Register

Peak Oil is You


Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)


Page added on February 6, 2019

Bookmark and Share

Bank Of America: Oil Demand Growth To Hit Zero Within A Decade

Consumption

By 2030, oil demand could hit a peak and then enter decline, according to a new report.

For the next decade or so, oil demand should continue to grow, although at a slower and slower rate. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the annual increase in global oil consumption slows dramatically in the years ahead. By 2024, demand growth halves, falling to just 0.6 million barrels per day (mb/d), down from 1.2 mb/d this year.

But by 2030, demand growth zeros out as consumption hits a permanent peak, before falling at a relatively rapid rate thereafter.

The main driver of the destruction in demand is the proliferation of electric vehicles.

Bank of America did offer a few caveats and uncertainties. The growth of EVs hinges on a handful of key metals. Lithium, for instance, is mined and produced in large concentrations in a few Latin American countries.

But cobalt looms as a larger concern for some automakers. Roughly 62 percent global cobalt output is found in the Democratic Republic of Congo. An executive from Ford said recently that automakers might feel compelled to invest directly in cobalt production over fears of securing adequate supply. “I fully anticipate we’re going to keep a lot of pressure on that cobalt production,” Ted Miller, head of energy storage strategy and research at Ford, said at a mining event in South Africa. “Today it looks feasible but it’s a scenario we’re going to have to watch.”

The DRC just held a divisive election, and although the transfer of power has been mostly peaceful, the country has historically suffered from political instability. “Any major disruption to cobalt today would likely curb EV proliferation in the early 2020s, in turn supporting long dated crude oil prices,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch warned.

There are alternatives to cobalt, but that would merely put pressure on other materials. “Car producers may gradually substitute from cobalt to nickel over the next two decades. In turn, this shift may lead to soaring demand for nickel, creating another supply squeeze as mine expansion plans are limited,” BofAML analysts wrote in their report.

There are a long list of other uncertainties that complicate such medium- and long-term forecasting. A brewing economic downturn, which may or may not hit in the next year or next few years, could linger into the 2020s. That would alter oil demand forecasts, but in complicated ways. Slower economic growth would put a dent in oil prices via lower demand, but a lower price itself could keep consumers hooked.

The EV market is also rife with uncertainty. EV sales are growing quickly, with the number of EVs on the roads picking up pace. Automakers are set to roll out dozens of new models, which will expand choice and awareness, while also making progress on price, range, and performance. Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees EVs having a “meaningful negative impact” on oil demand from 2021 onwards.

Then, of course, there is the small matter of policy, which can cut both ways. Bank of America said that “the US’s feeble commitments to climate action, fuel efficiency standards, and sulphur-limit reductions in shipping (IMO),” could slow EV adoption. But the next administration could also reverse course and step up climate ambition.

Even when breaking down oil demand into various segments, there is a lot of change going on. “EVs are shifting demand away from gasoline, IMO causes switching into diesel, and strong petchems demand growth is shifting demand toward the light part of the barrel, including NGLs in particular,” BofAML wrote. “We are at the beginning of a new age of uncertainty for oil producers, refiners and miners alike.”

Nevertheless, despite all of those uncertainties, the outlines of the trajectory are clear. Oil demand in the developed world saw a temporary boost over the last four years or so because of the collapse of oil prices. That has mostly run its course. Demand “should return to outright declines as the price effect wears off and efficiency takes over,” BofAML wrote.

Emerging market demand should continue to grow as more people acquire cars. China, however, has made a major EV push and its demand growth is already starting to slow.

“The major driver of structural change in oil demand trends in the next five years and beyond is expected to be electric vehicles,” BofAML said. By 2020, EVs will capture 5 percent of global vehicle sales, which will balloon to 40 percent by 2030, before rising to 95 percent by 2050.

All of that implies a peak in oil demand by 2030, a little over a decade from now. We are in the midst of the “biggest structural shift in demand growth since the proliferation of the car began in the early 1900s,” BofAML concluded.

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com



83 Comments on "Bank Of America: Oil Demand Growth To Hit Zero Within A Decade"

  1. JuanP on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 8:53 pm 

    I apologize for that slip, Associate Anon. I was in a state of shock caused by the extremely unusual circumstances. It will not happen again!

  2. Associate Anonymouse on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 9:17 pm 

    Its all good, I am still trying process it all myself, and try to figure out what it means.

    I am pretty sure, the Delusional one, is working, even now, on one of his patented, turgid, and un-readable word salads, filled with a detailed synapsis of my new duties and responsibilities as an ‘Associate’.
    I can hardly wait.

    Whatever rambling turd salad he does come up with, I will be sure, in my capacity as associate, to ignore, and or skip over it completely, and only focus on comments made by mak, or the hundreds of dirtyjuansocks that apparently, you are solely responsible for, even when you are nowhere near the internet. Or asleep. Or gardening.

  3. JuanP on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 9:58 pm 

    You never know. He might be working on a report of my activities. God knows that report is long overdue! He promised it days ago and hasn’t delivered it yet. He makes a lousy moderator and should be demoted!

  4. Cloggie on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 12:30 am 

    “Seriously, is anybody else on this site lowering their carbon footprint besides me? And I said lowering, not trying. Natzis don’t count.

    Why is that Sissy? Afraid of the truth?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_welfare_in_Nazi_Germany

    https://canadafreepress.com/article/nazi-environmentalism-how-green-were-the-nazis

    https://www.amazon.com/How-Green-Were-Nazis-Environment/dp/0821416472

    The most murderous people on the planet, I mean Soviets and Americans, conspire to take over the planet, rape, bomb, nuke everything down, next organize a show trial in order to declare the vanquished as “evil” and invent “6 million gassed” stories and German fake war guilt and from then set up a “culture”, specialized in demonizing the finest people on the planet and their magnificent culture, enslave their engineering talent and exploit them to get on the moon and achieve undeserved glory, They themselves run the most wasteful economy in history, where the Germans are still the main promoters of renewable technology on this planet. Once you know these people and little spineless liars and racism and natzi howlers like siss, empire dave, mobster, a little better, you can only wish them a black dick in every body cavity. You can have them, anonymouse, they are completely hopeless anyway. Perhaps they can pick cotton for ya.

  5. Cloggie on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 12:43 am 

    Rule number one in royal life: never marry a commoner, nothing but trouble. Professionals only. Oh and that rules out Americans.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6680755/RICHARD-KAY-Like-Princess-Diana-fear-Meghan-playing-fire.html

    This mulatto has the potential to blow up the House of Windsor.

    #SpecialRelationship

  6. makati1 on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 2:22 am 

    Cloggie, the Germans are already on their way down the chute to the 3rd world. Their money laundering banks in trouble, exports in trouble, economy in trouble, defying the empire on Nordstream Two, etc. Their little Hitler is losing her place and will be gone when the next election happens. Ditto that idiot in France, Macron. The EU is breaking up Cloggie. It will suck your little country into the sewer with it.

    The only question is who will lead the flow, the US or the EU. Both will go together. “Dishonest Abe” in Japan will be in the flow somewhere along with Australia. That will be the end of the West as we have known it. About time.

    You better hope that is the case, because the alternative is a US/Russia war on the your doorstep. Probably nuclear. This is Asia’s Century. Adjust.

  7. Truth Buster on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 4:58 am 

    DavyTurd concocts a word salad melody bursting with self-loathing and contempt.

    Imagine a world in which there is no Davy trust fund baby. In this world Skum must work for a living in a position that requires normal human interaction. He wouldn’t even make it through the probationary period before he was forced to join the other Missouri Red state deplorables in need of welfare, food stamps, section 8 housing, aid to dependent children, medicaid, church groceries.

  8. Truth Buster on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 4:59 am 

    Glimpses of Reality

    DavyTurd concocts a word salad melody bursting with self-loathing and contempt.

    Imagine a world in which there is no Davy trust fund baby. In this world Skum must work for a living in a position that requires normal human interaction. He wouldn’t even make it through the probationary period before he was forced to join the other Missouri Red state deplorables in need of welfare, food stamps, section 8 housing, aid to dependent children, medicaid, church groceries.

  9. JuanP on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 5:02 am 

    I’m going to neuter, moderate, and take JuanP and his socialist agenda down, down, down.

  10. More juanP low IQ behavior on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 5:04 am 

    Truth Buster said Glimpses of Reality DavyTurd concocts a word salad…
    Truth Buster said DavyTurd concocts a word salad melody bursting wit…
    Melonhead said Well, it’s kinda dumb not to wear a helmet….
    Anonymouse said Thanks Juan. No one takes being a dirtyJuansockpup…
    Davy said For anybody that cares, I’m going to bed now to fi…
    JuanP said Anon, Congratulations on your promotion! It is not…
    JuanP said Delusional Davy “BTW, thanks for never comin…
    JuanP said Delusional Davy “makato, i do not do sock pu…
    JuanP said Mak “JuanP, I’m seriously considering not ev…

  11. Davy on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 5:45 am 

    “Here Is the Future of Car Sharing, and Carmakers Should Be Terrified”
    https://tinyurl.com/ybptca82
    graph: https://tinyurl.com/yb4a59l5

    “The venture—set up last year by a local Internet company—flooded the Russian capital with more than 7,000 cars to rent for as little as 5 rubles (8 cents) per minute, including fuel, maintenance and parking. That compares to 41 cents a minute for Daimler AG’s Car2Go in New York and is an offer too good to pass up for a growing number of Muscovites. Almost out of nowhere, car-sharing in Moscow boomed, with the number of vehicles more than tripling last year. The city now has the biggest shared fleet in Europe and the second-largest in the world. The rapid shift spells trouble for automakers by providing a blueprint for how a deep-pocketed technology player can move quickly to woo consumers with alternatives to traditional car ownership. “We’re approaching a point that could flip the entire car market on its head,” said Shwetha Surender, a London-based analyst with consultancy Frost & Sullivan. “Carmakers risk becoming mere suppliers to shared mobility services and losing direct relations with customers. That’s an unattractive proposition.”

  12. Cloggie on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 7:32 am 

    What Bloomberg is saying now, I have been saying since May 2017:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/05/16/by-2030-you-wont-own-a-car/

    Russia is “ahead” since its citizens have less money to spend than the West. But if the West crashes financially, the same could happen here. Especially if the car is autonomous and can come to the passenger, rather than the passenger/driver coming to the shared car, like in Moscow.

  13. Sissyfuss on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 8:14 am 

    Excellent Peaky, looks like I got some catching up to do.

  14. JuanP on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 10:05 am 

    Delusional Davy “I’m going to neuter, moderate, and take JuanP and his socialist agenda down, down, down.”

    Knock yourself out, fool! I love fucking with you! ROFLMFAO!

  15. Davy on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 11:38 am 

    “Knock yourself out, fool! I love fucking with you! ROFLMFAO!”

    Ah, looks like you are the one knocking yourself out FOOL

  16. I AM THE MOB on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 11:39 am 

    Clogg

    By 2030 you will be dead..FTFY

    You can lie all you want about WW2 and renewables..But you can’t lie your way out of dying from the collapse..Its coming you ugly piece of shit..
    https://medium.com/@Cliffhanger1983/the-collapse-of-civilization-manifesto-2039c6a5327

    Looks like you are going to die an angry low life incel! Just like Hitler with no kids!

    LOL

  17. I AM THE MOB on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 11:43 am 

    Here is clogg

    Show me some recent science papers on peak oil..YOU CAN”T

    Okay here are four…

    PoRk cYcLE!

  18. I AM THE MOB on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 12:19 pm 

    We live in frightening times. It’s my belief that “you personally” will most likely die of starvation or conflict in the not too distant future.

    You will experience a collapse of human civilization, a die-off of humans, a destruction of the ecosystem, a loss of access to mined and drilled resources, and a dark age from which your descendent’s will not reemerge.

    https://medium.com/@Cliffhanger1983/the-collapse-of-civilization-manifesto-2039c6a5327

  19. I AM THE MOB on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 12:51 pm 

    EU membership has many benefits, but economic growth is not one of them – new findings

    https://theconversation.com/eu-membership-has-many-benefits-but-economic-growth-is-not-one-of-them-new-findings-111206?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1549534941

    Lack of growth leads to collapse! I love watching Europe collapse in real time!

  20. Cloggie on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 1:13 pm 

    “I love watching Europe collapse in real time!”

    This is how many Anglos think about Europe. We in Europe should have no illussions about them.

    However,

    China…1350 million
    Russia…140 million
    EU……….500 million

    USA…….330 million (1/3 darkies)

    In short, the empire is toast.

    The real question is, can we take the thing apart, without blowing up the planet?

    Anyway, the first act in the coming drama will take place in the South China Sea:

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12199333

  21. I AM THE MOB on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 1:53 pm 

    CLogg

    Too bad no of those people are united..

    You just make up unfounded fantasies..

    Enjoy the collape..I sure love watching it from abroad..Makes me realize our problems could be way worse..

    LOL

  22. I AM THE MOB on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 1:56 pm 

    Former NASA scientist and climate advocate James Hansen said “suggesting that renewables will let us phase rapidly off fossil fuels in the United States, China, India, or the world as a whole is almost the equivalent of believing in the Easter Bunny and Tooth Fairy.”
    https://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/23/jim-hansen-presses-the-climate-case-for-nuclear-energy/?_r=0

    Damn..Could have said better myself..Great minds think alike!

  23. Cloggie on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 2:39 pm 

    Enjoy the collape..I sure love watching it from abroad..Makes me realize our problems could be way worse..

    It will be exactly the other way around.

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2018/06/11/cw2-brewing/

    Many links I got from you.lol

    We Europeans only have to pump the place full with weapons and afterwards pick up the pieces. You will be our bitch again, like you were 1492-1776.

    And CW2 will be triggered by a clash with the Chinese in SE-Asia. After all, as the Chinese proverb goes: “America can’t take casualties”.

  24. Cloggie on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 3:17 pm 

    Enjoy the collape..I sure love watching it from abroad

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6680863/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-March-against-Donald-thats-Tusk-not-Trump.html#comments

    Comment section:

    Garth, Lancashire, 12 hours ago

    Mrs May, c’mon – if you only go in swinging the British people will love you. I don’t care if you win – just that we see you finally doing what’s right and not taking the “punishment” anymore. We’re not some insignificant banana republic – we’re one of the most powerful nations on the planet. Time for the EU to accept some ultimatums from us – or No Deal it is – and with it the crashing of German manufacturing, French agriculture, our Irish friends entire economy and the tipping over the edge of the Euro into the abyss. We can adapt and overcome, the EU is incapable of flexibility, so lets reciprocate their negativity. Going forward lets hold our dear European “friends” at arms length and work with our real friends around the world, the USA, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, India and the Commonwealth. As markets and social links go we really don’t need “friends” like those in the EU. WE have real friends that we should never have abandoned that represent much more then the EU does.

    Pros: 520
    Cons: 103

    No surprises here. And these stupid, naive Germans kept on begging for an alliance with Britain between Germans unification 1871 until the Hess flight in 1941.

    Nothing has changed in the Anglo mindset since 1891. If they get the chance to destroy us, they would do it again. We continental Europeans should be stupid to ignore that. People like mobster, sissy and davy are our deadly enemies. And they are the majority, folks like Theedrich and Antius the minority.

    And just like the Anglos used the Soviets to destroy us continental Europeans, we can conveniently use the rising Chinese to do the dirty work for us and reward them with Down Under if they volunteer to deal the first blow against the Anglos. And solve their overpopulation problems in one stroke (and keep them busy and away from Siberia). No European is going to lift a finger to defend Australia, we remember all to well their behavior in both WW1 and WW2 as a British asset.

    Perhaps a hard Brexit would be preferable, so we can blow up the West now and provoke WW3 while Putin is still in charge.

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/usa-russia-pipeline-senate/us-senate-committee-to-consider-resolution-against-nord-stream-2-pipeline-idUKL1N20303N

    Just try us.

    They probably put Macron under pressure with their eternal sanctions. Why not sanction them back and deprive them of the possibility to keep pumping their inherent worthless dollars in all directions.

  25. Sissyfuss on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 3:20 pm 

    Cligenschlit, are you sock puppeting your own rectangle? That long quote from Mob must have been you giving homage to someone so young and vibrant. Good on ya.

  26. Cloggie on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 4:32 pm 

    Pissyonfuss his owner is acting like it is 1939 again:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uO1DBvOd2_A

    Friedman thinks that Poland should be set up against Germany and Russia, doing the bidding of the US of course, just like the Poles were the useful idiots of the Americans, just good enough to get the war started under the fake pretext of coming to the aid of the poor Poles, where in reality the Poles were handed over to the loving care of Stalin after the war as a reward (to the Soviets, not the Poles).

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/5445161/Russia-accuses-Poland-of-starting-Second-World-War.html

    It remains to be seen if the Poles would volunteer for a 2nd time to be the useful idiot for mr Friedman.

    As long as American whitey refuses to rise up against kikes like Friedman…

    Poland should lead countries against Germany and Russia, of course together with the USA.
    According to George Friedman, Europe will fall apart, he indicates conflicts and wars to come, where Poland should play a leading role, as an instrument of the USA, against Germany and Russia.

    …we in Europe should not have too much empathy with them, even while they are being eaten alive demographically by the third world as we speak, on behest of the Friedman-bunch, much worse than we are in Europe, giving us a decisive advantage.

    Friedman spoke in 2015. Boy, do things have changed since. The Friedman-bunch temporarily lost the White House to hated whitey, China keeps growing, Russia defeated US strategic design in Syria, Turkey is loosening its position in the western alliance, Brexit will likely happen, so the US loses its watchdog in Europe.

    Things don’t look good at all for Friedman.lol

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2019/01/07/the-good-news-zog-is-dying/

  27. I AM THE MOB on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 5:13 pm 

    Clogg

    Your link is from 2009..And it says they accuse, not prove..

    You moron..Enjoy the collapse..When the oil shortage hits soon.

  28. I AM THE MOB on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 5:15 pm 

    Clogg

    The tory graph writes fake news all the time..All right wing site do..Because right wingers have low IQs..according to science..

    Daily mail is banned by wiki for fake stories..Same with bretbart..

    Right wingers will believe anything..They are low IQ imbeciles

  29. Cloggie on Fri, 8th Feb 2019 11:58 pm 

    Too bad no of those people are united..
    You just make up unfounded fantasies..

    You understand nothing of history, dumb amerotard.

    What does that mean, “united”?

    Until Barbarossa, there never was an official US-UK-USSR alliance, only the formal diplomatic recognition by the US of the largest human slaughterhouse USSR in 1933:

    https://youtu.be/SKxYebQPBGQ

    It was the first act of the new US government, the first US government owned by the kikes, and they didn’t wasted a second to team up with that other kiken-run shitpile, the USSR.

    One year later, back-bencher Churchill, who was in great financial trouble, was quietly approached by a group of jewish financiers, who began to support him, on the condition that he would beat the war drums in parliament against Germany, that successfully had defeated the jews in Germany and their communist party. He did. And behind the back of Chamberlain he began to conspire with Stalin via his jewish ambassafor Maisky:

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/27/churchill-stalin-alliance-as-of-1934/

    See, amero-dummy: this is all it takes to set up an alliance. A few nods in back-rooms.

    Have you any idea what Xi, Putin and Juncker are discussing behind closed doors about what to do with the empire that still thinks it exceptionally owns the world?

    You need to listen to signals:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/junckereu/status/976061272293871616?lang=en

    https://www.rt.com/news/387313-us-losing-leadership-eu-mogherini/

    Chinese admiral: “Americans can take no casualties”

    Donald Tusk: “special place in hell for brexiteers”.

    Ignore these signals mobster and in a couple of years Anglosphere no longer exists and we’ll be playing soccer with your marxist skull.

  30. John on Sat, 9th Feb 2019 3:41 am 

    Why is it Americans think that just because they will use less oil, then global oil consumption will decreasse?

    https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-full-report.pdf

    In Africa oil consumption has increased from 3 to 4 million barrels per day in the last 10 years.

    In Asia oil consumption has increased from 26 to 34 million barrels per day over that time.

    The average African uses 1 barrel of oil per year. The average American uses 20.

    They want a car just like Americans have and are buying second hand cars which would otherwise have been scrapped in Japan or Europe.

    https://www.thenational.ae/business/africa-the-land-of-second-hand-unwanted-cars-1.155263

    Old Diesel and petrol cars will continue to pollute in Africa for many more years.

  31. Cloggie on Sun, 10th Feb 2019 4:16 am 

    They want a car just like Americans have and are buying second hand cars which would otherwise have been scrapped in Japan or Europe.

    https://www.thenational.ae/business/africa-the-land-of-second-hand-unwanted-cars-1.155263

    Old Diesel and petrol cars will continue to pollute in Africa for many more years.

    Right! In the nineties 2nd and 3rd hand western European cars went to Eastern Europe, the Ukraine and Russia to replace these ridiculous Lada’s and Trabant’s. They now buy new cars, big ones:

    https://c8.alamy.com/comp/JGWJ73/moscow-russia-oct-17-2016-cars-running-on-street-at-downtown-in-moscow-JGWJ73.jpg

    Russians have near-zero environmental consciousness, which is not entirely unrelated to the vast emptiness of their giant country.

    Never realized that Africa is the next stop. Thanks for the insight.

    Nairobi:

    https://tinyurl.com/y4djru6u

  32. Cloggie on Sun, 10th Feb 2019 4:44 am 

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6545475/Admiral-warns-U-S-Chinas-navy-sink-two-aircraft-carriers-kill-10-000-sailors.html#comments

    Chang Wei Ming, Yulin Guangxi Province, China, 1 month ago

    We’ll see who is laughing when China puts its new hypersonic, radar evading ICBM that will strike their targets before even being detected by the US anti-miss.ile systems. New York, Washington, and Los Angeles will be nucle.ar wasteland before America can even respond lol. USA is declining, China is retaking its place as the top count.ry in the world. Live with it.

    I may be a white racialist, nevertheless I am glad that China is around, because this great power could be instrumental in paradoxically saving the white race (Europe and America) in the last moment, in that it takes on the only real enemy white people have world-wide: ZOG

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *