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Peak Oil and the Long Descent Down the Mountain

Electric vehicles, plastic alternatives, electrification of industrial processes – and more – are set to cut into demand for oil. In fact, we may have already reached a peak for the amount of oil produced in a single year, an idea known as ‘peak oil’. This week, Switched On speaks with oil demand analyst David Doherty. He will tell us about what peak oil means, how it is more than an academic concept, and how oil producers are managing this change – pivoting their business models, or going all-in on black gold.

38 Comments on "Peak Oil and the Long Descent Down the Mountain"

  1. Duncan Idaho on Sat, 23rd Jan 2021 10:01 am 

    “Arguing that you don’t care about the right to privacy because you have nothing to hide is no different than saying you don’t care about free speech because you have nothing to say.”

  2. makati1 on Sat, 23rd Jan 2021 3:52 pm 

    Waste of time to watch ads for the oily industry trying to keep the suckers on the hook.

    Yes, I agree Duncan. The serfs are going to wake up someday and realize they are in the new communist gulag, called Amerika, and it will be too late.

  3. makati1 on Sat, 23rd Jan 2021 5:10 pm 

    Came across this article again and thought I would post it for Cloggie.

    “1688 Tons of material to build just 1 windmill”

    ALL 1,688 TONS require Fissile Fuels to exist, be constructed and maintained. Not going to happen in a 100% “renewables” world.

  4. makati1 on Sat, 23rd Jan 2021 5:11 pm 

    A poor site that does not allow corrections…Sigh.

    “… require Fossil Fuels…”

  5. Cloggie on Sun, 24th Jan 2021 2:21 am 

    “ALL 1,688 TONS require Fissile Fuels to exist, be constructed and maintained. Not going to happen in a 100% “renewables” world.”

    You fail to explain WHY that would be a showstopper, it isn’t.

    1700 ton of steel and concrete? So what? There is an abundance of steel and concrete in the world. And it costs little. Most of these 1700 tons go into the tower. Cost? 2% of the entire project:

    And again, it takes 10 times less energy to produce a brand-new wind tower from an old one, as it takes to produce a new wind tower from iron ore. Just pull the tower out of the sand and push it into an electric arc furnace, operated by electricity… from wind turbines!

    So, once you have an iron wind tower installed on the sea-bed, you have it quasi for all eternity, with the 2nd generation wind turbine having an EROI above 100.

    So if wind energy “won’t work”, explain to me why the world’s economy and export champ Germany, already has 50+% electricity from wind and solar?

    But you won’t accept that, because you are too much in love with your collapse vision (that miraculously doesn’t apply to China, one wonders why that is… ethnic chauvinism?).

    Whatever, wind and solar are BY FAR the cheapest ways to produce a kWh electric energy…

    …the highest form of energy from the viewpoint of man, with which you can do everything.

    Once a solid energy storage system will be in place, probably hydrogen or some derivative, nothing will stand in the way of the total victory of the renewable energy paradigm, with only fusion as a potential take-over candidate in half a century or so.

  6. Go Speed Racer on Sun, 24th Jan 2021 7:29 am 

    Howz it going, Clogster. Bad news,
    Windmill is NOT desirable way to produce kWh,
    because when the wind DOESN’T BLOW then it won’t produce any energy.
    You can’t have unreliable electric generation. An equal amount of nameplate generation must be available from a power source that ramps-up and down.

  7. Cloggie on Sun, 24th Jan 2021 7:54 am 

    I’m fine GSR, thanks.

    Regarding your signaled problem, there isn’t any.

    Look, you get your income only once per month, not every day. Is that a problem? Hell no! The trick is to put your monthly wage in a purse. It’s called money storage.

    With wind and solar it is the same thing. If the wind blows real hard and the sun shine is really fierce and you have more electricity than you can use at the moment, the trick is to put the electricity you don’t need in a storage, like a battery or a lake high in the mountains or in the form of hydrogen gas. And you get that electricity from storage if the wind doesn’t blow.

    See? No problem.

    Easy does it.

  8. Dooma on Sun, 24th Jan 2021 7:59 am 

    “Peaka” plants can be run on fairy dust, as well as the wind and sun.

    You wanna go to a real power station. There you will be schooled on the reality of “baseload” power…

  9. Cloggie on Sun, 24th Jan 2021 8:28 am 

    “You wanna go to a real power station. There you will be schooled on the reality of “baseload” power…”

    The baseload[1] (also base load) on a grid is the minimum level of demand on an electrical grid over a span of time, for example, one week. This demand can be met by unvarying power plants,[2] dispatchable generation,[3] or by a collection of smaller intermittent energy sources,[4] depending on which approach has the best mix of low cost, availability and high reliability in any particular market. The remainder of demand, varying throughout a day, is met by dispatchable generation which can be turned up or down quickly, such as load following power plants, peaking power plants, or energy storage.

    Power plants that do not change their power output quickly, such as large coal or nuclear plants, are generally called baseload power plants.[2][5] Historically, most or all of baseload demand was met with baseload power plants, however with increasing levels of renewables and advances in flexible generation this is becoming less common

    OK, you brought up the concept of “base load” and stopped there.

    The sport is to not bring up concepts, like “base-load” or “camel” or “steam locomotive”.

    Nay, the sport to make a point.

    You haven’t so far. Perhaps because you forgot or more likely because you have none.

  10. Cloggie on Sun, 24th Jan 2021 8:32 am 

    China wants to build a new dam, three times the size of the Three Gorges Dam, India be damned:

  11. Duncan Idaho on Sun, 24th Jan 2021 12:50 pm 

    “Final Tally: Trump Made 30,573 False or Misleading Claims as President. Nearly Half Came in His Final Year.”

    The Fat Boy did excel at something.
    Lets not be critical—

  12. Duncan Idaho on Sun, 24th Jan 2021 1:02 pm 

    Daddy wasn’t re-elected….so sad.


  13. Duncan Idaho on Sun, 24th Jan 2021 1:06 pm 

    The Fat Boy voters are still here:

  14. makati1 on Sun, 24th Jan 2021 2:58 pm 

    Cloggie, you are so fucked up with this “renewables” dream. Yes, there are the materials to make concrete, steel, etc, but they do not happen by magic. They all take fantastic amounts of energy to get from the ground to an installed, usable windmill. Not to mention that they are proving to be non-profitable in the long run.

    I know from experience, (I worked in a steel foundry lab) that it takes the electric energy of a small town to make a few tons of steel. Electric provided by a nuclear plant that took thousands of tons of concrete and steel to build. Ever hear of Three Mile Island?

    When you come back to the real world, you are in for a shock. Renewables are only going to be the energy produced by muscle power and eating plants and animals, not billions of solar panels, hydrogen gimmicks and huge windmills. Not even close. In case you haven’t noticed, the Great Reset is going to end your dream. Be patient.

    BTW: Try logical thinking, if you can, and facts, not propaganda from the renewables religion.

  15. Go Speed Racer on Sun, 24th Jan 2021 3:50 pm 

    Clogster your energy storage plan is impractical.
    We cannot “store” brief bursts of unreliable
    wind power. You sound like a liberal who thinks
    that biden is a legitimate president who has a
    brain and followers, and won an election.

    Your “battery in the sky” adds even more
    cost to a genuinely lousy and overpriced
    oower supply (windmill)

    Windmills are ugly as Chelsea Clinton,
    and are the ultimate vandalism of formerly
    beautiful vistas, gigantic amounts of
    littering worse than spray paint on a wall,
    is a windmill. a monument to liberals who
    think a CAT-6 computer connection will
    power your home with free power from the

    .How about people who’s lives and estates
    or farms are ruined by unexpected installation
    of a windmill (like unexpected installation of
    Joe Biden).
    One minute U got home at tranquil location,
    next moment ugly twirly bird piexe of liberal

    Most windmills don’t generate any power.
    They run them in reverse as a motor,
    a big fan to blow away the smoke from my
    couch and tire fires.

    If you want to generate power try a coal
    plant and don’t forget to toss bags
    of garbage onto the conveyor belt,
    to get extra megawatts for free,
    and dispose of moldy mattresses
    from the cleanup of the liberal
    democrat homeless camps.

    Oh U want zero CO2 emissions??
    Then build two types of nuclear reactors
    “Pebble Bed” is insanely reliable, will never
    melt down, and rather cheap to build.

    OF course with a libtard like joe biden installed
    into the white house, it will
    never happen because he will build windmills
    that don’t work, and spend more money doing it.

    the other miracle power source
    is liquid fluoride thorium reactor with
    acronym LFTR which has already
    been prototypes and run about 50 years
    ago. Works fabulously so the criminal
    scumbag politicians of DC destroyed the
    project and make sure we do criminal
    money grabs like Solyndra and windmills.

    You can Youtube some LFTR
    or Pebble Bed if you want to see some
    stuff that actually works to stop CO2

    Because it works, the mentally ill
    Pelosi Biden Clinton psycho paths will
    never allow it to be researched much less
    scaled-up as real solution.

    aside that they hate police and set police
    cars on fire and hate the Founding Fathers
    and hate she USA and it’s Constitution
    and think we need N-factorial bathrooms,
    this is why all liberals can go to hell.

  16. makati1 on Sun, 24th Jan 2021 3:55 pm 

    Amen, Go!

  17. Go Soeed Racer on Sun, 24th Jan 2021 3:55 pm 

    Duncan Idaho is jealous of Trump
    because Trump is loaded and has
    a great family and flies around in
    his own jet, with his expensive purchases
    imported trophy wife,

    So Duncan grinds his teeth and
    hates Trump in momma”s basement.

    Must be rough being a libtard in Idaho,
    none of the locals will talk to you !!
    They too busy working on farms, voting Trump,
    making money!

    Liberalism, Find The Cure.

  18. Go Soeed Racer on Sun, 24th Jan 2021 4:06 pm 

    If U don’t want to be
    mentally libtarded,
    read stuff like

    twice a day until symptoms improve
    not much likelihood of saving a liberal
    but has worked occasionally.
    Last chance is the above treatment,
    before all hope is lost.

  19. Dooma on Sun, 24th Jan 2021 6:23 pm 

    Give me a break Cloggie. I had just finished a 12-hour night shift and just wrote a quick comment. It was part light-hearted.

    That is my excuse anyway…

    Seriously though, storing large volumes of energy is still a major challenge. A “lake” is just another term for an environmentally destructive dam. And converting it to an extremely costly gas to store, seems to defeat the original purpose.

    When I studied in the operations room of a 3000MW coal-fired power station, I truly appreciated the sheer volume of energy required by us.

    I am definitely not a fan of this type of power generation. The station was filthy and the technology – antiquated. BUT, we will have to change our lifestyles if renewables are to be the dominant source of power… IMO.

    There is my point. No Camels and I didn’t have to quote anything.

  20. DT on Sun, 24th Jan 2021 10:56 pm 

    I was wondering where all the billowing smoke was coming from.

  21. Cloggie on Mon, 25th Jan 2021 1:08 am 

    It’s not easy to sell wind turbines to Anglo’s, that’s for sure. They have dug themselves so deep into an oily hole, that there seems to be no escape.

    Me, in contrast, have fond memories of the Dutch Golden Age, powered by ca. 10,000 30 kW iconic windmills, like these:

    (greatly appreciated by an American, who made the video)

    And not a drop of oil.

    These wooden windmills brought us: dry land, large three-master ships made of wooden planks, sawn by wind-power, which brought us to the other end of the world…

    …enabling us to trade products which everybody in Europe wanted to have. We invented New Amsterdam and New Netherlands, and we were so stinking rich that we could afford funding one of the most grandiose art scenes in world history, with names like Rembrandt, Vermeer and dozens of others and cities like Haarlem where the streets were paved with gold:

    And all on the basis of 10,000 wooden wind mills of 30 kW each.

    Today, we have turbines that are 500 (FIVE-HUNDRED) times as powerful as those machines that enabled the Dutch Golden Age:

    I love wind power, because I’m a Dutchman. I associate wind power with the most grandiose period in our history.

    Every Dutchman gets an orgasm from wind mills, as you can verify here:

    And we are going to do it again, create another Golden Age, again with wind.

    With this single machine we’ll have our entire fossil-fuel-based 13 GW electricity generation replaced by 2030:

    …and then go for another round to achieve true energy independence by 2050, no matter what the detractors here say.

  22. Cloggie on Mon, 25th Jan 2021 1:15 am 

    The first video should be replaced by this:

    An American in awe for Dutch ancient wind power.

    And here is new glory underway:

  23. DT on Mon, 25th Jan 2021 1:26 am 

    Good luck Cloggie.

  24. HowIsItWorkdingOutForYou on Mon, 25th Jan 2021 10:44 am 

    How is it working it out for you stupid piece of shit politicians. How is the spying and ordering full investigation on my life is working out for you Quebec, Canada and the US.

    How is it working out for you to share my personal information with others governments around the world ?

    Stupid pieces of shit and human detritus.

  25. God is a Hemorrhoid on Mon, 25th Jan 2021 10:53 am 

    The wind might not always blow but you guys do!

  26. makati1 on Mon, 25th Jan 2021 3:38 pm 

    Cloggie you seem to either live in the fictional past or the fantasy future, not the real world. Those wooden mills will not likely be possible either as the wood will be needed for heat. If there are any forests left in the EU, that is.

    The “Reset”, even if it fails, and it probably will, the world after will NOT be the one you believe in. It is going to be the leveling of the West to that of the East. Example: $60K/year income to $10K/year. Wait and see.

    Ah, but, I know you will never come into the real world because you cannot accept it. Good luck for the rest of this decade. You will need it.

  27. Anonymouse on Mon, 25th Jan 2021 10:26 pm 

    CloggedAnus has been trying without success to return to his alternate fantasy Earth for decades mak. He clearly hopes someone will invent a wormhole machine powerful enough to send him back to the alternate reality he ordinally came from. In lieu of this, he prefers to spend what little time he has left in this version of Earth, bloviating about matters on which he has little, or no knowledge of. Namely, science, technology, and engineering. Among others.

    While I am sure he thinks he at least talks a good game on these matters, the reality says otherwise. For all that, he never seems to tire of parading his ignorance here non-stop.

    Best to ignore him altogether. He is a long running joke that was never funny to begin with.

  28. Cloggie on Tue, 26th Jan 2021 12:56 am 

    “Quaack, it is not going to work, quaack!”

    I see that the local chapter of the collapse society has rolled out of bed again and crawled to the computer, to burb the message of defeatism and fundamentalist loserdom into the recesses of the internet.


    “Advent Big Battery – Tesla Megapack Moss Landing, CA”

    Note that Elon Musk is now the richest man in the world, which should tell you a thing or two about the potential of renewable energy. The Biden-Dominion regime will at least give a big boost to renewables as well.

  29. Cloggie on Tue, 26th Jan 2021 1:06 am 

    For the first time in history, the contribution of renewables have surpassed those of fossil fuel in electricity generation in Europe:


    And it is only 2021.

    “Yabut, you need fossil fuel to support renewables! and, and, and solar and wind are less than 1% share electricity”, say the peak-oil medievalists and local renewable energy deplorables.

    No, you don’t.


  30. Cloggie on Tue, 26th Jan 2021 2:24 am 

    Are lithium-ion batteries really a good idea for utility scale storage?

    “120 MW CAES Storage in Israel”

    According to this source…

    Calculations conducted so far have shown the installed cost of long-duration storage to be one-tenth of the cost of lithium-ion battery storage.

    CAES storage efficiency in the Israeli project 75-81%. CAES doesn’t need any scarce resources like lithium.

    Sorry, Elon, no cigar.

  31. Cloggie on Tue, 26th Jan 2021 2:44 am 

    Jinko Solar building solar mega-factory with annual output of 20 GW, which is gigantic:

    Solar panels cost less than 100$, so China is in the production lead. The factory will run exclusively on solar and hydro-power.


    The local collapsenik society is a sect.

  32. makati1 on Tue, 26th Jan 2021 3:26 am 

    Cloggie, are you some deprived teenager stuck in your mom’s basement with some antiquated PC as your only friend? You are obsessed with techie propaganda. Get a life!

    Trying to put me down because you cannot see reality is YOUR problem, not mine. I have lived thru a number of techie dreams that failed or never even got going. hare are a few:

    Try the big lie “Nuclear electric will be so cheap, it will not even be metered.” LOL

    Then there are the “flying cars”, the “electric roads” that allow your car to drive by buried cables, and the always there … FUSION POWER! Nuclear fusion began in 1920. (100 years ago!) First devices in 1940. (80 years ago!) And on and on forever. Always just 10 years away. Send pallets of $$$$. Soon, all the engineers working on the problem will be retired, or dead.

    The future is NOT going to be even close to the easy lifestyle Westerners are used to. Work will take on a real meaning when your sweat is the only way to keep from starving. Be patient. The “Great Reset” is speeding up the change.

  33. Cloggie on Tue, 26th Jan 2021 3:53 am 

    “Cloggie, are you some deprived teenager stuck in your mom’s basement with some antiquated PC as your only friend?”

    Eh, no, I’m mid-sixties, have the latest computers and my parents are unfortunately long gone. In the water-rich swamp Netherlands, basements are for the adventurous. My house is paid-off.

    Name-calling can’t pass as an argument, unless you have no arguments, like in your laymen’s case.

    Can’t remember ever having advocated nuclear energy, flying cars, electric roads, fusion power. Straw man.

    You should finally get an education in physics, rather than keep posting the same old stale links that tell what you want to hear.

    With the new Biden-regime, even America has joined the ranks of the rest of the world and will adopt the renewable energy paradigm.

    You in contrast are like those Japanese soldiers who kept hiding in the jungle of East-Asia, in the conviction that WW2 was still on… in 1975.

    This is no longer the 2005 peak oil scare, as defined by laymen like Heinberg or Kunstler or ASPO. The adults have taken over.

  34. Cloggie on Tue, 26th Jan 2021 12:27 pm 

    EU announces 12 billion Euro R&D program for home-grown battery production for 6 million cars per year.

  35. Anonymouse on Tue, 26th Jan 2021 5:50 pm 

    CloggedAnus is 60IQ, give or take, likely resides somewhere in the UK (hes not ‘dutch’ by any stretch, and does own much of anything as repeated requests for proof-of-ownership of ANY form of green-tech no matter how trivial or how you define the term, has to date, yielded exactly zero evidence Cloggedcolon here owns so much as a solar-powered calculator.

    Long past time for you to move on ‘cloggo’.

  36. print baby print on Wed, 27th Jan 2021 12:05 am 

    Cogbetter buy a buckets to store your electricity

  37. makati1 on Wed, 27th Jan 2021 2:35 am 

    Cloggie sucks up the techie porn by the buckets. Doesn’t think beyond the propaganda they spew. Addiction to the “renewables” idea has fried his brain. Not all drugs come in pill or syringe form. Some warp your mind thru your ears and eyes. ^_^

  38. peakyeast on Thu, 28th Jan 2021 6:00 am 

    If necessary society could easily adapt to intermittend power. It is all a matter of wanting to and not have this hysterical need for maximum speed all the time.

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