We haven’t reached peak oil consumption globally, also known as peak demand. We are likely to reach it globally by 2050, but it’s unlikely to occur before 2030 at the very earliest. There are six major factors which make defining exactly when it will occur very difficult. I haven’t seen any modelled analysis (including my own projection related to electric cars) which includes all six.
When you see yet another prediction of peak demand or peak oil, use this as a handy cheat sheet to see how much weight to put upon the analysis.
Peak Demand is Different than Peak Oil
It’s important to separate the meaning of peak demand from the previously understood meaning of peak oil. That term, commonly referred to as Hubbert’s Peak, suggested that economically extractable oil reserves were finite and that the peak of what was globally economic to extract was going to occur. Hubbert himself suggested the 1980s would see this, while others suggested every year since. They were all, similar to Malthus, wrong.
The peak production theory assumed that innovations in extraction and processing were stagnant, when in fact multiple innovations — not least of which hydraulic fracturing or fracking — have increased our ability to produce oil. Now bounds on production are economic choices, not technical or resource limitations. This is important to understand because it has implications for demand that I’ll get into shortly.
There are multiple factors to consider when looking at the question of peak demand. The short list are electrification of transportation of various types, economic growth in areas currently with fewer cars, renewables plus grid innovation, urbanization, other uses for oil, and induced demand.
Electrification of Transportation: Hastening
The first is relatively obvious. Electric cars don’t use oil except as a lubricant in some areas, in their tires, and in rubber hoses and reservoirs for brake fluids and the like, trivial compared to burning gallons of it to move around. The more electric cars there are, all else being equal, the less oil will be burned.
While almost every major automotive manufacturer has realized that this is the global direction and that they have to get behind it, electric cars are still well under 1% of all cars on the roads today. And as the average car is driven for well over a decade, replacing the existing rolling stock is going to take decades.
Also, electric cars are well ahead of other forms of transportation in the curve to replacement. Buses are much closer to the beginning of the curve. Trucks are just starting along it. Electric planes have just been commercialized and it will be a decade before electric powertrains on interurban commuter jets will be seen. Electric freight trains already exist in many places for the simple reason that freight trains have been diesel electric hybrids for decades, so putting in links to overhead wires in key routes has been a trivial extension.
More Cars: Deferring
Globally, cars have been increasing in numbers by about 4% a year. This is a huge factor. There are around a billion cars on the road right now. The number varies substantially from analyst to analyst, but the billion number is sufficient for this answer. The 4% increase means that next year another 40 million net vehicles will be on the road after new car sales and old cars being junked. According to the IEA, there were only about 2 million electric cars on the roads globally in 2016. The disparity between net new cars vs electric cars means that for at least the next couple of decades, there will be a lot of internal combustion cars on the roads.
Renewables + Grid Innovation: Hastening
A quite absurd amount of diesel and bunker oil is used to generate electricity in various parts of the world. In archipelagos, such as Indonesia with 6,000 inhabited islands, a large number of the islands depend on diesel- or oil-burning generators of electricity.
With the plummeting cost of microgrid technology — solar (especially) and storage — more and more of these islands, remote northern islands, and big chunks of Africa are able to move away from fossil fuel generation and get stable power. And with the expansion of stable grid technologies and management, many formerly isolated areas are now tied into lower petroleum sources of electricity. Finally, high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission is tying more islands to more sources of non-petroleum and non-fossil fuel electricity. But these are capital-intensive shifts in areas of the world which don’t have a lot of capital. They are proceeding in fits and starts, but it’s slow progress.
Urbanization: Hastening
Globally, the world has been urbanizing for a couple of centuries. That’s only accelerating now, with cities providing the vast majority of opportunities and amenities of all types. The more developed the country, the larger the percentage of its population live in cities.
And cities provide a lot of opportunities for people to live without cars, something increasingly understood to be a societal positive. Urban transit is the obvious factor, but so are walkability and bikability. Carshare programs, taxis, and new entrants such as Uber and Lyft also reduce demand for personal automobiles and put more miles on the cars that do get sold, but fewer per capita. People not having cars but taking transit, walking, or biking reduce petroleum use. Urban areas also tend to have strict regulations which prevent using oil furnaces for heating, so as urban populations grow, that use of oil diminishes.
Other Uses: Deferring
While the dominant uses of oil are for transportation, generation, and heat, it’s also used as a feedstock for any number of different things. Every day, we eat oil products, eat food grown with oil-based fertilizers, wrap things in oil-based plastic wraps, and put things in plastic tubs. These uses are only increasing. The good news is that these types of oil use don’t lead to putting a lot of CO2 into the air. The bad news is litter and oceanic plastic waste.
Induced Demand: Deferring
In behavioural economics, induced demand is the result of oversupply of a commodity. Since it’s cheap and convenient to use, it is used. As oil’s peak demand approaches, its price per barrel will fall. In the absence of global governance that aims to avoid this, more companies will use oil because it will be cheaper than alternatives.
Davy on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 12:16 pm
Widdle, I moderated you and Mad Kat. Your message has been neutered. This is why you stalk and prick me constantly. I kicked your widdle ass and you are furious about it. Dumbass go walk the dog, big boys hang out here. LMFAO
GregT on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 12:26 pm
“Widdle, I moderated you and Mad Kat. Your message has been neutered. This is why you stalk and prick me constantly. I kicked your widdle ass and you are furious about it. Dumbass go walk the dog, big boys hang out here. LMFAO”
More delusions on your part. You haven’t moderated anybody. You haven’t neutered anybody. You haven’t kicked anybody’s asses, and I find your delusions to be quite amusing. (In a sad kind of way.)
Big boy. 🙂
Don on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 12:27 pm
I do not believe electrical vehicles will significantly impact peak oil demand.
Electric vehicle systems simply convert stored energy (oil, gas, nuclear, biofuels) into kinetic energy for transport.
The price of oil depends on how much oil can be stored for future use.
The question then becomes what energy storage alternatives are there to fossil fuels and how much of it can be stored.
Batteries and Fuel cells can only store at best a few days of daily use.
A possible solution may be in “Cyborg Bacteria” a form of artificial photosynthesis which may be capable of cheap high volume creation of acetic acid from Carbon dioxide.
See
https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/pressroom/newsreleases/2017/august/cyborg-bacteria-outperform-plants-when-turning-sunlight-into-useful-compounds-video.html
Davy on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 1:04 pm
well widdle, you are struggling with a message. In fact there is no message only stalking and pricking of the Americans you don’t like and supporting the anti-Americans you like, primarily mad kat. You are just a agenda lobbyist or IOW an agenda whore. Say something widdle. Show you have brain cells.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 1:21 pm
Hey Cloggie and Nationalist and Theo
Steve Bannon calls on Jewish Zionists to join his war on Republican establishment
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/steve-bannon-jewish-zionists-israel-republican-party-mitch-mcconnell-paul-ryan-donald-trump-a8052776.html
Bannon gets down on his knees to beg the Zionist lobby…HAHAHAHH FAIL…..
MASTERMIND on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 1:43 pm
Hey Cloggie and Nationalist and Theo
Steve Bannon calls on Jewish Zionists to join his war on Republican establishment
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/steve-bannon-jewish-zionists-israel-republican-party-mitch-mcconnell-paul-ryan-donald-trump-a8052776.html
Bannon the leader of the alt right gets down on his knees to beg the Zionist jews for help….. HAHAHAHH White Nationalism FAIL…..
GregT on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 1:54 pm
“well widdle, you are struggling with a message. In fact there is no message only stalking and pricking of the Americans you don’t like and supporting the anti-Americans you like, primarily mad kat. You are just a agenda lobbyist or IOW an agenda whore.
More delusions.
“Say something widdle. Show you have brain cells.”
Get help.
Cloggie on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 2:13 pm
“Bannon the leader of the alt right gets down on his knees to beg the Zionist jews for help….. HAHAHAHH White Nationalism FAIL…..”
Bannon is not a white nationalist and not an altright leader.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 3:30 pm
Cloggie..
Bannon said “Breitbart is the platform to the alt right” His own words….Stop denying it…You chump
Apneaman on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 3:30 pm
widdle Davy, you remind me of my dog. Every time, without fail, I throw the ball he runs after it. He don’t know why he does what he does, like you, he is possesed or something.
Here, let me throw this Anti-A ball for you – go get widdle davy.
One in five American households have ‘zero or negative’ wealth
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/one-in-five-american-households-have-zero-or-negative-wealth-2017-11-11
good boy widdle davy good boy.
Cloggie on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 3:36 pm
http://www.newsweek.com/breitbart-claims-it-not-alt-right-and-neither-steve-bannon-652518
Dear god, if you do exist, why do you send me antifa clowns like “mastermind” on my way?
MASTERMIND on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 3:54 pm
Cloggie:
You article says breitbart “Claims”…They can claim all they want but the truth is its the most hate filled website there is..And Bannon said it before….Face it your hero sucks Jewish Cocks…And swallows…Like I will make your daughters post collapse.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 3:56 pm
CLogg
Studies show only an increase in economic growth and prosperity can lead to open and tolerant societies..Set backs in economic growth can lead to a rise in extremist and nationalistic political leaders.
-German Military (leaked) Peak Oil study 2010
https://www.permaculture.org.au/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf
Cloggie on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 3:59 pm
What is the difference between prince Charles and many of the “Great Thinkers” on this board, like “mastermind”, boat, davy, supertard, etc?
Charles has a functioning brain.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5073607/Letter-penned-Prince-Charles-sparks-controversy.html
“He also writes his hopes that the ‘American Jewish lobby’ will be stood up to” (1986)
The DailyMail publishes this one day after Charles for the first time stepped in for his mother, which was seen as a sign that Charles could become king soon.
That’s now unlikely, this is after all (((The West))).
Cloggie on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 4:11 pm
“mastermind” outs himself as a rapist. Why am I not surprised. Types like him raped hundreds of thousands of women in Europe. Revenge is underway, after Trump, when the global revenge will begin against the US deep state and its backers like “mastermind”.
Here antifa scum like “mastermind” receiving a thorough beating near Berkely. Beer & popcorn.
A lttle political education for our forum dummy who keeps on linking to this obsolete 2010 German army peakoil study:
Alright = white ethno-state
Bannon = civic nationalism = closed border without segregation
Cloggie on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 4:12 pm
Link:
https://youtu.be/c8GVtXfATtI
Cloggie on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 4:52 pm
The New Britain:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5071619/Labour-faces-new-anti-Semitism-storm.html
The Khan’s can say what they want.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 7:58 pm
Cloggie
There will be no massive race war…You have read to many turner diaries books..Once the oil shortages hit and the massive price spike occurs nobody is going to give a damn about spreading white nationalism anywhere. Because they will realize they and everyone else have no future…Of any kind…You dimwit..And the daily mail has been sued many times and lost for writing fake news stories…Only total imbeciles read them…You know this as well..
RICHARD NEHRING on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 6:12 pm
HOW WILL SOLAR PROVIDE ENERGY FOR NORTHERN ISLANDS WHEN THE SUN MAY NOT SHINE AT ALL ON THESE ISLANDS FOR 2 TO 4 MONTHS A YEAR AND IS AT A LOW ANGLE TO A FEW MORE MONTHS EACH YEAR? BATTERIES FOR OVERNIGHT USE ARE MUCH MORE FEASIBLE THAN BATTERIES THAT PROVIDE ENERGY CONTINUSLY FOR SEVERAL MONTHS.