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Page added on February 13, 2021

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Where Energy Modeling Goes Wrong

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There are a huge number of people doing energy modeling. In my opinion, nearly all of them are going astray in their modeling because they don’t understand how the economy really operates.

The modeling that comes closest to being correct is that which underlies the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others. This modeling was based on physical quantities of resources, with no financial system whatsoever. The base model, shown here, indicates that limits would be reached a few years later than we actually seem to be reaching them. The dotted black line in Figure 1 indicates where I saw the world economy to be in January 2019, based on the limits we already seemed to be reaching at that time.

Figure 1. Base scenario from 1972 Limits to Growth, printed using today’s graphics by Charles Hall and John Day in “Revisiting Limits to Growth After Peak Oil,” with dotted line added corresponding to where I saw the world economy to be in January 2019, based on how the economy was operating at that time.

The authors of The Limits to Growth have said that their model cannot be expected to be correct after limits hit (which is about now), so even this model is less than perfect. Thus, this model cannot be relied upon to show that population will continue to rise until after 2050.

Many readers are familiar with Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) calculations. These are favorites of many people following the Peak Oil problem. A high ratio of Energy Returned to Energy Invested is considered favorable, while a low ratio is considered unfavorable. Energy sources with similar EROEIs are supposedly equivalent. Even these similarities can be misleading. They make intermittent wind and solar appear far more helpful than they really are.

Other modeling, such as that by oil companies, is equally wrong. Their modeling tends to make future fossil fuel supplies look far more available than they really are.

This is all related to a talk I plan to give to energy researchers later in February. So far, all that is pinned down is the Summary, which I reproduce here as Section [1], below.

[1] Summary: The economy is approaching near-term collapse, not peak oil. The result is quite different.

The way a person views the world economy makes a huge difference in how one models it. A big issue is how connected the various parts of the economy are. Early researchers assumed that oil was the key energy product; if it were possible to find suitable substitutes for oil, the danger of exhaustion of oil resources could be delayed almost indefinitely.

In fact, the operation of the world economy is controlled by the laws of physics. All parts are tightly linked. The problem of diminishing returns affects far more than oil supply; it affects coal, natural gas, mineral extraction in general, fresh water production and food production. Based on the work of Joseph Tainter, we also know that added complexity is also subject to diminishing returns.

When a person models how the system works, it becomes apparent that as increasing complexity is added to the system, the portion of the economic output that can be returned to non-elite workers as goods and services drops dramatically. This leads to rising wage disparity as increasing complexity is added to the economy. As the economy approaches limits, rising wage disparity indirectly leads to a tendency toward low prices for oil and other commodities because a growing number of non-elite workers are unable to afford homes, cars and even proper nutrition.

A second effect of added complexity is growing use of long-lasting goods available through technology. Many of these long-lasting goods are only affordable with financial time-shifting devices such as loans or the sale of shares of stock. As non-elite workers become increasingly unable to afford the output of the economy, these time-shifting devices provide a way to raise demand (and thus prices) for commodities of all types, including oil. These time-shifting devices are subject to manipulation by central banks, within limits.

Standard calculations of Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI) ignore the fact that added complexity tends to have a very detrimental impact on the economy because of the diminishing returns it produces. To correct for this, today’s EROEI calculations should only be used to compare energy systems with similar complexity. The least complex energy systems are based on burned biomass and power from animals. Fossil fuels represent a step upward in complexity, but they still can be stored until their use is required. Intermittent renewables are far ahead of fossil fuels in terms complexity: they require sophisticated systems of storage and distribution and therefore cannot be considered equivalent to oil or dispatchable electricity.

The lack of understanding of how the economy really works has led to the failure to understand several important points:

(i) Low oil prices rather than high are to be expected as the economy reaches limits,

(ii) Most fossil fuel reserves will be left in the ground because of low prices,

(iii) The economy is experiencing the historical phenomenon of collapse, rather than peak oil, and

(iv) If the economy is not to collapse, we need energy sources providing a larger quantity of net energy per capita to offset diminishing returns.

[2] The world’s energy problem, as commonly understood by researchers today

It is my observation that many researchers believe that we humans are in charge of what happens with future fossil fuel extraction, or with choosing to substitute intermittent renewables for fossil fuels. They generally do not see any problem with “running out” in the near future. If running out were imminent, the problem would likely be announced by spiking prices.

In the predominant view, the amount of future fossil fuels available depends upon the quantity of energy resources that can be extracted with available technology. Thus, a proper estimate of the resources that can be extracted is needed. Oil seems to be in shortest supply based on its reserve estimates and the vast benefits it provides to society. Thus, it is commonly believed that oil production will “peak” and begin to decline first, before coal and natural gas.

In this view, demand is something that we never need to worry about because energy, and especially oil, is a necessity. People will choose energy over other products because they will pay whatever is necessary to have adequate energy supplies. As a result, oil and other energy prices will rise almost endlessly, allowing much more to be extracted. These higher prices will also enable higher cost intermittent electricity to be substituted for today’s fossil fuels.

A huge amount of additional fossil fuels can be extracted, according to those who are primarily concerned about loss of biodiversity and climate change. Those who analyze EROEI tend to believe that falling EROEI will limit the quantity of future fossil fuels extracted to a smaller total extracted amount. Because of this, energy from additional sources, such as intermittent wind and solar, will be required to meet the total energy demand of society.

The focus of EROEI studies is on whether the EROEI of a given proposed substitution is, in some sense, high enough to add energy to the economy. The calculation of EROEI makes no distinction made between energy available only through highly complex systems and energy available from less complex systems.

EROEI researchers, or perhaps those who rely on the indications of EROEI researchers, seem to believe that the energy needs of economies are flexible within a very wide range. Thus, an economy can shrink its energy consumption without a particularly dire impact.

[3] The real story seems to be that the adverse outcome we are reaching is collapse, not peak oil. The economy is a self-organizing system powered by energy. This makes it behave in very unexpected ways.

[3a] The economy is tightly connected by the laws of physics.

Energy consumption (dissipation) is necessary for every aspect of the economy. People often understand that making goods and services requires energy dissipation. What they don’t realize is that almost all of today’s jobs require energy dissipation, as well. Without supplemental energy, humans could only gather wild fruits and vegetables and hunt using the simplest of tools. Or, they could attempt simple horticulture by using a stick to dig a place in the ground to plant a seed.

In physics terms, the economy is a dissipative structure, which is a self-organizing structure that grows over time. Other examples of dissipative structures include hurricanes, plants and animals of all types, ecosystems, and star systems. Without a supply of energy to dissipate (that is, food to eat, in the case of humans), these dissipative structures would collapse.

We know that the human body has many different systems, such as a cardiovascular system, digestive system and nervous system. The economy has many different systems, too, and is just as tightly connected. For example, the economy cannot get along without a transportation system any more than a human can get along without a cardiovascular system.

This self-organizing system acts without our direction, just as our brain or circulatory system acts without our direction. In fact, we have very little control over these systems.

The self-organizing economy allows common belief systems to arise that seem to be right but are really based on models with many incorrect assumptions. People desperately need and want a “happily ever after” solution. The strong need for a desirable outcome favors the selection of models that lead to the conclusion that if there is a problem, it is many years away. Conflicting political views seem to be based on different, equally wrong, models of how world leaders can solve the energy predicament that the world is facing.

The real story is that the world’s self-organizing economy will determine for us what is ahead, and there is virtually nothing we can do to change the result. Strangely enough, if we look at the long term pattern, there almost seems to be a guiding hand behind the result. According to Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee in Rare Earth, there have been a huge number of seeming coincidences that have allowed life on earth to take hold and flourish for four billion years. Perhaps this “luck” will continue.

[3b] As the economy reaches limits, commodities of many types reach diminishing returns simultaneously.

It is indeed true that the economy reaches diminishing returns in oil supply as it reaches limits. Oil is very valuable because it is energy dense and easily transported. The oil that can be extracted, refined, and delivered to needed markets using the least amount of resources (including human labor) tends to be extracted first. It is later that deeper wells are built that are farther from markets. Because of these issues, oil extraction does tend to reach diminishing returns, as more is extracted.

If this were the only aspect of the economy that was experiencing diminishing returns, then the models coming from a peak oil perspective would make sense. We could move away from oil, simply by transferring oil use to appropriately chosen substitutes.

It becomes clear when a person looks at the situation that commodities of all kinds reach diminishing returns. Fresh water reaches diminishing returns. We can add more by using desalination and pumping water to where it is required, but this approach is hugely expensive. As population and industrialization grows, the need for fresh water grows, making diminishing returns for fresh water a real issue.

Minerals of all kinds reach diminishing returns, including uranium, lithium, copper and phosphate rock (used for fertilizer). The reason this occurs is because we tend to extract these minerals faster than they are replaced by the weathering of rocks, including bedrock. In fact, useable topsoil tends to reach diminishing returns because of erosion. Also, with increasing population, the amount of food required keeps increasing, putting further pressure on farmland and making it harder to retain an acceptable level of topsoil.

[3c] Increased complexity leads to diminishing returns as well.

In his book, The Collapse of Complex Societies, Joseph Tainter points out that complexity reaches diminishing returns, just as commodities do.

As an example, it is easy to see that added spending on healthcare reaches diminishing returns. The discovery of antibiotics clearly had a huge impact on healthcare, at relatively little cost. Now, a recent article is entitled, The hunt for antibiotics grows harder as resistance builds. The dollar payback on other drugs tends to fall as well, as solutions to the most common diseases are found, and researchers must turn their attention to diseases affecting only, perhaps, 500 people globally.

Similarly, spending on advanced education reaches diminishing returns. Continuing the medical example above, educating an increasing number of researchers, all looking for new antibiotics, may eventually lead to success in discovering more antibiotics. But the payback with respect to the education of these researchers will not be nearly as great as the payback for educating the early researchers who found the first antibiotics.

[3d] Wages do not rise sufficiently so that all of the higher costs associated with the many types of diminishing returns can be recouped simultaneously.

The health care system (at least in the United States) tends to let its higher costs flow through to consumers. We can see this by looking at how much higher the Medical Care Consumer Price Index (CPI) rises compared to the All Items CPI in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Consumer price index for Medical Care versus for All Items, in chart made by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis.

The high (and rapidly rising) cost of advanced education is another cost that is being passed on to consumers–the students and their parents. In this case, loans are used to make the high cost look less problematic.

Of course, if consumers are burdened with higher medical and educational costs, it makes it difficult to afford the higher cost of energy products, as well. With these higher costs, young people tend to live with their parents longer, saving on the energy products needed to have their own homes and vehicles. Needless to say, the lower net income for many people, after health care costs and student loan repayments are deducted, acts to reduce the demand for oil and energy products, and thus contributes to the problem of continued low oil prices.

[3e] Added complexity tends to increase wage disparities. The reduced spending by lower income workers tends to hold down fossil fuel prices, similar to the impact identified in Section [3d].

As the economy becomes more complex, companies tend to become larger and more hierarchical. Elite workers (ones with more training or with more supervisory responsibility) earn more than non-elite workers. Globalization adds to this effect, as workers in high wage countries increasingly compete with workers in lower wage countries. Even computer programmers can encounter this difficulty, as programming is increasingly moved to China and India.

Figure 3. Figure by Pew Research Center in Trends in Income and Wealth Inequality, published January 9, 2020. https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/

Individuals with low incomes spend a disproportionately large share of their incomes on commodities because everyone needs to eat approximately 2,000 calories of food per day. In addition, everyone needs some kind of shelter, clothing and basic transportation. All of these types of consumption are commodity intensive. People with very high incomes tend to buy disproportionately more goods and services that are not very resource intensive, such as education for their children at elite universities. They may also use part of their income to buy shares of stock, hoping their value will rise.

With a shift in the distribution of incomes toward those with high earnings, the demand for commodities of all types tends to stagnate or even fall. Fewer people are able to buy new cars, and fewer people can afford vacations involving travel. Thus, as more complexity is added, there tends to be downward pressure on the price of oil and other energy products.

[4] Oil prices have been falling behind those needed by oil producers since 2012.

Figure 4. Figure created by Gail Tverberg using EIA average monthly Brent oil price data, adjusted for inflation using the CPI Index for All Items for Urban Consumers.

Back in February 2014, Steven Kopits gave a presentation at Columbia University explaining the state of the oil industry. I wrote a post describing this presentation called, Beginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending. Oil companies were reporting that prices had been too low for them to make an adequate profit for reinvestment, back as early as 2012. In inflation-adjusted terms, this was when oil prices were about $120 per barrel.

Even Middle Eastern oil exporting countries need surprisingly high oil prices because their economies depend on the profits of oil companies to provide the vast majority of their tax revenue. If oil prices are too low, adequate taxes cannot be collected. Without funds for jobs programs and food subsidies, there are likely to be uprisings by unhappy citizens who cannot maintain an adequate standard of living.

Looking at Figure 4, we see that there has been very little time that Brent oil prices have been above $120 per barrel. Even with all of the recent central bank stimulus and deficit spending by economies around the world, Brent oil prices remain below $60 per barrel.

[5] Interest rates and the amount of debt make a huge difference in oil prices, too.

Based on Figure 4, oil prices are highly irregular. Much of this irregularity seems to be associated with interest rate and debt level changes. In fact, in July 2008, what I would call the debt bubble associated with the subprime housing and credit cards collapsed, bringing oil prices down from their peak abruptly. In late 2008, Quantitative Easing (QE), (aimed at bringing interest rates down) was added just prior to an upturn on prices in 2009 and 2010. Prices fell again, when the United States discontinued QE in late 2014.

If we think about it, increased debt makes purchases such as cars, homes and new factories more affordable. In fact, the lower the interest rate, the more affordable these items become. The number of purchases of any of these items can be expected to rise with more debt and lower interest rates. Thus, we would expect oil prices to rise as debt is added and fall as it is taken away. Now, there are many questions: Why haven’t oil prices risen more, with all of the stimulus that has been added? Are we reaching the limits of stimulus? Are interest rates as low as they can go, and the amount of debt outstanding as high as it can go?

[6] The growing complexity of the economy is contributing to the huge amount of debt outstanding.

In a very complex economy, a huge number of durable goods and services are produced. Examples of durable goods would include machines used in factories and pipelines of all kinds. Durable goods would also include vehicles of all types, including both vehicles used for businesses and vehicles used by consumers for their own benefit. As broadly defined here, durable goods would include buildings of all types, including factories, schools, offices and homes. It would also include wind turbines and solar panels.

There would also be durable services produced. For example, a college degree would have lasting benefit, it is hoped. A computer program would have value after it is completed. Thus, a consulting service is able to sell its programs to prospective buyers.

Somehow, there is a need to pay for all of these durable goods. We can see this most easily for the consumer. A loan that allows durable goods to be paid for over their expected life will make these goods more affordable.

Similarly, a manufacturer needs to pay the many workers making all of the durable goods. Their labor is adding value to the finished products, but this value will not be realized until the finished products are put into operation.

Other financing approaches can also be used, including the sale of bonds or shares of stock. The underlying intent is to provide financial time-shifting services. Interest rates associated with these financial time-shifting services are now being manipulated downward by central banks to make these services more affordable. This is part of what keeps stock prices high and commodity prices from falling lower than their current levels.

These loans, bonds and shares of stock are providing a promise of future value. This value will exist only if there are enough fossil fuels and other resources to create physical goods and services to fulfill these promises. Central banks can print money, but they cannot print actual goods and services. If I am right about collapse being ahead, the whole debt system seems certain to collapse. Shares of stock seem certain to lose their value. This is concerning. The end point of all of the added complexity seems to be financial collapse, unless the system can truly add the promised goods and services.

[7] Intermittent electricity fits very poorly into just-in-time supply lines.

A complex economy requires long supply lines. Usually, these supply lines are operated on a just-in-time basis. If one part of a supply line encounters problems, then manufacturing needs to stop. For example, automobile manufacturers in many parts of the world are finding that they need to suspend production because it is impossible to source the necessary semiconductor chips. If electricity is temporarily unavailable, this is another way of disrupting the supply chain.

The standard way to work around temporary breaks in supply chains is to build greater inventory, but this is expensive. Additional inventory needs to be stored and watched over. It likely needs financing, as well.

[8] The world economy today seems to be near collapse.

The self-organizing economy is now pushing the economy in many strange ways that indirectly lead to less energy consumption and eventually collapse. Even prior to COVID-19, the world economy appeared to be reaching growth limits, as indicated in Figure 1, which was published in January 2019. For example, recycling of many renewables was no longer profitable at lower oil prices after 2014. This led China to discontinue most of its recycling efforts, effective January 1, 2018, even though this change resulted in the loss of jobs. China’s car sales fell in 2018, 2019, and 2020, a strange pattern for a supposedly rapidly growing country.

The response of world leaders to COVID-19 has pushed the world economy further in the direction of contraction. Businesses that were already weak are the ones having the most difficulty in being able to operate profitably.

Furthermore, debt problems are growing around the world. For example, it is unclear whether the world will require as many shopping malls or office buildings in the future. A person would logically expect the value of the unneeded buildings to drop, reducing the value of many of these properties below their outstanding debt level.

When these issues are combined, it looks likely that the world economy may not be far from collapse, which is one of my contentions from Section [1]. It also looks like my other contentions from Section [1] are true:

(i) Low oil prices rather than high are to be expected as the economy reaches limits,

(ii) Most fossil fuel reserves will be left in the ground because of low prices, and

(iv) If the economy is not to collapse, we need energy sources providing a larger quantity of net energy per capita to offset diminishing returns.

Regarding (iv), the available energy supply from wind and solar (net or otherwise) is tiny relative to the total energy required to operate the world economy. This issue, alone, would disqualify a Great Reset using wind and solar from truly being a solution for today’s problems. Instead, plans for a Great Reset tend to act as a temporary cover-up for collapse.

Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog



39 Comments on "Where Energy Modeling Goes Wrong"

  1. Theedrich on Sun, 14th Feb 2021 3:52 am 

    The Democrats are nothing but haters and liers. Likewise many fake Republicans whose only interest is power.  The country as a whole is oriented toward mass murder to subjugate other countries for the sake of self-glorification.

    The megalomaniacal oligarchs controling America’s bribe-ocratic government can understand neither the limits to growth nor the limits to power.  Importing an unlimited number of ThirdWorlders simply overloads the system of Western Civilization, although that seems to be the sadistic aim of the oligarchs.  They disregard consequences and promulgate “solutions” to climate change, etc. with nostrums such as windmills and solar panels to magically produce “good-paying, union” jobs.

    The Controllers are terrified of once more losing their stranglehold on the mass mind to someone like Trump, so even after losing a second impeachment fiasco, their media misfits must keep the zombies terrified of “White racism,” non-cis-White “phobias” of all sorts and other things that go bump in the night.

    But neither all the Wokesters’ horses nor all the megalomaniacs’ men will ever put Humpty together again.

  2. adamb on Sun, 14th Feb 2021 10:18 am 

    Gail talking about how everyone else does energy modeling wrong is the most hysterical rewriting of history since she was part of the gang that declared peak oil in 2008.

  3. DidYouKnowThenNowIntergerderWrestling on Sun, 14th Feb 2021 10:51 am 

    This is what I mean when say global cooling and peak oil together will add more challenge then peak oil only. This is a good example of that.

    “Energy Emergency” – Texas Power Provider Warns Of Rotating Outages As Cold Weather Tests Limits Of Grid

    https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/energy-emergency-texas-power-provider-warns-rotating-outages-cold-weather-tests-limits-grid

    Global cooling also means lower grain crop production translating into less meat protein.

  4. DidYouKnowTheyNowHaveIntergenderWrestling on Sun, 14th Feb 2021 10:55 am 

    Gail does not know what she talking about. It is mainly a financial analysis. Plenty of then everywhere. She has no understanding of supply chain and how the energy (Joule) travel through the supply chain, manufacturing,

  5. Outcast_Searcher on Sun, 14th Feb 2021 11:20 am 

    Funny how EVERY chart the collapsniks ever draw shows the same pattern. Things benerally getting better economically up to the current point, and the peak being now, and the crash coming REAL SOON NOW.

    And they’re dead wrong every single time. Decade after decade after decade.

    And they always claim they’re right THIS time, because of the usual failed modes of thinking from the past.

    Not exactly brilliant.

    At least the people looking at the LONG emergency and willing to admit any collapse from mankind vs. a giant natural event like an ELE meteor will take hundreds of years and most certainly look like instadoom.

    Science will continue to progress and people and systems WILL continue to adapt, best they can. But in the end, if the population curve can’t be made solidly negative until we get to sustainable numbers then, of course, eventual collapse is certain.

    Short term, I’m very pessimistic. But longer term when the evidence for issues like climate change and the harshness of the reality is obvious, and better science to control things like planned parenthood and policies that punish vs. reward lots of kids, I think humanity eventually turns that around.

    Meanwhile, it’s actually remarkable how well the first world has adapted overall via efficiency and better technology including lots of virtualization, to cope with less material resources per capita.

    The third world, of course, is an ongoing disaster, and to the extent they rise out of that status, the resulting consumption makes the overall problem worse re too much consumption.

    If only the collapsniks would WAKE UP to the obvious facts / history re predictions and timeframes, maybe they could start making some sense?

    But nah, you can’t get people to click on your bait if you’re talking many decades to multiple centuries, now can you?

    So the ongoing clickbait level drivel will continue re the collapseniks. What a waste of so many lives.

  6. Outcast_Searcher on Sun, 14th Feb 2021 11:24 am 

    And I see the global cooling idiocy continues. Weather isn’t climate and CLEARLY the globe is HEATING significantly over the decades, and clearly the overall trend is accelerating.

    But who needs math and science when idiocy and government handouts exist?

  7. DT on Sun, 14th Feb 2021 1:37 pm 

    I have still yet to see what will replace diesel fuel and the trucking that does all of the heavy lifting. As far as I can tell nothing exists to replace diesel fuel power.

  8. makati1 on Sun, 14th Feb 2021 3:32 pm 

    Actually, Outcast, if you are referring to Gail’s chart, you have to move her line to the right to proper scale and year. That puts it slightly to the right of the orange peak and on the down slope of many lines. The real world.

  9. SomeOfMyShittyObservation on Sun, 14th Feb 2021 4:38 pm 

    I agree with the guy above that said we need diesel to do heavy lifting. Do yo mean heavy lifting like this, pushing snow three story high.

    https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=montreal+snow+removal

    I have yet to see a tractor or snow blower power with hydrogen that could do that. Show it to me, then I will believe in hydrogen

  10. SomeOfMyShittyObservation on Sun, 14th Feb 2021 4:42 pm 

    Wrong YouTube link. This is the right one

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFhrcw4ty-4

  11. makati1 on Sun, 14th Feb 2021 5:07 pm 

    Diesel is indispensable. Trains, trucks, buses, even cars rely on it. Nothing carries the energy in so easy a form than diesel.

    Here in the Philippines, diesel is about $1 per gallon CHEAPER than gasoline as they realize the importance of trucking over cars. In the US it was just the opposite before I moved here. But then, stupid Amerikans value their cars over eating, I guess.

    BTW: How does gasoline get to the gas stations? By diesel trucks! A trucker’s strike would bring Amerika to its knees in days. Gonna happen, I think. Be patient.

  12. SomeOfMyShittyObservation on Sun, 14th Feb 2021 5:56 pm 

    Look at the interview and list. We have to crash the system to the ground, there is no other way around it. People only learn through pain, misery and death. Let’s go forward and crash this fucker on the ground.

    Michael van der Veen destroys the entire media after questioning from CBSN anchor.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=el4O9pSpX6U

    Leftists are losers with no real practical life skills and cannot survive without exploiting other people work and labor. I say, let’s crash this fucker and see what kind of real life skills progressive have. Let’s move forward with death, chaos and destruciton

  13. AllPoliticiansAreClownMakeFunOfTHem on Sun, 14th Feb 2021 6:03 pm 

    Look at this stupid piece of shit talking.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHeRgbDYHT0

  14. AllPoliticiansAreClownMakeFunOfTHem on Sun, 14th Feb 2021 6:15 pm 

    StarvingLion said : He says *****EVERYTHING***** TPTB taught me about Physics and History in K-12 and university is a GIGANTIC FRAUD….EVERYTHING!!!

    ——————————-

    I agree with that. I am happy to see that I am not only ones with science background thinking that,

  15. AllPoliticiansAreClownMakeFunOfTHem on Sun, 14th Feb 2021 6:32 pm 

    I am asking, is someone making fun of leftists and progressives, Sure look it from my point of view. This funny as fuck. This is something you would see in kindergarten.

    Bidens morning photo op walk with untouched coffee.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqx7nHc_-5g

  16. AllPoliticiansAreClownMakeFunOfTHem on Sun, 14th Feb 2021 7:48 pm 

    Everything is in the detail. The US is under martial law, meaning it is goverment by the milaty. This is becoming more and more obvious.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgJB1SYO1Wg

    Look the flags at 26:12. Look at the golden fringe.

    Q: Is the yellow fringe on some of the flags seen in the United States purely a decorative touch?

    A: No. The yellow fringe is only found on military flags, and the gold-fringed American flag is a military flag that represents Martial Law which is not subject to the Constitution. The one without is known as the peace flag of the United States and it symbolizes that the Constitution and the United States is alive and well.

    http://www.treeofthegoldenlight.com/Nesara-Constitution/GoldFringedFlags.htm

  17. AllPoliticiansAreClownMakeFunOfTHem on Sun, 14th Feb 2021 8:01 pm 

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgOcMePVlU8

    38:55 yellow fringer also. See my comment above

  18. AllPoliticiansAreClownMakeFunOfTHem on Sun, 14th Feb 2021 8:05 pm 

    The Admiralty Court Exists Because

    the U.S. is Under Martial law

    https://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/sociopolitica/master_file/martiallaw.htm

  19. AllPoliticiansAreClownMakeFunOfTHem on Sun, 14th Feb 2021 8:40 pm 

    World’s ‘solar and wind capital’ freezing due to snow ‘blanketing millions’ of solar panels

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVD49Oop9tg&feature=emb_logo

  20. AllPoliticiansAreClownMakeFunOfTHem on Sun, 14th Feb 2021 9:36 pm 

    The golden fringes where there before the inauguration. Jump 0:17. The inauguration was probably a stage act.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYp8kVq8XLo

  21. AllPoliticiansAreClownMakeFunOfTHem on Sun, 14th Feb 2021 10:17 pm 

    According to rumors Obama was behind everything. I don’T know if he and Michelle are still alive or they both have been executed. When you see Obama it could be deep fake. Notice the golden fringe on US flag behind Trump.

    Its only the beginning
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-XlJBcENl8

    I feel bad for the military guys, it is such a shit situation for them: peak oil, global cooling, extreme corruption, racial division caused by Obama. Obama cannot make one TV appearance without talking about racial issue. I hope he is dead. Same with Michelle.

  22. Cloggie on Mon, 15th Feb 2021 3:01 am 

    “Diesel is indispensable. Trains, trucks, buses, even cars rely on it. Nothing carries the energy in so easy a form than diesel.”

    I could of course waste my time by posting again and again the same videos that prove the contrary, but some people simply do not WANT to learn and prefer their moldy opinions, because they have build their collapsenik world-view around it. They will reject simple facts, because they are too painful for their agenda.

    Specially for laymen like makati and DT:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2021/02/15/diesel-is-indispensable/

    This time-saving link will be used in the future again and again to shame the local energy hillbillies into silence.

  23. Biden's hairplug on Mon, 15th Feb 2021 5:23 am 

    Mr. Kunstler clearly has less faith in the final victory (can we say Endsieg?) than our resident heeb famousdrapneaman has for the wokesters, spearheaded by the latter’s tribe:

    https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/the-trials-of-wokery/

    Fortunately, America is more than big enough for 2 or more separate countries, one or more coastal ones for the insane libtard wokesters and another in the middle for the patriots:

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/25/amerikaner/

    America in its present shape wasn’t made for all eternity, but then again, what is permanent in this universe, that is in a constant dynamic flux?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tao

    The Biden-Pelosi-Dominion regime could push the country into the abyss before Christmas.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IKcS4DlaTw

    “The History of North America: Every Year”

    The current shape was achieved around 1845. Around that same time the current 2-party system arose, the very same system that DJT just signed the death warrant of, but the corps is still above the ground. The current system no longer supports the interest of European America. The only way out is secession, a potentially terrible conclusion, although the USSR gave the good bloodless example. Not that it is likely that the good Soviet example will be followed, as the libtards don’t intent to let go of their exceptionalist, world-conquering tax farm that easily.

  24. FuckUSCanadaQuebecTrumpUSMilitaryForSpyingOnMe on Mon, 15th Feb 2021 7:06 am 

    I want to know retard Lego and guidoune Guilbault, when I am going to get justice for Quebec and Canada spying on me illegal. I want to know. I would also know all the names of the people that had access to my youtube page, google search other then you and guidoune Guilbault. Retard lego and quidoune Guilbault would do anything to protect the negro, but nothing to help Whites people. Enjoy the high price of gasoline stupid piece of shit. This is my way to say hello this morning.

  25. FuckUSCanadaQuebecTrumpUSMilitaryForSpyingOnMe on Mon, 15th Feb 2021 7:30 am 

    People. I just figured out what retard Legume and guidoune Guibault are going to do about camara story. I figure it it out. Retard Legume and guidoune Guibault will start a new comity to come up with recommendation against racism from Whites people. Retard Lego will name two negro to lead this comity.

    First negro Lionel Carmant

    http://www.assnat.qc.ca/fr/deputes/carmant-lionel-17893/index.html

    and the a negress

    https://coalitionavenirquebec.org/fr/blog/equipe/nadine-girault/

    Ca vas-tu être ça ta solution, chier sur le blanc encore une fois, mon christ dee tabarncale. I still want justice for the illegal spying done on my by you and your cabinet members. fuckin piece of shit

  26. FuckUSCanadaQuebecTrumpUSMilitaryForSpyingOnMe on Mon, 15th Feb 2021 7:42 am 

    There is two important answer I am looking for from the CAQ government.

    I would like to know, retard Lego, how many negro dicks did you suck before going into the office this morning ?

    I would like to know, guidoune Guibault, how many negro asshole did you suck this morning before going into your office ?

    I still want justice for the illegal spying done on me by you and your cabinet number.

  27. FuckUSCanadaQuebecTrumpUSMilitaryForSpyingOnMe on Mon, 15th Feb 2021 7:54 am 

    THis is fucking Quebec virtus signalling left, right and center. This Quebec human right tribual busy with shit like this:

    Supreme Court of Canada set to hear comedian’s case

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tu7WWW3jVQA

    Quebec has human right tribunal. Fair useless piece of shit, when am I going to get justice for the illegal spying done on my YouTube account, google search and sharing my personal info with other people with your cabinet. This is Quebec, a fucking loser province that deserve to burn to ground. I am supposed to follow the law as a Quebec citizen, but the government of Quebec does not have to follow the law. Burn in hell dumb mother fuckers.d

  28. FuckUSCanadaQuebecTrumpUSMilitaryForSpyingOnMe on Mon, 15th Feb 2021 8:24 am 

    UK needs more brown shit diversity, same as Quebec. We all know that brown shit diversity are good at building civilisation, think of Africa, India, China. They are really intelligent and creative. This is not a sarcasm. Come Canada and Quebec bring in more negro and brown diversity losers. We need to make our futur better.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLhH_ED6oMk

  29. FuckUSCanadaQuebecTrumpUSMilitaryForSpyingOnMe on Mon, 15th Feb 2021 8:44 am 

    You fucking piece of shit garbage politicians , does not matter which nations, will eventually by slaughter by the populace and you deserve it. You still pushing global warming shit and green shit when the world enter into a new ice age. Imagine how upset people will be once they realize you stupid piece of garbage politicians lies and don’t what to do.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FjT3Svigs_o

    See first 10 min. You deserve what is coming to you garbage politicians. You cannot hide peak oil under the blanket of global warming green reset. Stupid piece of garbage and dog shit

  30. FuckUSCanadaQuebecTrumpUSMilitaryForSpyingOnMe on Mon, 15th Feb 2021 10:10 am 

    eeeeeee

  31. makati1 on Mon, 15th Feb 2021 3:32 pm 

    Cloggie, videos prove shit! Reality, not propaganda is going to rule the future. You so desperately want to believe your techie religious bullshit that you are blind to the real world. So be it. You will find out that your future does not exist. Never will. Pain is in you future, mental and/or physical. Enjoy!

  32. Annoymouse on Mon, 15th Feb 2021 9:42 pm 

    Cloggfraud, you ALREADY waste yours, and every one else time here with your endless cloggjude nonsense well over 20 hours a day, 7 days and 365.

    I mean, for all the time and space you waste here, the only thing you have managed to ‘prove’ beyond any and all doubt, is that you are an habitual liar, fraud, and scientfic and technical illiterate. Hardly the what anyone with any sense would want on their CV. If you worked at all, which you dont of course.

    Long overdue for you to move on. Go post on defulusional davys ‘blog’ if your that lonely. Unless his ‘blog’ has been shut down for non-payment. if that turns out to be case, you can always talk to your hand.

  33. Cloggie on Tue, 16th Feb 2021 1:03 am 

    “Cloggie, videos prove shit! Reality, not propaganda is going to rule the future.”

    Makati, are you seriously suggesting that that train in Germany is NOT running on hydrogen? Or that truck and bus in Holland. Or that plane in the UK?

    Poor makati. He is so keen in keeping his 2005 collapsenik worldview alive, that he has to resort to the most desperate means he can think of: deny reality if it is presented into his face, visually.

    Makati is agitating against “his” America for 9 years now or longer and irrationally talking up commie China, as if the latter will be magically immune for the collapse (if any), makati is predicting, but in the end he is only correct in predicting the collapse of the US empire.

    For Americans, there will be life after the collapse, albeit on a considerable more modest footing and energy starving as they have been clinging themselves for too long to that greasy sludge that brought them so much geopolitical success in the past.

    Gorbachev was right when he said: “He who comes too late is punished by life”. That perfectly applies to America and its unwillingness to change course in energy matters. Peakoil.com is one of the most prominent boards in the US that recognizes the end of fossil fuel, yet not a single American steps forward to consistently and constructively promote the cause of renewables, indicating that the US is a wasteland regarding energy… except for Texas and California, where our oilman rockman WAS able to appreciate renewables from an energy perspective, but he was too much a “guy of the bottom line” and too less of a visionary to abandon the oil ship, leaving renewables to “f* Europeans” (his words), who implement almost all renewable infrastructure in the US, preparing for future European domination in energy matters, world-wide. And after that geopolitical domination, as energy is the single most important industry in modern civilization, as energy constitutes a MULTIPLIER of human labor. Energy in the US represents 150 virtual human energy slaves per capita, in Europe it is 100. Over the coming decades that number will decline in Europe, but it will decline in the US much faster, as they are too late to jump on the renewable energy train to become a global player.

    Europe and China have long recognized that fossil fuel is over and are working towards a renewable energy future. Europe has the advantage of already being a developed civilization, so they can concentrate on sustainability only, where copy-cat China wants to develop to reach western levels AND renew their energy base. That’s a lot of ambition on its plate.

  34. makati1 on Tue, 16th Feb 2021 1:27 am 

    Cloggie, China is a growing economy while the West is contracting. Asia is the future, and the West is the past tense. China can slowly cut emissions, but it will not be for a long long time, no matter what they claim.

    Yes, Amerika has a future, as a fascist police state with the government dole keeping most of the useless serfs alive, until they break on of the 600,000+ laws then they will be cut off.

    If you think life in the EU will be any better, you are really in Lala land. Enjoy your delusions while they last.

    BTW: “Makati, are you seriously suggesting that that train in Germany is NOT running on hydrogen? Or that truck and bus in Holland. Or that plane in the UK?”

    Yes! Prove it with physics and math, not some faked video. CGI can make anything look real, but they cannot change the laws of physics or math. Hydrogen is a NET LOSS in energy and comes from FFs one way or another. Those “facts”are omitted in the lie.

  35. Cloggie on Tue, 16th Feb 2021 1:35 am 

    Nothing illustrates better the desolate state of energy affairs in America than the deplorable case of Mark P. Mills, who was crowned “US energy thinker of the year (2016)”.

    This farticle…

    https://fee.org/articles/41-inconvenient-truths-on-the-new-energy-economy/#disqus_thread

    “41 Inconvenient Truths on the “New Energy Economy””

    …was nota bene posted by someone, who should have known better, Antius, as a sort of “drive-by shooting”. I spend a whole afternoon refuting these 41 “arguments”…

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/12/07/mark-p-mills-hack-for-the-fossil-fuel-industry/

    “Mark P. Mills – Hack for the Fossil Fuel Industry”

    …but unfortunately, Antius never bothered to reply to my post. Not difficult to guess why that was.

    Mark Mills perfectly represents US thinking on energy matters. Makati, DT and others are merely echo chambers of Mark Mills.

  36. Cloggie on Tue, 16th Feb 2021 1:57 am 

    “Cloggie, China is a growing economy while the West is contracting.”

    That’s because of Covid, Europe will bounce back later this year with a vengeance. Until 2020, Europe grew robustly:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/12/27/european-golden-decade-2010-2020/

    “European Golden Decade 2010-2020”

    But what do you know.

    “Yes! Prove it with physics and math, not some faked video.”

    You are a complete idiot. You are seriously suggesting that in reality this train is running on diesel, rather than hydrogen??!!

    https://www.alstom.com/solutions/rolling-stock/coradia-ilint-worlds-1st-hydrogen-powered-train

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKOmvY3X0uA

    Do you have any PROOF it is NOT running on hydrogen? Of course not. You seriously believe that a multinational like Alsthom and the German government and the EU are playing a game to fool the rest of the world?

    People like you can’t be helped. You are below the level of a toddler, who wants to keep believing in Santaclaus, but the toddler at least has his age as an excuse. That certainly doesn’t apply to you, complete senile loon.

    The Dutch have borrowed one hydrogen-train from their German neighbors to test it:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6D79B8osNGk

    The Austrians are embarking too on the hydrogen gravy train:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xA-GAyQC4qg

    “ÖBB Hydrogen Train in Austria – Coradia iLint Test at Schneebergbahn”

    But for makati it is one giant hydrogen conspiracy, a hydrogen Potemkin village and all videos are computer generated.

    People like him can’be helped.

    “Hydrogen is a NET LOSS in energy and comes from FFs one way or another.”

    So far hydrogen comes (in massive quantities) from fossil fuel, indeed. But it is also possible to generate hydrogen from renewable electricity, like in this Dutch 1 MW project, powered by 3600 solar panels:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2020/05/21/gasunie-itm-realize-1-mw-hydrogen-unit-in-groningen/

    But that’s all too difficult to understand for folks and energy illiterates like makati and DT from Declinistan.

    Warning: the video is doctored, computer generated graphics.ROFL

  37. peakyeast on Thu, 18th Feb 2021 7:32 am 

    As everybody else OPEC are outfucking their own resources and are stupid enough to think that investment in other countries that also depend on dwindling resources will help them.

    5 mio in 1970 … 35 mio today. or 7 fold increase of population which translates to 1/7 of the oil revenue per capita.

  38. BoChen on Wed, 3rd Mar 2021 12:06 pm 

    The outlook is not too good for China, because America knows its hegemony is now on the line, so it will suffer the sacrifices needed to do whatever it takes. A total chip ban and semiconductor supply chain embargo will paralyse China tech industry long enough for America to achieve AI dominance first, and since fusion and fast breeders are still 3 decades away from scaling up (at best) it wont be enough to meet the global energy shortfalls from peak oil production… the world is now an ever more crowded shrinking zero sum… and its winner takes all… with China out of the way America can proceed to continue to constrict and cannalbalize the rest of the world for a few decades longer to keep its superstructure sustained and propped up….

    Petrodollar is really just US military might holding the worlds oil hostage and forcing everyone to pay US the hegemony tax (petrodollar/US dollar as global reserve currency lets Feds print while exporting the inflation to rest of the world and taxing diluting the worlds savings)… history repeats itself

    Now China spends 3x more money buying IC chips than imports of oil… Semiconductors are the new oil in the 4th industrial revolution. US can use strongarm sanctions backed by its military preeminence to force global compliance on a full chip embargo on China…

    This will cause global upheaval but like with Covid (covert CIA biovirus) the US strategy is one of scorched earth.. and it can make the world or its allies/vassals absorb most of the pains and costs of this strategic decoupling and the rerouting of all tech manufacturing and supply chains out of China… the end goal is to collapse the Chinese economy so that to prolong the resource decline dilemma and allow America unilateral leverage to raise its hegemony tax on the world with Chinese competition now out of the way.

    In the Automated world its not about cheap labor or low costs anymore, when AI mets Peak Oil, its about getting rid of the mass eaters and China is the greatest threat to US from a raising per capita of 1.4 billion people…

    For these reasons Im sure there will be major conflict and hot kinetic interactions between US and China soon, within five years.

    Covid, like the upcoming Chip embargo, was designed to cripple the global economy on purpose, its goal is large scale “demand destruction” to offset the global Peak Oil / resource depletion issues

    America is prepared to sacrifice not only the rest of the world but also the useless eaters at the bottom rungs of the ladder of its own sheeple

    In the AI automation age low skilled workers or cheap labor is not a boom its a resource liability for Elites of Empire

    In a fully automated society America can be ran with much less people, certainly fewer than the 100 million predicted by Deagal

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