Oil and Bitcoin highlight growing risk of market crash

The risk of a “flash crash” in markets is rising, strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said on Friday, after a week in which previously-booming cryptocurrency Bitcoin tumbled, oil sank, and investors piled into stocks perceived as safer. FILE PHOTO: A fisherman pulls in his net as an oil tanker is seen at the […]

Oil’s in a Bear Market Again

Crude oil prices fell into bear-market territory, as prices fell more than 1% in Thursday trading. Crude has been weighed down by signs of eroding global economic growth, wilting demand and even the U.S.’s decision to offer waivers on sanctions of Iran. Brent crude dropped 2% to $70.65 a barrel on Thursday, while West Texas […]

Crude’s Collapse & The ‘C’ Word

Why aren’t more people talking about this? It’s a huge development and nary a peep anywhere. The mainstream media is filled with baited expectations for 3% wage growth on Payroll Friday. All eyes are on the labor market, which is a lagging indication, instead of on the oil market, which is forward looking. As of […]

US Shale Oil Industry: Catastrophic Failure Ahead

While the U.S. Shale Industry produces a record amount of oil, it continues to be plagued by massive oil decline rates and debt.  Moreover, even as the companies brag about lowering the break-even cost to produce shale oil, the industry still spends more than it makes.  When we add up all the negative factors weighing down […]

New York’s AG claims that Exxon Mobil has been lying to itself

Before resigning this year amid allegations of sexual abuse, former New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman spent nearly three years trying to harpoon his great white political whale— Exxon Mobil . His hunt failed to uncover malfeasance, but the AG’s office is suing Exxon anyway in a case that should be laughed out of court. […]

Big Oil’s Big Payday Finally Arrives

Big Oil’s big payday has finally arrived. The question now is how to spend the extra cash. Investors will be reading the third-quarter tea leaves to discern whether executives plan to boost dividends and buybacks, hike spending on shiny new mega projects, or perhaps even do both. What they do know is that fresh sources […]

Oil Company Headquarters Make a Powerful Statement

The Lakhta Center in St. Petersburg, Russia, will be the new headquarters of Gazprom.CreditCreditAnton Vaganov\TASS, via Getty Images   Striking headquarters have long been synonymous with energy companies for canny, unabashedly capitalist reasons, said Marc Kushner, a partner at the architecture firm Hollwich Kushner. “Great architecture by great architects is a way to physically manifest […]

Hedge Fund Legend Ray Dalio On The Economy

Ray Dalio is the founder and co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world. Dalio is sharing his template for understanding debt crises, which he says helped him and his fund foresee and navigate the financial crisis.

World Economy At Risk Of Another Financial Crash

Debt is above 2008 level and failure to reform banking system could trigger crisis…   The floor of the New York stock exchange in September 2008. Photograph: Richard Drew/AP The world economy is at risk of another financial meltdown, following the failure of governments and regulators to push through all the reforms  needed to protect the […]

Never Underestimate The Power Of Big Oil

I became a shareholder of Chevron CVX +0.28% Corp (NYSE:CVX) when it acquired the former Texaco, which I believe was the first stock I ever bought. I was fresh out of business school and made an investment in Texaco’s dividend reinvestment plan, and I’m happy to report that I literally make more in dividends every […]

It’s The Oil, Stupid

Summary Rising crude prices have grabbed headlines of late and it’s important to understand how oil factors into what some analysts are calling “cyclical melt-up 2.0”. There’s a connection here to the vaunted “convergence” trade. It’s tempting to ascribe the relationship between crude and bonds to inflation expectations. But one bank thinks that’s not a […]

Will the Dollar – Oil correlation get back into gear

Quotable “Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil.” –J. Paul Getty  Commentary & Analysis Chart Analysis/Comments/Guesses: During the hay days of the US-China symbiotic commodities for shrinking dollar boom there was an extremely tight negative correlation between the US dollar and oil prices, i.e. as the US dollar pushed lower and lower into […]

Don’t Believe The Hype – Oil Prices Aren’t Going Back To $100

The breakout in Brent crude prices above $80 this week has prompted analysts at the sell side banks to start talking about a return to $100 a barrel oil. Even President Trump has gotten involved, demanding that OPEC ramp up production to send oil prices lower before they start to weigh on US consumer spending, […]

Even the people with the most to gain from $100-a-barrel oil have a lot to lose

Another eye in the back of your head might be useful this week. Investors are watching the trade situation, a two-day Fed meeting that starts Tuesday, rising bond yields and now, climbing oil prices. LCOX8, -0.45%  was pushing $82 a barrel early Tuesday, extending its climb to a four-year high from Monday. Gains came after […]

Financial Experts Predict Crash Under Trump Greater than Depression

Financial experts noted several ominous economic indicators, including skyrocketing student loans and U.S. household debts, that could predict a crash “worse than the Great Depression,” according to a report in the New York Post. Goldman Sachs predicted that this year’s U.S. fiscal outlook would be “not good,” and that U.S. household debt had been increasing since the 2008 housing crisis […]

There’s Still A Future For Nuclear Power

The world is consuming ever-growing amounts of energy, and consumption is set for a particularly intensive growth in electricity. Put simply, people are going to need more electricity in the years to come as we shift away from fossil fuels. This fast growth will require more generation capacity, some of which will be nuclear. In […]

The next financial crash is imminent, and China’s resource crisis could be the trigger

China’s economic slowdown could be a key trigger of the coming global financial crisis, but one of its core drivers — China’s dwindling supplies of cheap domestic energy — is little understood by mainstream economists. All eyes are on China as the world braces itself for what a growing number of financial analysts warn could be another global economic […]

Dollar, Oil Take ‘Counterintuitive’ Market Paths

In “Futures In Focus,” Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management, examines the dollar, oil prices, and Treasuries. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Vonnie Quinn on “Bloomberg Markets.” (Source: Bloomberg)

No Fracking Way: Debt-Laden Shale Producers May Unleash The Next Financial Crisis

After nearly two decades of horizontal drilling, fracking – as it is commonly known, has “turned the energy world upside down,” according to Journalist Bethany McLean, a former Goldman Sachs analyst-turned-journalist. And according to a new op-ed in the New York Times, McLean has a warning for anyone betting the farm on the shale industry; beware. In a […]

The History of Gold-Oil Ratios: 1970-2018

Today I document and analyze gold and oil prices and their ratios from January 1970 to August 2018. This is the second part of our research and analysis on gold-oil ratios since World War II.   As a reminder, we use monthly average London gold prices provided by Kitco.com and monthly average oil prices for […]

Are Oil and Gas Executives Overpaid?

(Today’s post is co-authored by Catherine Hausman, an assistant professor at the University of Michigan and Ph.D. graduate of UC Berkeley.) New Energy Institute study finds that U.S. oil and gas executives are “paid-for-luck,” with executive compensation increasing significantly during periods of high oil prices.   Crude oil prices are now near $70 per barrel, […]

The Biggest Threat To The Oil And Gas Industry

Trump’s trade war is taking a toll on the oil and gas industry. There has been some eleventh-hour drama over the renegotiation of NAFTA, but the energy industry is likely going to dodge a bullet on that front, with the most contentious issues revolving around agriculture and automobiles. But even if the NAFTA renegotiation succeeds, […]

Where Will The Next Crisis Come From?

Key Points It’s been 10 years since a U.S. financial shock turned into a crisis in the global financial, market and economic system. A shock turns into a crisis when the system is unprepared for it. The system is often at its most vulnerable near the end of the global economic cycle when excesses have […]

The US Dollar Will Collapse Next Week – Peter Schiff

The catalyst for the rise in gold and the decline in the dollar, I believe, was the dovish speech given by Jerome Powell today in Jackson Hole. Whether or not the speech is perceived as dovishly as I believe it is, I think we’re going to have to see if we are going to get […]

Saudi Arabia Calls Off Aramco IPO, Disbands Advisors

Two years ago, when the Aramco IPO was first floated, bankers on Wall Street declared a week-long fee orgy: after all, the $1+ trillion IPO – the biggest in history – was going to result in an underwriting fee bonanza. However, it was not meant to be, and last October the first reports emerged that the IPO […]

No Seller – Not Even China – Can Disrupt US By Selling Treasurys…But The “Why” Ain’t Good

I often read that China may retaliate against US trade sanctions by further decreasing their US Treasury holdings, sending Treasury yields significantly higher, thus blowing out US deficit spending on interest payments.  Trouble is, Chinese Treasury holdings peaked in 2014 (on an annualized basis) and have been declining since.  The Chinese have not only ceased accumulating US […]

Oil Is Losing Its Grip Over the Currencies of Top Energy Producers

Oil’s typically a key driver of the world economy, and an indicator of the industrial cycle. Higher prices can act as a drag on global growth while enriching nations who suck it out of the soil. When other drivers such as politics take hold of their currencies, crude can become a useful diversifier for a […]

At Iran’s Risk, Trump Is Winning Over Fastest Growing Oil Market

One of Iran’s biggest oil customers is buying more U.S. crude as President Donald Trump sticks to his pledge to squeeze the Persian Gulf nation’s energy trade. State-run refiner Indian Oil Corp., which had been buying U.S. crude in the spot market, signed a term tender to purchase American oil for delivery every month between […]

Boom over: The industry that was spending $10000 a minute has reached its peak

At the peak of the LNG construction boom, oil and gas company Santos was spending about $10,000 a minute over seven years to bring its $25 billion Queensland-based Gladstone LNG project online. But the days of new gas mega-projects being built is over as the industry shifts into a new gear of producing gas, says […]

The State of Fossil Fuel According to World Petroleum Council

The World Petroleum Council: How to Finish the Race with Limited Gas There is this saying that if you fuel your journey with fear and doubt, you are surely going to run out of gas. But fret not, the road is just sometimes fraught with uncharted terrains and bumps. This month’s issue features an exclusive […]

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