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The Great Pause Week 61: Swallow the Doctor

The Great Pause Week 61: Swallow the Doctor thumbnail

“The first successful transubstantiation is estimated to happen around 2035. After that we will each be able to back ourselves up to the cloud, if we can afford the data plan.

Elon Musk and Peter Diamandis, May 5, 2021 X-Prize Launch

 

 

Near the start of World War II, Robert A. Heinlein published a story in Astounding Science Fiction called “Waldo.” In this fantasy, Waldo Farthingwaite-Jones was born too weak to even hold his head up or grasp a spoon. Perhaps he was also on the spectrum. He channeled his mind into the “Waldo F. Jones’ Synchronous Reduplicating Pantograph,” a prosthetic glove that directed a much more powerful mechanical hand. Waldo SRP hands could be different sizes, either huge for building construction or microscopic for micro-manipulation.

Seventeen years later, a former graduate student of U-Cal physicist Richard Feynman came to his mentor with an interesting idea. Feynman revealed the idea in the annual lecture at the American Physical Society meeting that year. As a thought experiment, he proposed a Waldo-like manipulator hand that could build one-quarter scale machine tools and a controller to operate them. This set of small tools would then be used by the new controller to build one-sixteenth-scale controllers and tools, and so forth. Repeat that process 40 times and you are at a one billionth scale, running perhaps a billion tiny factories to produce still smaller tools. Ninety steps and you are at a septillionth.

In his 1986 book, Engines of Creation, K. Eric Drexler postulated beyond machine tools to molecular computers and cell repair robots circulating through the bloodstream. Here, take this pill. Swallow the doctor.

In The Singularity Is Near, Ray Kurzweil predicted that such medical nanorobotics might completely remedy the effects of aging by 2030.

Recently I was in Clubhouse, a chatroom app, listening to a discussion about epigenetics when one of the British participants opined that he would rather live a few years well than a great many years more. To which the moderator replied, “Why choose?”

I can think of why. So could Thomas Malthus, Paul and Anne Ehrlich, and the framers of the UN Convention on Biodiversity. Quoting a recent Ehrlich paper:

Over 70% of all people currently live in countries that run a biocapacity deficit while also having less than world-average income, excluding them from compensating their biocapacity deficit….

And yet, despite this ghastly arithmetic (‘ghastly’ being the adjective chosen by the authors to include in the title of the paper), the world is still marching in singularity file down a Kurzweilian primrose path, assuming that if we have a problem, sooner than popular demand requires, there will be an app for that.

Although population-connected climate change will worsen human mortality, morbidity, development, cognition, agricultural yields, and conflicts, there is no way — ethically or otherwise (barring extreme and unprecedented increases in human mortality) — to avoid rising human numbers and the accompanying overconsumption.

 — Bradshaw et al, Understanding the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future (2021)

Those who wish to achieve longer lives themselves cite not only nanomedicine, but rapid breakthroughs in tissue rejuvenation, stem cells, regenerative medicine, molecular repair, gene therapy, telomere generating pharmaceuticals, organ replacement, bionic prosthetics, and xenotransplantations. Many speculate, if not promise, that surprises even more game-changing may eventually enable humans to have indefinite lifespans or even revert to the bodies of teenagers. Possible ramifications are consigned to the wax-sealed echo chambers of bickering bioethicists.

 

Hormone treatments to reverse the aging process already earn about $50 billion per year. Some clinics currently offer injection of blood products from young donors. The promises of the treatment, none of which have been demonstrated, include a longer life, darker hair, better memory, better sleep, and a cure for Alzheimer’s. Billionaire backers include Larry Ellison (founder of Oracle), Peter Thiel (former PayPal CEO), Larry Page (co-founder of Google), and Peter Diamandis (Singularity University and the X-Prize). You may have seen it parodied in an episode of Silicon Valley, the HBO series, but two clinics in California actually offer $8,000 injections of plasma extracted from the blood of young people. A 2013 Pew Research poll in the United States found that 38% of Americans would want life extension treatments for themselves, and 68% believed most people would want it if offered the choice. Religious persuasion, according to the poll, does not enter into the decision.

Leon Kass, chairman of President George W. Bush’s Council on Bioethics, called these attitudes “an expression of a childish and narcissistic wish incompatible with devotion to posterity.” On the other side, biogerontologist Aubrey De Grey suggested that the therapy could postpone or eliminate menopause, allowing women to space out their pregnancies over more years and thus decreasing the yearly population growth rate.

 

We have already found ways to increase the lifespan of microscopic nematode worms and yeasts by 10-fold, although 2009 paper cautioned:

“Extrapolation from worms to mammals is risky at best, and it cannot be assumed that interventions will result in comparable life extension factors. Longevity gains from dietary restriction, or from mutations studied previously, yield smaller benefits to Drosophila than to nematodes, and smaller still to mammals. This is not unexpected, since mammals have evolved to live many times the worm’s lifespan, and humans live nearly twice as long as the next longest-lived primate. From an evolutionary perspective, mammals and their ancestors have already undergone several hundred million years of natural selection favoring traits that could directly or indirectly favor increased longevity….”

The main goal of the 2045 Initiative, brainchild of Russian entrepreneur Dmitry Itskov is:

“to create technologies enabling the transfer of an individual’s personality to a more advanced non-biological carrier, and extending life, including to the point of immortality. We devote particular attention to enabling the fullest possible dialogue between the world’s major spiritual traditions, science and society.”

The Initiative has the goal for the “advanced non-biological carrier” controlled by a “brain-computer” interface (I always think of the Borg when I read this) that between 2030 and 2035 would be able to transfer a human consciousness, and by 2045 create a new era for humanity with holographic bodies. The first successful transubstantiation is estimated to happen around 2035. After that we will each be able to back ourselves up to the cloud, if we can afford the data plan.

Which leads me to speculate about the designer avatar bodies of the future. Could we come back as our favorite comic book hero? fashion model? movie star? Or maybe a werewolf? sprite? Medusa? Maybe we will change avatars season to season, like we would change clothing or hairstyles.

The longest documented human lifespan is 122 years — Jeanne Calment who, according to records, was born in 1875 and died in 1997. If any of us is still around in 2070 we will see if Ray Kurzweil breaks her record. Assuming we recognize Ray as Ray.

The goal of the UN Commission on Population and Development (founded in 1946) is to carry out the accords of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), which met for the first time at Lake Geneva in 1927 and most recently at Nairobi in 2019. Today its function is merely to advocate for four qualitative and quantitative goals:

  • Universal education: Universal primary education in all countries; wider access for women to secondary and higher level education, vocational and technical training.
  • Reduction of infant and child mortality: Below 35 per 1,000 live births and under-five mortality below 45 per 1,000.
  • Reduction of maternal mortality: Halving by decade and narrowing differences between geographical regions, socio-economic and ethnic groups.
  • Access to reproductive and sexual health services including active discouragement of female genital mutilation.

These four goals are all directed at the single purpose of halting and reversing population growth, something that was generally conceived of as a long-term threat in 1927, but which is less concerning today, given the demographic reversal underway in the largest, urbanizing nations. And yet, we should still be concerned. Here’s why.

When the ecological footprint of a population exceeds the biocapacity of the environment it lives in, this is called “biocapacity deficit.” Typically it comes from three sources: overusing one’s own ecosystems (“overshoot”), “trade imbalances” between adjoining systems, and misallocation of the commons.

The biological capacity of an ecosystem is an estimate of its production of certain biological materials and relationships we like to call natural resources, and its absorption and filtering of wastes and pollutants we like to call ecosystem services — functions such as removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

For example, there were 12.2 billion hectares of biologically productive land and water areas on this planet in 2016. Dividing by the number of people alive in that year, 7.4 billion, yields a biocapacity of 1.6 global hectares per person. But that average includes protected and unprotected areas occupied by wild and migratory species, inhospitable regions like the summit of Everest or the submerging Everglades, and places of vital habitats for insects, plants, and microbes that compete with people for space.

As we slide seamlessly from 7 billion to 8 billion humans, each generation more powerful, polluting, and destructive than the previous, I have to wonder whether one century is too much time to allow a “natural” progression into negative population growth, or whether the biodiversity damage a century like this one will inflict could be incalculable and irreversible, if not terminal for us. Think about the honey bees and hummingbirds. Think about the sudden absence of insects we are seeing all over the world, and how that soon may affect populations farther up or down the food chain.

Now, Mr. Biotech Billionaire, are you serious about populating the world with thousands or millions of bicentiniarians and tricentinarians?

References:

Beisel, Uli, and Christophe Boëte. “The flying public health tool: genetically modified mosquitoes and malaria control.” Science as Culture 22, no. 1 (2013): 38–60.

Bradshaw, Corey JA, Paul R. Ehrlich, Andrew Beattie, Gerardo Ceballos, Eileen Crist, Joan Diamond, Rodolfo Dirzo et al. “Underestimating the challenges of avoiding a ghastly future.” Frontiers in Conservation Science 1 (2021): 9.

English, Simon G., Natalia I. Sandoval-Herrera, Christine A. Bishop, Melissa Cartwright, France Maisonneuve, John E. Elliott, and Kenneth C. Welch. “Neonicotinoid pesticides exert metabolic effects on avian pollinators.” Scientific reports 11, no. 1 (2021): 1–11.

Köhler, Heinz-R., and Rita Triebskorn. “Wildlife ecotoxicology of pesticides: can we track effects to the population level and beyond?.” Science 341, no. 6147 (2013): 759–765.


The COVID-19 pandemic has destroyed lives, livelihoods, and economies. But it has not slowed down climate change, which presents an existential threat to all life, humans included. The warnings could not be stronger: temperatures and fires are breaking records, greenhouse gas levels keep climbing, sea level is rising, and natural disasters are upsizing.

As the world confronts the pandemic and emerges into recovery, there is growing recognition that the recovery must be a pathway to a new carbon economy, one that goes beyond zero emissions and runs the industrial carbon cycle backwards — taking CO2 from the atmosphere and ocean, turning it into coal and oil, and burying it in the ground. The triple bottom line of this new economy is antifragility, regeneration, and resilience.

Help me get my blog posted every week. All Patreon donations and Blogger subscriptions are needed and welcomed. You are how we make this happen. Your contributions are being made to Global Village Institute, a tax-deductible 501(c)(3) charity. PowerUp! donors on Patreon get an autographed book off each first press run. Please help if you can.

#RestorationGeneration

“There are the good tipping points, the tipping points in public consciousness when it comes to addressing this crisis, and I think we are very close to that.”

 — Climate Scientist Michael Mann, January 13, 2021.

The Great Changeby Albert Bates



16 Comments on "The Great Pause Week 61: Swallow the Doctor"

  1. Duncan Idaho on Sun, 16th May 2021 5:04 pm 

    Hint:
    7.7 billion people, massively overpopulating a planet with a collapsing ecosystem is probably a predicament, rather than a problem.

  2. Dooma on Mon, 17th May 2021 6:34 pm 

    The future: a case study.

    When European settlers arrived in Australia, they went on a mission to clear as many trees as possible and create pasture. The Kangaroo population was totally stoked with this outcome, as they had an immense amount of new feed. Their population exploded.

    A few years later, as cycles go in Australia, there was a long drought. A great deal of the Roos died a slow, painful death of starvation.

    We are just another animal nearing the end of a boom.

  3. makati1 on Mon, 17th May 2021 8:41 pm 

    Duncan, the earth is not over inhabited by humans. The food waste from the US alone would feed all 100,000,000+ Filipinos every year. Look at bloated Amerikans and see the problem.

    It is the corporate farms that are killing the planet and us. Capitalist greed and bloated governments filled with millions of drones who produce nothing. It is the ‘for profit’ junk pushed unto the people as “necessities” that is killing the planet. Look around your house and see how much “stuff” you have that is not a necessity. Tons, I bet, and most from Asia.

    Western greed and waste is killing the planet, not the humans. It can easily carry billions more if all were equal. Not in poverty but in comfortable style like, say, the average Chinese or Russian. Billionaires are the first who should be eliminated.

    Climates change all the time. This time it is being blown all out of proportion, like the covid flu, for the ‘Great Reset’ bullshit pushed by the megalomaniac billionaires for more power and $$$. When the dust settles, the total world deaths from everything will be no different than any other year. 60,000,000 total last year. 3,000,000 in the US. 700,000 in the Philippines. Wait and see.

    BTW: Annual deaths in the Philippines is 7.43 per 1000 vs 8.78 per 1000 in the US. We obviously have better life style. ^_^

  4. Biden’s hairplug on Mon, 17th May 2021 11:18 pm 

    “Annual deaths in the Philippines is 7.43 per 1000 vs 8.78 per 1000 in the US. We obviously have better life style. ^_^”

    Life expectancy:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy

    Japan…………84.3
    Switzerland….83.4
    USA……………78.5
    Philippines…..70.4

    Not impressed with the Philippines.

    Makati and data, match made in hell.

  5. Biden’s hairplug on Mon, 17th May 2021 11:32 pm 

    This could be the final Covid breakthrough:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9589611/Queensland-researchers-huge-Covid-19-breakthrough-way-kill-99-9-virus.html

    “Next best thing to a cure: Queensland researchers in huge Covid-19 breakthrough as they find a way to kill 99.9% of the virus in people’s lungs“

    Note, this is not a vaccine but a way to get a covid patient out of hospital fast, vertically. Great development!

  6. makati1 on Tue, 18th May 2021 1:33 am 

    Bidens, wait until this flu bullshit is over and see how much the life expectancy in the US has fallen. Meanwhile, here it is still increasing.

    I prefer 70 years of clean air, water, fresh non-GMO food, and freedom, to the dying US where murders, drugs, and fat people waddling around Walmart are common. Not to mention that it is now an obvious police state run by the oligarchs like Gates, Bezos, Soros, etc.

    Not to mention, that I can still live comfortably on half of my SS and pocket the other half and the other income streams. Also, I will be 77 this year and in good health, looking forward to at least 90+. ^_^

  7. makati1 on Tue, 18th May 2021 1:43 am 

    BTW: You have not proven your assertion that living in any of those “longer life” countries is better than living in the Ps countryside. Quality of life is better than length. Especially if you have to live the last decade or so in a home for old folks, like most do in the US because their families are too bu$y to take care of them, unlike here. No nursing homes. Our neighbor here lived to be 72 and was still living on his own and taking care of himself, and two dogs, when he passed with a heart attack.

  8. Fact Checker on Tue, 18th May 2021 6:35 am 

    Hi Duncan,

    You’re right. To further emphasize your point, the global human population is now just under 7.9 billion. The global population will hit 8 billion early next year.

  9. Anonymouse on Tue, 18th May 2021 2:53 pm 

    mak, Bidens Buttplug, aka, Cloggshitter, is mentally unstable, or in his specific case, delusional. If that retard wants to drop his pants so Bill Gates and friends can pump even MORE of their toxic, not-a-vaccine into his worthless ass, I say let em. Hell he can go back for 2nds, 3rds, fourths for all I care. If a blood clot doesnt (finally) shut him up for good, then perhaps some other undocumented effects of that toxic shit he seems so eager to get ‘jabbed’ with will do the job.

    He knows as much about medicine as he does science, technology and engineering. That is to say, none.

    Hes so fucking dumb I have no idea how he is even capable of breathing unassisted, let alone operate something as ‘complicated’ as the internet.

  10. makati1 on Tue, 18th May 2021 4:34 pm 

    Anon, your analysis of Cloggie is spot on. If he actually lives where he claims, he should be more concerned about the war the US is trying to start in the EU, not fairy tales about renewables, which will NEVER scale up to practicality.

    If the US keeps pushing Russia, the shit is going to hit the fan there. But then, that part of the world seems to like war or NATO would have been gone a long time ago. Better there than in Asia.

  11. makati1 on Tue, 18th May 2021 4:47 pm 

    Fact, you need to do the math. It MAY hit 8B in 2023, but not in 2022. Growth is slowing down and has been less than 1.1% recently, but even 9B is no big deal after the West is brought down by the Reset. There will be more of everything for the other 7B. If Billy Gate’s gene editing jabs work, the West will see many more deaths than usual in the next few years. That is why the pressure is on in Amerika and other US ass kissers, like the UK, Australia, etc. Wait and see.

    BTW: The Philippines is using real vaccines from China and Russia and not from the genetic testing labs of the US. And, less than 5% have been jabbed here. They will never get to a majority. That is a good thing. The flu is about over. Only the scare tactics continue.

  12. Biden’s hairplug on Tue, 18th May 2021 5:39 pm 

    “If he actually lives where he claims, he should be more concerned about the war the US is trying to start in the EU“

    America and Biden are too expended for that:

    https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/554163-biden-waiving-sanctions-for-nord-stream-2-pipeline-firm-report

    “Biden waiving sanctions for Nord Stream 2 pipeline firm: report“

    Biden knows his club is too weak for a showdown with Europe. North Stream 2 is going to be completed and all the previous noises to the contrary by both Trump and sleepy joe were just bluster of a dying empire.

    Sorry, wrong again.

  13. Biden’s hairplug on Tue, 18th May 2021 5:52 pm 

    “Republicans slam Biden administration on report of Nord Stream sanctions waivers“

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/republicans-slam-biden-administration-report-nord-stream-sanctions-waivers-2021-05-18/

    LOL

    What war, makati?

    Only in your deluded fantasy.

    ROFL

  14. makati1 on Tue, 18th May 2021 6:10 pm 

    Biden’s/Cloggie, I’m not talking about the pipeline. I am talking about Ukraine and the other places, like Poland, who want war. Stop wasting your time on techie fairy tales and get with the real world. Both world wars were started by small things that were the excuse for war. Something the US needs badly. Denial will not change anything.

    I doubt that you are even out of high school. Probably living in your Mom’s basement, if they have basements in Cloggieland. LOL

  15. makati1 on Tue, 18th May 2021 6:12 pm 

    BTW: Maybe you are unaware that there are several wars going on presently. Ukraine/Russia, Israel/Iran, and the US/China.
    The first two are getting hotter. The last is still cold, for now.

  16. Biden's hairplug on Wed, 19th May 2021 3:05 am 

    Australians get it:

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/

    US thinks it’s relevant in Gaza. It isn’t

    Iran and Turkey have replaced the Arab world as Palestinians’ most important allies; Washington has less leverage than ever.

    Exactly my analysis, Turkey and Iran are replacing the US as the new overlords in the Middle East:

    https://parisberlinmoscow.wordpress.com/2021/05/15/the-western-withdrawal-from-afghanistan-and-its-implications/

    “The Western Withdrawal from Afghanistan and its Implications”

    Israelis are well advised to start looking for a new homeland. They still have a powerful bargaining chip, namely these 150 or Jericho nuclear missiles. Will be good enough for them to force Europe to bulldozer a new piece of land for them in Upstate New York and New York City itself, after the breakup of the US.

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