Fracking in 2018: Another Year of Pretending to Make Money

2018 was the year the oil and gas industry promised that its darling, the shale fracking revolution, would stop focusing on endless production and instead turn a profit for its investors. But as the year winds to a close, it’s clear that hasn’t happened. Instead, the fracking industry has helped set new records for U.S. oil production while continuing to lose […]

How to Value an Oil and Gas Company

In part one of this series, we looked the structure of the oil market, the defining features of the companies that comprise it and the factors affecting oil price. In part two, we will introduce some metrics commonly used to model future cash flows in order to more accurately value these businesses. Cash is king In […]

Mexico Confirms It Completed 2019 Oil Hedge at $55 a Barrel

Mexico’s Finance Ministry confirmed that it spent about $1.23 billion to protect 2019 revenues against falling crude prices in the world’s largest annual oil deal. The oil producer locked in hedges at $55 a barrel, equivalent to the price approved by lawmakers for the 2019 budget, according to a Finance Ministry statement. The total expense […]

The Scenarios Of The Collapse – “The World Is Utterly Unprepared”

2019 has started more calmly after a very volatile year-end in the markets. Focus has been on the trade deal between China and the US and the words of the central bankers, most notably those of Jay Powell. However, this is all just a distraction, a side-show. The market volatility was only the first sign […]

How a Global Collapse Will Affect American Farmers

Are we heading for a global financial collapse? What can we expect from the trade wars? Should we build a wall? Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan will be sharing his answers to those questions, and many more, at the Land Investment Expo on Friday, January 25, 2019, at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa. […]

China taking on U.S. dollar, forging ahead in digital payment

  While China has made major strides in catching up with the United States in terms of economic power, it still lags far behind in finance. In various ways, the dollar still reigns supreme over the yuan. However, that is not stopping China from carving out new sectors of influence in digital technology and artificial […]

Exxon asks EPA to regulate methane emissions from oil and gas

Flames from a flaring pit near a well in the Bakken Oil Field in North Dakota. Photo: Orjan F. Ellingvag/Corbis via Getty Images ExxonMobil Corp., the world’s biggest publicly traded oil company, is calling on the Environmental Protection Agency to regulate emissions of methane from all new and existing oil and gas wells across the […]

Oil God Forecasts Price Move

If you want to place a bet on oil right now, you’re probably better off betting on it going up than going down. If you want to place a bet on oil right now, you’re probably better off betting on it going up than going down. That’s what Andy Hall, an oil trader nicknamed God, […]

Hess Corp sees oil output growing 10 percent per year through 2025

Hess Corp said on Wednesday it expects oil and gas output to grow more than 10 percent a year compounded through 2025, touting development of its Bakken shale and offshore Guyana projects. Pumpjacks taken out of production temporarily stand idle at a Hess site The company projects higher margins will drive compound annual cash flow […]

The ‘Everything Bubble” Has Popped

Now that the world’s central banking cartel is taking a long-overdue pause from printing money and handing it to the wealthy elite, the collection of asset price bubbles nested within the Everything Bubble are starting to burst. The cartel (especially the ECB and the Fed) is hoping it can gently deflate these bubbles it created, but that’s […]

World Bank Warns Of Extreme Volatility In Oil Markets

After several months of oil price rises and then a sharp reversal over the last few weeks, world oil markets are in for more heightened volatility next year because of scarce spare production capacity among OPEC members. This warning comes from the World Bank, which in the latest edition of its Russia Economic Report said […]

The Oil Industry Is Facing A “Capex Conundrum”

Oil industry executives are surely pleased with themselves this year, with both large and small companies reporting improved financials after years of struggling. A Reuters survey finds a significant shift towards profitability for the U.S. shale industry after years of rising debt and negative cash flow. Reuters analyzed 32 independent shale companies, and about a […]

Oil and Bitcoin highlight growing risk of market crash

The risk of a “flash crash” in markets is rising, strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said on Friday, after a week in which previously-booming cryptocurrency Bitcoin tumbled, oil sank, and investors piled into stocks perceived as safer. FILE PHOTO: A fisherman pulls in his net as an oil tanker is seen at the […]

Oil’s in a Bear Market Again

Crude oil prices fell into bear-market territory, as prices fell more than 1% in Thursday trading. Crude has been weighed down by signs of eroding global economic growth, wilting demand and even the U.S.’s decision to offer waivers on sanctions of Iran. Brent crude dropped 2% to $70.65 a barrel on Thursday, while West Texas […]

Crude’s Collapse & The ‘C’ Word

Why aren’t more people talking about this? It’s a huge development and nary a peep anywhere. The mainstream media is filled with baited expectations for 3% wage growth on Payroll Friday. All eyes are on the labor market, which is a lagging indication, instead of on the oil market, which is forward looking. As of […]

US Shale Oil Industry: Catastrophic Failure Ahead

While the U.S. Shale Industry produces a record amount of oil, it continues to be plagued by massive oil decline rates and debt.  Moreover, even as the companies brag about lowering the break-even cost to produce shale oil, the industry still spends more than it makes.  When we add up all the negative factors weighing down […]

New York’s AG claims that Exxon Mobil has been lying to itself

Before resigning this year amid allegations of sexual abuse, former New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman spent nearly three years trying to harpoon his great white political whale— Exxon Mobil . His hunt failed to uncover malfeasance, but the AG’s office is suing Exxon anyway in a case that should be laughed out of court. […]

Big Oil’s Big Payday Finally Arrives

Big Oil’s big payday has finally arrived. The question now is how to spend the extra cash. Investors will be reading the third-quarter tea leaves to discern whether executives plan to boost dividends and buybacks, hike spending on shiny new mega projects, or perhaps even do both. What they do know is that fresh sources […]

Oil Company Headquarters Make a Powerful Statement

The Lakhta Center in St. Petersburg, Russia, will be the new headquarters of Gazprom.CreditCreditAnton Vaganov\TASS, via Getty Images   Striking headquarters have long been synonymous with energy companies for canny, unabashedly capitalist reasons, said Marc Kushner, a partner at the architecture firm Hollwich Kushner. “Great architecture by great architects is a way to physically manifest […]

Hedge Fund Legend Ray Dalio On The Economy

Ray Dalio is the founder and co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world. Dalio is sharing his template for understanding debt crises, which he says helped him and his fund foresee and navigate the financial crisis.

World Economy At Risk Of Another Financial Crash

Debt is above 2008 level and failure to reform banking system could trigger crisis…   The floor of the New York stock exchange in September 2008. Photograph: Richard Drew/AP The world economy is at risk of another financial meltdown, following the failure of governments and regulators to push through all the reforms  needed to protect the […]

Never Underestimate The Power Of Big Oil

I became a shareholder of Chevron CVX +0.28% Corp (NYSE:CVX) when it acquired the former Texaco, which I believe was the first stock I ever bought. I was fresh out of business school and made an investment in Texaco’s dividend reinvestment plan, and I’m happy to report that I literally make more in dividends every […]

It’s The Oil, Stupid

Summary Rising crude prices have grabbed headlines of late and it’s important to understand how oil factors into what some analysts are calling “cyclical melt-up 2.0”. There’s a connection here to the vaunted “convergence” trade. It’s tempting to ascribe the relationship between crude and bonds to inflation expectations. But one bank thinks that’s not a […]

Will the Dollar – Oil correlation get back into gear

Quotable “Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil.” –J. Paul Getty  Commentary & Analysis Chart Analysis/Comments/Guesses: During the hay days of the US-China symbiotic commodities for shrinking dollar boom there was an extremely tight negative correlation between the US dollar and oil prices, i.e. as the US dollar pushed lower and lower into […]

Don’t Believe The Hype – Oil Prices Aren’t Going Back To $100

The breakout in Brent crude prices above $80 this week has prompted analysts at the sell side banks to start talking about a return to $100 a barrel oil. Even President Trump has gotten involved, demanding that OPEC ramp up production to send oil prices lower before they start to weigh on US consumer spending, […]

Even the people with the most to gain from $100-a-barrel oil have a lot to lose

Another eye in the back of your head might be useful this week. Investors are watching the trade situation, a two-day Fed meeting that starts Tuesday, rising bond yields and now, climbing oil prices. LCOX8, -0.45%  was pushing $82 a barrel early Tuesday, extending its climb to a four-year high from Monday. Gains came after […]

Financial Experts Predict Crash Under Trump Greater than Depression

Financial experts noted several ominous economic indicators, including skyrocketing student loans and U.S. household debts, that could predict a crash “worse than the Great Depression,” according to a report in the New York Post. Goldman Sachs predicted that this year’s U.S. fiscal outlook would be “not good,” and that U.S. household debt had been increasing since the 2008 housing crisis […]

There’s Still A Future For Nuclear Power

The world is consuming ever-growing amounts of energy, and consumption is set for a particularly intensive growth in electricity. Put simply, people are going to need more electricity in the years to come as we shift away from fossil fuels. This fast growth will require more generation capacity, some of which will be nuclear. In […]

The next financial crash is imminent, and China’s resource crisis could be the trigger

China’s economic slowdown could be a key trigger of the coming global financial crisis, but one of its core drivers — China’s dwindling supplies of cheap domestic energy — is little understood by mainstream economists. All eyes are on China as the world braces itself for what a growing number of financial analysts warn could be another global economic […]

Dollar, Oil Take ‘Counterintuitive’ Market Paths

In “Futures In Focus,” Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management, examines the dollar, oil prices, and Treasuries. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Vonnie Quinn on “Bloomberg Markets.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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