 2017 12:58 pm 

    Let’s see real truly autonomous cars working well in large numbers, selling in quantity, with all the rules in place to make robotaxis viable in large numbers in big cities. Let’s see all the rules, legislation, insurance, etc. in place to routinely deal with that.

    THEN, let’s talk about auto sales declining in significant numbers due to that.

    I think it will happen — but I think claiming it will happen starting in only 5 years is just corny speculation.

  3. Outcast_Searcher on Thu, 30th Nov 2017 1:06 pm 

    One claim is that cars cost people an average of $9,000 a year, which is a big piece of the basis for claiming so many people are eager to throw off the “shackles” of owning a car.

    In the real world I live in, in a mid-America red state in a top 100 city, my annual total car expense (assuming owning a car for 10 years, and I drive only about 4000 miles a year) is more like $4000 a year or less.

    First, I don’t see robotaxis being ubiquitous enough to make me want to ditch my car around here for at least a decade, maybe two.

    Second, I don’t see them being cheap enough to make sense for me to do that, given the likely cost/convenience trade-off. (If I have to go, say, downtown in rush hour in bad weather, if robotaxis are so wonderful, nothing says I can’t use one for such trips) and still own a car).

    I live in the suburbs. Since when, in the suburbs or any businesses or friends I’m likely to visit 95% of the time, ANY problem as far as parking?

    Commuting to work in big cities congested areas might make this make sense. OK, but then there’s perhaps the other 80% or so of driving that goes on.

  4. Outcast_Searcher on Thu, 30th Nov 2017 1:12 pm 

    I just looked at the base article in “The Financial”. Ironically, there are NO figures about costs in the article. NONE.

    So it’s all just subjective things like “too crowded”, “too many cars”, “irresponsible”, “ban”, etc.

    I for one am unimpressed by such “articles” which basically do zero real analysis.

  5. Cloggie on Thu, 30th Nov 2017 2:01 pm 

    ““Cars sit idle 90% of the time.” Well, that matches uo nicely with millenials.”

    It is even more. In Holland for instance average daily commuting distance is 34 km or 30 minutes. Cars stand idly by 98% of the time. Voila the rationale to embark on this autonomous car adventure. And in a car fit 5 people rather than the standard 1.25 persons. Look at it this way: 30 minutes per day extra to post at!

  6. Anonymouse1 on Thu, 30th Nov 2017 3:19 pm 

    Good news for you then, eh cloggen-kike? You will be able broadcast your endless bullshit 23.5 hours a day. Oh, and that little farticle above is bullshit, written by a PROFESSIONAL bullshitter. Unlike the amatuer bullshitter, sorry ‘broadcaster’, you are. And not only is it 100% certifiable BS, it is also filler BS. And he didn’t even need a robo-taxi to find the time in his day to come up with that little side blurb.

    Now go away cloggen-fraud, find some other place to haunt would you? Get started on that post count zero promise you made.

  7. Cloggie on Thu, 30th Nov 2017 4:09 pm 

    “Get started on that post count zero promise you made.”

    Never made that promise, you idiot. Only said that I would post less OR not at all, since I’m working again.

    Anonymouse and Davy, the selfstyled bouncers c.q. moderaters and not very succesful at that. Go pick some cotton mouse.

  8. Davy on Thu, 30th Nov 2017 5:26 pm 

    Dutchy, and what are you? You act like Napoleon with a toy horse. What a joke, an energy engineer (his words) who can’t tell fantasy from reality. He is always telling us how busy he is because he has a demanding client. Lol. He is in demand alright as a extremist troll who lives a digital fantasy he calls reality.

  9. Makati1 on Fri, 1st Dec 2017 4:13 am 

    “Once upon a time in the techie fantasy kingdom… ” LMAO

  10. pointer on Fri, 1st Dec 2017 7:02 am 

    We already have cars that the passenger does not drive — they’re called taxis/Uber, buses, subways and trains. And yet the love affair with cars continues.

    And on top of it all, Apple can’t even get out a software update without screwing things up, like allowing a ‘root’ login without a password, and then breaking file sharing with the login fix. Does anyone think that these self-driving cars are somehow immune to human programming error? That we won’t hear one day, “Uber software update causes all of its self-driving cars to interpret the grill of on-coming truck as an open passing lane” or something like that?

  11. Keith McClary on Fri, 1st Dec 2017 11:56 pm 

    With 90% less cars, what happens when a hurricane hits and everyone has to evacuate on short notice? I guess Uber will algorithmically jack up the fares astronomically. But, no problem, you can just hop on a bus or commuter train (or a plane until the airport is shut down).

  12. Makati1 on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 12:27 am 

    Cloggie, this is another techie dream that is going to come crashing down when the financial system collapse’. IF…the insurance industry and the accidents don’t end it first.

    By 2022, there will be fewer cars bought, because … drum roll … there will be a lot smaller number of people who can afford new cars. The old cars will be repaired until they are nothing but scrap metal. No more “driver-less taxis”. Just fewer cars sold.

    And, anyway, not one person in this world of seven billion plus humans KNOWS what 2022 will be like. We may be in the middle of WW3 or worse. I guess we will have to wait and see. But… the driver-less vehicles will be gone. I would bet a months income on that prediction.

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