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Oil at $100?: Supercycle predictions divide veteran traders

Oil at $100?: Supercycle predictions divide veteran traders thumbnail

Two of the biggest banks on Wall Street are calling a new “supercycle” in oil, with JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs both predicting prices will soar when the pandemic abates.

The most bullish forecast has international crude prices staging a comeback towards the US$100-a-barrel region — a level not reached since 2014. The expected surge is predicated on the belief that fiscal stimulus will boost consumption just as investment in new production has been sucked out of the industry. Such a disconnect between demand and supply, fuelling a lasting surge in prices, are the basic conditions of a so-called supercycle.

It would transform conditions in the oil sector, which was hammered last year by the COVID-19 hit to demand and doom-laden predictions about what the widespread embrace of electric vehicles will mean for the market.

“We’re going to be short of oil before we don’t need it in the years to come,” JPMorgan’s head of oil and gas, Christyan Malek, told clients on a conference call last week. “We could see oil overshoot towards, or even above, US$100 a barrel.”

Brent crude, the international benchmark, is up more than two-thirds since the end of October to US$63 a barrel, driven by vaccine optimism and production cuts by leading exporters.

Veteran Goldman Sachs analyst Jeffrey Currie, who was a key voice in oil’s last supercycle between 2003 and 2014, told the Financial Times he believes there are real risks that oil trades in the US$80 range “or even higher this year.”

But this time it is not the emergence of an energy-hungry China that he predicts will boost consumption, but stimulus spending by governments around the world, such as the US$1.9-trillion proposed in the U.S. by the Biden administration — including for “green” infrastructure.

We could see oil overshoot towards, or even above, US$100 a barrel

Christyan Malek, JPMorgan’s head of oil and gas

“This type of stimulus aimed at middle and lower class income (households) creates significant, commodity-intensive consumption, as they have a much higher propensity to consume,” Currie said. “These people don’t drive Teslas. They drive SUVs.”

He draws a parallel with President Lyndon Johnson’s “Great Society” initiative in the 1960s, arguing that the boost it gave to the U.S. middle class — and the accompanying growth in oil consumption — helped set the stage for the oil price spikes of the 1970s, when Middle Eastern oil producers were able to squeeze supplies to the U.S.

Arjun Murti became one of the most famous oil analysts of the last supercycle after he made the call in 2005 that oil could go above US$100 a barrel, while working alongside Currie at Goldman Sachs. He later predicted it would go on to US$150-US$200 a barrel, before it topped out at US$147 on the eve of the financial crisis.

Now working as an adviser and energy company board member, he thinks supercycle calls may prove “premature,” but he can imagine scenarios where oil prices strengthen significantly. “There are still some hurdles to cross but a lot will be decided by the strength of demand,” Murti said.

Before the pandemic, global oil demand was around 100 million barrels a day. It fell to an average of around 90 million bpd last year and analysts predict it is unlikely to reach pre-pandemic levels until 2022, once vaccine rollouts allow a wider resumption of long-distance air travel.

New SUVs at a GM assembly plant in Ontario.
New SUVs at a GM assembly plant in Ontario. Photo by Chris Helgren/Reuters files

Murti argues that if oil demand grows by around 500,000 bpd in the coming years, it would be insufficient to create a supply gap. However, if that growth ramped up to 1.2 million to 1.4 million bpd — as it did following the 2014-15 price crash — that could spark a new supercycle.

Increases in production could prove the big stumbling block for the bulls. Crude supply has taken a hit during the crisis, with the U.S. losing around 2 million bpd of production in the last year owing to lower prices. But additional shortfalls required to create a supply gap are less obvious. Supply cuts by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other OPEC+ members have created about 8 million bpd of spare capacity.

“In the short term there isn’t really any shortage of oil and we’re seeing countries like the UAE planning to boost capacity,” said Patrick Gibson, director for global oil supply at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. “However, in the oil industry, it’s always difficult to time the arrival of supply at the right point.”

Pierre Andurand, who made his name in the last supercycle by placing big long-term bets on higher prices, is more cautious this time. Last year his more aggressive fund earned more than 150 per cent betting on oil’s crash below US$20 a barrel.

“The path of the oil price is very much in OPEC’s hands for this year, depending on how much supply they choose to release back on to the market,” Andurand told the Financial Times.

“I believe the path of oil prices is likely to be upward for 2021 and the following years, but there are also many elements that could derail that move up,” he added, citing the return of Iranian oil, the pace of producers’ supply increases, and the risk that COVID-19 vaccines struggle against variants of the disease.

Even the bulls think any supercycle could be shorter than last time around. Demand growth could start to flatten as early as 2025, in Currie’s view. JPMorgan analysts are bullish until later in the decade, though they too forecast a peak in demand, eventually.

Skeptics include Andy Hall, one of the most successful oil traders of the last supercycle — and now retired from day-to-day trading. The oil and gas industry is in “terminal decline,” he said. “Perhaps this dead cat can bounce a few more times. But would that be a supercycle?”

FT



36 Comments on "Oil at $100?: Supercycle predictions divide veteran traders"

  1. Cloggie on Sat, 27th Feb 2021 12:22 pm 

    “Netherlands dethrones UK and Germany as Europe’s new wind power king”

    https://www.rechargenews.com/wind/netherlands-dethrones-uk-and-germany-as-europes-new-wind-power-king/2-1-969584

    Sorry for the plug, but we can’t remain modest for ever.

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2021/02/26/global-offshore-wind-champs-2020/

    The Dutch Lion roars.lol:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMSbGvzDTls

  2. DT on Sat, 27th Feb 2021 4:25 pm 

    Cloggie what is replacing diesel power in the Netherlands? How much infrastructure is in place for the replacement of diesel power? You know things like trucking,shipping,heavy machinery for road building and maintaining things like wind turbines? Hmmm that would be……wait for it……NA DA.

  3. Dredd on Sat, 27th Feb 2021 5:30 pm 

    … but … but … Toto … If The Straw Man Had A Brain

  4. FamousDrScanlon on Sat, 27th Feb 2021 8:21 pm 

    clog, congrats. How fitting that Europe’s reigning Windbag King announces Eurolands newest Wind Power King.

  5. Adriano on Sun, 28th Feb 2021 12:37 am 

    for cloggie all forms of energy are equal, he also believes that Elon powers his rockets to Mars with batteries

  6. Cloggie on Sun, 28th Feb 2021 4:16 am 

    “Cloggie what is replacing diesel power in the Netherlands?”

    Here is DT again with his eternal cluelessness. Especially for him, I wrote this post some time ago in order to avoid wasting my time on him:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2021/02/15/diesel-is-indispensable/

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2020/11/26/massive-hydrogen-push-underway-in-europe/

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2021/02/06/yabut-to-get-wind-power-you-need-oil/

    Not that DT will EVER pick this up; he is fundamentally unwilling to learn something new.

    “How much infrastructure is in place for the replacement of diesel power? You know things like trucking,shipping,heavy machinery for road building and maintaining things like wind turbines? Hmmm that would be……wait for it……NA DA.”

    There is a lot of time between now and eternity. In that time, a lot can happen. What you need is a roadmap, to support you during your journey, just like in a real journey. We have that roadmap in Europe:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_policy_of_the_European_Union

    But DT reacts like a woman: “if it doesn’t exist now, it will never exist”. DT loves waiting, 9 months or 9 years or 9 decades… because waiting doesn’t take any effort. DT is characterized by total passiveness and lack of intellectual curiosity, let alone living up to challenges. Conventional oil and gas are running out, so something new needs to be invented. DT (and most other Americans, including empire dave of former fame and talmudturk):

    “it won’t work”

    This attitude is the best sign to know that the American empire is over. With such an attitude you can’t dominate anybody.

  7. Adriano on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 12:01 am 

    cloggie, you can’t replace one energy form with another as if they were lego bricks, but this is out of what you want to believe. Pride is satanic.

  8. Cloggie on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 12:30 am 

    “cloggie, you can’t replace one energy form with another as if they were lego bricks, but this is out of what you want to believe. Pride is satanic.”

    Well, not like lego plug-and-play, you do indeed need a complete systems overhaul, but give me one example of a function in modern society that can’t be run on either electricity or hydrogen?

    “Pride is satanic.”

    Pride is the antidote to defeatism. Defeatism is the death of any society. You must have a belief. Pride is like the stick that the vine needs to grow upwards and blossom.

  9. DT on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 11:18 am 

    ” but give me one example of a function in modern society that can’t be run on either electricity or hydrogen?” Cloggie Give me an example of Diesel power being replaced at scale by wind and hydrogen. You can not do it because there is no replacement for diesel power at scale. Are all of the fueling stations being converted to Hydrogen? How about all of the trucking that needs hydrogen fuel? Are all of the heavy diesel powered equipment going strait to battery power at scale as we speak? All of those boats used to build and maintain wind turbines in the ocean are they all going to battery power and hydrogen engines? If so how many are in service?

  10. Cloggie on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 12:08 pm 

    “Cloggie Give me an example of Diesel power being replaced at scale by wind and hydrogen. You can not do it because there is no replacement for diesel power at scale. Are all of the fueling stations being converted to Hydrogen? How about all of the trucking that needs hydrogen fuel? Are all of the heavy diesel powered equipment going strait to battery power at scale as we speak?”

    ALL major truck companies in Eurasia and perhaps in the US too, have a program to transition towards batteries and hydrogen. They have too, because of the EU energy policies. By 2050 fossil fuel needs to be gone, including diesel.

    https://www.daf.com/nl-nl/over-daf/duurzaamheid/alternatieve-brandstoffen-en-aandrijflijnen/batterij-elektrische-voertuigen

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7gPfhBbMlU

    https://www.scania.com/ch/de/home/experience-scania/news-and-events/News/archive/2020/09/electrification.html

    https://www.volvotrucks.nl/nl-nl/trucks/trucks/volvo-fe/volvo-fe-electric.html

    https://www.mercedes-benz.com/en/vehicles/trucks/eactros-heavy-duty-electric-truck/

    Enfin, I assume you know how to google yourself.

    https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/event/workshop/heavy-goods-vehicles-workshop

    “Decarbonisation of Heavy Duty Vehicle Transport: Zero Emission Heavy Goods Vehicles”

  11. DT on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 12:23 pm 

    Cloggie Again give me examples of diesel being phased out at scale. All of the info you give is either speculation out to the magic year 2050 or just plain experimental situations. The reason you can not show the so called transition from FF is because it is not happening at scale. Meaning putting up alt fueling stations in place of what we have now commonly called gas stations.

  12. Biden's hairplug on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 12:54 pm 

    “Again give me examples of diesel being phased out at scale.”

    What does that mean, “at scale”?

    Here is an example, the famous internet:

    https://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/14/2014/02/11-internet-use-over-time.jpg

    Before 1995, the public had no access to it. I was an early adopter with my CompuServe account in 1996.

    25 years later, everybody in the developed world and beyond has internet access.

    Won’t be different with hydrogen or electro-trucks. They already exist, it doesn’t need to be proven that it can be done. On top of that we have legislation in Europe that fossil fuel needs to be gone completely by 2050. And the EU is backed by the Paris Accord, even America has now signed.

    When I had my first CompuServe internet account I had a baud rate, over the phone of 1200 byte/sec. Now I can download 1 GB in a few seconds, that’s a factor of 100,000 faster. It’s called evolution or progress or development.

    But if you are content in believing that it is not going to work, fine. One competitor less. And potentially a future colony.

  13. DT on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 1:14 pm 

    So all of the gas stations, that would be tens of thousands, are beeing systematically replaced at this time? Along with all of the tens of thousands of trucks and heavy equipment are no being replaced with battery or hydrogen power? If this transition is going to happen by 2050 they better start soon. Because the numbers (at scale) do not indicate that diesel power is being phased out. Yes there are some electric cars out but no where near the millions that need to be replaced. Your comparison of the energy so called transition to what we have seen in the computer industry is a poor one. The base question of what will replace diesel power is and has so far still not been answered.

  14. FamousDrScanlon on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 1:26 pm 

    clog, your Alt fantasies are truly inspiring & make me want to sing with joy.

    clog’s alt energy will come out tomorrow
    Bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow
    There’ll be Alt’s
    Just thinkin’ about
    Tomorrow
    Clears away the cobwebs, and the sorrow
    ‘Til there’s none
    When I’m stuck with a day
    That’s gray, and lonely
    I just stick out my chin
    And grin, and say, oh
    clog’s alt’s will come out tomorrow
    So ya gotta hang on’til tomorrow
    Come what may
    Tomorrow tomorrow
    I love alt’s
    Tomorrow
    Alt fantasy is always a day a way

    https://youtu.be/Yop62wQH498?t=14

    always a day a way always a day a way always a day a way…..and always will be.

  15. FamousDrScanlon on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 1:33 pm 

    It’s not just a cycle…..it’s a SUPER cycle which is way-more better-best.

    As for ‘veteran traders’ they’re not just cock suckers, they’re SUPER cocksuckers which is way-more better-bes.

  16. Cloggie on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 2:53 pm 

    “Yes there are some electric cars out but no where near the millions that need to be replaced.“

    https://cleantechnica.com/2021/02/27/14-of-european-vehicle-sales-were-plugin-vehicle-sales-in-january-5-6-were-full-electrics/

  17. FamousDrScanlon on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 3:08 pm 

    clog, you don’t know fuck all about the ‘Paris Accords’ or any COP conference.

    Pure theatre, sponsored by some big time polluting corporations.

    Pairs along with the other COP’s & the IPCC & almost all the big Enviro NGO’s are gate keepers.

    Everything you need to know is in the following article which includes a video.

    November 20, 2020

    Expert IPCC Reviewer Speaks Out

    “The upcoming 26th COP (Conference of the Parties) to be held November 2021 in Glasgow is on the docket for scientists and bureaucrats, as well as big moneyed interests, to knock heads in a formal setting to discuss the state of the planet. If all goes according to plan, like past COPs, powerful economic interests will sabotage what would otherwise be a rather dim forecast of a planet in various stages of collapse, some terminal.

    We’ve seen this act (COP) repeat over and over, ever since COP1 in Berlin in 1995, as each successive COP-ending-ceremony finds the Parties congratulating each other, slaps on the back, for one more successful climate conference of 20,000-30,000 able-bodied professionals wiped-out from overconsumption of Beluga caviar and Domaine de la Romanee-Conti, but subsequently carbon emissions increase the following year, and every following year thereafter. What’s to congratulate?

    More to the point, the annualized CO2 emissions rate is +60% since COP1, not decreasing, not going down, not once. After 25 years of the same identical pattern, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that the take-home-work from all 25 COPs mysteriously turns into the antithesis of the mission statement of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.”

    https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/11/20/expert-ipcc-reviewer-speaks-out/

    COP’s are a fucking joke & so are you for trying to pass 1 off as evidence of your alt/green utopia when they are unquestionably evidence for the exact opposite.

    Take every single effort to slow climate change from individuals, Gov’s & NGO’s over the last 30 years and combine them – what’s the result? Something so insignificant that it doesn’t show up in any statistics that matter. They’re all hockey sticks.

    The humans are so far beyond the point of no return that if you stop & look over your shoulder you can’t even see it.

    Ok, next comes the part where you try & change the subject by painting me as a nihilist doomer & a bunch of other derogatory terms – as if that changes anything.

    In my book you & the other alt-green hope pimps are the biggest assholes because there is no cut more cruel than false hope.

    No biggie. Hope has always been an easy sell & more times than not the hopeful seek out someone – anyone who will tell them what they want to hear. Yup, they’re assholes too.

    There is no escape except death, so it looks like we’re all going to burn together – Doomer, dreamers & deniers.

    Covid slowdown is inconsequential.

    Daily CO2

    Feb. 28, 2021 = 416.67 ppm

    Feb. 29, 2020 = 414.12 ppm

    January CO2

    Jan. 2021 = 415.24 ppm

    Jan. 2020 = 413.37 ppm

    January Temperature

    2021 = 7th warmest Jan. since 1880

    1893 = coolest Jan. since 1880

    https://www.co2.earth/

    Gate Keepers

    The Fossil Fuel Industry Is Bankrolling the Paris Climate Talks

    “This week and next, roughly 40,000 diplomats, activists, policy experts, and journalists are gathering in the French capital for a round of high-stakes negotiations aimed at slowing climate change. They’re packed into a regional airport that, as described by our Climate Desk partners at the New Republic, has been converted to resemble a cross between the United Nations headquarters building, Disney World’s Epcot Center, and a natural history museum.

    For two weeks, all these people need to be fed, housed, transported, entertained, and equipped with space to work. Unsurprisingly, it’s an expensive undertaking—budgeted by the French government at nearly $200 million, according to EurActiv France. About one-fifth of that tab is being picked up by private corporations.”

    “Those corporations are able to say they’re part of the solution just because they write a check,” Jesse Bragg said.”

    https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2015/12/climate-change-summit-paris-cop21-fossil-fuels-sponsors/

  18. FamousDrScanlon on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 3:28 pm 

    clog, tell me another happy bedtime story.

    We are Strip-Mining Life While We Drink “Bright Green Lies”

    “Industrial civilization is strip-mining Life. Human economies are suffocating our remaining natural living systems. As a result, wildlife and insect populations are plummeting, while humans, pets, and livestock numbers are soaring.[1] But some of the newest threats to the natural world are from unexpected sources: wind turbines, solar panels, energy storage, and other “green technologies.”

    “An astounding new book BRIGHT GREEN LIES: How the Environmental Movement Lost Its Way and What We Can Do About It — by Derrick Jensen, Lierre Keith, and Max Wilbert — asserts that renewables and other “bright green deals” will not salvage us from our hot mess. Instead, the effort to remake our energy systems will further eviscerate the natural world. And “green tech” will fail miserably to meet any semblance of the fossil fuel reductions needed to keep a livable climate.”

    “What now counts as “sustainable” technology is just a new iteration of our extractive economy’s endless need for metals, minerals, and materials. To add insult to injury, “eco” tech is not displacing fossil fuels, but only piling on top. Greening our industrial system is a delusion, plain and simple.

    If we believe we can have our industrial civilization and “clean energy” to drive it, we are drinking “Bright Green Kool-Aid.”

    https://www.tree-of-life.works/bright_green_lies

    No matter what, all remaining FF energy (positive EROEI) will be burned, so who gives a fuck how it gets used?

    As long as there’s enough energy to keep me in ham sandwiches & ice cream for another decade is all I care about.

    Keeping Pornhub up & running would be nice too.

  19. Biden’[email protected] on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 4:02 pm 

    “clog, tell me another happy bedtime story.“

    https://www.tijd.be/opinie/algemeen/laat-vlaanderen-aansluiten-bij-nederland/10247752.html

    “De Tijd” (Time) is the largest Dutch language weekly magazine of Belgium. Their conclusion: Belgium as a country is finished. Let’s admit defeat and seek reunification with one of the most succesful nations in Europe (their words, I leave it to you as an exercise to figure out which country that could be). If you can’t, do right-click in the article > translate to English.

    The consequence would be the formation of a country that would push Canada out of the G8. Sorry bout that.

  20. makati1 on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 4:11 pm 

    Cloggie NEVER looks at the whole picture. He assumes…that building a billion plus electric vehicles, equipment, etc., is going to happen overnight, along with the total infrastructure to do that and to power them…etc. Not to mention the $$$$$ that that would cost when the whole world is deep in debt and a YUGE Depression that will never end. It took 100+ years to build the system we use now. Anyone who believes that can change, even in 10 years, is a fool. But then, Heaven and Hell is real to many today. Sigh!

  21. FamousDrScanlon on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 8:35 pm 

    Sorry bout what?

    Another one of your dumb future fantasies?

    Not even Canadians, the worlds greatest apologizers, will apologize for something that has not happened. Perhaps it’s genetic. Are you sure your real dad is not a Canadian solider who liberated the Netherlands from Nazi tyranny then humped your grateful mom?

    95% of what comes out of your Dutch hole is dumb future fantasies.

    Henceforth you shall be known as
    ‘Tomorrow Boy’… Eurolands first superhero.

  22. FamousDrScanlon on Mon, 1st Mar 2021 8:47 pm 

    Tomorrow Boy, here’s one with much Dutch love.

    Doughnut Economics Boots Capitalism Out

    “The rapid rise of Covid-19 has spawned a renaissance in socio-economic thinking about the best way to face the future, as mayors of cities throughout the world search for answers in the face of declining revenues while society demands more urgent help.

    Eureka! Amsterdam, the Venice of the North, discovers doughnut economics. With a click of fingers, it abandons the major tenets of the neoliberal brand of capitalism’s insatiable thirst for growth to infinity at any and all costs. This city where capitalism spawned via the Dutch East India Company first issuing shares in 1602 has turned agnostic on 400 years of embedded capitalism.

    In the face of a virus that has turned the world to a state of reflection of how to best cope, new ideas bring new hope. After all, the virus has exposed the utter fragility, vast inequity, and incongruity of the engulfing neoliberal machine as conceived under the auspices of Reaganism/Thatcherism over four decades ago. Nowadays, its results are aptly summarized by the universally accepted epithet “The One Percent.”

    Meanwhile, Covid-19 has exposed the radical cockeyed dynamics of infinite growth at any and all costs with profits of billions, and even trillions, atop lopsided pyramids of a sick and hungry forlorn bourgeoisie, analogous to late 18th century France when thousands of aristocrats, holding onto their heads, fled the streets of Paris.”

    https://www.counterpunch.org/2021/01/31/doughnut-economics-boots-capitalism-out/

  23. Cloggie on Tue, 2nd Mar 2021 2:00 am 

    Cloggie NEVER looks at the whole picture. He assumes…that building a billion plus electric vehicles, equipment, etc., is going to happen overnight, along with the total infrastructure to do that and to power them…etc. Not to mention the $$$$$ that that would cost when the whole world is deep in debt and a YUGE Depression that will never end.

    Where did I say that the transition will happen “overnight”? What part of “30 years” don’t you understand? Where did I advocate 1 billion cars?

    Cars are a pestilence. I’m against private car ownership. The beauty is we don’t need private car ownership. We can replace it with a national autonomous car robot, in combination with more working from home (Thank you Covid-19 & IT!).

    And since when do depressions never end? The world had a terrible depression in the thirties, but got over it a decade later. Russia was in a terrible depression 1991-2000, until Vlad appeared on the scene (your nemesis b.t.w.) and multiplied Russian GDP with a factor of 11 in merely 20 years.

  24. Biden's hairplug on Tue, 2nd Mar 2021 2:34 am 

    “analogous to late 18th century France when thousands of aristocrats, holding onto their heads, fled the streets of Paris.”

    Yeah, or these fat cat jews, fleeing the streets of Berlin and the rest of continental Europe…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hvtXuO5GzU

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/27/amsterdam-deportations/

    …to Anglostan, where they continued their “noble work” of destroying the host society as a little Danke schön, a labor we in Greater Europe can now reap the benefits from.

    https://www.israelhayom.com/2020/10/25/number-of-jews-in-europe-falls-to-1000-year-low/

    “Number of Jews in Europe falls to 1,000-year low”

    This and nothing else is why continental Europe will eventually gain the upper hand over the Anglos, because of Anglo death by kosher “suicide” (murder rather). Thanks Dolfie, you won after all:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/24/lord-heseltine-suggests-brexit-allowing-germany-win-world-war/

    “Lord Heseltine suggests Brexit vote allows Germany to win WW2”

    A desperate European-America will fall into our continental European hands like a ready-fried chicken. Keep up the good work, George Soros!

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2019/10/24/stephen-steinlight-was-right/

  25. DT on Tue, 2nd Mar 2021 8:34 am 

    Cloggie you still have not explained how diesel fuel will be replaced and by what.

  26. Cloggie on Tue, 2nd Mar 2021 10:29 am 

    Overview of large list of hydrogen electrolyzer projects in Europe, culminating in the first 1 GW electrolyzer in Denmark (where else?) in 2026:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2021/03/02/electrolyzer-project-pipeline/

    After 2026, things will really speed up with 10 GW+ projects:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2020/12/29/global-top-13-green-hydrogen-projects/

    1 kg hydrogen has 33.6 kWh, which is almost 3 times as much as 1 kg petrol.

    In the desert, 1 kWh solar electricity costs 1,24 cent.

    Hence, the electricity input cost of 1 kg hydrogen is merely 56 cent, assumes a PEM-electrolyzer with 75% efficiency. That is almost negligible.

    The largest share of the cost of green hydrogen will be the amortization of the electrolysis equipment. Expect that to come down significantly in the coming years and everybody and his mother will be busy optimizing the devices. Very promising is high-temperature electrolysis:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/12/11/high-temperature-electrolysis/

  27. FamousDrScanlon on Tue, 2nd Mar 2021 2:05 pm 

    Thank you Tomorrow Boy.

    It warms my heart to know there will be loads of alt energy infrastructure for catastrophic run away climate change to smash the shit out of.

    If any of it is as water intense as fossil fuel processing & most other industrial processes, including agriculture, then much of it could end up abandon.

    Massive & necessary water requirements for almost all techno industrial processes is rarely discussed in spite of the fact it’s dwindling while the humans keep squirting out a net 225,000 new thirsty consumers per day.

    Big AGW Jacked weather events & fires get all the press, but it’s the un-glamorous knock on effects which will cause the big suffering & deaths.

    I’ll wager humans have gone to war over water more than any other resource with much more to come.

    There’s not enough time, water & energy for the build-out you’re touting.

    There’s been plenty of attention given to embedded energy in all the things humans process & build & consume. Start looking at embedded or ‘virtual’ water – it’s not a hopeful picture.

    The Hidden Water in Everyday Products

    “Hidden water is an important part of water use. It may not be visible, but millions of gallons of virtual water go into making the consumer goods Americans buy, use and throw away. Manufacturing everyday materials like paper, plastic, metal and fabric takes water – a lot of it.”

    https://www.watercalculator.org/footprint/the-hidden-water-in-everyday-products/

    Tracing embedded water in US meat and ethanol supply chains

    “Water is embedded in everything we eat. There’s water inside a banana, a leaf of lettuce, an ear of corn — but the most water, by far, is in meat. So swearing off meat should be a great way to lower your water footprint, right? Well… not exactly.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3WkWEf120U

  28. makati1 on Tue, 2nd Mar 2021 2:10 pm 

    As I said above,Cloggie does not, or refuses to, see the total picture. But then, if his income depends on his not seeing/accepting the real world, nothing will change his mind, until…

    That “until” is fast approaching.

  29. makati1 on Tue, 2nd Mar 2021 2:19 pm 

    “It takes an estimated 39,090 gallons of water to make a car. It’s unclear if that includes the more than 2,000 gallons used to make its tires–each tire takes 518 gallons to make.

    It takes around 1,800 gallons of water to grow enough cotton to produce just one pair of regular ol’ blue jeans.

    In order to process a single barrel of beer (32 gallons of booze), 1,500 gallons of water are sucked down.

    This irony shouldn’t be lost on anyone: it takes 1.85 gallons of water to manufacture the plastic for the bottle in the average commercial bottle of water.

    Steel: 62,000 gallons of water
    Cement: 1,360 gallons”

    https://www.treehugger.com/how-many-gallons-of-water-does-it-take-to-make-4858491

    The human body requires about one gallon of water, per day, to survive. A car uses over 100 years worth of that water to come into existence. Hmm.

  30. FamousDrScanlon on Tue, 2nd Mar 2021 2:20 pm 

    Tomorrow Boy here’s your super smart Euro expert with his learned opinion on ‘tomorrow’.

    Will Technology Save Us From Climate Change?

    CLIMATE TALK: WILL TECHNOLOGY SAVE US FROM CLIMATE CHANGE?

    Presented by the Responsive Environments group at the MIT Media Lab

    SPEAKER: Jean-Marc Jancovici, Advisor to the French government on climate change and energy.

    Host: Caroline Jaffe, PhD Student in Responsive Environments

    Moderator: Félix Michaud, PhD student at Sorbonne Université

    Bio:

    Jean-Marc Jancovici is an advisor to the French government on climate change and energy as part of the French High Council for Climate. He is a founding partner of Carbon 4, a Paris-based data consultancy specializing in low carbon transition and the physical risks of climate change (www.carbone4.com). He is also the founder and president of The Shift Project, a Paris-based think tank advocating for a low carbon economy (www.theshiftproject.org). Jean-Marc Jancovici also serves as an associate professor at Mines ParisTech.

    Abstract:

    The thermo-industrial development of our society has been possible due to resource extraction and the transformation of our environment. Unfortunately, it has led to severe environmental consequences that humanity is experiencing around the globe: shifting and unpredictable climate, extreme weather events, and biodiversity collapse. Humanity is paying the consequences for technical and technological progress. Thus, can technology still save us from climate change?

    Jean-Marc Jancovici will address this question through the paradigm of energy. He will first detail how modern society is structured around thermal and nuclear energies, and will then discuss the impact of this structure on global climate and society. Finally, Jean-Marc Jancovici will conclude by exploring the trade-offs between economic growth and sustainable climate stewardship.

    https://www.media.mit.edu/events/will-technology-save-us-from-climate-change

  31. Anonymouse on Tue, 2nd Mar 2021 7:18 pm 

    Still unclear who cloggedcolon is talking to, or trying to convince. Or why it is even still here, considering we ran off his one and only ‘friend’, the missoura madman. Maybe it feels there has be at least one uber-toll fraud around to keep spreading the manure.

    Is that it, cloggfraud?

  32. Biden’s hairplug on Tue, 2nd Mar 2021 9:28 pm 

    Denmark gives the good example once again!

    “Denmark becomes the first European nation to tell Syrian refugees they must return home, saying the country is now safe“

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9316633/Denmark-European-country-Syrian-migrants-country.html

    Hurray! That’s what you do with these darkie gate crashers: give them an enormous kick in the arse back to their miserable turd world turf!

    And anonymouse is next. We’ll create a nice Haiti-2.0 for him in da former US-SE, where he can play basketball all day with da bros.

    In CW2 we don’t need uniforms, that’s for sure!

  33. FamousDrScanlon on Wed, 3rd Mar 2021 3:47 pm 

    “We’ll create a nice Haiti-2.0 for him in da former US-SE, where he can play basketball all day with da bros.”

    clog, there’s no ‘we’ when it comes to you & American white supremacists.

    Are you a christian clog? No, you’re atheist which means American white supremacists will kill you too. You do not understand them. They’ll let the odd atheist slide if he’s useful, like Trump – same selective pragmatism as with Wernher von Braun. All that Trump deifying by American Christian leaders is overcompensation to try & cover up the fact that Trump is not a believer.

    I’m still quite amused at how American white supremacists have made jew tribe lover Trump their champion. Lover & joiner & very publicly – in your face. Trump tribe daddy signalled his jew loyalty in every way possible – conversion, marriage & blood. I guess Trump, like Abraham, could offer to sacrifice one of his grand-kikes up to Yahweh by killing him with a stone knife, but it’d be redundant since Trump has made it perfectly clear that he believes that the best odds of continuing his line (DNA) is with tribe Jew. In 15 to 20 years, Trumps grand-kikes will marry & breed with Israeli Jews & thus the Trump tribe conversion will be 100% complete.

    If you’re an American white supremacist who fell for Trump’s empty promises & deceit, don’t get mad at Trump, he’s just following his evolutionary programming to give his descendants what he believes will be their best chance at survival.

    I think humans might be the only creature that has grandparents who can help their grand-kids survival odds.

    Do these American white supremacist morons really believe Trump would help them in their fervent quest to rid America & the world of Jews/his own grand-kids & daughter?


    Grandparents ‘give humans evolutionary edge’

    The guiding hand of a loving grandparent has given humans an evolutionary advantage in survival, scientists have discovered.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/evolution/8906811/Grandparents-give-humans-evolutionary-edge.html

    Btw, basketball was invented by a white man from Canada to calm his uppity white American students.

  34. Biden's hairplug on Thu, 4th Mar 2021 12:47 am 

    “Are you a christian clog?”

    Uh no, I’m an anti-christ a la Nietzsche:

    https://tinyurl.com/3zv2mv3z

    For me European civilization will be on the road of recovery after the pope has been kicked out of the Vatican and the joint has been redesigned as a museum for classic Greek and Roman art and of course a special exhibition for Arno Breker:

    https://tinyurl.com/srztmpyw

    Call me a pagan neo-Roman and I see the EU as a potential reincarnation of the Roman Empire, after the death of Christianity and its secular offshoot Marxism, of either the Soviet (economic) or American (racial) variety. Both Christianity and Marxism being kosher inventions and hence to be rejected. Regarding Christianity, Marxism and the JQ, let’s say that Pontius Pilate nailed it.

    “No, you’re atheist which means American white supremacists will kill you too.”

    Complete BS. Name me one atheist, “US white supremacists” have killed? These BMI30+ idiots can’t hit a dent in a package of butter. Furthermore, “US white supremacists” don’t exist, it’s a kosher media invention, by people like you. What you DO have is US white closet SEPERATISTS.

    US whitey is a demoralized fat embarrassment of the white race, the bottom of the barrel, ZOG’s cannon fodder and useful idiot. Empire dave is one of them. The only thing he cares about is throwing bombs on white people so he can gloat “we kicked your ass”. Look what happened to him: he went into hiding under a stone somewhere in Missouri. He is too embarrassed to do the bidding of ZOG anymore, after defending it for 8 years on a daily basis. We’re getting somewhere!

    “I’m still quite amused at how American white supremacists have made jew tribe lover Trump their champion.”

    You seriously think I see Trump or Alex Jones as heros or inspiration for Europe? Wrong. What I appreciate about them that they are big monkey wrenches, thrown into the gears of empire. Both are buffoons, but useful buffoons, useful to split up the US and bury it once and for all and put the remains under European custody. America was a mistake, a bunch of colonists, farmers, without the intellectual weight to withstand the kosher disaster, unique in world history.

    “I’m still quite amused at how American white supremacists have made jew tribe lover Trump their champion.”

    He isn’t a jew lover. It is not his fault that his airhead of a daughter brought home a heeb. The fact that he “loves Israel”, doesn’t mean anything. Hitler loved Israel too, after the motto, “every heeb who is in in Israel is not here”. Trump couldn’t attack the jews directly, but indirectly he did, via attacking their media and “wars for Israel”.

    The only significance of Trump is that he organized whitey as a force against ZOG. Not explicitly, but implicitly, by naming the most visible exponent of ZOG, which are the “lying fake news media”. That’s really significant.

    Again, the US is and will remain divided to the bone. Officially it is the globalists against the patriots, but in reality it is about race. Now the waiting is for that Amsterdam jewish diamond cutter to place the chisel onto the US diamond, give it an accurate blow, so the thing will neatly fall apart. I believe that prez Xi could be that diamond cutter, by dealing a blow in East-Asia against the US. Like over Taiwan.

    “Btw, basketball was invented by a white man from Canada to calm his uppity white American students.”

    Of course, blacks never invented anything.

  35. Cloggie on Thu, 4th Mar 2021 1:12 am 

    “VindØ – The World’s First Renewable Energy Island”

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2021/03/04/vindo-the-worlds-first-renewable-energy-island/

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