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Page added on December 14, 2019

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Are We In Peak Oil Demand?

Consumption

Estimates are widely varied, so how can we even begin to answer this important question?

No one seems to agree just exactly when POD (peak oil demand) will occur. Let’s look at some of the projections by major institutions in this regard. This is just a sampling to indicate the wide discrepancy in views.

OPEC says demand for oil will continue to rise into the early 2040’s, then peak and fall off towards the end of that decade. Most oil companies agree with those projections, while BP (British Petroleum) is probably the least bullish of the big oils seeing the mid-2030’s as the point of POD, with consumption hitting over 125 million bpd. Currently, we are around 100 MM bpd consumption. Of that consumption, 55% is burned in transportation, 30% of that is used in personal ground transportation, and 25% is in all other forms of transport: aircraft, ships, trains.

The IEA (International Energy Agency) predicts POD in the mid-2030’s, but that’s just one of its scenarios. It supplies a number of different views depending on conditions, such as the speed with which EVs are adopted, the impact of PHEVs, and ride-sharing services. However, even in its most aggressive scenario, peak ICE does not hit until the mid-2020s, while many others forecast peak ICE will have already occurred. The IEA also predicts that only 30 million EVs will be on the road in 2040.

GS (Goldman Sachs) sees POD in 2024. Its forecast is for demand to grow at 1.2 MMbpd for 2019 and 2020, respectively, 50,000 barrels per day lower than the earlier forecast.  This is the general consensus of most analysts, that POD will occur mid-decade.

The most aggressive view I could find regarding the onset of POD was from ARK Invest. Its view is that we are already in POD or very close to it. ARK believes that demand for oil will slow and stall at around 100 MMbpd, then plateau and begin to fall in just a few years. Moreover, ARK asserts that, in 2022, oil production will decline and never recover, with close to 30 million EVs on the road in 2024, 15 years sooner than big oil predicts.

If ARK’s view is correct, then we should already be seeing signs of falling production and/or lower prices for products produced from oil.

I think, contrary to what big oil and the preponderance of analysts say, ARK Invest is correct. We are seeing OPEC cutting production in an attempt to shore up the price of oil. The world is currently, and has been for some time, awash in the stuff. Prices have remained stubbornly low and while OPEC has said the world economy can take $100 a barrel oil, they can’t seem to get the price up to even $70 a barrel.

Big Oil wants to placate investors who have been fleeing the oil patch in record numbers. Investments in exploration companies have fallen off the table, and various projects for recovering expensive oil have been tabled or abandoned entirely, as the low price of oil makes these investments entirely speculative and likely to lose money.

The above are all signs we are in the period of POD already and things will likely only get worse, at least for the oil companies and their investors, who are none too happy with the market going up leaps and bounds while the oil sector does next to nothing.

OPEC already has plans to discuss lowering oil production again at its next meeting. Why, in the world of increasing demand that it describes, would this be necessary? Finally, saying that other uses for oil — such as increased aviation fuel and petrochemical demand — will replace the fall in demand for gasoline and diesel due to the proliferation of EVs and PHEVs is an argument based on wishful thinking more than it is akin to reality.

One might think that this decline in demand for oil was precipitated by the trade war between the U.S. and China, and while that has certainly been a factor in reducing demand, it’s just another paragraph in the story that is the disruption and decline in oil demand and use that we are currently just beginning to experience.

I think, in 2040, demand for oil will be down to around 60 MMbpd, almost half of what it is today.

What do you think?



174 Comments on "Are We In Peak Oil Demand?"

  1. T. Tobias on Fri, 20th Dec 2019 8:34 pm 

    I second The Board’s motion to permanently ban Davy.

    He does not contain a single redeeming characteristic.

  2. typical JuanP bazarre insanity on Fri, 20th Dec 2019 8:46 pm 

    T. Tobias on Fri, 20th Dec 2019 8:34 pm

    I second The Board’s motion to permanently ban Davy.

  3. Schizophrenia on Fri, 20th Dec 2019 9:12 pm 

    SYMPTOMS

    Delusions. These are false beliefs that are not based in reality.

    you think that you’re being harmed or harassed… Yeap

    certain gestures or comments are directed at you….Yeap

    you have exceptional ability or fame….Yeap

    or a major catastrophe is about to occur…Yeap

    Rarely, speech may include putting together meaningless words that can’t be understood, sometimes known as word salads…..Yeap

    WHEN TO SEE A DOCTOR

    People with schizophrenia often lack awareness that their difficulties stem from a mental disorder that requires medical attention. So it often falls to family or friends to get them help.

    Laws on involuntary commitment for mental health treatment vary by state. You can contact community mental health agencies or police departments in your area for details.

    https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/schizophrenia/symptoms-causes/syc-20354443

  4. this is common JuanP bazarre insanity on Fri, 20th Dec 2019 9:38 pm 

    Davy on Tue, 17th Dec 2019 7:45 am

    Members please lobby the owners and get JuanP banned. If he would ignore me, I will ignore him this would stop this trash immediately. The problem is JuanP likes this behavior because he is an egotistical psychopath. He wants to feel important and in charge plus he is mentally ill. One need only search comment history to see this in his own words. BTW, he can’t argue ID theft because back

  5. this is committed bazzare insanity JuanP on Fri, 20th Dec 2019 9:40 pm 

    Schizophrenia on Fri, 20th Dec 2019 9:12 pm

    SYMPTOMS

    Delusions. These are false beliefs that are not based in reality.

    you think that you’re being harmed or harassed… Yeap

  6. REAL Green on Fri, 20th Dec 2019 10:05 pm 

    JuanP isn’t here Davy.

    That is one of our many false beliefs that are not based in reality.

  7. The Truth Shall Set You Free on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 1:18 am 

    “JuanP isn’t here Davy. That is one of our many false beliefs that are not based in reality.”

    MORAL OF THE STORY: Trumptards of a feather always flock together.

  8. JuanP is stupid on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 4:07 am 

    I think we are close to losing stupid. Geeze, he was especially loony last night.

    This volume of stupid was from stupid:

    The Truth Shall Set You Free said “JuanP isn’t here Davy. That is one of our m…

    REAL Green said Uhhh Davy? Urgenda isn’t in South America anymore….

    daily bazarre lonely JuanP said REAL Green on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 12:24 am Can we…

    REAL Green said Can we please go to sleep now Davy? This hole Juan…

    usual lonely bazzare JuanP said makati1 on Fri, 20th Dec 2019 11:57 pm China is n…

    Davy said “China’s Diplomatic Ties Surge In 2019, Over…

    more lonely insanity JuanP said Cloggie on Fri, 20th Dec 2019 10:50 pm We need a…

    Cloggie said We need a total trade war against the US! https://

    Davy said Who cares cloggo. Urgenda is a tiny shithole south…

    Cloggie said Former Shell CEO Jeroen van der Veer praises IPCC…

    cloggie said Urgenda wins lawsuit in the Netherlands: https://w

    REAL Green said JuanP isn’t here Davy. That is one of our many fal…

    this is committed bazzare insanity JuanP said Schizophrenia on Fri, 20th Dec 2019 9:12 pm SYMPT…

    this is common JuanP bazarre insanity said Davy on Tue, 17th Dec 2019 7:45 am Members please…

    Schizophrenia said SYMPTOMS Delusions. These are false beliefs that a…

    REAL Green said Wee need to see the docter Davy.

    this is usual JuanP bazarre insanity said makati1 on Fri, 20th Dec 2019 5:51 pm Is PO runni…

    typical JuanP bazarre insanity said T. Tobias on Fri, 20th Dec 2019 8:34 pm I second…

    T. Tobias said I second The Board’s motion to permanently b…

    REAl Green said There write Davy. We need to see the docter. REAL..

  9. REAL Green on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 4:27 am 

    “Top scientists warn of an Amazon ‘tipping point”
    https://tinyurl.com/y42ntndr faster than expected

    “Lovejoy and Nobre said they decided to sound a dire alarm about the Amazon after witnessing the acceleration of troubling trends. The combination of rising temperatures, crippling wildfires and ongoing land clearing for cattle ranching and crops has extended dry seasons, killed off water-sensitive vegetation and created conditions for more fire. The Amazon is 17 percent deforested, but for the large portion of it inside Brazil, the figure is closer to 20 percent. The fear is that soon there will be so little forest that the trees, which not only soak up enormous quantities of rainwater but also give off mist that aids agriculture and sustains innumerable species, won’t be able to recycle enough rainfall. At that point, much of the rainforest could decline into a drier savanna ecosystem. Rainfall patterns would change across much of South America. Several hundred billion tons of carbon dioxide could wind up in the atmosphere, worsening climate change. And such a feedback loop would be tough to reverse. That point of no return, commonly referred to by scientists as a tipping point, “is much closer than we anticipated,” Nobre said in an interview. Higher temperatures and deforestation are drying out parts of the Amazon and posing a fundamental threat to the rainforest.”

  10. REAL Green on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 4:41 am 

    “Can the Internet Survive Climate Change?”
    https://tinyurl.com/uumyoud no tech mag

    “Engineers within the nascent community of sustainable web design agree on a few core tenets: Advertising is bad, the growth of video streaming must slow, web pages are too bloated, and corporate surveillance has to end.”

  11. Davy on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 6:19 am 

    “Dystopian Toilet Adds Raging Quad Pain For Employees Taking ‘Netflix And Poo’ Breaks”
    https://tinyurl.com/rp24u5p Zero hedge

    “For those who deal with the occasional stubborn poop, a new startup’s toilet design will add a new level of difficulty to that prize-fight; your quads will be on fire.
    Designed by UK-based StandardToilet, the new ‘throne’, tilted at a 13-degree angle, supposedly provides a myriad of health benefits – while encouraging employees to abandon the occasional ‘Netflix and poo’ break do to the fact that it becomes uncomfortable to sit on after just five minutes of use”

  12. JuanP is stupid on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 6:21 am 

    Stupid is up. stupid you didn’t get much sleep last night. Are you losing it? LMFAO.

    this is from stupid:
    Davy said “Dystopian Toilet Adds Raging Quad Pain For Employ…

  13. Davy on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 6:51 am 

    “America’s Fragmentation Accelerates”
    https://tinyurl.com/v7lf237 zero hedge

    “As our fragmentation accelerates, shared economic interests are ignored in favor of divisive warring camps that share no common interests. That our society and economy are fragmenting is s8elf-evident. This fragmentation is accelerating rapidly, as middle ground vanishes and competing camps harden their positions to solidify the loyalty of the “tribe.” All or nothing, either-or binaries are the order of the day: you’re either 100% with us or 100% against us, you’re either part of the solution or part of the problem. As fragmentation accelerates, “tribes” splinter into warring groups who compete for members of once-broad-based movements. Moderation is no longer tolerated as it smacks of mixed loyalties or (most dangerous) independent analysis and action.”

  14. Cloggie on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 7:38 am 

    “America’s Fragmentation Accelerates”
    https://tinyurl.com/v7lf237 zero hedge

    Article avoids naming the real causes of the stand-off.

    Zero reference to “race”, “demography”, “white”, “deplorable”, etc.

    Officially the conflict is between “globalists” and “constitutionalists”/”nationalists”, between red states and blue states, between Reps and Dems, between fortress America and open borders.

    Terms everybody uses to avoid pointing at the real schism: race.

    It is white America against coloreds and white leftists.

    Solution: there is none, other than separation.

    The left is rubbing in their hands about all the bills they intend to send to white America and enforce total “equality” (in income, not in productivity), once they have the electoral upper hand, probably as of 2024… for ever.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOMsCUeZ6rw

    “Dr. Paul Craig Roberts: U.S. Is A Third World Country By 2024”

    The (((organizers))) of this state of affairs were still gloating in 2014 about the seemingly immanent demise of white America, that is to be made powerless. Krugman is an exact copy of his fellow kike I AM THE MOB on this board:

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/27/paul-krugman-white-americans-are-losing-their-country/

    Meanwhile, 5 years later, the very same Krugman isn’t that sure anymore about the announced victory over white America (victory by the jews, that is):

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2019/01/07/the-good-news-zog-is-dying/

    Our far less smarter resident bolshevik I AM THE MOB still thinks he can rape white women… because he has left 640 million Europeans and 1350 million Chinese out of the equation.

    Krugman hasn’t. He fears for the future of the West, as in none.

    Krugman is correct.

  15. JuanP is stupid on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 7:44 am 

    Stupid and his. Stupidity

    This is from stupid:
    Davy said “America’s Fragmentation Accelerates” https:…

    The Board said We thank you for your commentary Cloggie. Please k…

  16. The Board on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 7:47 am 

    Do not feed the JuanP is stupid / REAL Green / Davyskum troll. It will self destruct all by it’s lonesome.

  17. Davy on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 7:49 am 

    Poor Cloggo and his racist sniveling WordPress shit. At least he is not stupid like Stupid. The Cloggo does contribute a little. Stupid is a high school drop out with a goal in life to be king troll of PO dot com’s unmoderated forum.

    Too funny

  18. The Board on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 7:52 am 

    We all thank you for your excellent blog Cloggie.

    Keep up the good work!

  19. The Board on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 7:52 am 

    The Board is stupid when juanPee is around

  20. The Board on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 7:54 am 

    What? Cloggie is a racist freak

  21. Cloggie on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 7:55 am 

    JuanP is a lunatic

  22. Cloggie on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 7:55 am 

    This just in: Kremlin says that the construction of the Nord Stream pipeline will be completed:

    https://www.telegraaf.nl/financieel/1006420704/kremlin-aanleg-gaspijpleiding-nord-stream-2-gaat-door

    Allseas is not the only company that can lay pipelines. Russians can do that too.

    But both Nord Stream and South Stream were build build by Dutch, who unfortunately have too many ties with the Great Satan to ignore.

    (Exactly the same reason why the Dutch really unleashed WW2 by giving in to strong pressure from Churchill to allow overpass over Dutch territory for French and British troops in May 1940, the real cause of the German preemptive invasion, preempting with 12 hours that is. Norway in April 1940, same story).

  23. Schizophrenia on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 8:01 am 

    SYMPTOMS

    Delusions.

    These are false beliefs that are not based in reality.

    – you think that you’re being harmed or harassed

    -certain gestures or comments are directed at you

    -you have exceptional ability or fame

    -a major catastrophe is about to occur.

    Delusions occur in most people with schizophrenia.

    https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/schizophrenia/symptoms-causes/syc-20354443

  24. Cloggie on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 8:47 am 

    “Interference in domestic affairs’: Germany fumes at US sanctions on Nord Stream 2 pipeline‘

    https://www.rt.com/news/476549-germany-responds-nordstream-sanctions/

    “Nord Stream 2 stockt auf den letzten Kilometern”

    https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/nord-stream-2-us-sanktionen-lassen-ostsee-pipeline-auf-letzten-kilometern-stocken-a-1302451.html

    300 km missing.

    It is a blow for sure. The Dutch, the global undisputed #1 in all things offshore…

    https://www.iro-catalogue.nl/company_7

    …operate from Houston as well to service platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and have the most advanced offshore pipeline ships worldwide, the Russians don’t have. The Russians have icbm’s, to blow up NYC, for instance.

    Yet the upshot is still positive. The pipeline will be completed with great delay, perhaps a year, with shabby Russians vessels, but Europe will realize we don’t have an alliance of friends and Brexit will add to the growing doubt regarding our Anglo friends.

    Smartass Macron had already drawn the correct conclusion: the future for continental Europe is in Eurasia.

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