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Page added on February 21, 2018

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BP: Oil Demand Is Going to Peak in the Next 20 Years


Oil use will peak by the late 2030s as electric vehicles hit the road in force after 2035, BP predicted Tuesday in its annual report.

With a growth from 2 million electric vehicles in 2016 to an expected 320 million by 2040, company leaders foresee that the number of electric cars will account for 15 percent of the total car fleet and a third of the miles people travel as consumers’ appetites will shift from oil to electricity.

BP sharply increased its estimate of growth in electric vehicles over the next two decades from last year’s prediction of 100 million electric vehicles by 2035. The change is a result of more production of hybrid cars and an expected sharp growth in electric vehicle purchases in the second half of the 2030s, BP’s chief economist Spencer Dale told reporters Tuesday, according to CNBC.

The global oil company anticipates oil and natural gas to account for half of the world’s energy around that time, but it expects renewable energy sources to be the fastest-growing primary fuel source, supplying about 14 percent, by 2040.

While electric car development and sales have soared in recent years, they only account for 0.2 percent of passenger vehicles, according to the International Energy Agency.

The BP outlook derived its predictions from its “evolving transition” scenario, which assumes that “government policies, technology and societal preference evolve in a similar manner to the recent past,” according to the site.


5 Comments on "BP: Oil Demand Is Going to Peak in the Next 20 Years"

  1. Davy on Thu, 22nd Feb 2018 7:35 am 

    “Hungry Venezuelan Workers Are Collapsing. So Is the Oil Industry”

    “Hunger is hastening the ruin of Venezuelan’s oil industry as workers grow too weak and hungry for heavy labor. With children dying of malnutrition and adults sifting garbage for table scraps, food has become more important than employment, and thousands are walking off the job. Absenteeism and mass resignations mean few are left to produce the oil that keeps the tattered economy functioning.”

    “Much of the decline is due to lack of money for maintenance and exploration. Recently, though, hunger is to blame. A survey by three Venezuelan universities released Wednesday found that that more than 64 percent of residents lost weight in 2017, on average 25 pounds. More than 61 percent of respondents said they had gone to bed hungry over the past three months.”

    “Ivan Freitas, a PDVSA union leader and critic of President Nicolas Maduro’s regime, said Wednesday that in Zulia State 12 malnourished workers collapsed in November and December and had to be taken off drilling platforms for treatment. More go down each day, he said. Alirio Villasmil, a diver, does underwater maintenance on ships transporting oil in Lake Maracaibo, in western Venezuela. He said in an interview that three people he supervises fainted while working, and he had to rush them from rig platforms to the hospital. He has sent home others too weak to dive.”

    “Those who quit without notice risk losing their pensions, as bureaucrats refuse to process paperwork. Many managers live in terror of arrest since the Maduro regime purged the industry, imprisoning officials from low-level apparatchiks to former oil ministers. In one human resources office, a sign advertised a limit of five resignations a day. “Management is holding them back to stop brain and technical drain,” said Jose Bodas, general secretary of United Federation of Venezuelan Oil Workers. He estimates 500 employees have resigned at the Puerto La Cruz refinery and nearby processing facilities in the past 12 months — even though superiors have labeled them “traitors to the homeland,” a phrase that often precedes arrest. In the streets, families sell their boots and the red coveralls. “They’re giving up because of hunger,” Bodas said. “They’re leaving because they get paid better abroad. This is unheard of, a catastrophe.”

  2. bobinget on Thu, 22nd Feb 2018 10:02 am 

    Yeah, but not THIS week;

    Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.6 million barrels per
    day, up by 4.3% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline
    product supplied averaged 9.1 million barrels per day, up by 5.4% from the same period
    last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged over 4.1 million barrels per day over
    the last four weeks, up by 4.3% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied
    is up 6.7% compared to the same four-week period last year.

  3. bobinget on Thu, 22nd Feb 2018 10:07 am

    One hopes oil stabilizes between $62. & $72.
    Peace in the ME now depends on higher PoO.

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