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6 Factors Will Hasten Or Defer Peak Oil Demand

6 Factors Will Hasten Or Defer Peak Oil Demand thumbnail


We haven’t reached peak oil consumption globally, also known as peak demand. We are likely to reach it globally by 2050, but it’s unlikely to occur before 2030 at the very earliest. There are six major factors which make defining exactly when it will occur very difficult. I haven’t seen any modelled analysis (including my own projection related to electric cars) which includes all six.

When you see yet another prediction of peak demand or peak oil, use this as a handy cheat sheet to see how much weight to put upon the analysis.

Peak Demand is Different than Peak Oil

It’s important to separate the meaning of peak demand from the previously understood meaning of peak oil. That term, commonly referred to as Hubbert’s Peak, suggested that economically extractable oil reserves were finite and that the peak of what was globally economic to extract was going to occur. Hubbert himself suggested the 1980s would see this, while others suggested every year since. They were all, similar to Malthus, wrong.

The peak production theory assumed that innovations in extraction and processing were stagnant, when in fact multiple innovations — not least of which hydraulic fracturing or fracking — have increased our ability to produce oil. Now bounds on production are economic choices, not technical or resource limitations. This is important to understand because it has implications for demand that I’ll get into shortly.

There are multiple factors to consider when looking at the question of peak demand. The short list are electrification of transportation of various types, economic growth in areas currently with fewer cars, renewables plus grid innovation, urbanization, other uses for oil, and induced demand.

Electrification of Transportation: Hastening

The first is relatively obvious. Electric cars don’t use oil except as a lubricant in some areas, in their tires, and in rubber hoses and reservoirs for brake fluids and the like, trivial compared to burning gallons of it to move around. The more electric cars there are, all else being equal, the less oil will be burned.

While almost every major automotive manufacturer has realized that this is the global direction and that they have to get behind it, electric cars are still well under 1% of all cars on the roads today. And as the average car is driven for well over a decade, replacing the existing rolling stock is going to take decades.

Also, electric cars are well ahead of other forms of transportation in the curve to replacement. Buses are much closer to the beginning of the curve. Trucks are just starting along it. Electric planes have just been commercialized and it will be a decade before electric powertrains on interurban commuter jets will be seen. Electric freight trains already exist in many places for the simple reason that freight trains have been diesel electric hybrids for decades, so putting in links to overhead wires in key routes has been a trivial extension.

More Cars: Deferring

Globally, cars have been increasing in numbers by about 4% a year. This is a huge factor. There are around a billion cars on the road right now. The number varies substantially from analyst to analyst, but the billion number is sufficient for this answer. The 4% increase means that next year another 40 million net vehicles will be on the road after new car sales and old cars being junked. According to the IEA, there were only about 2 million electric cars on the roads globally in 2016. The disparity between net new cars vs electric cars means that for at least the next couple of decades, there will be a lot of internal combustion cars on the roads.

Renewables + Grid Innovation: Hastening

A quite absurd amount of diesel and bunker oil is used to generate electricity in various parts of the world. In archipelagos, such as Indonesia with 6,000 inhabited islands, a large number of the islands depend on diesel- or oil-burning generators of electricity.

With the plummeting cost of microgrid technology — solar (especially) and storage — more and more of these islands, remote northern islands, and big chunks of Africa are able to move away from fossil fuel generation and get stable power. And with the expansion of stable grid technologies and management, many formerly isolated areas are now tied into lower petroleum sources of electricity. Finally, high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission is tying more islands to more sources of non-petroleum and non-fossil fuel electricity. But these are capital-intensive shifts in areas of the world which don’t have a lot of capital. They are proceeding in fits and starts, but it’s slow progress.

Urbanization: Hastening

Globally, the world has been urbanizing for a couple of centuries. That’s only accelerating now, with cities providing the vast majority of opportunities and amenities of all types. The more developed the country, the larger the percentage of its population live in cities.

And cities provide a lot of opportunities for people to live without cars, something increasingly understood to be a societal positive. Urban transit is the obvious factor, but so are walkability and bikability. Carshare programs, taxis, and new entrants such as Uber and Lyft also reduce demand for personal automobiles and put more miles on the cars that do get sold, but fewer per capita. People not having cars but taking transit, walking, or biking reduce petroleum use. Urban areas also tend to have strict regulations which prevent using oil furnaces for heating, so as urban populations grow, that use of oil diminishes.

Other Uses: Deferring

While the dominant uses of oil are for transportation, generation, and heat, it’s also used as a feedstock for any number of different things. Every day, we eat oil products, eat food grown with oil-based fertilizers, wrap things in oil-based plastic wraps, and put things in plastic tubs. These uses are only increasing. The good news is that these types of oil use don’t lead to putting a lot of CO2 into the air. The bad news is litter and oceanic plastic waste.

Induced Demand: Deferring

In behavioural economics, induced demand is the result of oversupply of a commodity. Since it’s cheap and convenient to use, it is used. As oil’s peak demand approaches, its price per barrel will fall. In the absence of global governance that aims to avoid this, more companies will use oil because it will be cheaper than alternatives.


69 Comments on "6 Factors Will Hasten Or Defer Peak Oil Demand"

  1. MASTERMIND on Sat, 11th Nov 2017 4:35 pm 

    Another techie fake news site…This is why you cant argue against renwables or EV’s or hyperloops etc online. Because the tech industry rules the internet and their are so many fake news techie sites that dumbshit believe everything they say..

  2. Mark Ziegler on Sat, 11th Nov 2017 4:48 pm 

    Let us not forget the number 1 change to enable peak oil to occur immediately.
    A complete comprehensive change over to a rail transit system. Presenting the most efficient non fossil feul based transport forced upon everyone. With new opportunities for investors and a new purpose for the automotive industry.

  3. Davy on Sat, 11th Nov 2017 4:50 pm 

    Optimism parading as expertise and falling flat on their face because of it. These issues have sub plots of negative and positive yet it is the converging of so many negatives that outweighs the positives in my opinion. Much of these positive issues are yet to be realized but the negatives are alive and well. I am less doomer today than I used to be but just a little. We discuss these same issues over and over so it is not like there is anything new in this article to make for an exciting debate.

  4. Ghung on Sat, 11th Nov 2017 5:25 pm 

    Petroleum provides over 25 quadrillion Btu of energy to the transportation sector in the US. Replacing much of that is going to take a lot of electrons from somewhere.

  5. makati1 on Sat, 11th Nov 2017 6:43 pm 

    Ghung, you are correct. Alts will never be more than a few percent of the energy needs. But, they could be 100% someday if the grid goes down permanently. ‘Stand alone’ solar panel systems will buy a decade or so for the individuals who invest in them now, until the only true “renewable” (turning sunlight into plants and maybe animals for food and work) is all we have. 1700s style.

  6. makati1 on Sat, 11th Nov 2017 7:46 pm 

    CIA and “Fake Media”

    “In a bitter irony, the media coverup of the CIA’s covert support to Al Qaeda and the ISIS is instrumented by the CIA which also oversees the mainstream media.”

    Americans are fed bullshit and told it is chocolate fudge. They believe it all and gobble it down, maybe because it makes them feel good and “special”? Deluded Fools isw what they are!

  7. Anonymouse1 on Sat, 11th Nov 2017 8:17 pm 

    How funny is this bullstein? The transportation system was far more electrified 100 years ago, than it is today.

    But that is because certain ‘people’, (corps are people remember amerikans?), back in the day, wanted electric transport be largely relegated to the margins.

    And that is exactly what happened.

    Now retards of all stripes, bloggers, mass propaganda, and random retards and low-rent shills, ie cloggen-kike, KenzBot etc, jizz in there drawers everytime they see the word ‘robo-car’ or variations of, in print. Of course, EV advocates are often mis-identified as being electric advocates. What they really are, is pro-CAR advocates. They really don’t care how the car is powered, only that the car as a concept, continues to reign supreme.

    The ‘electric’ part of electric car, is far less important than the ‘Car’ part of the equation. The ‘E’ at least, helps make some people feel warm and fuzzy inside by not making them think about all the other problems cars create, that a hypothetical all-EV world, would still be burdened with.

  8. makati1 on Sat, 11th Nov 2017 8:23 pm 

    Anon, those who know history know that the big oil and car companies bought up the electric means of transportation and trashed them so they could sell cars, gas, tires, etc. But few Americans even remember what happened yesterday. ‘History’ is a swear word in most neighborhood there.

  9. Go Speed Racer on Sat, 11th Nov 2017 9:04 pm 

    going out of business soon.

    Check it out here:

    Unless the gubbamint steps in to prop up
    the dead cadaver, like “Weekend at Bernies”.

    Electric Cars aren’t economical, but they
    are preferred by people to prove that they
    are “greener than thou”.

    I just light a couch on fire in my backyard,
    then they can go ahead and feel greener
    than me.

  10. MASTERMIND on Sat, 11th Nov 2017 10:52 pm 


    Here we go again with your nonsense conspiracies about “Who killed the electric car”…The reason electric cars can’t compete is because a lithium battery for example has 1/10 the energy density of fossil fuels. So you have to install a 1200 lb battery into each car…And in ICE cars you buy your energy source fossil fuels separately. So the electric cars with that gigantic battery make them uneconomical compared with ICE cars.

  11. makati1 on Sat, 11th Nov 2017 11:33 pm 

    MM, bullshit! You are proof that too much education warps and constricts the mind’s ability to actually think.

    Had the electric vehicles NOT been junked by Ford, Standard Oil, Firestone, etc. they would have had better batteries 50 years ago. Maybe even something better than lithium. You are blind to history. Tech is going to be dead when the SHTF and YOU are going to be on the street trying to sell apples. lol

  12. MASTERMIND on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 12:28 am 


    You are energy illiterate and peak oil ignorant. Tesla cars are by far the most advanced electric cars ever made and they all require a 1200 lb battery..That is why they are uneconomical. So obviously the same issues were around in the past. That is why they never caught on. And they are less reliable then ICE cars. Geez you know very little…Go back to with your lunatic paranoia about Standard oil and Ford conspiring to kill something that could never even challenge them.

  13. MASTERMIND on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 12:30 am 

    Next Madkat is going to be complaining about the US government spraying chemtrails…I know its coming…

  14. Cloggie on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 1:39 am 

    going out of business soon.”

    One competitor less…

    What’s next? Trump-o-matic powered by coal and steam?

  15. makati1 on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 1:42 am 

    I don’t care if they are spraying poison. I don’t live there anymore.

    Tesla is a sick joke on techie dreamers.

    “Tesla Model 3 had ‘poor overall initial quality,’ says analyst who inspected two and went for a drive”

    “Tesla’s junk bonds are trading under water — and it could spell trouble for Elon Musk ”

    There is no future for Tesla.

  16. Cloggie on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 2:15 am 

    With all due respect for the pioneerwork of Tesla, you cannot expect a batteryproducer to beat top-notch global car companies and produce better cars.

  17. Davy on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 5:03 am 

    “Had the electric vehicles NOT been junked by Ford, Standard Oil, Firestone, etc. they would have had better batteries 50 years ago. Maybe even something better than lithium. You are blind to history.

    Mad Kat, quit showing your lack of intelligence. NASA and the military have had batteries better figured out for years. The mass production of batteries by the Auto industry may have brought the price down from economies of scale but the innovation has been already been done by many others. Batteries are not revolutionary. They have been evolutionary along with tech and material break through.

  18. Davy on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 5:07 am 

    “With all due respect for the pioneerwork of Tesla, you cannot expect a batteryproducer to beat top-notch global car companies and produce better cars.”

    Japanese build better cars than Europeans from my experience. I would rather have an American pickup truck than either.

  19. Davy on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 6:24 am 

    perpetuate the existing conditions.”

    “Deutsche: Every Time We Asked “How Much Lower Could Vol Go” Things Would Become Unpleasant”

    “According to Deutsche Bank’s Aleksandar Kocic, we live in a reflexive world, one where “the Fed knows that the market knows and the market knows that the Fed knows that the market knows, so everyone knows, but pretends that nobody knows and the game goes on.” That pretty much covers much of modern market analysis which, like some mutant version of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, implies that it is impossible to know the value of assets without also taking into account what the Fed thinks about said value, and what it will do in response to the valuation manifesting itself in the form or asset prices. There’s more to it. Following up on last week’s note, in which the DB derivatives analyst looked at the market’s current “metastable” state from the perspective of Minsky dynamics – a series of constantly shifting disequilibria which vary in leverage and volatility (the lower the vol, the higher the leverage until the system tips over and is forced to reset)… … to analyze what may be the exogenous “circuit breaker” that finally snaps the fake calm of the past 9 years of central planning, overnight Kocic put it all together in his latest report which converges on most of the tropes he has been discussing over the past year, including the build up of negative convexity by way of continued state of exception, misallocation of capital, buildup of tail risk, and metastablity, and explains why markets are caught in a “Sachzwang – a factual constraint residing in the nature of things that leaves no choice but to perpetuate the existing conditions.”

    Unlike the chess “zugzwang”, in which the player is forced to make a move, making their position significantly weaker, and would thus rather not move at all, in the Kocic world, the equilibrium market state is a suffocating paralysis under which the only option is making no move at all, thereby perpetuating the paralysis. The final outcome – as we are confident the metaphysical analyst will eventually unveil – is Cosmic Death… a state of 0 Kelvin in which central planning crushes one’s will to exist, let alone trade, or some other similarly dramatic philosophical narrative. Markets are caught in a Sachzwang – a factual constraint residing in the nature of things that leaves no choice but to perpetuate the existing conditions. Short-dated volatility continues to probe new lows in tune with other measures of risk premia. There has been hardly any departure from the trend. As gamma collapsed, vol sellers have been moving along the surface and ironing out the calendars. This is causing collapse of horizons and general paralysis which further perpetuates status quo. Time is gradually coming to a stop – this is the real collateral damage of the existing dynamics.

  20. Davy on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 6:25 am 

    I posted this financial article because let’s face it much of what we talk about here must be paid for and is price sensitive. Renewables, oil markets, and social development are all economically dependent. In this case we need to be looking to what underlies our economy to have an idea of where our future lies with these very important aspects of our modern civilization. This is a very good article showing the “Sachzwang” present in our civilization. This is really on all fronts except for those areas of moral hazard where profits and exploitation are being undertaken by those who are disregarding the rule of law. The authorities are part of it and in some cases promoting it. The terrorist and protestors are bucking this managed social state also. Those in the middle are trapped but really all are trapped because this is an end game.

    We are increasingly seeing a civilization brittle to change as all climax ecosystem become eventually. Our economy is the best indicator of this paralysis. Nature is cyclical and planetary micro ecosystems must go cyclical with the planetary one eventually. Those exceptionalist who think our civilization and our intelligence are not part of that process will be educated eventually to natural law. Our modern civilization is linear. Nature is cyclical where by the waste and production of one species is the support of another. Climax ecosystems ALWAYS break. If we look at what is going on in the world outside our micro linear ecosystem we see a breaking up of a planetary ecosystem with the advent of the Anthropocene.

    Succession is ahead but for us mortals who live short lives and have even shorter attention spans the big question is how long. I am here every day to try to determine this. It is a fascination more than a need for survival. Yea, I am fighting extremist but that is just a distraction. My fight against extremist is a representation of a greater global phenomenon of human strife. We are tearing ourselves apart with the blame and complain game. Extremist are the invasive species of the human world. They are destructive to wisdom and intellectual advancement. Yet, with all ecosystems it is these disrupters that cause succession too. This means they are the chaos of our truth so they have a place in this process.

    We are now a late term civilization. The techno optimist like to point to all the innovation and technical advancements that are part of a transition and the effort to substitute our way through limits and diminishing returns but this is just an emotional condition. Science is telling us we are at real limits. Science is showing us we are breaking down a planetary ecosystem but science denying scientist are pointing to their discoveries and projects that will maintain the unmaintainable. They want more affluence when it is affluence that is killing us. More consumptions and growth is the problem and the trap. Science denying scientist solutions are based on this status quo of a narrative of denial. Their solutions are part of the trap and the denial. We collapse with it and we collapse without it.

    The main point then becomes how long can we maintain this status quo. The economy is probably the most important determinant of survival now. The techno optimistic extenders of the status quo are completely dependent on a very unstable global system. Take the renewable revolution with its huge costs as a great example. How long can this dysfunctional system of competitive cooperation driven by a hybrid of market based capitalism and varying degrees of liberal democracy last? There is no way to know that. Many of our other problems are converging with feedback loops that have some kind of timeline. Our civilization does and does not. We can see the limits but then there is human nature that is rational and not rational. Emotions are not quantifiable without acknowledging turbulence and the randomness of chaos. We are at a climax state and it is near thresholds of reactivity. Our system is ready to break to a new state of equilibrium. Being at climax it can go only one way. This means all of us too because we are all interconnected today. It is possible we will bifurcate as we break apart into Byzantium networks and Balkanized nation states but this is an unknown. At this point we are paralyzed in a house of cards with a Ponzi economy. The end is near but when and where?

  21. Shortend on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 6:57 am 

    6 Factors..War, Financial Crisis, Crop Failure, Depletion, AGW, Divine Intervention

  22. GregT on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 11:36 am 

    “I posted this financial article because….”

    Zerohedge is not a financial website. It is a self admitted source of disinformation.

  23. Davy on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 11:54 am 

    widdle g, is Deutsche Bank’s Aleksandar Kocic not a financial person? If not then do you have anything to say on the subject because most of the time you don’t’ say anything you just stalk and prick without with substance. Like your buddy mad kat if something does not agree with your agenda it is considered disinformation. You are disinformation, widdle g. You are a human lie. I am beginning to think you are one of the most intellectually shallow commenters on this board but boy do you think you deserve respect don’t you. Just because you are a West coast Canadian doesn’t mean you are special and holier than thou. It means you have a very bad attitude.

    “It is a self-admitted source of disinformation.” LOL what a numb nut, how many times have I heard that. IMA, this wed site references ZH often. widdle, will you let them know too. ZH, is a news amalgamator so they reference multiple sites. Are all those sites disinformation too, widdle g?

  24. Mark David on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 12:23 pm 

    ” Electric cars don’t use oil, except for lubricate”
    Every Electric car requires tons of oil. In the transport and acquisition of the raw materials, the assembly process, in the car itself as plastics, paints, rubber etc.

  25. GregT on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 12:37 pm 

    Aleksandar Kocic did not write the article delusionalist. It was likely written by either Daniel Ivandjiiski or Tim Backshall. The third partner in the group, Colin Lokey, quit last year.
    In his own words, “What you are reading at Zero Hedge is nonsense,” he said. “And you shouldn’t support it. Two guys who live a lifestyle you only dream of are pretending to speak for you.”

  26. Sissyfuss on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 1:22 pm 

    As with most web sites GT, you have to sort through alot of coal to find the diamonds.

  27. Apneaman on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 1:31 pm 

    zerohedge is an aggravator site.

    A click bait carnival.

    All the widdle alt right retards go there to get their amygdalas rattled. Each fury & outrage inducing story is the equivalent of guzzling down 2 1/2 RedBulls.

    zerohege, it’s white boy anger with wings.

  28. Davy on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 2:02 pm 

    Sure gets you extremist upset. Must be something to it. Read the article again widdle and leave your prejudice behind. This article is about finance not deagal dot com and other nonsense you read. I think the problem is you and ape have little understanding of finance. When you think finance you think money printing bad, us fed bad, Chinese yuan good. Too bad becuase the article had some important point but apparently above your intelligence levels

  29. Davy on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 2:15 pm 

    BTW, widdle, never said kocic wrote the article. It references his comments. Do you have your supporting link for your Zero Hedge bashing quotation? You are getting sloppy like your buddy Mad Kat. Be sure to properly back up your quotations. People like you cannot be trusted for clarity.

  30. energy investor on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 3:09 pm 

    If the usable electric power in a Li-ion battery is only around 200 whrs/litre and the usable energy equivalent of petrol is 12,000whrs per litre, my calculator tells me that petrol has 60 times the real energy density of a Li-ion battery.

    I feel sad for Elon Musk and his genius. He was always going to burn out like a star in a distant galaxy.

    In my youth I came across a couple of geniuses like Musk and could usually channel their energies more productively and profitably. But I think Elon has personality flaws that prohibit help… even when help could save him.

    He simply takes flight into another dimension. Brilliant in one sense, thick in another.

  31. Go Speed Racer on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 4:55 pm 

    No problem Clogster,
    When Tesla goes out of business,
    it will be good for America.

    We can keep driving to work everyday,
    in rugged American pickup trucks:

    Lots of black smoke will make America Great Again.

  32. Go Speed Racer on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 4:57 pm 

    They burnt up so much garbage
    in New Delhi India, that United Airlines
    wont fly there anymore.
    The air is too dangerous for the pilots
    to fly safely. Could damage the equipment.
    Makes the stewardesses cough.

    Let’s ship lots and lots of garbage to
    India so they will set it on fire.
    That will make the pollution even thicker.

  33. Cloggie on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 5:30 pm 

    Japanese build better cars than Europeans from my experience. I would rather have an American pickup truck than either.

    In Europe the rule is that you can’t go to the opera in a pickup-truck, unless of course you have goats that fall for Puccini. For that reason you will have a hard-time finding a European pickup-truck.

    ISIS btw prefers Japanese pickup-trucks, or so it seems, but perhaps they rather wanted American pickups but the US government deemed it better no to give them those for PR-reasons:

  34. makati1 on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 5:55 pm 

    Hahahahaha! Thanks for the chuckle, Cloggie. Especially the goat thingy. I never considered why the US did send American made pickups to ISIS. Thanks for clarifying that subject.

  35. makati1 on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 7:13 pm 

    ” Warped Morality, Not “Western Values”

    It was only during the Cold War that the pathological selfishness, espoused by free market ideologues and serial killers became so closely associated with the American mindset. Furthermore, it was only after the fall of the Soviet Union and that such concepts were considered by so many in the western world to be completely infallible.

    Oddly, it was in the 1990s, as free market selfishness was being declared ‘the end of history’ that the kind of mass shootings that are now so prevalent began to occur. It was young people, high school students, whose minds had been crafted by a mass media extolling “the virtue selfishness” and the supposed irrationality of compassion and community, that began slaughtering their classmates.

    The radical free market ideology that emerged within the USA during the Cold War, and declared itself the final victor in 1991, contains within it the deranged, inhuman mindset of mass murderers. It proclaims that the poor deserve their condition, and the rich and powerful have their positions due to some kind of inherent superiority. It proclaims that efforts to aid those who are suffering are a waste of time.

    These are not “western values,” they are inhuman values. The fact that the western world has embraced them, and now screams them from the heavens, while inculcating them among the youth, should certainly be factored in when trying to explain the prevalence of tragic occurrences of mass murder in the United States.”

    More signs of the decline of America.

  36. makati1 on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 7:23 pm 

    The “Throwaway” society of America…

    Our veterans deserve the very best, and yet way too often they get the very worst. The Department of Veteran Affairs is a disaster, it takes forever to get claims processed, and VA facilities are often extremely dirty and poorly managed. Rates of unemployment and suicide are far higher for veterans than they are for the population as a whole, and yet the left is strongly backing the NFL players as they disrespect our veterans when they refuse to stand for the national anthem. There are more than 18 million veterans in the United States today, and more than 9 million of them (including my father) are over the age of 65. As a society, it is time for us to make it exceedingly clear that we are not going to put up with mistreatment of our veterans any longer.”

    US Military deaths since 1999 – 5,273
    Veteran’s suicides since 1999 – 128,480+

    “Every day, 22 veterans take their own lives. That’s a suicide every 65 minutes. As shocking as the number is, it may actually be higher.
    The figure, released by the Department of Veterans Affairs in February, is based on the agency’s own data and numbers reported by 21 states from 1999 through 2011. Those states represent about 40% of the U.S. population. The other states, including the two largest (California and Texas) and the fifth-largest (Illinois), did not make data available.”

    Use, abuse, and discard…THAT is America.

  37. makati1 on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 7:49 pm 

    America in free fall…

    “Only one-third of Super Hornets ready to ‘fight tonight’ as of October, admiral says”
    “Air Force secretary warns pilot shortage just got worse, people ‘burning out'”
    “Army lifts ban on waivers for recruits with history of some mental health issues”
    “Florida school selling bulletproof panels for students’ backpacks”
    “Chaos In Detroit: Undercover Cops Battle Each Other In Sting Operation Gone Wrong”
    “‘Dump Trump’ protest erupts ahead of Philippines summit”
    “Air Force general says China is advancing in space five times as quickly as the US”
    “Retrospect on the Moon-Trump Summit, South Korean Anti-Trump Protests”

    And on and on…

  38. MASTERMIND on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 8:59 pm 

    Madkat with his usual load of FAKE NEWS…So freaking dumb..Like I said before Madkat the collapse wont happen until the oil shortage comes..And even then it most likely will take a few years before the markets totally collapse..And then you president will put his big government boot up your ass..You will work from sunset to sunrise or you will starve.

  39. makati1 on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 9:50 pm 

    MM, some of those are from you own US MSM or didn’t you bother to check before you started spewing your usual shit? No “peer reviewed” rebuttals to any of those articles? Why? Maybe because they are true? Nah! The US is heaven on earth. Arrogant aren’t you?

    “A few years” or tomorrow? You have no ides. Delude yourself all you want. You have million of suckers also dreaming of impossibilities just like in 1929 a few days before the crash.

    Sunrise to sunset? You obviously don’t live in a tropical zone or have any idea how a farm runs. I don’t need to work at all. I don’t consider gardening, collecting the eggs, or moving the goats chain a few meters as “work”. There are no huge fields needing the plow. Permaculture is like hunter gatherers in one place.

    I actually worked, as in sweated, for many of my career years. Work is no stranger to me, and it is probably why I still have excellent health at 73. Besides, I am part of an extended family here as a business partner and friend. That makes about 16 young people on the farm to do the heavy work, not counting the caretaker and his family.

    Keep guessing, muddy. So far you are batting zero. LMAO.

  40. makati1 on Sun, 12th Nov 2017 10:41 pm 

    This one bares repeating…

    “WASHINGTON – People with a history of “self-mutilation,” bipolar disorder, depression and drug and alcohol abuse can now seek waivers to join the Army under an unannounced policy enacted in August, according to documents obtained by USA TODAY.”

    The US has to look under the barrel to find anyone able to serve. And they are the “most powerful military” on the planet? LMAO

  41. Antius on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 7:14 am 

    The issue of ‘Peak Demand’ is a red herring. Supply and demand will always balance. The only things that will force demand lower are higher prices or political interference, i.e. banning petrol powered cars.

  42. Cloggie on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 9:12 am 

    Remember this name: PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation in Defence)

    23 European nations have signed a defense pact today. Opted out: UK, Ireland, Denmark, Malta, Portugal, leaving a tax farm on a population base of more than 400 million Europeans (US: 220 million). Let’s see who is going to “win” this one.

    Even the leftist US deep state vassal Der Spiegel calls the efforts “ambitious”:

    The article admits that PESCO would not have happened without both Trump and Brexit (der Spiegel hates both Trump and

    The project is driven mostly by French ambition, where Germany is mainly following. Different speeds are allowed.

    The German-French axis was reinforced yesterday by the “reconciliation embrace” by the two presidents Macron and Steinmeier:

    Currently Europe spends about 50% of what the US spends (personal remark: the US spends 40% on a largely useless Navy in the light of hypersonic and accurate missiles). Member states are obliged to gradually increase defense budgets.

    Initially there were reservations from NATO about the coming European Army but meanwhile they have accepted new realities.

    The European escape from US grip seems to have succeeded, thanks to Trump and Brexit.

  43. Davy on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 9:33 am 

    Eurotard pussy, quite your whining. Your Eurotard land is not capable of taking care of itself. You can barely maintain a union. Be greatful for your US partner. Enjoy your wine and cheese and month long vacations. Geeze what a cry baby.

  44. Cloggie on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 9:47 am 

    Where exactly am I “whining”?


    We are just going to “liberate you back”.

    And restore the natural order.

    We are the real deal, you the eternal colony.

    You cannot liberate yourself, neither from the British nor the koshers. Heavier European guns need to be installed.

  45. Antius on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 10:25 am 

    Cloggie / Davy,

    Interesting, but what does it have to do with peak oil supply / demand?

  46. Davy on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 10:35 am 

    Antius, ask cloggie? I would much rather discuss energy issues. Until these extremist peddling their personal agendas are shamed into moderating I am going to moderate them. That is the part I am playing in your question.

  47. Cloggie on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 10:36 am 

    Breakthrough in wind tower construction: expensive huge cranes no longer required:

    Instead use the wind tower under construction as its own crane.

    That’s another 5-10% of the price.

  48. Davy on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 11:20 am 

    Redundant post cloggie, IOW, you are padding the board.

  49. Apneaman on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 11:38 am 

    clog, that’s awesome. When can we expect to see a drop in nasty emission from all these alt energy projects you keep posting? 2030? 2040? 20-never.

    Fossil fuel burning set to hit record high in 2017, scientists warn

    The rise would end three years of flat carbon emissions – a ‘huge leap backward’ say some scientists, while others say the longer term trend is more hopeful

    Be like those scientists and keep the faith. It’s all the humans have left.

    You’re all fucking ridiculous. The more humans go the WRONG way, the hopier you get. Hopey monkey people.

  50. GregT on Mon, 13th Nov 2017 12:03 pm 

    “Until these extremist peddling their personal agendas are shamed into moderating I am going to moderate them.”

    You aren’t moderating anybody. This is an open, unmoderated internet discussion forum.

    Nobody died and made you the boss. More delusions. If anything, you are simply adding more fuel to the fire.

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