Register

Peak Oil is You


Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)


Page added on May 8, 2017

Bookmark and Share

Art Berman: Don’t Get Used To Today’s Low Oil Prices

Oil expert and geological consultant Art Berman returns to the podcast this week to address head-on the question: Was the Peak Oil theory wrong? With the world “awash” in sub-$50 per barrel oil, were all the warnings about persistently higher future oil prices just a bunch of alarmist hand-wringing?

In a word: No.

Art explains how the current glut of oil created by the US shale boom — along with high crude output by both OPEC and non-OPEC  producers — is a temporary anomaly. Fundamentally, we are not finding nearly as much oil as we need to continue the trajectory of our demand curve. And at the same time, we’re extracting our reserves at a faster rate than ever. That’s a mathematical recipe for a coming supply crunch. It’s not a matter of if, but when:

I’m not interested in spreading any kind of false ideas that we’re running out of oil. We’re not running out of oil. We’re not running out gas. The problem that we’ve had now for the past twenty years is that we seem to have run out of inexpensive oil and gas — and that’s where the so-called shale plays, the offshore deep water kinds of ventures that have dominated the industry now for much of the last twenty years come in.

So, you can always find more. The question is: At what cost? That’s I think an issue that we don’t really want to talk about very much.

The second piece of that is the idea that somehow technology is always going to save us. I think that theme goes way beyond oil and gas and energy. But, it’s certainly prevalent in my line of work which is oil and gas and so the problem there is that people seem to lose the distinction between technology and energy. Technology does not create energy. Technology is simply a way to convert energy, or to convert resources, into work. So, you can improve the technology and basically it allows you to turn the faucet on harder. It doesn’t create any new energy and it certainly doesn’t help you conserve what you already have. In fact quite the opposite. The better the technology the quicker you run through what you have left.

So, yeah, we can always find more oil and gas. But will be able to afford it? Is our global economy capable of managing that cost? That’s really the issue.

We’ve been looking at diminishing returns as far as the size of what we’ve discovered now for the last 40 or 50 years. This was a trend that was of concern long before shale plays came onto the landscape. It’s an endemic problem and the reason why we went into things like tar sands and ultra-deep water.

We’ve got a hundred and fifty years of history of producing oil and gas wells and oil and gas fields around the world. So far, I have not seen the laws of physics give unconventional/shale plays a pass. There’s just nothing unusual about the fact that you should expect to see things grow, then peak, then decline. That’s just the way that natural systems work. All natural systems. Why should an oil field be different than any other natural system?

So, it all comes down to what we are willing to pay for that additional fix of energy? Unless we somehow figure out how to scale back our use of energy, there’s a day of reckoning which isn’t that many years out. Nobody knows exactly when, but soon we’re just not going to be able to do this anymore  — not at $40, $50 or $60 dollars a barrel. The big question is: What are the implications of that?

 



104 Comments on "Art Berman: Don’t Get Used To Today’s Low Oil Prices"

  1. online master\47s degree program on Tue, 15th Jan 2019 4:35 pm 

    It’s not my first time to pay a quick visit this site, i am browsing this web page dailly and take pleasant data from
    here every day.

  2. Latonya on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 2:29 am 

    Many really nice stuff on this website, I like it.

  3. Florida Medicare Advice Professionals on Mon, 11th Feb 2019 12:45 am 

    Oh my goodness! Amazing article dude! Many thanks, However I am going through troubles with
    your RSS. I don’t know why I can’t join it. Is there anybody getting similar RSS problems?
    Anyone that knows the answer can you kindly respond?
    Thanks!!

  4. Jonah on Fri, 15th Feb 2019 1:17 pm 

    He isn’t making much sense. When the PS4 came out, did every PS3 game go free to
    play? No. I’m sure that when the PS5 comes out, a lot of PS4 games will be free, but the popular ones won’t be
    free for at least 2 years AFTER the PS5 comes out

  5. wordpress hosting on Mon, 25th Feb 2019 9:53 pm 

    There is an application process with Intuit and independent accreditation, but also in all likelihood, CSPs already are dealing with larger corporations and even government institutyions that could have more stringent requirements for approval.
    Pleae see it below:”Hostgator Review by John Smith – this host offers numerous options for the hosting that is shared user. With such type of web service, you can easily host your web site with individual site owners.

  6. Psychic Vampire on Tue, 26th Feb 2019 12:07 pm 

    Truly when someone doesn’t know then its up to other
    users that they will assist, so here it takes place.

  7. psychic reading on Wed, 27th Feb 2019 7:27 am 

    A notepad that is handy constitutes a idea to jot down your most precious questions or concerns.
    I say five questions makes number to note down. Kid remains questions you eagerly answered and also close on the heart.
    The the reality is though, maybe a lot kept right now, I commenced as a skeptic.
    As a cynic plus debunker of the things I couldn’t explain. Too as while I was researching and publishing about psychic readings the past a
    long while now.

    even then, In the beginning really believe what To
    become writing about, I just enjoyed this online game with the unexplained!
    The LESS you say, the more accurate a real psychic or medium will become.
    Why? Because genuine psychic abilities, and as a result.genuine psychic professionals do N’t need you health
    much of anything almost all. They want to pay attention to
    your concerns, and address your issues in wherein does N’t need a lot of input,
    insight or feedback from the caller or client.

    This in other words is called Web the.0 You have the latest psychic information with a blog on psychic development.
    A number of the articles relating to the blog are truly
    ground breading. Here of the latest article page titles.
    Now consider that same scenario where it is possible to to exceed your “hopeful feelings” and tune interested
    in your “psychic feelings”. I guarantee you that you’ll then either
    accept the job with confidence or decide it really isn’t ideal job for
    you personally personally.

    And be 100% right in your decision! Examine helpfulness.
    Less well known at the historical past of the psychic and discover if there’s help coming their own side from articles,
    online clairvoyant profiles, and a standard helpful aspects.
    When you use psychic chat you are looking to get specific information. Make sure the psychic you consider hiring has helpfulness
    as a part of their nature to together with better
    value during the reading.

    The disputes and conflicts should be settled by Friday, February 24th,
    as well as the weekend could bring online psychic suggestions into
    our minds with the Sun winking at Jupiter.

  8. harrahs casino on Wed, 27th Feb 2019 2:46 pm 

    When we use physical casinos any problems might be
    managed quickly aand efficiently. Yoou wikl have comfort in the event you subscribe
    with online gambling sites who have superior security features.
    This is the most common method of nowadays on the net business not merrely as it costs much less
    bbut in addition it’s able to go.

  9. Darryl on Sun, 3rd Mar 2019 7:09 pm 

    Practice good will. An excellent instance: This week a client asked concerning

    locating a particular checklist for him. He asked,
    ” Well, exactly how are you going to generate income on this?”
    My response?
    ” I will not and I don’t have to – all I did was refer you to

    somebody who could assist you out.”

  10. Archie on Fri, 15th Mar 2019 9:17 am 

    With the growth of virtual aides has also been a

    modification in what it suggests to be a digital

    assistant. The leaders as well as founders of this particular

    business job have actually made distinctions in between what it
    suggests to be an online assistant, and also just
    what it

    doesn’t mean. When you are discussing your company to others, you desire to
    see to it to keep this

    criterion.

  11. https://bestclass.co.il/ on Mon, 18th Mar 2019 12:33 pm 

    Hello, I think your blog might be having browser compatibility issues.
    When I look at your blog site in Chrome, it looks fine but when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping.
    I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other then that,
    terrific blog!

  12. thời sự xã hội Việt nam on Sun, 24th Mar 2019 1:36 pm 

    I have to thank you for the efforts you have put in writing this blog.
    I’m hoping to check out the same high-grade content
    from you later on as well. In truth, your creative writing abilities has motivated me to get my own, personal blog now 😉

  13. branatcasino.com on Sat, 30th Mar 2019 7:15 am 

    Feeling overwhelmed? There’s more of that below.

  14. art-Decu.ru on Mon, 1st Apr 2019 8:28 am 

    That’s the beauty of playing slots at 888casino.

  15. 2bacsi dribbble on Wed, 3rd Apr 2019 9:18 am 

    After I initially left a comment I appear to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments
    are added- checkbox and now each time a comment is
    added I get four emails with the exact same comment.

    There has to be a means you are able to remove me from
    that service? Thanks!

  16. m3 led headlight bulbs on Sun, 7th Apr 2019 3:08 am 

    Excellent weblog right here! Also your site rather a lot up fast! What web host are you the usage of? Can I get your affiliate hyperlink for your host? I desire my site loaded up as quickly as yours lol

  17. 2bacsi creativemarket on Sun, 7th Apr 2019 12:04 pm 

    Thank you, I’ve just been searching for info approximately this
    subject for a long time and yours is the best I have came
    upon so far. However, what about the conclusion?
    Are you positive in regards to the source?

  18. 2bacsi sketchfab on Sun, 7th Apr 2019 1:05 pm 

    Hi there Dear, are you truly visiting this web site on a regular
    basis, if so afterward you will absolutely get good knowledge.

  19. 2bacsi github on Sun, 7th Apr 2019 4:02 pm 

    Pretty! This was a really wonderful article. Thanks for providing these details.

  20. Cloggie on Sun, 7th Apr 2019 4:09 pm 

    Please stop spamming my Brexit\WW2\Trump fan page 2bacsi github. If you want pointers and tips and how to spam and, ahem ‘clogg’ a comments section up like a real pro, send me a message c/o

    Cloggie@soros.net

    I will help you teach you everything you need to know about trolling, spamming, and being a complete waste of space. However, you are going to need to find another website to do it, as thing one is taken.

    Thank you.
    Cloggshyster

  21. Davy on Sun, 7th Apr 2019 5:02 pm 

    cloggo, looks like anon is doing a juanpee with your identity. Dumbasses need to be banned.

  22. Not Davy on Sun, 7th Apr 2019 7:05 pm 

    JuanPee posted this not Davy

    Davy on Sun, 7th Apr 2019 5:02 pm

  23. Cloggie on Mon, 8th Apr 2019 12:41 am 

    cloggo, looks like anon is doing a juanpee with your identity.

    No, its anonymouse, the boards [cough] intellectual, who keeps linking me to George Soros, in total contrast to all I have said about Soros’ tribe.

    You can’t fix stupid.

  24. Cloggie on Mon, 8th Apr 2019 12:49 am 

    Breakfast again, and the topic is once again Brexit and all things related.

    The good news, one of my absolute EU-favorites (Michel Barnier and Donald Tusk) is using his momentum to volunteer to succeed Juncker as EU-chieftain: he is green-right and (obviously) pro-Europe. Exactly my kinda guy.

    https://www.spiegel.de/plus/michel-barnier-der-einzige-brexit-gewinner-a-00000000-0002-0001-0000-000163279549

    And finally a guy with stature, from a big country:

    http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/32620

  25. Davy on Mon, 8th Apr 2019 6:25 am 

    “No, its anonymouse, the boards [cough] intellectual, who keeps linking me to George Soros, in total contrast to all I have said about Soros’ tribe.”

    That’s what I said cloggo. makato calls anonymouse affectionately annon.

  26. 2bacsi artstation on Tue, 9th Apr 2019 5:31 pm 

    Thanks , I’ve just been searching for information about
    this subject for a while and yours is the greatest I’ve discovered till now.
    But, what concerning the bottom line? Are you positive concerning the supply?

  27. Kara on Wed, 10th Apr 2019 1:34 pm 

    Aw, this was an exceptionally nice post. Taking a few minutes and actual
    effort to generate a superb article… but what can I say… I hesitate a
    lot and never manage to get anything done.

  28. visit this link on Thu, 11th Apr 2019 3:38 pm 

    Awesome things here. I am very happy to peer your post.
    Thanks a lot and I am having a look forward
    to contact you. Will you please drop me a e-mail?

  29. Https://www.judaicawebstore.com on Fri, 12th Apr 2019 5:12 am 

    I am in fact delighted to glance at this blog posts which contains plenty
    of valuable data, thanks for providing such information.

  30. 2bacsi gamespot on Thu, 18th Apr 2019 9:19 am 

    Wonderful, what a web site it is! This web site gives helpful data to us, keep
    it up.

  31. https://about.me/trafficsafetystore on Mon, 6th May 2019 3:22 pm 

    I thіnk your recommendation would be beneficial foг me.
    I wilⅼ inform you if its wⲟrk for me tօⲟ.
    Ꭲhanks for sharing this wonderful articles. thanks a lot.

  32. www.storeboard.com on Mon, 6th May 2019 4:25 pm 

    Gοod article, I’m goіng to spend m᧐rе tіme learning about this topic.

  33. Minds.Com on Tue, 7th May 2019 4:14 am 

    I desired to thank ʏou а lot more for tһis incredible website you’vе creatеd here.

    Ӏt is truⅼy is fᥙll of beneficial tips for thօse who
    are tгuly іnterested in tһis subject, еspecially this very post.

  34. www.deviantart.com on Tue, 7th May 2019 11:56 am 

    I гeally ⅼike your way of writing, good
    informatіⲟn, many tһanks for posting.

  35. Ignacio on Tue, 7th May 2019 9:15 pm 

    I do trust all of the ideas үou’ve sһoᴡn in your post.

    Theу’re trսly convincing ɑnd can dеfinitely ᴡork.
    Thank yοu for the post.

  36. https://bestlivesexcamsites.club on Sat, 1st Jun 2019 5:52 am 

    top rated webcam sites random live cam best camcorder for live streaming
    video

  37. https://pooh-jas.blogspot.com on Sun, 2nd Jun 2019 11:45 am 

    This design is wicked! You definitely know how to keep a
    reader entertained. Between your wit and your videos, I was almost moved to start my
    own blog (well, almost…HaHa!) Fantastic job. I really enjoyed what you had
    to say, and more than that, how you presented it.

    Too cool!

  38. berita harian online difteria on Tue, 25th Jun 2019 4:49 pm 

    Great info. Lucky me I found your website by chance (stumbleupon).

    I have book marked it for later!

  39. healthtipsblog.net on Thu, 27th Jun 2019 10:01 am 

    Great post. I was checking continuously this blog and I’m
    impressed! Extremely useful information specially the last section :
    ) I care for such information much. I used to be looking for this particular info for a
    very lengthy time. Thank you and good luck.

  40. NK on Wed, 17th Jul 2019 9:16 am 

    I don’t know whether it’s just me or if everybody else
    experiencing problems with your site. It appears as if some of the text on your posts are running
    off the screen. Can someone else please provide feedback
    and let me know if this is happening to them as
    well? This might be a problem with my web browser because I’ve had this
    happen previously. Thanks

  41. https://crow-Eden.blogspot.com on Fri, 19th Jul 2019 10:50 pm 

    Quality articles or reviews is the secret to invite the users to pay a quick visit the website,
    that’s what this web site is providing.

  42. https://chilgok-kropanma.blogspot.com on Fri, 19th Jul 2019 11:13 pm 

    Oh my goodness! Amazing article dude! Thank you so much, However I am encountering difficulties with your RSS.
    I don’t understand the reason why I am unable to join it. Is there anyone else getting the same
    RSS problems? Anyone who knows the answer can you kindly respond?
    Thanx!!

  43. https://cheonan-softanma.blogspot.com on Sat, 20th Jul 2019 7:40 am 

    Superb, what a website it is! This web site provides
    helpful facts to us, keep it up.

  44. https://www.sejongtile.kr/ on Sun, 21st Jul 2019 5:29 am 

    Excellent blog right here! Additionally your website rather a lot up very fast!
    What host are you the usage of? Can I get your affiliate link in your host?
    I desire my website loaded up as quickly as yours lol

  45. https://Maxine-Kangaroo.blogspot.com on Sun, 21st Jul 2019 6:23 pm 

    It’s enormous that you are getting thoughts from this post as well as from our dialogue
    made here.

  46. https://Miracle-Crane.blogspot.com on Sun, 21st Jul 2019 11:46 pm 

    What’s up all, here every one is sharing these kinds of familiarity, so it’s pleasant to read this web site, and I used
    to go to see this weblog everyday.

  47. https://Deshawn-fox.blogspot.com on Mon, 22nd Jul 2019 7:16 am 

    This info is worth everyone’s attention. Where can I find out
    more?

  48. Davy on Mon, 22nd Jul 2019 12:46 pm 

    The robots can stay. They don’t have opinions that upset my widdle feelings.

  49. https://Mariella-turtle.blogspot.com on Mon, 22nd Jul 2019 1:33 pm 

    Hi there, after reading this amazing article i am
    also glad to share my know-how here with friends.

  50. ID theft on Mon, 22nd Jul 2019 1:43 pm 

    Davy on Mon, 22nd Jul 2019 12:46 pm

    The robots can stay. They don’t have opinions that upset my widdle feelings.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *