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The Next Recession Will Be A Barn-Burner

For those who enjoyed his encyclopedic 2015: Year In Review, this week we spend an hour with David Collum to ask: After processing through all of that information, what do you think the future is most likely to bring?

Perhaps it comes as little surprise that he sees the global economy headed back down into recession, one that will be deeper and more damaging than the 2008 crisis:

In 2008/9, while the equity markets when down, the bond markets went up. And that buffered an awful lot of pensions and 401Ks and endowments and things like that. And so people felt pain, but they didn’t realize that there was an offsetting gain. They did not notice that part as much, but I think the next downturn is going to be concurrent bond market collapse and equity collapse and there will be no slack in that downturn.


I think stocks and bonds are both at ridiculously high levels now. The bond market can only go down from here, right? I mean, it can keep going up for a while, but there is just nothing left to be squeezed out of it. Interest rates are at seven hundred-year lows, supposedly – they’re certainly at stupid lows, right. You have a third of Europe at negative rates… And so I think at some point the bond market’s got to collapse. It will start in the high yield market, and that is happening right now. Then it’ll spread, maybe treasuries will get bid to the stratosphere, but at some point you’ve got to get a real return. And so bonds have to sell off to get back to that real return — after all, all crises are credit crises, right,? And then equities are going to go once there’s not leverage out there for share buy backs and stuff like that.

That’s why I think the next recession is going to be a barn-burner. 

92 Comments on "The Next Recession Will Be A Barn-Burner"

  1. dubya on Mon, 28th Dec 2015 1:10 pm 

    Paulo, just so you know your quote is still relevant today. I think of my float flying job as paying the same as working at Tim Horton’s – with 9 month of vacation to plant vegetables and field crops, build greenhouses, finish the house trim, stay fit with biathlon – ski hard & shoot at least 100 rounds a week.
    I won’t get rich, but I’m not too stressed about eventually losing my job flying moose hunters. At which time the grain harvest will be much simpler.

    Collapse now & avoid the rush.

  2. paulo1 on Mon, 28th Dec 2015 1:41 pm 


    I am 60 and collapsed about 3 years ago into retirement from formal work. I still do the occasional cash job for friends, but seldom. I just want to let you know that you do not need as much money in retirement as ‘the experts’ say you do…..provided you don’t carry debt and have a little cash for emergencies. Plus, a good partner helps big time.

    My last fly-in moose hunt was almost 20 years ago. The company dropped me off with gear and an HF radio. The next day they returned with an otter to pick up my moose. Your lifestyle is a free one that very few people ever get a chance to experience. I am sure you have fished in lakes never fished in by a human….I know I did. I have eaten lunch on an extinct volcano plug, dead flat on top. I have landed in lakes at +15C OAT, and within 5 minutes saw the plane turn popsicle with frozen spray, and flown mucho hunters…mostly sheep hunters, though.

    Enjoy. I know I still miss it and never regret the opportunities. Stay careful.

  3. Davy on Mon, 28th Dec 2015 3:29 pm 

    Paulo, you are the only sane Canadian on this site who is not an extremist anti-American. Yet, even you are overreacting and bias. I posted that post to show Canada portrayed by the Canadian extremist here is not a land of “Only” milk and honey.

    Even you want to generalize and practice relative reductionism. How can you compare the US to Canada? Canada is a insignificant country of 30Mil that is locked at the hip to the US. You are just another state. Canada is insignificant backwater that has no importance on the world stage with a people that think they do.

    I used to like Canada. Hell no, I don’t want to live in a country of uptight people who blame, complain, and backstab. Canadians here hate me just because I am American and don’t criticize the US enough. I ask myself can I generalize here about Canadians but this site is heavy with Canadian participation and nearly every one of them hates and complains about Americans. I would not want to live with such a hipocritcal people who think their shit don’t stink.

    We Americans may have issues and many terrible issues but we are not two faced back stabbers. If you guys hate America so much broadcast it on TV. Have your leaders “man up” and break away from the US at all levels on policy. If there is one nation on this earth I feel sucks it is Canada.

  4. antaris on Mon, 28th Dec 2015 3:35 pm 

    Davy I don’t hate Americans but am beginning to realize you are a Goof.

  5. Apneaman on Mon, 28th Dec 2015 3:39 pm 

    Davy, if you were from Mars the dislike would be nonetheless. It’s you, not where you are from. Empire bashing would exist to the same degree whether you were born or not so stop it with the self flattery.

  6. Davy on Mon, 28th Dec 2015 4:09 pm 

    Ant, you are the other pretty decent Canadian. At least you are not a daily contributor to the hate mail. You have made some stupid wise cracks about dumb Americans like you guys are a step above. That snobbish “I am Canadian and you are a dumb American” type comment.

    Yea I am goofy because you fight goofy with goofy. You Canadians need to ask yourselves where you are going because you 30mil are on a collision course with 300mil people. Eventually the anti-Americanism is going to become overt and reactive. Now it is snailed away on backwater internet sites.

    You people need to get organized because it will be one hell of a divorce when you break away. These attitudes your people have cannot be hidden they will surface or they will fester and boil over. Too many Canadians carry this underlying hatred.

    I stand by my statements on Canadians as the most anti-American group in the world and one Americans need to be aware of. I warned some friends the other day the people will act like the like you but they really hate Americans. They thought it odd because most Americans are not aware of this hatred.

    Americans assume we are friends because you Canadians act like friends on the surface but not in your hearts. In your hearts there is real resentment and hatred. You Canadians are torn with living next to a giant that has increased your prosperity but also dwarfed you. You Canadians think you are 10 feet tall but you all are just normal humans.

    I am not discounting global anti-Americanism. I have good European credentials. There is plenty of anti-Americanism in Europe. Yet, I have not experienced the same hatred anywhere in Europe. I know Europe well having an Italian wife and Spanish daughter. I have a German lady who took care of me like a mom when I lived there. This rift coming between the US and Canada is way off the charts compared to the low level of anti-Americanism in Europe.

  7. Davy on Mon, 28th Dec 2015 4:20 pm 

    Ape you are the biggest of all the hee-man-American haters. There are consequences for actions. You broadcast a daily message of hate and contempt. I tried to be your friend even going as far as saying many Americans are disgusting to try to find some common denominator.

    I make an efforts to criticize the US in a fair and balanced way but that is not enough for you and your gang. You guys want complete and undivided hate group membership credentials.

    You guys spend every single waking moment of your boring Canadian lives hating Americans. You serf the Internet daily for new poop. Why not start an anti-American political party. Lead a movement to distance yourself from the US. Get Putin on your side and make an aliance with him.

    No, you Canadians want to pretend friendship but backstab when you are amongst yourselves and other anti-Americans. I am saying stop being a fake friends and start being enemies like you preach. If there is one thing that stinks it is two faced backstabbers.

  8. JuanP on Mon, 28th Dec 2015 5:46 pm 

    Russian Ruble at lowest point of 2015 because of low oil prices,

  9. Apneaman on Mon, 28th Dec 2015 6:26 pm 

    Thanks Davy. I appreciate being at the top of your ongoing ratings and approval system. Davy’s list – What subjects are allowed to be discussed and each commenters approval rating. Gold stars for favorites when Davy feels generous.

  10. GregT on Mon, 28th Dec 2015 6:45 pm 

    “Davy I don’t hate Americans but am beginning to realize you are a Goof.”

    Welcome to the club antaris. Somebody is losing his marbles.

  11. Davy on Mon, 28th Dec 2015 6:59 pm 

    Canadians are hilarious. You criticize them and they are all dumbfounded. They are so aloof and superior feeling that they get easily bent out of shape with any criticism. Yet, they can heep the shit out.

    The day will come where there will be consequences and the Canadians will have to choose between their pride and survival. They ridicule and laugh about this message but the day is near.

    You are outnumbered 10 to 1. It would be far better to show a little respect and decency. You can tell someone they are idiots nicely and maybe with a laugh but when you swagger and act cocky you are just looking for a fight.

    We are likely going to see civil war type situations in the states when SHTF do you really think Canada will escape this? You Canadians are setting yourself up for conflict with a giant and one you can’t win.

  12. makati1 on Mon, 28th Dec 2015 7:00 pm 

    GregT, the club is growing as realization sets in. LOL

  13. Apneaman on Mon, 28th Dec 2015 7:07 pm 

    Davy is going to lead a hit squad – seal team 7 – up to Canada and whack the whole country while were sleeping. Consequences.

  14. Apneaman on Mon, 28th Dec 2015 7:12 pm 

    Davy, I’m confused about our place on the list. There are the Russians and the Chinese and over a billion Muslims and the Mexicans and now us Canadians. Is it like a lottery system or do we get priority seating?

  15. GregT on Mon, 28th Dec 2015 7:19 pm 


    My relatives are visiting here for the holidays. They’re from Washington State, and Wisconsin. They think you are nuts.

  16. makati1 on Mon, 28th Dec 2015 7:20 pm 

    Ap, I suspect that I have a front row seat. Americans who don’t support the Empire are high on his list. Does that make Me #1? LMAO

  17. MexicanMan on Mon, 28th Dec 2015 9:00 pm 

    Davy you’re an idiot. Nobody with any brains in their head likes you. The fact that a person thinks you’re a moron is a sign of good judgement. You are consistently thee most idiotic person posting comments. I sometimes wonder how it’s possible a man could be so utterly idiotic. You’re an embarrassment. Probably a goof too. Do women actually fuck you? Voluntarily I mean.

  18. MexicanMan on Mon, 28th Dec 2015 9:02 pm 

    Re Davy leading a hit squad? Davy couldn’t fight his way out of a wet paper bag. I suspect he’s an old white guy who doesn’t get out much. Probably a shut-in.

  19. Dubya on Mon, 28th Dec 2015 11:25 pm 

    I’ve always rather liked Davy’s comments, and my only significant dislike of America is that peculiar misinterpretation of the “a militia has the right to bear arms”. The military in Canada has the same right. But somehow that doesn’t involve shooting schoolchildren.
    I also rather dislike the ‘republican’ mindset, but that is certainly not entirely restricted to America!

  20. markisha on Tue, 29th Dec 2015 2:04 am 

    debt at 0% means that somebody screwing all us up with printing from thin air.Lets print our own money.

  21. Apneaman on Tue, 29th Dec 2015 2:05 am 

    Michigan Is in the Midst of a “Massive Experiment in Unraveling U.S. Democracy”
    The austerity-on-steroids measures currently taking place in Michigan may soon be coming to a state near you.

    “Something is rotten in the state of Michigan.

    One city neglected to inform its residents that its water supply was laced with cancerous chemicals. Another dissolved its public school district and replaced it with a charter school system, only to witness the for-profit management company it hired flee the scene after determining it couldn’t turn a profit. Numerous cities and school districts in the state are now run by single, state-appointed technocrats, as permitted under an emergency financial manager law pushed through by Rick Snyder, Michigan’s austerity-promoting governor. This legislation not only strips residents of their local voting rights, but gives Snyder’s appointee the power to do just about anything, including dissolving the city itself—all (no matter how disastrous) in the name of “fiscal responsibility.””

  22. Davy on Tue, 29th Dec 2015 2:56 am 

    MexicanMan, I am a pretty good judge of a sock puppet and you sound familiar. Why have you not ever posted? No way to tell your legitimacy. Stick around and contribute and we will see who you really are and stand for. If you are worthy you can then give me battle with ideas.

    Your naked personal attack above is exactly what the anti-American gang love to get their kicks off to. It shows a lack of intellectual depth. Normally two of the above add foul language in a demonstration of their repressed adolescence. It is very easy to do unprovoked personal attacks with harmless words but much harder to consistently apply ideas and facts. The personal attacks are even easier and fun as a group like above.

  23. Apneaman on Tue, 29th Dec 2015 3:12 am

  24. Davy on Tue, 29th Dec 2015 3:42 am 

    Dubya, there are 5 regular Candians posting routine hate mail posts. I appreciate your moderation. These 5 routinely do naked personal attacks when they hear something they don’t like. They attack as a group in an attempt to censor. Their views are extremist because they do not allow a counter argument. They do the classic “denial of service attack” by a flooding the board with negative comments and attacks. What is even more effective and hilarious is the gang effort. These guys have fun at it.

    Some of the gang claim to be experts on the US. One guy lived in Georgia. Another has relatives he boasts about. This apparently gives them legitimacy in their mind to serf the net and deliver the routine hate mail. They generalize about a continent sized country of 300mil. They are cherry picking the worst with nothing good.

    To make this situation more absurd they are promoters of the Brics failed message. They are Putin worshippers. Putin is their messiah that will along with China destroy the Empire.

    I think they are disturbed and bored. They are too much on the net thinking they know it all. I am little better but it is they who are attacking and I am practicing legitimate self defense.

    I am deeply worried by the hijacking in the US of the hearts and minds of my country. I am constantly criticizing my country. This is not enough for the gang. Their message of extremism demands a tightly controlled message of blame per their beliefs.

    I effectively disproved their Bric message and I am pointing out Putin’s fatal errors. They hate this and avoid this subject. They also hate the facts out of Asia that damages their aurguments.

    The inconvience of this board for them is moderation. They like to think a moderator of their choice would be nice to take me off the board. Yet, a moderator would put an end to their rude and crude language. We would see an end to the naked personal attacks. Spamming endless repetitive links would be moderated.

    Coercion and group censorship is a bad thing especially with no code of conduct. This group feels righteously endowed with legitimacy to practice anything to achieve their ends. This is exactly what we see with the global leadership of which is only partly an American issue.

    I am fighting this at all levels. Of course at the global level I am nothing but on this board I am something or these clowns would ignore me. I am fine with being ignored too. Yet, they can’t ignore me because my ideas cut their message like a hot knife in butter.

    It is a pitty because we have many of the same interest of dooming and prepping. I have been friends with some of these guys but how can you be friends with people who daily tell you that you are an idiot and live in a doomed and cursed place?

    I am in a very good place like many other Americans. Not all of America and her people are bad. Many of the most effective of the awakened leadership of the anti-status quo are American. We are a land of free speech.

    They can claim I have no freedoms but I know better. There are some red lines you don’t cross for sure but I am free to speak on this board. Someone from China or Russia always must worry about disappearing for arbitrary reasons.

  25. markisha on Tue, 29th Dec 2015 4:15 am 

    debt at 0% means that somebody screwing all us up with printing from thin air.Lets print our own money.
    print baby print

  26. makati1 on Tue, 29th Dec 2015 4:44 am 

    Davy, your delusions are really showing. LOL

    ANY American who stands by and allows their country to continue to terrorize the world is guilty. And, yes, I am also, although getting into the street at 71 would be a joke. However, sturdy Ozark Rednecks should be out in force as it will be their turn next. Waving a flag will not protect you, even a white one.

    You have NO freedoms. Your every word on the phone, or the internet, is being tracked and recorded for their future use. Because they have not broken your door down at 3AM and terrorized your family means nothing. They control every aspect of your life with fees, permits, inspections, license’, some 600,000 laws, etc. Soon cash will be outlawed so they can track and control ALL of your purchases and sales.

    But you cannot see it because you don’t want to. Too bad. It is a common disease in America and will be it’s downfall.

  27. Davy on Tue, 29th Dec 2015 6:18 am 

    Mak, please give detailed evidence for your comment then we can talk. Otherwise your comment is just the usual blather.

    I am always open to discussing the continued deterioration of the freedoms Americans took for granted for so many years. We are experiencing deteriorations at multiple levels that is for sure.

    Your fake dramatics are nothing but a pressured comment showing a sloppy portrayal of your failed agenda. Your buddies will wake up soon so we will get another round of blathers that will attempt to support yours. You guys are actually entertaining.

    Your biggest concern should be your relationship with your boyfriend. I realize this is platonic without sex but it is a relationship you depend on for your faux farm doomstead plans. If you have irreconcilable differences with your Philipino boyfriend you are stuck in Manila. What happens when your social security check becomes problematic? I think of anyone on this board you are the one most exposed.

  28. makati1 on Tue, 29th Dec 2015 6:55 am 

    There are hundreds of articles proving my statement. You would not believe them anyway so I don’t bother. It is too obvious to those without your blinders. You do need serious psychological help.

    As for the “boyfriend” BS, grow up. I explained my partnership here and it is just that, no sex, just friendship and a business arrangement. If you didn’t bother to read it, too bad. Your loss. I don’t give a damn about what you think I should do or not do. You are nothing.

    I could make a similar statement about you and your goat fetish, but … it would not be true. Would it? LMAO

  29. Davy on Tue, 29th Dec 2015 7:29 am 

    Mak, I am asking for details for where I live. You have none. It is a big country with some places worse than others generalizing and using that square block for my circle does not work.

    I know you have idea block when you personally attack me with the usual “you need psychological help”. Those things sound good but they have no meaning on a board like this.

    If you don’t give a damn about what I think why read my comment and why the personal attack? Your boyfriend is relevant to the previous discussion becuase you were making negative claims against my living standards. This was actually a disguised personal attack complete with the regular “Ozark redneck” reference.

    The facts are you own no property in the p’s. You are not a citizen and could be deported at anytime. Your platonic man relationship is problematic because there is no contract to love and support you. He can drop you like old shoes at a whim. Knowing you as I do from this board going on three years I imagine you to be difficult to live with. It is betting odds you could end up without a faux farm. Maybe it works maybe it doesn’t.

    Now, Mak, if you are going to discuss my life I am going to discuss yours. You leave me alone I will leave you alone. There was a time when you ignored me but I guess now that you are part of the gang the temptations are too great to take some pot shots. I am fine and enjoy your attention.

  30. GregT on Tue, 29th Dec 2015 9:09 am 

    “Dubya, there are 5 regular Candians posting routine hate mail posts. I appreciate your moderation. These 5 routinely do naked personal attacks when they hear something they don’t like.
    They attack as a group in an attempt to censor. Their views are extremist because they do not allow a counter argument. They do the classic “denial of service attack” by a flooding the
    board with negative comments and attacks. What is even more effective and hilarious is the gang effort. These guys have fun at it.”

    Take your red, white, and blue blinders off Davy. It’s beyond ridiculous already. The posters here are all individuals, and most are only interested in the truth. You are attacking the messengers,
    because you don’t like the message. Doing so does not change reality, and reflects very poorly on you.

  31. BC on Tue, 29th Dec 2015 2:33 pm 

    I have lived and worked in high tech, systems consulting, and as an “economic hit man” around the US (OH, VA, NY, CA, and OR), UK, Europe, Japan, Philippines, Mexico, Argentina, and Chile, and I have worked for a firm in BC.

    That renders me in some respects a Vonnegut-like man without a country or a stateless denizen of Anglo-American empire.

    I love Canadians and have MANY Canadian friends (perhaps the reason I have an affinity for this site), but I see Canada in part as a resource colony and Mexico as a cheap labor colony for the Anglo-American imperial corporate-state. I suspect that neither Canadians nor Mexicans perceive themselves or their countries in this manner, and I would be somewhat surprised if they did.

    Hey, I still listen to tunes by Gordon Lightfoot, Neil Young, Joni Mitchell, The Guess Who, BTO, Rush, Triumph, Steppenwold, and, of course, Diana Krall. Canadians got some good vibes goin’, dudes! 😀

    So, the point is that we can assist our credibility and encourage clarity, understanding, and a more comprehensive intellectual synthesis if we each recognize and acknowledge our conditioning, experiences, and, yes, biases.

    But that’s cool; it’s what makes us interesting, albeit sometimes intolerably annoying, human apes. 😀

    ¡Feliz año nuevo, compadres! 🙂

  32. BC on Tue, 29th Dec 2015 2:43 pm 

    At the risk of being pummeled by our Canadian friends here, for the record, Davy is (you are) demonstrably an intelligent, articulate person, and I can’t help but admire his (your) willingness to go toe to toe and do the rope-a-dope with his (your) opponents.

    If nothing else, it’s not bad cheap entertainment for those of us with nothing better to do and who are easily entertained. 😀

  33. BC on Tue, 29th Dec 2015 3:03 pm 

    The Guess Who (no time left . . . no sugar tonight . . . ):

    Rush (remarkably talented trio, but not many working men/women have the luxury of “sleeping in” and going to work at 9 AM :-)):

    Triumph (talented guy, that Rik Emmett):

    Attention all planets of the Solar Federation:

    We have assumed control.
    We have assumed control.
    We have assumed control . . .

    Enjoy, you Canucks, eh? 😀

  34. GregT on Tue, 29th Dec 2015 3:08 pm 

    “I suspect that neither Canadians nor Mexicans perceive themselves or their countries in this manner, and I would be somewhat surprised if they did.”

    Most people that I know are quite aware of Canada’s status as a “resource colony” BC. It has been that way for as long as I can remember, way before NAFTA. Canadians are also inundated with American media. Television and advertising especially. Thirty years ago we all used to say that whatever was happening in the States, would happen in Canada about ten years later. I believe that the gap has closed considerably now. Other than the militarism, and the heavy duty indoctrination, there is no longer much difference between Canadians and Americans. The MSM has done an exemplary job of dumbing down the masses in both of our countries.

    One thing that does stand out for me as to our colonial status; We have American customs officials in our airports in Canada, and they carry guns. Our own customs officials in Canada were never armed, until very recently.

  35. antaris on Tue, 29th Dec 2015 4:07 pm 

    Greg I hope they give the Canadian guards better training on the guns than they do customer service. I just imported a motorcycle from Washington state into BC and it was an unpleasant half hour spent at the crossing.

  36. BC on Tue, 29th Dec 2015 5:13 pm 

    GregT, point taken, brother.

  37. Apneaman on Tue, 29th Dec 2015 5:41 pm 

    I’ve heard no shortage of empire bashing from US citizens themselves. In fact, there are many who would love nothing more than to see the US break up. Secessionist movements and proponents aplenty. Cascadia, Northern California, Many in Texas, The Deep South, Vermont, etc. Plenty. These people recognize that the claim that they are citizens a part of one big family is a fucking joke. More like indentured servants for what BC refers to as the Anglo-American imperial corporate-state. There is no future in it for the common man, just musical chairs until you and yours get thrown under the bus. The experiment of the nation state is finished. Davy seems torn. He talks quite a bit about the importance of “local”, but the minute the criticisms start it’s rally around the flag time and defender of the nation. That’s a contradiction. The last thing the Anglo-American imperial corporate-state wants is any local groups attempting to operate outside of their domain. Those paying attention see this and some regulars here have shared their run ins with the system of control. You can’t be both local and national. It’s a contradiction. Next step is the TPP and that will be the last of any sovereignty. Patriots are fucking assholes whose main concern is maintaining their emotional attachment to a ideals that disappeared decades ago. It’s gone and it’s not coming back. Of course trying to be independent of the Anglo-American imperial corporate-state has it’s price – look no further than what they did to the Confederate States when they wanted to “go local”. Same shit different century.

  38. JuanP on Tue, 29th Dec 2015 7:26 pm 

    La Florida sera libre! 😉

  39. GregT on Tue, 29th Dec 2015 7:39 pm 

    “Greg I hope they give the Canadian guards better training on the guns than they do customer service. I just imported a motorcycle from Washington state into BC and it was an unpleasant half hour spent at the crossing.”

    Guilty until proven innocent antaris. It’s what happens when the state has power over the people, rather than the people having power over the state. Our systems here in the west are in dire need of a re-boot.

  40. GregT on Tue, 29th Dec 2015 8:17 pm 

    Ricky from Trailer Park Boys kidnaps Alex Lifeson

    Bubbles and Alex Lifeson rock it out


  41. Apneaman on Wed, 30th Dec 2015 9:49 pm 

    The Wheels Just Fell Off: US Trucking Has Not Been This Bad Since The Financial Crisis

  42. Apneaman on Thu, 31st Dec 2015 5:01 am 

    Bill Holter-2016 Economic Prediction, Complete Financial Collapse

    “Published on Dec 29, 2015
    The bond market is full of debt that will never be paid back. It’s one of the biggest frauds of all. Financial writer Holter says, “Go back to 1995 and our debt in the U.S began to move up like a hockey stick. Somewhere in the mid to late 1990’s was the point of no return. We didn’t really have any hope of paying it back. In 2008, it was ridiculous, and at this point, it is beyond ridiculous. They can’t pay back the $19 trillion much less the $200 trillion, which is what the real number is when you include Social Security, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Medicare, loan guarantees and etcetera.”

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