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The Shale Boom in the Permian Is Slowing Down


The promise of the Permian is shrinking. Producers in the nation’s oil-rich shale basins are dialing back growth plans in the face of a growing panoply of problems that’s killing returns and keeping skeptical investors at bay. The constraints are manifold: pipeline limits, reduced flow from wells drilled too close together, low natural gas prices […]

World Oil Production As Of March 2019

World Oil Production As Of March 2019 thumbnail

New tight oil estimates were recently released by the EIA. The chart below compares estimates from Dec 2018 to May 2019, where the Dec 2018 estimate is that estimate with the most recent month estimated being Dec 2018 and likewise the May 2019 estimate has May 2019 as the most recent month estimated. The May […]

Shale: An Existential Threat From Within

Shale: An Existential Threat From Within thumbnail

1. Petrochemicals underperform oil – The oil majors have undertaken massive investments in petrochemical projects, viewing plastics as a more durable investment than simply producing crude oil. With the spread of electric vehicles and peak demand looming, the soaring use of plastics is seen as one of the last refuges for oil companies. – But […]



The United States became a net oil exporter for the first time in 75 years, or so they say.  While the U.S. may indeed be exporting more petroleum than it imports from time to time, there’s a dirty little secret behind the data.  And one of those secrets overlooked by some energy analysts and the […]

Opec Is Not Dead Yet, But It Has Lost Control Of The Oil Market


The death of Opec, the oil-producers cartel, has been predicted many times in the past, but rarely from a member of the club which is why this time it might be correct. So, when Iran’s Oil Minister, Bijan Zanganeh, warned earlier this week on the sidelines of a meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting […]

The Oil Crisis Saudi Arabia Can’t Solve


Saudi Arabia’s CEO Amin Nasr’s message to the press that oil flows to the market are guaranteed, should be taken with a pinch of salt. Looking at the current volatility in the Persian/Arabian Gulf and the possibility of a temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Aramco CEO’s message might be a bit overoptimistic. […]

TROUBLE AT THE BAKKEN: Oil Production Finally Peaking?

TROUBLE AT THE BAKKEN: Oil Production Finally Peaking? thumbnail

Is the mighty Bakken Shale Oil Field finally peaking?  Well, according to the data from the folks at the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources, oil production in the Bakken has been flat for the past six months.  And, to make matters worse, production has been flat even though oil prices increased from a low […]

Aramco Can Keep Crude Flowing if Hormuz Hit

Aramco Can Keep Crude Flowing if Hormuz Hit thumbnail

Saudi Arabian Oil Co. has the experience and infrastructure it needs to keep crude flowing should supply through the Strait of Hormuz be disrupted, according to the chief executive officer of the state-run producer. “We are increasing our readiness,” Amin Nasser said in an interview in Seoul on Tuesday. “We can supply through the Red […]

US Tight Oil Estimate and Projection to Dec 2019

US Tight Oil Estimate and Projection to Dec 2019 thumbnail

New tight oil estimates were recently released by the EIA. The chart below compares estimates from Dec 2018 to May 2019, where the Dec 2018 estimate is that estimate with the most recent month estimated being Dec 2018 and likewise the May 2019 estimate has May 2019 as the most recent month estimated. The May […]

Robert Rapier: The US Accounted For 98% Of Global Oil Production Growth In 2018


Earlier this month BP released its Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive picture of supply and demand for major energy sources on a country-level basis. Each year, I do a series of articles covering the Review’s findings. In the first article of the series, I discussed the trends in global carbon dioxide emissions. […]

Tom Whipple: When Will Oil Production Peak?


Next to global warming, the end of our ability to produce ever increasing amounts of oil is one of the most serious developments that humanity faces in this century. Ten years ago, many were concerned that global oil production was about to peak; however, just as oil reached $148 a barrel and gasoline climbed to […]

Iran oil minister says oil market is ‘fragile and unstable’


The global oil market is “unstable and fragile”, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh told Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak in a meeting in Tehran, Iran state broadcaster IRIB said on Monday. “We discussed the global oil markets and I said the market is highly manipulated by political agendas,” Zanganeh was quoted as saying by IRIB. […]

OPEC, Russia Nearing Accord on Long Term Oil Supply Coordination


OPEC and other producers including Russia are in final talks for an agreement, that may be signed in early July, to cooperate on oil supplies on a long-term basis, Japan’s Nikkei reported, citing Russian energy minister Alexander Novak.     Novak also told the Nikkei that discussions with OPEC on moving the date of the meeting […]

A Battle Between U.S. Production And Iran


Summary Oil remains above $50 per barrel on WTI and hovers around $60 on Brent. Another week of inventory builds in the US. New provocative acts in the Middle East. Brent-WTI remains firm. Trading in the current environment could offer the best opportunities – UCO and SCO for those who do not trade futures. Looking […]

Has the Oil Glut Disappeared?


It would seem from the IEA’s May Oil Market Report that geopolitical issues and industry disruptions are confusing the market. Ongoing production problems in Libya, alongside OPEC+ production cuts and U.S. sanctions on Iran, as well as lower than expected output in Mexico, have raised fears of a supply crunch. In addition, attacks by pirates […]

Oil Shock Model Scenarios

Oil Shock Model Scenarios thumbnail

Many different oil shock model scenarios have been presented over time at Peak Oil Barrel. Information on the Oil Shock Model, originally developed by Paul Pukite can be found in Mathematical Geoenergy. The future is unknown, so future extraction rates from conventional (excludes tight oil and extra heavy oil) oil producing reserves are unknown. Also […]

GOM Production Poised to Set New Records


Oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GoM) is poised to set new records in the imminent future. That’s what energy research and business intelligence company Rystad Energy said in a statement posted on its website recently. Rystad forecasts that 2019 oil output from the region will average 1.95 million barrels per day (bpd), […]

Canada: Oil production halts as fires spread

Canada: Oil production halts as fires spread thumbnail

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. has evacuated its Pelican Lake and Woodenhouse operations in northern Alberta in the first major shut-in of oil production triggered by wildfires this year. The producer on Thursday removed all 240 people working at the two sites, halting a combined 65,000 barrels a day of heavy crude, according to a statement […]

Independents Dominate US Energy Markets


A new IPAA-funded study projects a growing economic impact from US independents. Independent oil and gas companies dominate U.S. energy markets, contributing 83 percent of the country’s oil output and 90 percent of domestic natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) production. Those are two findings in a new Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA)-funded […]

Threats to America’s oil pipeline grid

Threats to America’s oil pipeline grid thumbnail

Preface. At some point of energy decline there will be Americans who tap into pipelines to get scarce oil for themselves and to sell it on black markets. Just look at the massive amount of oil being stolen in Nigeria here. And the rate of theft is increasing, in 2017 9,000 barrels a day were […]

Is The Oil Glut Coming Back?


Oil had its worst week of the year, and the plunge in prices have renewed concerns about the global economy, oil demand and a stubborn crude oil surplus. Oil fell along with everything else, as the gravity of the escalating U.S.-China trade war began to sink in. But there are cracks specific to the oil […]

North Sea Oil Production Struggling


North Sea oil production is struggling, according to independent energy research and intelligence business Rystad Energy. The company’s North Sea oil output forecast – which looks at crude and lease condensate production, including onshore, for Norway, the United Kingdom, Denmark and the Netherlands – projects that 185,000 barrels per day (bpd) of outages will be […]

Surge of New Permian Basin Oil to Feed Global Supply


Exports of the Permian Basin’s newest kind of oil are set to jump as production surges, exceeding the appetite of U.S. refiners. Sales of the new grade, known as West Texas Light, began in September, as explorers sought to separate out increasingly lighter and less sulfurous crude bubbling up from wells in West Texas and […]

The IEA’s Dire Warning For Energy Markets


Global energy investment “stabilised” at just over $1.8 trillion in 2018, ending three years of declines. Higher spending on oil, natural gas and coal was offset by declines in fossil fuel-based electricity generation and even a dip in renewable energy spending. China was the largest market for energy investment, even as the U.S. closed the […]

OPEC April Production Data


The data below was taken from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. All data is through April 2019 and is in thousand barrels per day. The data is crude only, that is it does not include condensate. Total OPEC production hardly moved in April, down a mere 3,000 barrels per day. Algeria peaked in 2008 and […]

Is Deepwater In Permanent Decline?


No. At least according to a recent poll conducted during a presentation at the 2019 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas. The majority of poll participants attending the presentation, which focused on offshore deepwater, answered no when asked if they considered the segment to be in permanent decline. In a separate poll during the presentation, […]

Iran to sell oil in ‘grey market’ as US tightens sanctions

Iran to sell oil in ‘grey market’ as US tightens sanctions thumbnail

Iran has mobilised all its resources to sell oil in a “grey market”, a top official said, after the United States told buyers of Iranian oil – including China, India and Turkey – to stop purchases or face sanctions. Amir Hossein Zamaninia, Iran’s deputy oil minister, told state media on Sunday that Iran will continue […]

Iraq, Kurdistan To Discuss 50% Increase In Oil Production

Iraq, Kurdistan To Discuss 50% Increase In Oil Production thumbnail

The central Iraqi government will meet with its Kurdish counterparts soon to talk about oil exports from the now semi-autonomous region that tried to gain independence last year. Reuters reported, citing Iraq’s oil minister, Thamer Ghadhban, that the two sides will also discuss the increase of oil production from the fields around the northern city […]

Peak Oil, Abiotic Oil & EROEI: Real(ish)


Guest Seinfeld routine by David Middleton The plots of the Seinfeld TV show often revolved around trivializing important things and blowing trivial things out of proportion. While not a Seinfeld fanatic (I’m more of a Frasier fanatic), I thought the comedy routines were generally brilliant and quite effective. Peak Oil, abiotic oil and EROEI (energy […]

Saudi Arabia’s biggest oil field is fading faster than anyone guessed


It was a state secret and the source of a kingdom’s riches. It was so important that US military planners once debated how to seize it by force. For oil traders, it was a source of endless speculation. Now the market finally knows: in Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest conventional oil field, can produce a […]

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